The Expendables - Ottawa Edition

Cap'n Clutch wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:We'll be taking a step forward as well though.  We're there with TB and the Isles IMO.  Depending on which goalie we choose.  

And what does that tell you? That we're a legitimate, contending team with a legitimate shot of making the final 4. Clutch is confusing elite near-dynasty teams with contenders. Playoff teams are contenders. Perennial final 4 teams are elite or dynasty teams, and they're rare and the exception.

Based on the premis that we're right there with TB and the Isles?  I disagree with that premis personally so my point stands even based on your logic of what defines a contending team with a legit shot at the final 4.  At this point we're now just disagreeing on the premis.

"premis" -- is that French?

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:

Hoags wrote:

Cap'n Clutch wrote:

Hoags wrote:

Cap'n Clutch wrote:Well, if they don't trade Anderson in the off season then do it before the trade deadline.  Lehner is capable of taking the job.  Sure, wait until he's recovered of course but, move Anderson after that.

Maybe at the deadline at the earliest.  Personally I think Lehner has a higher chance of being dealt than Andy.

If they sign O'Connor then someone is gone for sure before training camp.

You're willing to assume that O'Connor will be a stud goalie but not Lehner?  How old is O'Connor?  Do you think he'll be ready to step in when Anderson is no longer a viable starter?

They're trying to sign o'Connor and told him we'd trade a goalie to make room.

Murray isn't the type of GM to trade someone not long after signing an extension.  He's loyal to a fault.

This is just what I think will happen.

Lehner is gone. He's had multiple chances to sieze his opportunities and has fallen flat on his face each time. Hammond was given one chance and dominated. Ya he's a few years older, but like you've been saying, Lehner isn't exactly the best teammate and seems to immature and reckless to lead this team. I understand his upside is still very high but I'm much more comfortable with Hammond than I am with Lehner, and think the team probably feels the same way.

Hammond might have gone on that run but you won't find many who would take him over Lehner IMO. Lehner was beginning a similar run a year ago but MacLean went back to Anderson.

Sorry, as much as I agree PMac should have let it ride back then, it was 3 games and not NHL-record tying numbers.

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:We'll be taking a step forward as well though.  We're there with TB and the Isles IMO.  Depending on which goalie we choose.  

And what does that tell you? That we're a legitimate, contending team with a legitimate shot of making the final 4. Clutch is confusing elite near-dynasty teams with contenders. Playoff teams are contenders. Perennial final 4 teams are elite or dynasty teams, and they're rare and the exception.

It tells me that we're close to being a Final 4 team and that I would act accordingly. Although, I'm not sure it's next year, I'd still act accordingly this summer - albeit with some caution. Then the next off-season, I'd re-assess what went right and what went wrong and I'd go all in.

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:Karlsson/Methot could be the best D pairing in the East, and Wiercioch/Boro could be the best 5/6 combo (dollar and skillwise). Find someone who can play with Ceci and our D all of a sudden looks really good.

We have depth in nets

So look at getting rid of some contracts and improving that 4th line. We could be one of the best teams in the east next year.

Sounds about right. I love the top pairing, if Boro can play the right or Wiercioch can play the right, then that's one of the better bottom pairings as well.

Get a serious #3 D-man, leave the 4th line basically along with Smith and Neil as 2/3s of it and get another 25 goal dude who is BIG. We're close here guys...really close.

wprager wrote:Sorry, as much as I agree PMac should have let it ride back then, it was 3 games and not NHL-record tying numbers.

Was he not 1st star in the entire league for the week? Posting disgusting numbers? I believe he was. He should not have been taken out. Mac went dim earlier than that, but that was his true ascension to being a lame duck 'coach'.

Cap'n Clutch wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:We'll be taking a step forward as well though.  We're there with TB and the Isles IMO.  Depending on which goalie we choose.  

And what does that tell you? That we're a legitimate, contending team with a legitimate shot of making the final 4. Clutch is confusing elite near-dynasty teams with contenders. Playoff teams are contenders. Perennial final 4 teams are elite or dynasty teams, and they're rare and the exception.

Based on the premis that we're right there with TB and the Isles?  I disagree with that premis personally so my point stands even based on your logic of what defines a contending team with a legit shot at the final 4.  At this point we're now just disagreeing on the premis.

As it stands right now, YES or NO, does OTT have a legitimate shot in a 7 game series with anyone in the east other than NYR? To me, that's an easy YES. That means they have a legitimate shot at playing in the conference finals. That's a contender. If winning two rounds in the NHL playoffs is a plausible scenario, then you're a contender. No need to over think this.

