Big Names On The Move...or Not?

It's never too early to start speculating about who's going where next year...or not.

While a lot of noise was made around the March 4 deadline about players like Jay Bouwmeester, Marian Gaborik, Tomas Kaberle, Chris Pronger and Jason Spezza to name a few, none of them budged...

We've also heard trade rumours at various times this season involving names like Vincent Lecavalier, Ryan Smith, and Scott Gomez, for a variety of reasons. Again, nothing.

In fact, the news of players on the move this year has been more notable for who hasn't moved than who has.

So looking ahead to June/July, the draft and the UFA follies, will we see any major deals being made or cut?

With the salary cap predicted to plunge from $56MM to $50MM in 10/11, GMs are already chattering about how they are going to stay away from long term deals and how they will try to pinch their pennies.

The NHLPAs' Paul Kelly has issued his own veiled warning to players that "show me the money" may be a thing of the past.

Kelly has also stated that more than a few veterans may already have priced themselves out of the market. Chris Neil and Jason Blake come to mind immediately, and there are more who may find themselves unsigned as UFAs, or simply waived/bought out.

The list of UFAs for Summer 2009 is notable in that there are very few 'must haves' in this crop.

Beyond Bouwmeester, the Sedins, Ohlund, Gaborik, Hossa and Franzen (assuming the Wings don't re-sign them), and Komisarek (the chances of him not being retained being very slim), who stands out?
http://nhlnumbers.com/freeagents.php?team=none&pos=none&summer=none&status=ufa

So who do you think will find a new home next year, and where?

Which players whose name keeps popping up, will, contrary to popular notion, stay where they are?

Which players who are not UFAs will be traded, and what will they fetch in return?

And which players may find themselves out of a job next year?

Finally, how will the Senators position themselves, and who are they most likely to trade or sign? Who will be let go?

Looking forward to the thoughts of our esteemed GM Hockey forum members.

Well, a few options all sounded pertinent and viable, but I chose stand pat or "tweak" mainly because of all the fear mongering that has been echoing aboutthe 10%-11% decrease in the cap for the 10-11 season.

Vets will, as mentioned, price themselves out, and hometown discounts will take on a whole new meaning I think.
From a Sens fan perspective, I'll be curious to see what Neil does, as his asking price is ridiculous in my view and I don't think many other teams would oblige him quite frankly.

As for the bigger UFA's for this off-season, I will be very curious to see: 1) if they do sign and more specifically for how much?; and 2) it could be VERY interesting to see if how many stubborn or downright greedy UFA's are on the outside looking by puck drop for the 2009-2010 season.

I think there will be quite a bit of movement, as teams posture to ready themselves for the cap crunch sure to come.

Big contracts will be moved to teams who have the room.

Free agents will start getting less. Probably longer term, less money. Take Hossa, I think he may have shot himself in the foot to a certain extent by signing for less in Detriot.

I don't really see him making more than 7.5 per season, where as he could have had that 9 year 81 million from Edmonton.

I think contracts may be cap-adjusted in the future, or that an amendment to the existing CBA may be made to put that into effect now. Either that, or short-term CBAs and annual uncertainty.

I voted more trades for draft picks will happen, if the cap crunch hits, there is going to be more pressure to build within instead of making big free agency splashes. Mind you, there comes a time, and Ottawa faced it, when if the talent blossoms, they come to a spot where a big raise is demanded, then you are forced to A) retain that talent through a high end multi year deal or B) lose them via RFA/UFA (if an offer sheet, at least you get some compensation)

IMHO more and more teams will move to a model where they may have one big contract up front, one on D and a high-ticket goalie--but probably only two of those, as they seek to populate their roster with younger players developed in their own system.

Chicago is a good example (with Havlat and Campbell), though they now have something of a dilemma choosing between Khabibulin and Huet next year. They have some strong young goalies in their system. Their defense corps is very well stocked, and their forwards are a well-balanced mix.

Columbus is interesting because they have one high-ticket player in Rick Nash. They signed Umberger and Commodore as UFAs but not at huge money. Huselius is the one who might be the odd man out at 4.5MM. If they make the playoffs and do well, Scott Howson might make a big move as he has the cash.

LA is very well positioned to add an impact player either by signing a UFA or taking someone's big contract off their hands. And they have a fistful of draft picks to bargain with--14.

Nashville has 12 picks and a lot of cap room, but not much money to throw around. They might pull off a surprise deal.

Toronto has money to spend. IMHO Burke will try to shake and bake the Leafs. He needs a goalie big time...he needs a lot of stuff big time.

Montreal could totally remake their roster for next year. I believe they will go for Lecavalier and maybe Bouwmeester (and settle for ex-Hab Beauchemin).

Tampa could decide to rebuild around Stamkos (and what they could get for Vinnie). That's what it looks like, as Tocchet is giving him more ice and he is becoming their new leader.

