DAY #15: Sens @ Predators - 8:00pm - Tuesday Nov. 10 2015

While Goodie, Gord and Syl were visiting Graceland, the Grand Ole Opry and tweeting picture of cigarette machines, the Sens were -- well, not exactly sure what they were doing, but they certainly have a lot to think about. Having been thoroughly outplayed in the latter stages of two consecutive games against teams that played the night before, the Sens have a lot of questions that need answering.

Is the Cowen-Borowiecki pairing working? Short answer, no, they've been awful for most of the season. Boro is a good bottom pairing guy but he's not good enough to play his wrong side. The two, together, are not the best option for the first PK unit, and the Sens' dismal PK stats bear that out (75.5%, 28th in the league).

Is there hope for the Sens' power play? 13.5% gets you 25th place in the league, but half of their PP goals came in that one game against the Leafs. Take that game out of the equation and they are dead last in the league. While I'm not suggesting they should be leading the league, with the likes of Karlsson, Turris, Stone, Hoffman they really should be doing better.

How is the Sens' conditioning? As mentioned already, their last two games were played against tired opponents, yet they were badly outplayed in the third period and OT. Are Cameron's practices too hard? Not hard enough? Or is conditioning not the issue?

I don't pretend to have answers to any of the questions, but if Cameron thinks solutions will come to him via trades he's not paying attention to his owner and GM. The "fix" has to come from within and there are certainly things that can be done:
- Cowen/Boro as a pairing does not work; Wideman should replace Boro on that right side
- Which is not to say that Boro should be sitting, but one of him, Weircioch and Cowen definitely should be
- Winning face offs is important for a supposedly puck-possession team; replacing Zack Smith with Lazar (who has spent most of his time playing wing) was not the smartest move. Smith, despite some brain-headed penalties, has played pretty well, actually. He certainly would not have been my first choice for a fourth liner to sit out.
- Karlsson has to start playing up to expectations. He hasn't been bad, but he certainly has to be better for this team to improve.

GO SENS GO!!!

Looks like Wideman is sitting and Ceci is back. The Preds are real good...but so is .

Cameron is going to get himself fired just like MacLean did, isn't he. Gotta play Wideman on that third pairing instead of Boro on his wrong side. It won't fix everything but it's a start.

I swear to God I posted the above before I saw Mendes re-tween this Yost tweet:

TSN: Dave Cameron's Ottawa Senators are starting to look a lot like Paul MacLean's Ottawa Senators -- http://www.tsn.ca/1.391425

wprager wrote:Cameron is going to get himself fired just like MacLean did, isn't he.  Gotta play Wideman on that third pairing instead of Boro on his wrong side.  It won't fix everything but it's a start.  

I don't think so personally. MacLean sucked at the end, he was playing over the hill vets over the young talent, he was mishandling the Captain and elite star player. This is Wideman, a roving 7th D-man being sat for Wiercioch and Cowen - nevermind Boro. That's not a stretch really as you want desperately for Wier to have the success he had at the end of the season and you want Cowen to continue his solid play (last two games aside).

I don't really see an issue, although I think it's a matter of time until Wideman takes out one of the 3 aforementioned players.

I'm not an advanced stats guy, but Cowen's was horrific last year, what's it at this year is the question?

An actually correct and well-written article from Yost. It helps that his take agrees with mine, of course

This is exactly the kind of data point you want if you’re Cameron. It’s an easy fix. Simply breaking up this duo for any of a number of combinations should rectify some of what’s killing this team at 5-on-5, if only because the numbers they are posting are (a) almost impossibly bad; and (b) either near-last or dead-last in every major statistical category.

He is, of course, talking about Cowen/Boro. Interestingly, the Sens record is better on the road, where the opposing coach would surely match up his best forwards against the Sens' worst pairing, would he not?

I'll admit, a major issue is that a)Boro's not a huge puck mover to begin with and b)playing his off side limits what he can do with the puck further

Everybody's been saying Cowen/Boro is a bad pairing for a couple weeks now. Why he continues to put them together is truly a mystery, but yeah, it's similar to what P-MacDaddy was doing.

He's probably doing it because it's not very relevant how your third pairing does.

I agree, e third pairing should have wideman on it. This is preferential treatment because boro has fought for that spot and they want to give cowen a chance to succeed and not shatter his fragile confidence. Not at all what would make us better but whatever.
I hope BM makes a move and we clear up some of the logjam on this team because it's pretty bad what we are seeing on the back end.

