DEADLINE 2015: Value of Sens Players

Hard enough to guess where players would go but what are they worth? I have seen some good and bad thoughts as to player value so let's put it in a thread and we can look back after the deadline and see how close we were or were not.

Condra - 3rd round pick
Guy is a 4th liner, good PK player. He has been the Sens 12th forward most of the year but he has a role. Cap hit 1.25, real dollars 1.3. Probably makes sense to trade him as you can find a player like him cheaper. And if you really want him back, I'm sure he will be there on July 1st.

I would be looking to resign Condra going forward to be honest.

I think the guy that gets moved is Phillips and I think he lands in NYR... for what? 3rd, maybe a 4th.

This is challenging. Are we guessing who gets traded or what our players are worth?

Phillips (Boston, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Washington) - 3rd rd pick or a low-end prospect
Smith (Chicago, Washington, Calgary, Colorado) - 4th/5th rd pick
Michalek (Winnipeg, San Jose) - 2nd rd pick
Wiercioch (Edmonton, Dallas, Columbus, Chicago) - 3rd rd pick
Methot (Edmonton, LA, NYR) - Prospect and 2nd rd pick

My guesses anyway.

Have we given up on trading a goalie? I think Lehner or would garner a late 1st rounder or a good prospect or two.

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:This is challenging. Are we guessing who gets traded or what our players are worth?

Phillips (Boston, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Washington) - 3rd rd pick or a low-end prospect
Smith (Chicago, Washington, Calgary, Colorado) - 4th/5th rd pick
Michalek (Winnipeg, San Jose) - 2nd rd pick
Wiercioch (Edmonton, Dallas, Columbus, Chicago) - 3rd rd pick
Methot (Edmonton, LA, NYR) - Prospect and 2nd rd pick

My guesses anyway.

That would be a good return.

dennycrane wrote:Hard enough to guess where players would go but what are they worth? I have seen some good and bad thoughts as to player value so let's put it in a thread and we can look back after the deadline and see how close we were or were not.

Condra - 3rd round pick
Guy is a 4th liner, good PK player. He has been the Sens 12th forward most of the year but he has a role. Cap hit 1.25, real dollars 1.3. Probably makes sense to trade him as you can find a player like him cheaper. And if you really want him back, I'm sure he will be there on July 1st.

Condra was a bright spot in the game against NYR.

Idea of the thread in my mind was a list of who could be traded and what the yield would be. A few more guesses from me:

Anderson - 1st and a backup (thinking SJ on this one)
Smith - 3rd
Greening - Clarkson
Phillips - low level prospect and low pick
Neil - 2nd (think the demand could be higher than we think)
Methot - 2nd + prospect

It is hard to figure this out as it assumes the player is the only piece leaving Ottawa.

Except either goalie, the kinds of players we would be willing to move would be worth no more than a 3rd rounder. You might get more if a single team liked 2 players and you'd get a better pick for the pair. Legwand might be worth a 2nd to a team in need of a C.

SeawaySensFan wrote:Except either goalie, the kinds of players we would be willing to move would be worth no more than a 3rd rounder. You might get more if a single team liked 2 players and you'd get a better pick for the pair. Legwand might be worth a 2nd to a team in need of a C.

Simple economics. Supply drives demand. Not a lot of players available like Neil and Phillips out there. Experienced guys, know their role, don't cost much, unique intangibles. I expect the Rags and Isles to be active, especially for Neil and Phillips.

Smith is a young, cheap 4th liner. Wiercioch a young, cheap 4-6 defenceman. I expect teams pressed against the cap (Chicago, Boston) to be interested. Smith, Wiercioch for Oduya might be a possibility. They may even offer up Bickell, Erixon for cap relief.

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:

SeawaySensFan wrote:Except either goalie, the kinds of players we would be willing to move would be worth no more than a 3rd rounder. You might get more if a single team liked 2 players and you'd get a better pick for the pair. Legwand might be worth a 2nd to a team in need of a C.

Simple economics. Supply drives demand. Not a lot of players available like Neil and Phillips out there. Experienced guys, know their role, don't cost much, unique intangibles. I expect the Rags and Isles to be active, especially for Neil and Phillips.

Smith is a young, cheap 4th liner. Wiercioch a young, cheap 4-6 defenceman. I expect teams pressed against the cap (Chicago, Boston) to be interested. Smith, Wiercioch for Oduya might be a possibility. They may even offer up Bickell, Erixon for cap relief.

My estimated returns are based on straight value but I certainly agree with the possibility that market conditions could influence the return. In fact, I am hoping that the factors you have correctly considered have a positive impact on any potential offers coming our way.

If management chooses to leverage our favourable cap position, it could be a windfall in terms of talent.

Bottom line, I think the potential picks and prospects returns might not be as exciting or beneficial as having some legitimate players come back in a cap cutting scenario for some teams.

I agree that we could see deals like that for cap-cutting teams but I think it would be at the draft, not the deadline.

With the dollar down so much, it will be interesting to see what happens to the cap.

dennycrane wrote:I agree that we could see deals like that for cap-cutting teams but I think it would be at the draft, not the deadline.

With the dollar down so much, it will be interesting to see what happens to the cap.

Did you see this?

There’s a real chance players next summer will vote down the five per cent escalator, which, combined with the plummeting Canadian dollar, could mean a salary cap that peaks at closer to $70 million.

http://www.tsn.ca/upset-over-escrow-nhl-players-consider-move-to-limit-salary-cap-s-climb-1.190027

Could be an interesting trade deadline with so many teams being out of contention by that point.  Hopefully if we're still a borderline team at the time, it doesn't stop Murray from making moves to better the long-term health of the franchise.  Moving a guy like Legwand and possibly a goalie are still things that should be done if the return is right.  Both moves could have good return while still not compromising the possibilities for short-term success.

Let's hope it precipitates a ton of trades!!!

spader wrote:

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:This is challenging. Are we guessing who gets traded or what our players are worth?

Phillips (Boston, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Washington) - 3rd rd pick or a low-end prospect
Smith (Chicago, Washington, Calgary, Colorado) - 4th/5th rd pick
Michalek (Winnipeg, San Jose) - 2nd rd pick
Wiercioch (Edmonton, Dallas, Columbus, Chicago) - 3rd rd pick
Methot (Edmonton, LA, NYR) - Prospect and 2nd rd pick

My guesses anyway.

That would be a good return.

He's been playing well, lately, putting up points.