GDT: Wings @ Sens@ Capitals - Right &^%&% NOW!

Looking back over Murray's drafts, who were the players available at the time the Sens made their pick who turned out to be game breakers? And I don't mean anyone outside of the first round, because have breakers found in later found are lucky picks.

I'd say trading the first round pick for Rundblad can be considered a mistake as the clearly did not think anyone worthwhile was available. But 16th overall is close to a lucky pick, too.

wprager wrote:Looking back over Murray's drafts, who were the players available at the time the Sens made their pick who turned out to be game breakers?  And I don't mean anyone outside of the first round, because have breakers found in later found are lucky picks.

I'd say trading the first round pick for Rundblad can be considered a mistake as the clearly did not think anyone worthwhile was available.  But 16th overall is close to a lucky pick, too.

Tarasenko had top 5 skill but at the time Russians were shunned by half the league

And you might as well ignore 2007 because Murray took over for Muckler in June.

In 2008 they picked Karlsson at #15. Not even bothering to look to see if anyone more game-breaking was picked at 16 or higher.

2009 they picked Cowen with Pajarvi, Ellis, Kassian and some others available. I won't disagree that Cowen hasn't (yet) lived up to the promise but I don't think there are game-breakers in the list that followed him.

2010 is when they traded the 16th overall for Rundblad. Beside Tarasenko who went at that spot, I don't really see any game-breaking names there.

2011 is when they had the 6th overall pick and it's hard to argue that Mika Zibanejad was an obvious choice. He's slowly coming closer to expectations but I'm not yet convinced (after a handful of games). But who else was available? Scheifele? Couturier? Hamilton?

Now, the one thing you could say about that draft is they had the 6th, 21st and 24th. You could argue that those 3 picks could have been parlayed into a top-three pick. I don't know if Murray tried or not. I don't think Edmonton would have given up the 1st overall. I don't think Florida would have given up their 3rd overall (Tallon's first full year as GM). I'm just not sure a trade was to be made there, but it's a possibility. Certainly would have been a coup to get into the top three (even if I'm not 100% sold on Nugent-Hopkins or Landeskog because of their size).

I didn't say they even made bad picks, they just haven't developed anything and people have overrated their prospects for a while, including myself. But we still have guys who are very young and can't be judged.

If you're not picking high you need to find the nyquists, benns, subbans, etc and Ottawa has yet to do that.

In 2012 they picked Ceci and, though many here were questioning that pick, I think we all agree it was a very good selection.  

Not sure it makes much sense going further than 2012 as it hasn't been long enough for most players outside the top-three (and Ottawa didn't pick anywhere near that high). Plus we didn't have a 1st pick in 2014, so it's really just 2013 (Lazar).

So, with the exception of trading the 16th overall of Rundblad and not being able (or willing?) to trade up when they had 3 1st rounders, exactly what could Murray have done to get that game-breaking forward?

Ev wrote:I didn't say they even made bad picks, they just haven't developed anything and people have overrated their prospects for a while, including myself. But we still have guys who are very young and can't be judged.

If you're not picking high you need to find the nyquists, benns, subbans, etc and Ottawa has yet to do that.

Nyquist is in his 2nd full season, playing behind Datsyuk/Zetterberg (talk about sheltered minutes) and he's got 15 goals. Hoffman is in his first full season, and has 11 goals -- he's been playing primarily 3rd line minutes, so even though Ottawa doesn't really have a top line worth the other teams' best defensive players, he's probably playing against similar opposition to Nyquist; just fewer minutes. It's way too early to tell, but he could turn out to be as much of a late-round steal as Nyquist (btw, Nyquist went in the 4th, Hoffman in the 5th).

wprager wrote:So, with the exception of trading the 16th overall of Rundblad and not being able (or willing?) to trade up when they had 3 1st rounders, exactly what could Murray have done to get that game-breaking forward?

All great teams find talent. Find it. If not, then you gotta bet a top pick in the draft. You can't have it both ways.

wprager wrote:

Ev wrote:I didn't say they even made bad picks, they just haven't developed anything and people have overrated their prospects for a while, including myself. But we still have guys who are very young and can't be judged.

If you're not picking high you need to find the nyquists, benns, subbans, etc and Ottawa has yet to do that.

Nyquist is in his 2nd full season, playing behind Datsyuk/Zetterberg (talk about sheltered minutes) and he's got 15 goals.  Hoffman is in his first full season, and has 11 goals -- he's been playing primarily 3rd line minutes, so even though Ottawa doesn't really have a top line worth the other teams' best defensive players, he's probably playing against similar opposition to Nyquist; just fewer minutes.  It's way too early to tell, but he could turn out to be as much of a late-round steal as Nyquist (btw, Nyquist went in the 4th, Hoffman in the 5th).

