The Sens and What IFs

Cronie wrote:he doesn't do that consistently though SF (Spezza backchecking).

Maybe it's as simple as Spezza realizing and figuring out the math that he is the ONLY HUGE contract with no NTC yet; herego, it's quite simple: Dos Vydanya Spezza.
Because the last 2-3 games, Spezza has been playing a certain edge I haven't seen from him since....since...well, EVER!!

am agreed on that one, he rather float around the neutral zone, throwing the no look drop passes, however, let's hope what you say is true, he realizes he is the odd person out and if he wants to stay with his buddy heater, he has to play a more complete game.

Seeing how Murray has operated as GM here is what I suspect happens. No big UFA signing no major salary gets moved but we move up in the draft by flipping our 1st and one of our 2nds. We likely end up with an NHL ready player who will be very cheap. Karlsson possibly steps in next year also and we fight for the final playoff spot in 09/10.

Cap'n Clutch wrote:Seeing how Murray has operated as GM here is what I suspect happens. No big UFA signing no major salary gets moved but we move up in the draft by flipping our 1st and one of our 2nds. We likely end up with an NHL ready player who will be very cheap. Karlsson possibly steps in next year also and we fight for the final playoff spot in 09/10.

in terms of other scenarios, yours is the one that makes the most logical sense and would be the easiest to pull off, I don't see NYI wanting to trade down, but maybe Atlanta would, it's pure hearsay, but maybe the Sens drop enough to get the 2nd possible pick anyway, or maybe even the improbable, but I would fall off my chair if this happens, we win the lottery with our less than 7 percent chance or whatever it is.

asq2 wrote:Technically, I believe that you can be over the cap during the off-season.

However, especially if we dealt Spezza, there'd be no reason for JayBo to sign here. Apparently they're good friends.

But apart from that, we'd only improve marginally, so the only reason JayBo would sign would be for money, and in that case I don't want him.

Yes, there is a time limit but I believe that it's some time in October, after puck drop. I believe New Jersey was in that position last year.

Also, just as technically, you can be over the cap, you just end up paying some sort of luxury tax. I'm pretty sure there will be a few teams in that situation in two years' time.

There is no question that, if we move Spezza to acquire J-Bo we will improve on the back end and drop significantly on offense. But the drop would be from the goal totals last year and the year before, not the goal totals of this year.

The biggest issue I see is trying to convince J-Bo to come here. I'm glad I don't have that job because, frankly, if I did I'd say "Yeah, you're right. Stay away from here for a couple of years". If, as speculated, Spezza is a good friend of Jay then our one and only hope of landing him is to keep Spezza. It's a Catch-22, for sure.

Doing a little math we have $51.68M committed to (currently on-toster) players, including Emery's buy out. This gives us 11 forwards, 7 D and 2 goalies.

Slide in Peter Regin at $630K and re-sign Comrie for $2.5M (possibly optimistic) and we are up to $52.3M. I don't know what the cap will be but it's not going to be higher than this year ($56.6?) so let's just assume that we can't go higher than $52.3 to allow for a cap decrease and injuries. We now have to start subtracting.

Assuming we want to make toom for J-Bo we would need to move a defenseman. Start with Lee -- move/drop him and re-sign Bell (who's a UFA, by the way) for $675K, saving $600K. It's a start. Move Smith to save another $2.6M. Move/drop Schubert and replace with Bass to save another $370K.

We now have $3.7M. Need more, way more.

Drop/move Kelly and replace with Zubov for another $1.275. I really like Shannon (who's RFA, by the way) but too many small guys in the lineup is not good. Perhaps we let Comrie go and re-sign Shannon for $800K, saving another $1.7M. That brings us to $6.675M Getting close, real close.

We can play around a bit more, for example moving Phillips instead of Smith for another $900K. Both are shutdown guys, Phillips is younger but not young. Hate to lose a lifer but that's life. Picard's $800K can (should?) be replaced with a callup from Bingo to save another $200-300K (M. Karlsson -- who's RFA, btw, Kudelka, Carkner). Perhaps there's a bit more tweaking to do among the forwards -- replace Ruutu's $1.3M with, oh, I dunno, Daugavins or Weller, saving another $600K or so.

We can certainly clear $7.5-8M for J-Bo without moving any of the top-four contracts, but that leaves us pretty weak in top-six (Vermette replaced with Regin, Comrie replaced with Shannon) and bottom six (Ruutu and Kelly replaced with Bass and Daugavins).

