What's Next for The Maple Leafs?

Yahoo Sports provides their perspective on the Leafs as D-Day approaches for The Burke--as well as a tribute to the late Peter Zezel:

Inside Shots: Toronto Maple Leafs Team Report
Yahoo Sports, June 3, 2009

The Toronto hockey community lost one of its greatest ambassadors when ex-Leaf and 15-year NHL player Peter Zezel passed away from complications after surgery related to a longstanding blood disorder.

A key part of the Leafs’ back-to-back Western Conference finalist teams in the early 1990s and a junior star in his hometown, Zezel was 44.

“Peter was the ultimate caring friend and teammate … our hockey family is devastated,” said Mark Osborne, his close friend and linemate in Toronto. “I had just been in contact with him a few days before he went into the hospital. This has been a shock to everyone.”

Zezel almost died in 2001 from a condition called hemolytic anemia. He fought it and was able to lead a near-normal life. But during spleen surgery the week before he died, major complications developed.

“Peter will forever be remembered as a great teammate and a wonderful individual who touched the lives of many both on and off the ice,” a statement from the family read.

Zezel, well known for his acts of charity, donated his organs.

“His biggest asset as a player was his brain,” ex-Leaf captain Wendel Clark said. “He started in the league around the same time I did (in the mid-1980s) and was drafted as an offensive player. But through 15 years (and seven teams, ending with Vancouver in 1999) he was smart enough to ask himself, ‘How can I help in other ways’? He became a strong defensive player, and that’s how he lasted so long.”

Season Highlight: The Leafs started four rookies on opening night in Detroit and upset the Stanley Cup champion Red Wings 3-2. It served notice that Toronto had definitely moved on from the Pat Quinn era, which favored veterans. Toronto would come close to 400 rookie games in the course of the season, and 10 players appeared in their first NHL games as Leafs.

Turning Point: On Oct. 21, frustrated that both G Vesa Toskala and G Curtis Joseph could not win clutch games, coach Ron Wilson replaced Toskala with Joseph for the home shootout against Anaheim. But Toronto still lost, and inconsistent goaltending would be an issue until February.

Notes, Quotes

• The NHL scouting combine was scheduled for May 30-31 in Toronto, and the Leafs planned to be actively interviewing a number of junior-aged stars. Toronto is picking seventh overall, but the sentimental favorite is forward Braydon Schenn, brother of Toronto D Luke Schenn, from the Western Hockey League.

• Leafs officials continue to keep mum on the possibility of a second team in the Greater Toronto Area, as sought by Jim Balsillie in his attempts to buy the Phoenix Coyotes. Most believe the Leafs would seek a hefty territorial infringement fee if Balsillie were to gain control and try to get the Coyotes to Copps Coliseum in nearby Hamilton, Ont.

Quote To Note: “Peter was a friend and a great family man who was well liked by everyone he crossed paths with in our game.”—NHLPA executive Glenn Healy on the death of Peter Zezel.

Roster Report

Most Valuable Player: LW Jason Blake had won few friends with the Leafs in his first year. He was sullen about his new surroundings, the media attention and lack of production after a 40-goal year on Long Island. But after he won the Bill Masterton Trophy for playing through a treatable form of leukemia, his attitude changed and points skyrocketed this season, when he was the first American in 20 years to lead the Leafs in scoring.

Most Disappointing Player: Much was expected of G Vesa Toskala after he excelled with a defensively weak team in his first season. But when GM Brian Burke blamed the Leafs missing the playoffs this year on goaltending, he was referring to Toskala’s autumn struggles, which contributed to Toronto’s NHL-worst save percentage.

Free Agent Focus: At least Leaf general manager Brian Burke is admitting to the possibility of pursuing the Sedin Twins if they don’t re-sign with the Canucks.

It has been widely expected that Daniel and Henrik would first listen to Burke if they decide to move, as he had pulled many strings to get them drafted together in Vancouver 10 years ago. Burke would only say it would be problematic for any team to try to break them up, but paying for both would break the bank for many clubs.

Player Notes:

• G Jonas Gustavsson’s mother passed away, which temporarily put on hold the Leafs’ pursuit of the Swedish star.

One of the teams the Leafs were thought to be competing against is the Colorado Avalanche, but the decision of Patrick Roy not to seek the coaching job there could sway Gustavsson, who idolized Roy as a kid.

