DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players

We finally have a nice shiny young winger in The Hoff, and now we want to trade him.

NEELY wrote:Hoffman has so many more tools than Conacher it's kind of upsetting to see the comparison.  Hoffman can literally score from anywhere on the ice with his shot and can create chances with his speed alone.  Conacher's goals combined make for about 10 feet of work, there's nothing wrong with that but he was not a goal scorer like Hoffman.  There was nothing natural about what Conacher did.

Is it possible Hoffman comes down to earth in the next little bit?  Sure.  But why the hell would you dump all your resources in a player, be as patient as the Sens have been only for him to break out and then you trade him for the reasons you are stating above?  He might decline, he's a 24 year old rookie, he's value is high now... there is just no real foresight to that line of thinking or justification for it.

If like Ev said he's the make or break piece in a deal for a star, sure I get it but you do not trade your leading goal scorer on a team that's struggling to score goals.  It's insane to think otherwise.

Not comparing the players. Grabner was a better example.

What resources have they spent on Hoffman? It's not like he laboured in Bingo. He was a very useful players there and his salary, even though it was paid by Ottawa, was pretty low.

tim1_2 wrote:We finally have a nice shiny young winger in The Hoff, and now we want to trade him.

He is shining on the third line (minutes-wise). We have no idea if he can actually keep it up playing top-six minutes.

Taking the time and effort to develop a prospect, especially a late round one and him actually turning out is a rare thing... you don't piss it away because you think it's a fluke.

Grabner is a better example for sure but you are again comparing a 1st round pick to a 5th rounder. Like I said and others have mentioned, Hoffman's trend is, given a chance, slow start, finds his comfort level, produces. The exact same thing that happened in the Q and the AHL is the exact same thing that is happening here. Ignoring what Hoffman has done in the past given time and patients would be ill-advised to say the very least.

wprager wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:We finally have a nice shiny young winger in The Hoff, and now we want to trade him.

He is shining on the third line (minutes-wise).  We have no idea if he can actually keep it up playing top-six minutes.

5th on the team among forwards in TOI/G at Even strength

wprager wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:We finally have a nice shiny young winger in The Hoff, and now we want to trade him.

He is shining on the third line (minutes-wise).  We have no idea if he can actually keep it up playing top-six minutes.

So what? You f***ing find out and let him drown if he can't.

wprager wrote:

Ev wrote:I don't see how that is trolling. I think you can get a much bigger forward piece using Hoffman given his hot-ish season rather than some of our other young pieces.

Hoffman now may very well be Conacher when we traded Bishop for him. I would be very surprised if he didn't come down to earth next season. Call it sophomore slump or whatever, when it comes to next year he will be up on the whiteboard in the opposing team's room. He might score 30 this season and that will definitely put a target on him. Even if he doesn't get to 30, if he's the team's leading goal scorer other teams will play him a lot tighter.

I'm not advocating trading him, but it could very well be that this is as high as his value will ever go.

That's true, but these sorts of slumps are more common with players like Chiasson. Chiasson scored 9 goals in his first 10 NHL games. He has since scored 18 goals in 120 games. Why the slump? He's a one-dimensional player. He's average with the puck, average away from the puck, average speed, etc. Hoffman excels in too many areas (speed, shot, shot release, creativity, hockey IQ) to totally disappear. I'm not sure someone who scores 30 goals in 51 gp in Bingo, and 52 and 46 goals in the Q all of a sudden becomes awful like Conacher. Yes, he will probably regress but so does every player as they get older.

If anything I would compare Chiasson to Conacher. Both got their careers off to a fast start and steadily declined ever since. At least Chiasson has shown he's solid around the boards and he's a big body to deal with in front of the net. Conacher was the beneficiary of playing on a good offensive team and never had any real expectations in Tampa. Totally different story in Ottawa.

Cool stat. Nick Paul is only 4 points behind his total from last season in 31 less games played.

Chaisson and Conacher are a pretty good comparison, they play the exact same way except one guy is big enough to take that pounding and make a difference in a game.

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:

Cool stat. Nick Paul is only 4 points behind his total from last season in 31 less games played.

There's a player that makes a 1st round pick out of the Top 2 a little more expendable.