The bottom-six, meh, who cares. It's not like we've counted on 3rd and 4th line production for the last six seasons. And, yes, we seriously reduce our PK efficiency by losing Vermette, Kelly and Ruutu, but if we play a more disciplined game and reduce our PK times from 14 minutes pergame to 6 we can then lean more heavily on our remaining PK-ers and add some new recruits.

Top-six is interesting. Certanily Regin can do no worse than Vermette has done this year, especially if he plays his minutes? Then again we need what Vermette brought the last few years (and then some). Shanno versus Comrie could very well be a wash. I'd still expect Comrie to put up more points, sinmply because he has shown that capacity over many years in the league. But there's certainly hope.

On D, even without adding J-Bo we would be not too different from where we are today. We'd lose a shut down guy (Smith or Phillips) and replaced two underachievers (Lee and Picard) with Bell and someone even more unproven. It could get scary but at first glance it doesn't look like it would be much worse than before. By adding J-Bo we would instantly get better all around.

It's doable.

Oh, and we can't forget about re-signing Elliott. He's an RFA next
season and is making $942K now. Could we re-sign him for $1M and move
Auld? Maybe, but maybe his agent will ask for more. And maybe someone
throws an offer sheet at him. Hard to tell.

Neely4Life wrote:Didnt say that, but Spezza is a problem here and even if they dont sign J Bo, he is on his way out.

100% you need to trade Spezza before taking a shot at him as a UFA, but hey, I guess Murray's words are not enough to convince people. Its Spezza or Heatley out the door, and unless Heatley has asked for a trade, its Spezza out the door.

Again, Vermette's words leaving Ottawa is exactly what everyone who has left this team has said... and who is left? Weather people want to believe it or not, or just choose to ignore it, thats fine, but Spezza is the problem in Ottawa with a sub-par defense.

Enlighten me. What exact words did he say that tells you there's cancer in that room, and who else has said the same?

From what I know Vermette said that he really hated leaving, because they are all great guys and he lvoed playing with them. At the same time he stated the obvious, that this group did not perform to reasonable expctations, abd that there's something wrong. That "something" could be goaltending, coaching, drinking water or, yes, chemistry. "Chemistry" is that great undefinable quantity which has this nasty habit of turning on or off (remember the chemistry when our three top centres went down? instant on). Spezza getting into a fight with Phaneuf to come to Heatley's defense -- that could flip the switch just as easily. Reading Vermette's comments could be another switch-flipper. You just don't know.

But, sorry or the rant, let's get back on topic. Who else said this when leaving?

This is what happens if we trade Spezza:

And then this:

wprager wrote:And then this:

damn, I better start on my bomb shelter in case this does happen, going to get more kraft dinner and canned beans now lol.

Interesting thoughts on how to clear space Pragues except that's a lot of moves to make. Can they all be accomplished?

Cap'n Clutch wrote:Interesting thoughts on how to clear space Pragues except that's a lot of moves to make. Can they all be accomplished?

No, obviously not. I'm just disproving that you have to move one of the big two in order to clear enough space.

In order to get J-Bo we will have to trade ...


P.S. I'm having way too much fun with these animated gifs. And in case anyone wonders, I'm not at work. All four kids are in various states of sick, getting sicker or getting better.

Neely4Life wrote:
Spezza was phenominal tonight, best he has played all year. That said, he got his break early and thats when he has his good games, if he doesnt get those breaks, he quits. Good for him and the Sens for having a great game, but having 1 good game and then 5 bad ones isnt what a 7 million dollar player does.

Sure, if Spezza played like this even 75% of the time (and I dont think that is asking too much at all) then he could be an elite player in the NHL. 1 game wont change my mind, nor will 1 week, or 1 month. He has to show it all the time, thats why he is paid like he is.

Then please explain, a couple of games ago, when Spezza was reportedly (I didn't see the game) having a phenomenal second half of the third period. That doesn't sound like what you said at all.

And, yes, before you remind me, that half a period was too little, too late, but it still disproves your assertion.

Again, I don't necessarily disagree with what you say, but I absolutely abhor all of these absolutes: never, always, no way. Just like McGuire was an Donkey for saying that Elliott (with fewer than 20 games in the league) will never, ever be a number one starter in the NHL; just like he said (last year) that Price is absolutely, no question about it, a top NHL goalie (with fewer than 20 games under *his* belt at the time).

wprager wrote:

Neely4Life wrote:
Spezza was phenominal tonight, best he has played all year. That said, he got his break early and thats when he has his good games, if he doesnt get those breaks, he quits. Good for him and the Sens for having a great game, but having 1 good game and then 5 bad ones isnt what a 7 million dollar player does.