Ken Holland would like to sign Hossa and Franzen, but he might turn around and ink Khabibulin instead.

Gaborik will sign a one-year deal for less money so he can re-establish his market value.

Jason Spezza will be shopped, but will stay in Ottawa because Bryan Murray doesn't like what is offered.

St. Louis is rumoured to be trying to lure Chris Pronger and his VERY rich wife back to her hometown. The Blues are not far from being a serious playoff team.

John Tortorella and Sean Avery will save Glen Sather's bacon in New York--as if Sather could care less--so Sather won't do much in June/July.

Daryl Katz in Edmonton wants to do something. There is talk that Jaromir Jagr wants to join his buddy Ales Hemsky there. But they need to unload Dusty Penner first--maybe on waivers.

Columbus can't afford a big contract. They're going to have a number of them with Brassard, Filatov, Voracek, Mason etc.

Also, the Hawks could have some issue in the future when trying to re-sign Keith, Kane and Toews.

I'm not sure the one goalie, one d-man, one forward-type system is tried and true. Calgary's had it for a while with Phaneuf, Kiprusoff and Iginla, and only this year are they having success with that model, and that's with several high-priced forwards: Iginla, Cammalleri, Jokinen.

Picture this - Tampa wins first overall pick, select John Tavares. They then trade Vinny to Montreal for picks, roster player(s) and prospect(s) - including defenceman P.K. Subban, who is best friends with John Tavares.

Dash wrote:Picture this - Tampa wins first overall pick, select John Tavares. They then trade Vinny to Montreal for picks, roster player(s) and prospect(s) - including defenceman P.K. Subban, who is best friends with John Tavares.

that would make for a scarier Tampa team when you include Stamkos that is already there. Montreal would also get their saviour St. Vinny that they covet so much. The only thing I have against this happening is Montreal getting Vinny and well, if it did happen, that means Eklund would be right on this one, the world will surely end if that is the case.

Dash wrote:Picture this - Tampa wins first overall pick, select John Tavares. They then trade Vinny to Montreal for picks, roster player(s) and prospect(s) - including defenceman P.K. Subban, who is best friends with John Tavares.

Kablam.

I can see it. Montreal should overpay for Vinny, IMO. It's the best way forward for them. Then they can carry on picking anglophones and US high school kids in the first round and end up where they are now, all over again.

How can you have more trades of contracts for picks if everyone wants picks? There are two sides to every trade and that simply can't happen, unless there is a certainly class of teams that specifically don't want picks.

I see a lot more players on entry-level contracts, which means a of mid-level veterans looking for work in Europe like the lockout year.

I see a comeback of the second contract (i.e. not jumping from entry level to $4M long-term).

I see fewer (none?) offer sheets given to RFAs. Picks are just too valuable.

Quite a few of the big contracts signed in the last 2 seasons are front-end loaded. That means that a cheap team with a low cap can actually afford some of these UFAs. Just not sure when.

There are also contracts with multiple signing bonuses. For example, Heatley gets $5+5M this year and $4+4M next year. If he is moved, who pays the signing bonus? What is the advantage of splitting $10M into a $5M signing bonus and a $5M salary? Dos the bonus escape the escrow trim? Or is it something weird where the current team pays the signing bonus even if the player is moved? I really don't know what these bonuses (Alfie has the same) are all about, except maybe they allow for total salary to drop quicker (in Alfie's case his last year's salary is something like $1M, so he can retire and not miss much).

SeawaySensFan wrote:

Dash wrote:Picture this - Tampa wins first overall pick, select John Tavares. They then trade Vinny to Montreal for picks, roster player(s) and prospect(s) - including defenceman P.K. Subban, who is best friends with John Tavares.

Kablam.

I can see it. Montreal should overpay for Vinny, IMO. It's the best way forward for them. Then they can carry on picking anglophones and US high school kids in the first round and end up where they are now, all over again.

you know, when you explain like you did SSF, it doesn't sound half bad at all, because St. Vinny alone is not going to deliver the cup to the Canadians, they should have learned by now you need a team effort, much like Boston, SJ, or Detroit have going right now. (if the goaltending holds up in Detroit)

Montreal would have to give up too much for Vinny that they wouldn't be a very competitive team, but I think they'd still do it.

Dash wrote:Montreal would have to give up too much for Vinny that they wouldn't be a very competitive team, but I think they'd still do it.

for sure they would do it, Gainey may be forced into complete desperation this year after possibly missing the playoffs or another early playoff exit, anything short of the cup this year is disappointment for Montreal and I am sure he knows it. he is not dealing from a position of bargaining strength here.

Dash wrote:Montreal would have to give up too much for Vinny that they wouldn't be a very competitive team, but I think they'd still do it.

My point is, in Montreal's case, overpaying is a bargain for a francophone superstar. They can undo a lot of stupidity with that move. Let's face it, their recent success is an anomaly when you look at the last decade.