Game Day: Montreal Canadiens @ Ottawa Senators - 7:00pm ET, Thurs. Nov. 7th, 2013

NEELY wrote:

SeawaySensFan wrote:

NEELY wrote:Haha keep em coming... keep reeeeeeeeeeeeeaching a little more.  Eventually it might be true.

Best way for things to always be true is to keep flip-flopping like how +/- goes from useless stat to gold standard of performance indicators to suit your assessment of certain players. Well, in your case, player. It's an interesting fixation. Almost as disturbing as W.P. Rager's interest in Curtis Lazar's young squeeze.

Pretty sure I explained why within the team context like Ev said, it's a useful stat.  Why is Kyle Turris +10 or 11 and Spezza -2?  Bad luck?  They play for the same team.  Don't see me comparing teams and players on other teams to Spezza do you?  In house it's a legit stat because +/- is a team stat.

I've actually always considered it a legit stat. Why the difference between players on the same team? Aside from that players overall performance? Linemates, including D pairing, opposition skill and strategy, are they always checking against certain players? Are they more passive against others? More than one factor and I'm sure you know them all.

I don't consider it a legit stat because of guys like Tom Priesing or Chris Phillips 3 years ago. Phillips was -35 or something insane like that but it was a BS stat when looking at the rest of the league. Phillips has always been solid defensively and a guy like Tom Priesing could be +45 or w/e it was and he was barely an NHL D man. +/- is a reflection of the team and that's all it is... or goaltending which is a variable within the stat you can't account for.

Spezza vs Turris right now in the overall picture... esh it isn't close. Spezza's +/- vs Turris' is a pretty good reflection of exactly what line is struggling. The TOI stat is also pretty concerning because being out there 10-16 seconds long per shift than everyone else is an enormous issue and there is no positive to draw from that stat alone.

no one is arguing turris' line has outperformed offensively and defensively vs spezza's line. The emphasis on the +/- is accurate but some on here are reading a little too much into it. To start the game, turris' line was hemmed into our zone because of a clear giveaway by turris. No attention paid to that. Also I paid close attention to see who our dmen were when spezz' line was hemmed into our zone and more often than not it wasn't karlsson on the ice (surprise!). Just saying being hemmed into our zone isn't the clearest definition of who is performing better, it's still a team game. How many times against columbus were the sens hemmed into their zone because of giveaways by lehner?

Spezza's problem is keeping the puck in the offensive zone and that's where he and his linemates gotta improve vastly. No protection, no speed, nothing. Need to stick conacher with him for a while now.

NEELY wrote:Spezza vs Turris right now in the overall picture... esh it isn't close.  Spezza's +/- vs Turris' is a pretty good reflection of exactly what line is struggling.  The TOI stat is also pretty concerning because being out there 10-16 seconds long per shift than everyone else is an enormous issue and there is no positive to draw from that stat alone.

Anyway, I don't even disagree with the Turris / Spezza comparison. Put it this way, put any player in the NHL, including Turris and excluding The Cros, in the exact same situation Spezza is in right now and you won't see much if any improvement.

Michallica wrote:no one is arguing turris' line has outperformed offensively and defensively vs spezza's line.  The emphasis on the +/- is accurate but some on here are reading a little too much into it.  To start the game, turris' line was hemmed into our zone because of a clear giveaway by turris.  No attention paid to that.  Also I paid close attention to see who our dmen were when spezz' line was hemmed into our zone and more often than not it wasn't karlsson on the ice (surprise!).  Just saying being hemmed into our zone isn't the clearest definition of who is performing better, it's still a team game.  How many times against columbus were the sens hemmed into their zone because of giveaways by lehner?

Spezza's problem is keeping the puck in the offensive zone and that's where he and his linemates gotta improve vastly.  No protection, no speed, nothing.  Need to stick conacher with him for a while now.

You don't pay attention a blip in the radar, you pay attention to something that happens over and over and over. If Turris line was constantly in their zone people would talk about it.

As for Karlsson, you put him with the guys that are scoring... can't do much about that.

SeawaySensFan wrote:

NEELY wrote:Spezza vs Turris right now in the overall picture... esh it isn't close.  Spezza's +/- vs Turris' is a pretty good reflection of exactly what line is struggling.  The TOI stat is also pretty concerning because being out there 10-16 seconds long per shift than everyone else is an enormous issue and there is no positive to draw from that stat alone.

Anyway, I don't even disagree with the Turris / Spezza comparison. Put it this way, put any player in the NHL, including Turris and excluding The Cros, in the exact same situation Spezza is in right now and you won't see much if any improvement.

What situation is that? He's been paired with everyone on the team beside Turris, lol, they are getting nothing out of him. I really don't think you appreciate just how slow and weak Spezza is right now. You could throw probably 2 dozen guys or more in the NHL where Spezza is right now and they would be doing a better job. There's a reason Spezza keeps stopping on the rush to avoid the check and to try and create space... it's because he's slow and he can't find the space. Seriously man, watch the game a little closer because Spezza is bringing his line down, no one else.