NYR and CHI are the classes of their conferences at this point (elite, measuring stick teams -- whatever you want to call them), but there is definitely more than 2 "contending teams" in the NHL -- conservatively, I'd say there are a good 10-12 real contenders in addition to those two. The only possible pretenders I see from this year are maybe WPG (and I think they'll be better next year) and VAN -- I'll give PIT a pass based on past performance and star power. And I think CLB will be a contender next year, too.

I don't think Ottawa would get past TBay, I don't think Ottawa would get past NYI or WAS so I don't agree with you. Not over thought and not overwritten.

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:We'll be taking a step forward as well though.  We're there with TB and the Isles IMO.  Depending on which goalie we choose.  

And what does that tell you? That we're a legitimate, contending team with a legitimate shot of making the final 4. Clutch is confusing elite near-dynasty teams with contenders. Playoff teams are contenders. Perennial final 4 teams are elite or dynasty teams, and they're rare and the exception.

Pittsburgh was not a contender this year. I think there's a difference between near-dynasty elite teams, contenders, and squeakers. Pittsburgh didn't earn their post season berth, they won it by default when the Bruins blew it. Pittsburgh squeaked in, but didn't really have a shot.

Of course, LA squeaked in in the past, but they were contenders.

spader wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:We'll be taking a step forward as well though.  We're there with TB and the Isles IMO.  Depending on which goalie we choose.  

And what does that tell you? That we're a legitimate, contending team with a legitimate shot of making the final 4. Clutch is confusing elite near-dynasty teams with contenders. Playoff teams are contenders. Perennial final 4 teams are elite or dynasty teams, and they're rare and the exception.

Pittsburgh was not a contender this year. I think there's a difference between near-dynasty elite teams, contenders, and squeakers. Pittsburgh didn't earn their post season berth, they won it by default when the Bruins blew it. Pittsburgh squeaked in, but didn't really have a shot.

Of course, LA squeaked in in the past, but they were contenders.

I agree that analysts assign these labels and there is some merit there, but no GM defines his team in these terms or would distinguish between building, on the one hand, and competing, on the other. And that point is where we started on this. No GM is sitting down thinking, "OK, I'm going to build a playoff team that is also a non-contender."

Cap'n Clutch wrote:I don't think Ottawa would get past TBay, I don't think Ottawa would get past NYI or WAS so I don't agree with you.  Not over thought and not overwritten.

People can think negatively or positively, if you want to go with your gut, that's fine, although it has no greater defence than that. Look at OTT's record this year against those teams this year (TB: 2 wins, 2 loses; NYI: 1W, 2Ls; WAS: 1W, 2L -- just about every single game was decided by 1 goal, too) and look at OTT's record down the stretch. Your gut might tell you this team couldn't have competed with TB, NYI, or WAS, but nothing else that is in any way empirical would tell you that.

Stick to your gut if you want, but don't pretend there's anything to the opinion beyond that.

rooneypoo wrote:

Cap'n Clutch wrote:I don't think Ottawa would get past TBay, I don't think Ottawa would get past NYI or WAS so I don't agree with you.  Not over thought and not overwritten.

People can think negatively or positively, if you want to go with your gut, that's fine, although it has no greater defence than that. Look at OTT's record this year against those teams this year (TB: 2 wins, 2 loses; NYI: 1W, 2Ls; WAS: 1W, 2L -- just about every single game was decided by 1 goal, too) and look at OTT's record down the stretch. Your gut might tell you this team couldn't have competed with TB, NYI, or WAS, but nothing else that is in any way empirical would tell you that.

Stick to your gut if you want, but don't pretend there's anything to the opinion beyond that.

And to think that the Sens are definitely going to improve and are definitely going to duplicate the stretch run they did this year is nothing but gut as well. There's nothing emperical, that you've shown me, that would suggest that the Sens would and should be in the final 4 next season, even with a couple tweeks.

Cap'n Clutch wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

Cap'n Clutch wrote:I don't think Ottawa would get past TBay, I don't think Ottawa would get past NYI or WAS so I don't agree with you.  Not over thought and not overwritten.

People can think negatively or positively, if you want to go with your gut, that's fine, although it has no greater defence than that. Look at OTT's record this year against those teams this year (TB: 2 wins, 2 loses; NYI: 1W, 2Ls; WAS: 1W, 2L -- just about every single game was decided by 1 goal, too) and look at OTT's record down the stretch. Your gut might tell you this team couldn't have competed with TB, NYI, or WAS, but nothing else that is in any way empirical would tell you that.

Stick to your gut if you want, but don't pretend there's anything to the opinion beyond that.