15 goals is a 34 goal pace. Nothing to sneez at. He's also a better player than Hoffman but that wasn't my point.

Ev wrote:

wprager wrote:

Ev wrote:I didn't say they even made bad picks, they just haven't developed anything and people have overrated their prospects for a while, including myself. But we still have guys who are very young and can't be judged.

If you're not picking high you need to find the nyquists, benns, subbans, etc and Ottawa has yet to do that.

Nyquist is in his 2nd full season, playing behind Datsyuk/Zetterberg (talk about sheltered minutes) and he's got 15 goals.  Hoffman is in his first full season, and has 11 goals -- he's been playing primarily 3rd line minutes, so even though Ottawa doesn't really have a top line worth the other teams' best defensive players, he's probably playing against similar opposition to Nyquist; just fewer minutes.  It's way too early to tell, but he could turn out to be as much of a late-round steal as Nyquist (btw, Nyquist went in the 4th, Hoffman in the 5th).

15 goals is a 34 goal pace. Nothing to sneez at. He's also a better player than Hoffman but that wasn't my point.

15 goals is very good. What I'm saying is that 11 vs. 15 when you also account for one more year in the league and more ice time is comparable.

By the way, Nyquist put up 28 goals in 57 games last year. Hoffman is nowhere near that pace (he's on pace for 19 in 57; less ice time and a worse team account for some of that). So the comparison is flawed, to be sure. Still, that's a late round (5th) pick that's showing some game-breaking ability. It'll be very interesting to see how that develops next year. He could hugely regress (sophomore slump) or Zibanejad could just be blossoming into what they saw when they took him at 6th overall and Hoffman could benefit greatly.

If I'm taken into consideration what other GMs have done with their picks I think I'm quite satisfied with picking with the Murray team. No one has been able to nab the best player available consistently every year, but you can bet Murrays picks are above the average of prospects to NHLer rate. On top of finding great players in the later round or knowing which players to take a chance on (Hoffman, stone)

If you look at the players the Sens have drafted:
- Lehner in goal
- Karlsson/Ceci/Cowen (top-four potential)
- Borowiecki/Gryba/Wiercioch (bottom four)
- Zibanejad/Hoffman/Stone (top-six)

That's not a bad start. Then you add:
- Turris/Ryan/Anderson/Chiasson/Methot (if he was playing) via trade
- MacArthur/Legwand as UFA signing

If you check who was available at center in the summer, Legwand was the best of a bad crop (if you ignore those high-end guys who had no interest in signing with Ottawa).

Where the Sens have repeatedly made mistakes is in re-signing current players -- Michalek, Phillips, Greening, Smith. Either too much, too long or simply should have let them go.

I mean, imagine if Michalek was let go and Greening and Smith were traded for picks instead of being extended. We'd have kept Pageau and had room to bring up Peumpel and Prince.

I think everyone at the time thought the Smith deal was good. Greening was a little much but he was bringing so much in the playoffs. He might again. And it's not like we're against the cap. The only thing I would reproach Murray is maybe not addressing our need on D, but no one is perfect. Especially with some of the moves he's made.
Bringing guys and resinning them like Turris and Ryan are huge for a small franchise.

Flo The Action wrote:I think everyone at the time thought the Smith deal was good. Greening was a little much but he was bringing so much in the playoffs.  He might again. And it's not like we're against the cap.  The only thing I would reproach Murray is maybe not addressing our need on D, but no one is perfect. Especially with some of the moves he's made.
Bringing guys and resinning them like Turris and Ryan are huge for a small franchise.

I was not at all upset about the Smith deal, but he's been really, really terrible. It's not so much that they gave him too much money it's that (in hindsight) they should have either traded him or given him just a 1-year extension. Force him to keep proving himself.

As for Greening, I don't think there was a single person here who thought that was an OK extension.

As for the D, we would have been fine if Methot was healthy.

Actually, with Methot and Michalek, I wonder if there's something wrong with our medical staff?

I didn't mind the greening extension at the time. I thought it was slightly high, but it wasn't a big deal.

Smith was a good deal at the time, but damn he's been useless.

I think you look at a cash strapped team this summer and try to get a cup winning forward. Again, Chicago makes a lot of sense with hossa or sharp. I still like the makeup of this team, but we early need a top line winger and a top pairing Dman. Hopefully we can find one of each somewhere.