Medical Watch:

• G Vesa Toskala underwent hip surgery in Vail, Col., on March 9 and is expected to have less serious groin surgery at a later date. A full recovery is expected.

• D Mike Van suffered a torn medial collateral ligament on March 7, his fourth serious injury of the year, but escaped an even worse anterior cruciate injury and should be able to skate by June.

• D Erik Reitz (broken foot) has yet to play for the Leafs after they claimed him on waivers from the New York Rangers.

Howard Berger of Toronto's Fan 590 gives his opinion in anticipation of Brian Burke's upcoming moves, and on the Leafs looking forward:

BURKE UNLIKELY TO EXPLOIT BUYOUT WINDOW

Howard Berger, Fan590.com, June 8, 2009

PITTSBURGH (June 8) – When questioned, at the end of the regular season, about the onerous contract commitments the Maple Leafs have for 2009-10, general manager Brian Burke dismissed the issue, suggesting there are many ways to eliminate players from the roster. Among the alternatives Burke mentioned was the buyout option – an annual license, granted by the collective bargaining agreement, which allows teams to purge up to three contracts in a two-week window that begins June 15. The Leafs utilized the option last year to dismiss Andrew Raycroft and Darcy Tucker from the hockey club, having done so previously with Ed Belfour and Tie Domi.

The buyout option, however, has a major draw-back that obliges a team to continue paying the player it releases – in most cases, two-thirds of outstanding salary spread over twice the remaining term; all of the money counting against the annual cap figure. As such, the Leafs are on the hook with Tucker for $1 million in each of the next four seasons, and the club must pay Raycroft $733,333 next season. Buyouts are therefore looked upon as a last resort and are not considered paramount by a manager choosing to be aggressive and/or creative. Burke is claiming he’ll fit that bill this summer, as he begins to place his stamp on the Maple Leafs. So, it came as no surprise when he suggested during an e-mail exchange earlier today that he's unlikely to utilize the buyout window, opening next Monday.

“Not planning to,” Burke wrote. “Buyouts carry cap hits. [But,] it doesn’t mean we won’t change our minds later.”

And, that’s the best way for Burke to position the Leafs’ early off-season strategy. If he wanted to create three quick vacancies on the roster, Burke could easily buy out, say, Jamal Mayers, Lee Stempniak and either of Jonas Frogren or Matt Stajan – none of whom are likely to lead a Stanley Cup charge in the coming years. That isn't the plan, but neither should Burke entirely discount the option, for it might prove more sensible prior to, or immediately following, the NHL draft. At some point this summer, the Leafs’ GM will have to deal with the number of commitments on the docket for next season. Trades and waivers are also effective ways to eliminate contracts without getting stuck with unwanted salary and Burke is almost certain to utilize both.

As it stands, the Leafs have 20 players under contract that most expect will either be on the roster next season, or strongly challenge for a spot. They are: Forwards Tyler Bozak, Jason Blake, Christan Hanson, Niklas Hagman, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Nik Kulemin, John Mitchell, Jiri Tlusty, Stempniak, Stajan and Mayers; defensemen Pavel Kubina, Tomas Kaberle, Mike Van Ryn, Luke Schenn, Jeff Finger, Ian White, Anton Stralman and Frogren; and goalie Vesa Toskala. Not included are restricted free agent Mikhail Grabovski; a back-up goaltender, young players such as Jeremy Williams and Phil Oreskovic, and, perhaps, a high first-round draft pick that may grab a spot as Schenn did last season. So, even though Burke scoffs at the notion it’ll be tricky for him to juggle all the contracts, the number is rather imposing, given that rosters are limited to 23 men.

Burke’s off-season maneuvering will be fascinating to observe. In his prior NHL stops, he has rarely hesitated to make quick, challenging judgments that are normally cause for deferment. That’s why he will likely take an aggressive approach to pursuing free agents, and to discussing trade options for players such as Kaberle, Kubina and Ponikarovsky. If Grabovski chooses arbitration to land a contract extension – as is threatened – Burke has the option to either walk away from a ruling, or to trade his most dynamic forward from last season.

Do not dismiss either possibility.

Spending to the cap limit has been a peculiar badge of honor for the Leafs in most years since the lockout. It has also guaranteed absolutely nothing, as is evidenced by the number of playoff appearances the club has made. So, I’m not certain why Burke got caught up in issuing a similar claim last week. Unless he engineers an all-out assault on the post-season – which will unavoidably come at the expense of long-term planning – exhausting the cap figure would be largely a grandstanding gesture.