SpezDispensed wrote:

wprager wrote:Cameron is going to get himself fired just like MacLean did, isn't he.  Gotta play Wideman on that third pairing instead of Boro on his wrong side.  It won't fix everything but it's a start.  

I don't think so personally.  MacLean sucked at the end, he was playing over the hill vets over the young talent, he was mishandling the Captain and elite star player.  This is Wideman, a roving 7th D-man being sat for Wiercioch and Cowen - nevermind Boro.  That's not a stretch really as you want desperately for Wier to have the success he had at the end of the season and you want Cowen to continue his solid play (last two games aside).

I don't really see an issue, although I think it's a matter of time until Wideman takes out one of the 3 aforementioned players.

I'm not an advanced stats guy, but Cowen's was horrific last year, what's it at this year is the question?

Statistically speaking, the Cowen-Boro pair has the worst CF% of all pairs in the NHL who have played 100 minutes or more. Of course you could easily see this without statistics to back it up, that they've been horrible, it's just that the stats show that they are actually league-worst "horrible" and not just the garden-variety "horrible". Of course CF% can be seen as an offensive stat, perhaps, but the 2/74 pairing is really bad in the defensive end as well. The Sens have the 3rd worst PK in the league; when you account for the fact that goaltending has been very good, this is really, really bad. And much of the time 2-74 is the first PK unit.

Cameron is showing the same stubbornness that MacLean had before he got fired. I've said before, fixing the bottom pairing will not fix everything, but it would be a hell of a start. Right now Wideman is a better choice than Boro playing his wrong side. If you want to keep Boro's hits and blocked shots in the lineup, then sit Cowen. If you think we still need Cowen's size, then move him up to replace Weircioch. Just don't play Borowiecki on his wrong side, and please don't ever put 2-7 out as a pairing.

On the forward side of things, the top line was going pretty well with Prince up there, but in the third period, clinging to that one goal lead, he benched Prince and put in Lazar! Lazar had been struggling all game long (no wonder, playing center on the fourth line means new role and new linemates) while Prince was flying. Cameron went with what he thought was the safe choice. Who is it used to say "Safe is dead"? Was it Torts? That's exactly what happened.

Looking at the shift charts, guess who he had out in the last shift (32 seconds) when Carolina scored the tying goal. Weircioch-Borowiecki were the defensive pair, Michalek-Zibanejad-Chiasson were the forwards. A shift earlier (37 seconds earlier) Weircioch was out for more than 2 minutes (131 second shift -- I believe there was an icing involved, but still). Weircioch must have been gassed, meanwhile Cowen did not play the last 7 minutes at all. I dunno, maybe Cowen would have been a better choice at that point in time. All they had to do was hold the fort for 36 seconds!

Can you show me who the two centers are on that shift? Coaching 101 says you get two centers out there for a defensive zone face off later in the game, nursing a lead. Zibanejad did not get thrown out or anything but that kind of lack of attention to detail is a little disturbing.

And now, you have a kid in Wideman that just scored his first NHL goal, and he's going back to the press box in favor of a guy who was benched for the second half of the last period. WTF is going on?

SpezDispensed wrote:I'll admit, a major issue is that a)Boro's not a huge puck mover to begin with and b)playing his off side limits what he can do with the puck further

It limits everything. It limits his effectiveness, it limits his blocked shots, and it *should* limit his hits. Except he compensates by going further out to deliver hits, putting himself out of position in the process. And Cowen is not good enough to make up for that.

tim1_2 wrote:Everybody's been saying Cowen/Boro is a bad pairing for a couple weeks now.  Why he continues to put them together is truly a mystery, but yeah, it's similar to what P-MacDaddy was doing.

They've been horrible for more than a couple of weeks.

Ev wrote:He's probably doing it because it's not very relevant how your third pairing does.  

But they are also the first PK pairing.

And it *is* relevant how the third pairing is doing because they still play 12 minutes (or more, with PK time). And when you end up benching Cowen you have to juggle the other pairings.

Play Boro as the 8th D and occasional 4th liner, a la Schubert. Put him out as a D-man occasionally, against the other team's slower players.

Every pairing does not need to be great, but one of them needs to be able to move the puck, even if only for 10-12 minutes a night.

Flo The Action wrote:I agree, e third pairing should have wideman on it. This is preferential treatment because boro has fought for that spot and they want to give cowen a chance to succeed and not shatter his fragile confidence. Not at all what would make us better but whatever.
I hope BM makes a move and we clear up some of the logjam on this team because it's pretty bad what we are seeing on the back end.

So play 74-45 and sit 2. If you are willing to sit him out for half the third period, why not the next game as well?