Michallica wrote:no one is arguing turris' line has outperformed offensively and defensively vs spezza's line.  The emphasis on the +/- is accurate but some on here are reading a little too much into it.  To start the game, turris' line was hemmed into our zone because of a clear giveaway by turris.  No attention paid to that.  Also I paid close attention to see who our dmen were when spezz' line was hemmed into our zone and more often than not it wasn't karlsson on the ice (surprise!).  Just saying being hemmed into our zone isn't the clearest definition of who is performing better, it's still a team game.  How many times against columbus were the sens hemmed into their zone because of giveaways by lehner?

Spezza's problem is keeping the puck in the offensive zone and that's where he and his linemates gotta improve vastly.  No protection, no speed, nothing.  Need to stick conacher with him for a while now.

Spezza's problem is speed... he has none. Ottawa wants to play a fast transition game along with possession and Spezza isn't capable of playing it right now. Truth of the matter is Spezza would benefit more playing on a team that does play a defense first system because he would be sheltered in that system. A fast, 200 foot game Spezza can't do it.

NEELY wrote:

SeawaySensFan wrote:

NEELY wrote:Spezza vs Turris right now in the overall picture... esh it isn't close.  Spezza's +/- vs Turris' is a pretty good reflection of exactly what line is struggling.  The TOI stat is also pretty concerning because being out there 10-16 seconds long per shift than everyone else is an enormous issue and there is no positive to draw from that stat alone.

Anyway, I don't even disagree with the Turris / Spezza comparison. Put it this way, put any player in the NHL, including Turris and excluding The Cros, in the exact same situation Spezza is in right now and you won't see much if any improvement.

What situation is that?  He's been paired with everyone on the team beside Turris, lol, they are getting nothing out of him.  I really don't think you appreciate just how slow and weak Spezza is right now.  You could throw probably 2 dozen guys or more in the NHL where Spezza is right now and they would be doing a better job.  There's a reason Spezza keeps stopping on the rush to avoid the check and to try and create space... it's because he's slow and he can't find the space.  Seriously man, watch the game a little closer because Spezza is bringing his line down, no one else.

That's part of the problem.

I watch the game just fine only with less bias than you. Spezza has his issues for sure but it's nowhere near as bad as you say. Not by a longshot.

Has nothing to do with "being bad". It has to do with injuries having caught up with him (bad back, knee, and groin) and him bring down team speed and the speed of his wingers. I have always been able to praise Spezza when I believe he's played well and even went as far as saying Spezza was the right choice and only choice for captain. Right now, he can't keep up during 5 on 5 play or be effective in the least.

IMO, the way the team plays and has been built it doesn't suit Spezza in the least and he is struggling big time within that team system. Any #1 or 2 center who has any speed at all would be a better fit in Ottawa right now than Spezza and there is a lot of evidence pointing towards that.

NEELY wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:

NEELY wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:Are people here trying to tell me that the Sens have played well for the majority of the year so far?

Had some good shifts, had some bad shifts.  Out west wasn't great but they are cleaning it up a little and getting better each game while on a current 2 game win streak with some easier games coming up... they haven't played their best hockey though.

Honestly, you take Spezza out of that lineup and at 5 on 5 the Sens are a 200 foot team start to finish.  

Let's not forget our D, which was a total shambles the first several games.

Again, I said it then and I'll say it now I think it has more to do with the lack of support the forwards were giving and them cheating up the boards on the breakout.  It's stopped for the most part except 1 line basically.

That's not what I saw when I tried to analyze a couple of the glaring examples. Spezza was back but covered, Conacher was possibly free but the pass went to Spezza (bad pass); in the other example pas went to Conacher abd he promptly lost it. I don't remember what Zibanejad was doing on either play but given how he sat on the bench until the last minute of the game I think PMac didn't like his game. Whatever, he hasn't been there long enough to explain all the problems from before.

Here's my take on things. Spezza is not skating well for whatever reason (lazy, tired -- women weaken legs and all that, injured). When Spezza skates he is usually carrying the puck, so Conacher/Greening/whoever just run for the far blue line. Now that Spezza is not skating well you've got a problem because the wingers are too far (for the likes of Gryba/Phillips/Boro to pass to successfully), and Spezza is hemmed inside his own zone and covered.

Until Spezza's skating is back to average the wingers need to hang back a bit more to provide alternate targets for passes from the back-end.

Also, as I noticed from the shift charts of the Habs game, the Turris line was spending most of their shifts skating with Karlsson/Cowen. I can't really say whether this has been happening a lot or just this one game.

Edit: just checked back to the Columbus game, same thing. Spezza is on with Gryba/Phillips while Turris is on with Karlsson/Cowen. Not all the time, of course, but generally how the period starts and if they get into any kind of rhythm. PP excepted, of course, as Karlsson is on for most of the 2 minutes and Spezza is on for at least the first half.

tim1_2 wrote:Are people here trying to tell me that the Sens have played well for the majority of the year so far?