One general manager told me on a flight last week that he thinks the Leafs are actually “looking to spend about $40 million and finish near the bottom of the league.” With Schenn in the fold, and another high draft pick this summer — Burke is angling to maneuver upward from No. 7 — a third year in the nether regions of the NHL would almost guarantee a precipitous rise through the standings [witness Chicago, Pittsburgh, Washington, etc.]. But, it’s difficult to imagine the intensely competitive Burke idling through his first full season at the helm of the Blue & White.

E-mail howard.berger@rci.rogers.com

One general manager told me on a flight last week that he thinks the Leafs are actually “looking to spend about $40 million and finish near the bottom of the league.” With Schenn in the fold, and another high draft pick this summer — Burke is angling to maneuver upward from No. 7 — a third year in the nether regions of the NHL would almost guarantee a precipitous rise through the standings [witness Chicago, Pittsburgh, Washington, etc.]. But, it’s difficult to imagine the intensely competitive Burke idling through his first full season at the helm of the Blue & White.

If you look to move up in the top 3, you are looking to either fleece another GM completely or the deal will involve Schenn, I guarantee you that one, and since Burkie I don't think is that stupid to let Schenn go, he will be settling with the # 7.

This is from the Toronto Sun today:

LEAFS DONE WITH CUJO
Steve Buffery, SunMedia, June 9, 2009

Even if The Monster decides to haunt some other NHL locale next season, the Maple Leafs definitely will not bring back veteran goaltender Curtis Joseph.

General manager Brian Burke will come up with a Plan B if Swedish free agent Jonas (The Monster) Gustavsson decides not to sign with the Leafs this summer.

But even if the big Swede goes elsewhere (Dallas seems to be the other leading destination), and the Leafs begin looking for a legitimate backup for Vesa Toskala, it won't be the 42-year-old Joseph.

"Great service as a Leaf," Burke said yesterday of Joseph. "But we are moving on."

It's expected that Joseph officially will retire this summer. The Keswick, Ont., native, who broke into the NHL during the 1989-90 season with the St. Louis Blues, struggled at times this past season, posting a save percentage of .869 and goals against average of 3.57.

Burke, however, is not ruling out bringing back free agent Martin Gerber, whom the Leafs claimed off waivers on March 4 this past season.

Gerber, 34, played well for Toronto, posting a .905 save percentage and 3.23 goals against.

Burke has suggested that if Gustavsson, widely considered the best goaltender outside of the NHL, signs elsewhere, he will replenish the goaltending position via the draft or free agency, which begins July 1. It's expected that the Leafs won't retain restricted free agent Justin Pogge, one time the franchise's so-called goaltender of the future.

Some front-line free agent goaltenders available for next season include Nikolai Khabibulin (Chicago Blackhawks), Manny Fernandez (Boston Bruins) and Martin Biron (Philadelphia Flyers), although it's unlikely Burke will spend a lot of money on a quality starter with Toskala under contract for another season.

STEVE.BUFFERY@SUNMEDIA.CA

ESPN's EJ Hradek and Tom Awad from Puck Prospectus prognosticate and prescribe some fixes for the Maple Leafs.

TORONTO HAS A BIG NEED IN NET: Big Hole Could Require Monster Fix

Plugging Holes - Toronto Maple Leafs
EJ Hradek, Tom Awad, ESPN.com, June 18, 2009



The Hole: No. 1 goaltender

As incredible as it seems for a team that has finished in the bottom third of the NHL the past two seasons, the Maple Leafs are just one goaltender away from contention. The Maple Leafs' goaltending GVT of minus-43 was far and away the worst of any team in the NHL this past seaosn. Vesa Toskala, the No. 1 for most of the year, was awful, and neither Martin Gerber nor Justin Pogge impressed in limited stints. Gerber and Pogge probably won't be back, and the Leafs badly need an alternative to Toskala.

The Fix: Sign Jonas Gustavsson (UFA, Färjestad, Sweden)


An unknown to many on this side of the Atlantic, Gustavsson was the best goaltender this year in the Swedish Elitserien, the same league that produced Miikka Kiprusoff and Henrik Lundqvist, and is now a free agent.

While being the next Lundqvist is never a sure thing, Gustavsson already is very good and is only 24. His stats from Sweden, if we follow the trend of previous goaltenders who have made the jump, point to him as an above-average NHL netminder.