And to think that the Sens are definitely going to improve and are definitely going to duplicate the stretch run they did this year is nothing but gut as well.  There's nothing emperical, that you've shown me, that would suggest that the Sens would and should be in the final 4 next season, even with a couple tweeks.

Nothing empirical... except all the data from the second half of the season.



Carry on.

As I see it, and I'm probably not alone, the teams that are seen as top 4 teams are the Habs, TBay, NYR in the east and in the west - CHI, STL (was supposed to be but they've become the chokers as were the Sens and SJ in the past), NSH was supposed to be but they had the bad luck of facing CHI in round 1 and losing one of the best D men to be playing right now. And of course there's ANA. Ottawa isn't there yet.

rooneypoo wrote:

Cap'n Clutch wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

Cap'n Clutch wrote:I don't think Ottawa would get past TBay, I don't think Ottawa would get past NYI or WAS so I don't agree with you.  Not over thought and not overwritten.

People can think negatively or positively, if you want to go with your gut, that's fine, although it has no greater defence than that. Look at OTT's record this year against those teams this year (TB: 2 wins, 2 loses; NYI: 1W, 2Ls; WAS: 1W, 2L -- just about every single game was decided by 1 goal, too) and look at OTT's record down the stretch. Your gut might tell you this team couldn't have competed with TB, NYI, or WAS, but nothing else that is in any way empirical would tell you that.

Stick to your gut if you want, but don't pretend there's anything to the opinion beyond that.

And to think that the Sens are definitely going to improve and are definitely going to duplicate the stretch run they did this year is nothing but gut as well.  There's nothing emperical, that you've shown me, that would suggest that the Sens would and should be in the final 4 next season, even with a couple tweeks.

Nothing empirical... except all the data from the second half of the season.



Carry on.

Keep dreamin'. A mircale run that likely won't be repeated is the standard by which the Sens are to be judged for an 82 game season.

Cap'n Clutch wrote:As I see it, and I'm probably not alone, the teams that are seen as top 4 teams are the Habs, TBay, NYR in the east and in the west - CHI, STL (was supposed to be but they've become the chokers as were the Sens and SJ in the past), NSH was supposed to be but they had the bad luck of facing CHI in round 1 and losing one of the best D men to be playing right now. And of course there's ANA.  Ottawa isn't there yet.

So there are 6 contenders in the NHL, and 2 of them are phoney, and another two are ones that OTT would have had a legitimate shot at beating. So really, there are just two 'contenders,' NYR and CHI.

See, that's my point. That definition is too exclusive. To me, there are at least 8-12 teams every year who have legitimate shots at making the final 4.

Cap'n Clutch wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

Cap'n Clutch wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

Cap'n Clutch wrote:I don't think Ottawa would get past TBay, I don't think Ottawa would get past NYI or WAS so I don't agree with you.  Not over thought and not overwritten.

People can think negatively or positively, if you want to go with your gut, that's fine, although it has no greater defence than that. Look at OTT's record this year against those teams this year (TB: 2 wins, 2 loses; NYI: 1W, 2Ls; WAS: 1W, 2L -- just about every single game was decided by 1 goal, too) and look at OTT's record down the stretch. Your gut might tell you this team couldn't have competed with TB, NYI, or WAS, but nothing else that is in any way empirical would tell you that.

Stick to your gut if you want, but don't pretend there's anything to the opinion beyond that.

And to think that the Sens are definitely going to improve and are definitely going to duplicate the stretch run they did this year is nothing but gut as well.  There's nothing emperical, that you've shown me, that would suggest that the Sens would and should be in the final 4 next season, even with a couple tweeks.

Nothing empirical... except all the data from the second half of the season.



Carry on.

Keep dreamin'.  A mircale run that likely won't be repeated is the standard by which the Sens are to be judged for an 82 game season.  

Look, it's not about repeating that run. It's about what the run represents for the franchise in terms of it having turned a corner and having its youth come of age. The GM for OTT this summer will not be thinking about this year as another year of building, which was the mindset last summer. Re-sign the youth, trade some of the extraneous parts for a top 4 D or top 6 forward, and make one significant (not blockboster) UFA signing -- that's the path forward for this franchise this summer if we're going to make an already competitive team even stronger.

Prepare to be surprised next season, I think. What was the fluke? The last half of the season, or the crappy first half of the season where we had a coach that literally looked like he was out to be fired.

There won't be monumental changes in the off-season, we're coming in full of confidence, Pageau is a major piece on line 3, Stone is now a star, Ryan should be up to speed and most importantly Cameron's system will be in place.