Our forwards have been decent IMO, about 75% of them have been fine.
Defense has been awful though, but hard to say if it's they are too slow or if the forwards are too quick to get out of the zone, because our D just pass the puck to one another until a forechecker strips them off the puck.
Our goalies are still keeping us in games.

NEELY wrote:
You don't pay attention a blip in the radar, you pay attention to something that happens over and over and over.  If Turris line was constantly in their zone people would talk about it.

As for Karlsson, you put him with the guys that are scoring... can't do much about that.

Really a bad analogy, because that is exactly what you do -- pay attention to blips on radars. Could be an enemy plane, ship, submarine, torpedo or what not. You don't pay attention to it and you're dead; of course sometimes your kids gets kidnapped by a bunch of guys wearing fake beards who then set your raft on fire, but more often than no you pay attention to blips on radars.

NEELY wrote:
What situation is that?  He's been paired with everyone on the team beside Turris, lol, they are getting nothing out of him.  I really don't think you appreciate just how slow and weak Spezza is right now.  You could throw probably 2 dozen guys or more in the NHL where Spezza is right now and they would be doing a better job.  There's a reason Spezza keeps stopping on the rush to avoid the check and to try and create space... it's because he's slow and he can't find the space.  Seriously man, watch the game a little closer because Spezza is bringing his line down, no one else.

I can't argue about Spezza being slow and ineffective, but hold on there, saying "Spezza is bringing his line down, no one else." He's played with Greening, who has 3 assists in 16 games -- he's been brutal; Neil is Neil, not a top-six and one of the few players on the Sens who cannot keep up with Spezza (he overcompensates and ends up going offside all the time). Conacher, by your own admission, hasn't been playing well. Michalek, again, from your own words, is done. Spezza, right now, is not strong/fast enough to carry players who are not working. But he is still an excellent puck handler, still one of the best passers in the league, and still has a great shot. So *yes* you need to give him wingers who will help him because that *will be* to the benefit of the team.

wprager wrote:

NEELY wrote:
What situation is that?  He's been paired with everyone on the team beside Turris, lol, they are getting nothing out of him.  I really don't think you appreciate just how slow and weak Spezza is right now.  You could throw probably 2 dozen guys or more in the NHL where Spezza is right now and they would be doing a better job.  There's a reason Spezza keeps stopping on the rush to avoid the check and to try and create space... it's because he's slow and he can't find the space.  Seriously man, watch the game a little closer because Spezza is bringing his line down, no one else.

I can't argue about Spezza being slow and ineffective, but hold on there, saying "Spezza is bringing his line down, no one else."  He's played with Greening, who has 3 assists in 16 games -- he's been brutal; Neil is Neil, not a top-six and one of the few players on the Sens who cannot keep up with Spezza (he overcompensates and ends up going offside all the time).  Conacher, by your own admission, hasn't been playing well.  Michalek, again, from your own words, is done.  Spezza, right now, is not strong/fast enough to carry players who are not working.  But he is still an excellent puck handler, still one of the best passers in the league, and still has a great shot.  So *yes* you need to give him wingers who will help him because that *will be* to the benefit of the team.

My point was Spezza hasn't worked with anyone. Not Ryan, not Michalek, Greening, Conacher, whoever. IMO yes, Spezza is bring down his line when it's 5 on 5 and it has everything to do with speed. He's slowing things down in an up tempo system.

As for the forwards not coming back and pinching up, I was talking about earlier in the season. Positionally they have seemed to figure it out and the shots are down a little as well as the scoring chances from the beginning of the year. It's going to be a process to get everything down pat with a D core as young as the Sens one. Spezza isn't usually out of position either, he's just slow getting there and getting back to where he needs to be. Again, for whatever reason or excuse, he cant keep up on a consistent basis in the Sens system. Right now you are paying 7 mil for a PP specialist.

wprager wrote:

NEELY wrote:
You don't pay attention a blip in the radar, you pay attention to something that happens over and over and over.  If Turris line was constantly in their zone people would talk about it.

As for Karlsson, you put him with the guys that are scoring... can't do much about that.

Really a bad analogy, because that is exactly what you do -- pay attention to blips on radars.  Could be an enemy plane, ship, submarine, torpedo or what not.  You don't pay attention to it and you're dead; of course sometimes your kids gets kidnapped by a bunch of guys wearing fake beards who then set your raft on fire, but more often than no you pay attention to blips on radars.

Lol that's what I thought as well. Bad analogy, but I got the gist of what he was saying. Basically looking at consistency and average as opposed to outliers.

Meh, w/e, it's true. You don't look at one bad shift or even a couple, you look at what keeps coming up over and over.

NEELY wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:Are people here trying to tell me that the Sens have played well for the majority of the year so far?

Had some good shifts, had some bad shifts.  Out west wasn't great but they are cleaning it up a little and getting better each game while on a current 2 game win streak with some easier games coming up... they haven't played their best hockey though.

Honestly, you take Spezza, Michalek, Neil out of that lineup and at 5 on 5 the Sens are a 200 foot team start to finish.  

FYP.