As a rookie, he'll be eligible for only an entry-level salary, so he won't break the bank. There has been talk Toskala could remain the starter even if the Swede signs with the Leafs, but as discussed, Toskala's numbers don't support that move.

If they fail to land Gustavsson, the Leafs would do well to keep looking. One longshot possibility is Jean-Sebastien Giguere, with whom Leafs GM Brian Burke has a prior relationship from their time together in Anaheim, but Giguere would come with a $6 million contract and would be hard to move.

E.J.'s Take: In this league -- or just about any other hockey league -- you aren't going anywhere without goaltending. It's the starting point for success. For the past few seasons, inconsistent goaltending has been part of the problem in Toronto. So I think it's a very good idea to pursue anyone who'll strengthen that key position. Most scouts agree that Gustavsson has NHL talent. He put up terrific numbers in the Swedish Elitserien. And as mentioned, history indicates those numbers would translate to success in the NHL.

If the Leafs can sign Gustavsson, that would be a nice addition to their rebuilding process. It should help firm up a weak area. Still, Burke has a lot of work to do in reshaping his roster. In Toronto, I don't see any singular fix. Rather, I believe Burke & Co. must continue to build this team piece by piece.

Tom Awad is a writer for Puck Prospectus. E.J. Hradek is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine.

Note: A mainstay of Puck Prospectus's metrics is "Goals Versus Threshold" (GVT). The stat blends an array of offensive and defensive figures to measure the value, in terms of goals, a player contributes above what the marginal player would over the course of the season. A marginal player is one that could be replaced with a player of equivalent skill, e.g. from the minors. For instance, Evgeni Malkin had an offensive GVT of +18.9, a defensive GVT of +4.5 and a total GVT of +23.4 for the 2008-9 regular season, meaning that Malkin was worth 23.4 goals more than a marginal player over the course of the season, or worth about 0.3 additional goals per game. In the team context, GVT refers to performance above an NHL average team. For the regular season, the Detroit Red Wings had a +30.8 offensive GVT, a +15.1 defensive GVT, a -21.5 goaltending GVT, for a +24.4 total GVT. Therefore, at even strength, Detroit was 24.4 goals better than the average team.

They should look to land both JS Giguere and this Gustavsson character. Gustavsson alone won't do it for them. Trade Tosksala for whatever can help them in the long run. Gerber's a UFA so I'm sure he'll be elsewhere.

shabbs wrote:They should look to land both JS Giguere and this Gustavsson character. Gustavsson alone won't do it for them. Trade Tosksala for whatever can help them in the long run. Gerber's a UFA so I'm sure he'll be elsewhere.

Giggy and Gusty would give them a bit of stability in nets, they haven't had that in a few years.

From SunMedia today, a report on Gustavsson, Tavares, JayBo, the Sedins and other presumed candidates to wear the Maple Leaf next year:

MONSTER WOULD ACCEPT ROLE AS BACKUP BEHIND TOSKALA
Steve Buffery, Toronto Sun/June 20, 2009

The Maple Leafs had better hope Swedish goaltending sensation Jonas Gustavsson didn't come down with a case of indigestion during his visit to Toronto yesterday.

Gustavsson's Sweden-based agent, Par Larsson, said the goalie's ultimate decision as to where he will play next season will rest on a "gut feeling," more so than money or playing time. Larsson reiterated that the Leafs are serious contenders for the goalie's services.

"I think they've turned the corner," Larsson said yesterday of the Leafs. "I like (GM) Brian Burke. He has a great reputation. But we're still not close to making a decision. We'll see what Jonas thinks after the trip. I expect we'll make a decision in one to two weeks.

"This trip is more or less to get a sense of the organization," Larsson said of Gustavsson's tour of Toronto and the Leafs' facilities yesterday.

Contrary to earlier reports, Larsson said Gustavsson, considered by many to be the best goaltender outside of the NHL last season, would accept an assignment to the minors, although not on a permanent basis. In that sense, Toronto would be in a favourable position, with its minor-league team based here.

"We think he's ready to play (in the NHL), but if the organization feels he needs some games in the minors, we're not afraid of that," Larsson said.

He added that Gustavsson would have no problems backing up Toronto's No. 1 goaltender Vesa Toskala.

"We're looking where he will get the best situation and the best situation for him may not be as starter," Larsson said. "But we are looking for him to play a lot of games. It's a complex situation. We want him to play, but we don't want to be on a losing team."