NEELY wrote:Taking the time and effort to develop a prospect, especially a late round one and him actually turning out is a rare thing... you don't piss it away because you think it's a fluke.  

Grabner is a better example for sure but you are again comparing a 1st round pick to a 5th rounder.  Like I said and others have mentioned, Hoffman's trend is, given a chance, slow start, finds his comfort level, produces.  The exact same thing that happened in the Q and the AHL is the exact same thing that is happening here.  Ignoring what Hoffman has done in the past given time and patients would be ill-advised to say the very least.

you can't take trends from places where he wasn't long-term. This is what we're trying to figure out, if he can keep it up in the NHL long-term.

Time lines are pretty similar if you look in 3 to 4 year blocks. I don't have a graph or numbers at hand but after 3 seasons somewhere he usually starts to really find his stride, did in the Q, did in the AHL, he seems to be now.

You're right, they need to figure out if he can do this long term in the NHL but IMO this is the type of player you are way better off waiting that time and seeing if it pans out then trading him and saying "oh, he really is good". Hoffman is just one of the last players in the organization I trade at this point, there's just no reason to other than as you said, for an absolute, can't miss star.

NEELY wrote:Time lines are pretty similar if you look in 3 to 4 year blocks. I don't have a graph or numbers at hand but after 3 seasons somewhere he usually starts to really find his stride, did in the Q, did in the AHL, he seems to be now.

You're right, they need to figure out if he can do this long term in the NHL but IMO this is the type of player you are way better off waiting that time and seeing if it pans out then trading him and saying "oh, he really is good". Hoffman is just one of the last players in the organization I trade at this point, there's just no reason to other than as you said, for an absolute, can't miss star.

Ya, I would add Hoffman in with that tier of untradeables. I was sour on Zib earlier this season but he seems to play well with BFR. I actually really like that line. Is it a #1 line? No, but it's the best line we have which can easily be augmented by adding a bonafide LW and moving Hoffman down to the 3rd line.

There's a few guys I would touch at this point, two biggest are Karlsson and Ceci... then Ryan, Turris, Lazar, and Zibanejad..... then Hoffman fits here with maybe Cowen, Lehner.... then a lot of other guys you can probably use as trade bait if need be.

Biggest need up front right now is still a LH center who can play in your top 9... there's no one to take the draw who has a chance on the left side of the ice unless you are trying to win the draw to the middle.

NEELY wrote:There's a few guys I would touch at this point, two biggest are Karlsson and Ceci... then Ryan, Turris, Lazar, and Zibanejad..... then Hoffman fits here with maybe Cowen, Lehner.... then a lot of other guys you can probably use as trade bait if need be.

Biggest need up front right now is still a LH center who can play in your top 9... there's no one to take the draw who has a chance on the left side of the ice unless you are trying to win the draw to the middle.

So maybe ROR is what the doctor ordered. Just not sure where he fits in but I imagine getting ROR will be easier than acquiring Hall considering he's expensive, underperforming, and a UFA at the end of next season.

Col also looking to rebuild so they'll want some younger players going back the other way.

ROR is 100% the player they need at this point. A LH center/winger who can put up some good numbers and is about as good an all around player as you will find in the NHL. If you have to give up one of Turris, Zibanejad, or Lazar straight up to get him you probably do it. It makes a lot more sense to have him down the middle with 2 of those guys then the 3 that are there now.

If you can give up a package with equal value to Colorado with say Cowen as part of it... maybe you look at it.

NEELY wrote:ROR is 100% the player they need at this point. A LH center/winger who can put up some good numbers and is about as good an all around player as you will find in the NHL. If you have to give up one of Turris, Zibanejad, or Lazar straight up to get him you probably do it. It makes a lot more sense to have him down the middle with 2 of those guys then the 3 that are there now.

If you can give up a package with equal value to Colorado with say Cowen as part of it... maybe you look at it.

It won't take as much. No chance ROR re-signs with Colorado after next year. They'll probably take Sens 1st and a high-end prospect. They rid themselves of a potential UFA and his large price tag.

I should say Sens 1st, high-end prospect, and roster player. This is the BFR type deal.

Who is this mythical "high-end prospect" you speak of?

tim1_2 wrote:Who is this mythical "high-end prospect" you speak of?