Sure, if Spezza played like this even 75% of the time (and I dont think that is asking too much at all) then he could be an elite player in the NHL. 1 game wont change my mind, nor will 1 week, or 1 month. He has to show it all the time, thats why he is paid like he is.

Then please explain, a couple of games ago, when Spezza was reportedly (I didn't see the game) having a phenomenal second half of the third period. That doesn't sound like what you said at all.

And, yes, before you remind me, that half a period was too little, too late, but it still disproves your assertion.

Again, I don't necessarily disagree with what you say, but I absolutely abhor all of these absolutes: never, always, no way. Just like McGuire was an Donkey for saying that Elliott (with fewer than 20 games in the league) will never, ever be a number one starter in the NHL; just like he said (last year) that Price is absolutely, no question about it, a top NHL goalie (with fewer than 20 games under *his* belt at the time).

just to add to McGuire, he also said Gerber hasn't got what it takes to be an NHL starter, he really makes himself look like an Donkey monkey some times. Price is a joke and if Montreal wants to have any chance of getting in the playoffs, they bench price and play halak 95% of the remaining games.

Neely4Life wrote:

Dawg's Wife wrote:

Neely4Life wrote:
He has defently not improved this year, at all... again, I think waiting for him to mature is a bigger risk than anything because some people never do and there is no reason to think he will. Spezza with an NTC for 6 years with Heatley, there wont be any help coming on the blue line unless you expect a 20 year old, 165lb kid to do the job.

Money needs to be moved up front, J Bo or not, way too much committed there.

Now that I agree with. I don't necessarily agree with your disdain for Spezza, nor do I believe half of the crap rumors that are out there, but I will agree that all that money up front doesn't do us any good. Especially 3 years down the road if the cap drops.

I will agree that moving Spezza is needed, but just to clear the cap space. But I guess at the end of the day does it matter what the reason is. Whether it's because you don't like him like N4L or you think the cap commitment is too much like me he has to go.

I hope he's lights out for the rest of the season then, that way the package coming back will be much more.

If Heatley is moved, the risk of having Spezza here is reduced so much its not even funny. Spezza and Heatley being here is nearly impossible to get around, especially if they are both content playing the way they are.

I cant stand Spezza as a player and I def know how little respect he has from his team mates and others in the NHL. He has to earn a lot more considering what he has been given. The Sens made a HUGE committment to him, and thus far he has spit in the teams face and the fans.

At the end of the day though, Heatley is a better player and a 50 goal scorer is a lot more rare than a playmaking center.

Heatley was not a 50-goal scorer before he played with Spezza. Cheechoo was not a 50 goal scorer until he played with Thornton. There are very few 50 goal scorers who did so without a great set-up guy centering them. Heatley won't get to 50 again if he continues to cross the blue-line while trying to grab one of the pennants from the rafters with his stick.

wprager wrote:

Neely4Life wrote:

Dawg's Wife wrote:

Neely4Life wrote:
He has defently not improved this year, at all... again, I think waiting for him to mature is a bigger risk than anything because some people never do and there is no reason to think he will. Spezza with an NTC for 6 years with Heatley, there wont be any help coming on the blue line unless you expect a 20 year old, 165lb kid to do the job.

Money needs to be moved up front, J Bo or not, way too much committed there.

Now that I agree with. I don't necessarily agree with your disdain for Spezza, nor do I believe half of the crap rumors that are out there, but I will agree that all that money up front doesn't do us any good. Especially 3 years down the road if the cap drops.

I will agree that moving Spezza is needed, but just to clear the cap space. But I guess at the end of the day does it matter what the reason is. Whether it's because you don't like him like N4L or you think the cap commitment is too much like me he has to go.

I hope he's lights out for the rest of the season then, that way the package coming back will be much more.

If Heatley is moved, the risk of having Spezza here is reduced so much its not even funny. Spezza and Heatley being here is nearly impossible to get around, especially if they are both content playing the way they are.

I cant stand Spezza as a player and I def know how little respect he has from his team mates and others in the NHL. He has to earn a lot more considering what he has been given. The Sens made a HUGE committment to him, and thus far he has spit in the teams face and the fans.

At the end of the day though, Heatley is a better player and a 50 goal scorer is a lot more rare than a playmaking center.