As for the pressure of playing in one of the most important hockey markets, Larsson doesn't believe that would be a problem for Gustavsson, known as the Monster.

Gustavsson, who posted a stellar 1.96 goals against average and .932 save percentage for Farjestad in the Swedish Elite League last season, visited the four NHL cities this week that have expressed interest in signing him -- Toronto, Colorado (Denver), Dallas and San Jose.

Teams wouldn't be able to offer Gustavsson more than a first-year salary of $900,000 US next season, but the Leafs are in good shape under the salary cap to significantly improve on that in subsequent years.

Meanwhile, there are rumours Burke is interested in signing Florida Panthers free agent defenceman Jay Bouwmeester this summer.

MOVE UP
Burke also is looking to move up in the draft next week in Montreal. The Leafs hold the No. 7 spot, but Burke has said he is looking to draft London Knights star John Tavares, or, as a possible Plan B, rugged Brandon Wheat Kings forward Brayden Schenn, brother of Leafs defenceman Luke Schenn.

There's also talk that Burke would be interested in Vancouver free-agent forwards Daniel and Henrik Sedin, who reportedly want a 12-year, $63-million extension.

STEVE.BUFFERY@SUNMEDIA.CA

1. Brian Burke's head explodes due to swelling.
2. 40 more years of suckiness.

I almost puked when I read this:

As incredible as it seems for a team that has
finished in the bottom third of the NHL the past two seasons, the Maple
Leafs are just one goaltender away from contention.

I've heard of homerism before, but this is just delusional. In contention for what? 10th place? The Leafs roster is terrible all over. They have no first line center, or a second line center. No top line wingers, just spare parts that masquerade as ones. They have no prospects in the system that are going to be elite players, with the potential exception of Luke Schenn, but he's going to be a shutdown defenseman, which although a vital component of championship teams, does not get you to a championship on his own. They have woeful forward and scoring depth and nothing in the system that we know of that indicates that's going to change.

Their goalie of the future appears to be a bust. Their current number 1 might be sick of having to bail out their ridiculously poor defensive structure.

Their only saving grace is that by some miracle, they've actually assembled a fairly decent top 6 on the backend. But they still go through so much injury concern with those guys that rarely in the season do they employ the top 6 they want.

Ugh, I can't believe how much that sentence bothered me.

PKC wrote:I almost puked when I read this:

As incredible as it seems for a team that has
finished in the bottom third of the NHL the past two seasons, the Maple
Leafs are just one goaltender away from contention.

I've heard of homerism before, but this is just delusional. In contention for what? 10th place? The Leafs roster is terrible all over. They have no first line center, or a second line center. No top line wingers, just spare parts that masquerade as ones. They have no prospects in the system that are going to be elite players, with the potential exception of Luke Schenn, but he's going to be a shutdown defenseman, which although a vital component of championship teams, does not get you to a championship on his own. They have woeful forward and scoring depth and nothing in the system that we know of that indicates that's going to change.

Their goalie of the future appears to be a bust. Their current number 1 might be sick of having to bail out their ridiculously poor defensive structure.

Their only saving grace is that by some miracle, they've actually assembled a fairly decent top 6 on the backend. But they still go through so much injury concern with those guys that rarely in the season do they employ the top 6 they want.

Ugh, I can't believe how much that sentence bothered me.

It certainly is stupid. The writers of this article obviously have zero credibility after writing that scentence...

Leafs' Burke pulling out all the stops to lock up Monster
Kevin McGran, The Toronto Star, June 21, 2009

The wining and dining of Jonas Gustavsson continued last night when the free agent goalie sat down for a meal with Maple Leaf forward John Mitchell.

Both are clients of agent Joe Resnick. Gustavsson had a meeting Friday night with Leaf GM Brian Burke that went "really, really well," Resnick said yesterday. "Brian knows Jonas very well. He's met with him two or three times. Jonas is very comfortable with Brian."

Resnick said Gustavsson will make his decision based on his comfort level with the team, its management, stability in ownership and "a gut feel."

To that end, the Leafs had fellow Swede Jonas Frogren talk up the team with Gustavsson. Leaf legend Borje Salming had a word with the 24-year-old prior to his four-city tour that winds up today.

The goalie expects to make his mind up by the end of the month.