Heatley was not a 50-goal scorer before he played with Spezza. Cheechoo was not a 50 goal scorer until he played with Thornton. There are very few 50 goal scorers who did so without a great set-up guy centering them. Heatley won't get to 50 again if he continues to cross the blue-line while trying to grab one of the pennants from the rafters with his stick.

there is pretty much only one 50 goal scorer that does it basically on his own, and it's Ovie. am agreed heater needs to branch out from the one trick pony one timer.

asq2 wrote:Regin's got potential, but he's years away from becoming a #2 centre, let alone a number 1.

He's still got a lot of muscle to add and a lot to learn. It's promising, though. He's certainly a guy I'd keep a hold of.

He's 6'1" and 185 lbs. Zetterberg is 5'11" and 195 lbs. It's entirely within the realm of possibilities for Regin to add 10 lbs this summer. A stretch goal could be 15-20. Since he's an inch taller than Zetterberg he'd need to be 3-5 lbs heavier to be of comparable proportions, so 15 lbs would put him in that category. Now, if he gains 15 lbs without losing any foot speed (adding speed would be even better) then I think he will definitely challenge for the #2 centre position (Mike to wing or Nashville).

Personally, I think moving Fisher is a much safer bet than moving Spezza. Fisher, as a second line centre, is much easier to replace with Regin than Spezza would be by promoting Fisher to the top line or hoping that Heatley gels with Cogliano or some-such.

Cronie wrote:he doesn't do that consistently though SF (Spezza backchecking).

Maybe it's as simple as Spezza realizing and figuring out the math that he is the ONLY HUGE contract with no NTC yet; herego, it's quite simple: Dos Vydanya Spezza.
Because the last 2-3 games, Spezza has been playing a certain edge I haven't seen from him since....since...well, EVER!!

It's "ergo" and "do svidanya".

wprager wrote:

Neely4Life wrote:Didnt say that, but Spezza is a problem here and even if they dont sign J Bo, he is on his way out.

100% you need to trade Spezza before taking a shot at him as a UFA, but hey, I guess Murray's words are not enough to convince people. Its Spezza or Heatley out the door, and unless Heatley has asked for a trade, its Spezza out the door.

Again, Vermette's words leaving Ottawa is exactly what everyone who has left this team has said... and who is left? Weather people want to believe it or not, or just choose to ignore it, thats fine, but Spezza is the problem in Ottawa with a sub-par defense.

Enlighten me. What exact words did he say that tells you there's cancer in that room, and who else has said the same?

From what I know Vermette said that he really hated leaving, because they are all great guys and he lvoed playing with them. At the same time he stated the obvious, that this group did not perform to reasonable expctations, abd that there's something wrong. That "something" could be goaltending, coaching, drinking water or, yes, chemistry. "Chemistry" is that great undefinable quantity which has this nasty habit of turning on or off (remember the chemistry when our three top centres went down? instant on). Spezza getting into a fight with Phaneuf to come to Heatley's defense -- that could flip the switch just as easily. Reading Vermette's comments could be another switch-flipper. You just don't know.

But, sorry or the rant, let's get back on topic. Who else said this when leaving?

" It's quite sad to leave the guys, when you grow up as a player in an organization, you make a lot of friends. But I know we didnt have the beginning of the season we expected, and management need to improve the team. But I am not sure if the team is out of the flunk. At the end of the day, hockey is a team sport, and to win, you need some chemistry"

wprager wrote:

asq2 wrote:Regin's got potential, but he's years away from becoming a #2 centre, let alone a number 1.

He's still got a lot of muscle to add and a lot to learn. It's promising, though. He's certainly a guy I'd keep a hold of.

He's 6'1" and 185 lbs. Zetterberg is 5'11" and 195 lbs. It's entirely within the realm of possibilities for Regin to add 10 lbs this summer. A stretch goal could be 15-20. Since he's an inch taller than Zetterberg he'd need to be 3-5 lbs heavier to be of comparable proportions, so 15 lbs would put him in that category. Now, if he gains 15 lbs without losing any foot speed (adding speed would be even better) then I think he will definitely challenge for the #2 centre position (Mike to wing or Nashville).

Personally, I think moving Fisher is a much safer bet than moving Spezza. Fisher, as a second line centre, is much easier to replace with Regin than Spezza would be by promoting Fisher to the top line or hoping that Heatley gels with Cogliano or some-such.

Oh, is Spezza going to be making those mid night trips to CHEO? Is he going to be taking tons of his time and giving it to those who need it. Doubtful. Fisher is exactly what the Sens need and there is no reason for him to go. There is a lot more to being a professional athelte than collecting the paychecks for playing a game.