"Our goal is to make a decision by July 1 so the teams can make a decision on personnel (when unrestricted free agent signings begin," said Resnick. "He's got to go back home and speak with his girlfriend of two years. It's a big decision."

The undrafted netminder also met representatives of Colorado, San Jose and Dallas.

Wow, for a guy who's never played a game in North America he seems to think of himself pretty highly.

Howard Berger from Toronto's Fan590 presents his perspective on Brian Burke's plans and processes.

LOOK FOR BURKE TO GET IT RIGHT
Howard Berger, Fan590.com/June 21, 2009

PENFIELD, N.Y. (June 21) – The Detroit Red Wings began and ended the 2008-09 National Hockey League season by losing games on home ice. The entire hockey world knows which club toppled Detroit’s playoff drive at Joe Louis Arena a week ago Friday – the Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins. Only a select few, however, remember the Toronto Maple Leafs kicking off the regular schedule with an upset victory over the Red Wings in Hockeytown last October. It was a fleeting moment for the Leafs, as the club missed the playoffs for a record fourth consecutive season, but long-sought stability in management indicates that better days lie ahead.

So many of your questions to me this week touched on the course of action general manager Brian Burke will pursue as he re-shapes the Maple Leafs this summer. The process actually began toward the end of last season, when Burke and his former assistant, Joe Nieuwendyk, convinced college free agents Christian Hanson and Tyler Bozak to sign with the Blue & White. Nieuwendyk later departed to become GM of the Dallas Stars. The process continues as we speak, with Burke and Co. attempting to land arguably the top free agent in Europe: Swedish-born goalie Jonas (The Monster) Gustavsson. And, it will likely gain lots of steam during the next couple of weeks, with the NHL draft in Montreal, followed by the onset of unrestricted free agency July 1st.

Most fascinating to observe is whether Burke, as he’s implied, can execute a crafty, two-pronged arrangement… one that’ll improve the club for next season, without damaging its long-term agenda. And, this is where the Leafs’ GM will have to juggle all of the emotional strings tugging at him in his new hockey environment. He has spoken directly about the desire to end the Leafs’ playoff famine in 2009-10, but that objective, alone, could prove disastrous.

For all but a few years under Cliff Fletcher and Pat Burns, then a few more under Pat Quinn, simply qualifying for the post-season has been the Leafs’ sole ambition since 1967. The quest to sneak into that No. 8 position in the conference standings has incalculably tarnished the franchise in recent years. It's a precarious venture with limited upside that has usually culminated with the team out of contention, and hovering in a detrimental spot just beneath the playoff bracket. Burke finds himself in that dilemma this summer – his first in control of the Leafs – and is attempting to trade up from the club’s No. 7 draft position, as Fletcher was forced to do last year in Ottawa.

It therefore follows that Burke must optimally choose between two paths: Either attempt a staggering makeover that will enable the Leafs to immediately challenge for a top-four position in the conference, or continue a slow, patient route to contention, three or four years down the line with young prospects, and forget about making a playoff push next season. The choice of anything in-between – as has so often been the case – will almost certainly prevent the Leafs from moving forward.

Going for a quick fix, though not without precedent, will be a gargantuan task. Based on the 2008-09 Eastern Conference standings, it would minimally require the Leafs (81 points) to improve by 18 points for a top-four placing… 13 to just get into the playoffs, and another five to make the arduous venture worthwhile (Pittsburgh finished fourth in the East with 99 points as the No. 2 seed, behind New Jersey, in the Atlantic Division). To capture the Northeast Division title, outright, the Leafs would have to pull of an historical ascent, as Boston was 35 points superior in ’08-09.

I was asked, in many of your e-mail submissions, whether I believe Burke will take a prudent approach to building the Maple Leafs. In other words, if confronted with a choice between going for broke, or staying the course, which will he pursue? Obviously, I don’t have that answer right now; nor does anyone else. But, to me, it’s a no-brainer. Burke is a prime hockey talent with more than 20 years of front-line experience as a manager and league executive. Though he desperately wants to guide the Maple Leafs into Stanley Cup territory – and can envision the fruits of such labor in a market hungering for success – he will neither abandon the principles, nor the guidelines, to logistically move ahead in the post-lockout NHL.

On many occasions, I have trumpeted Burke as the best man to direct the Leafs’ fortunes. Though he has a spontaneous nature that could threaten methodical advancement, he will not be overcome by visions of grandeur. It merely requires him to review the Leafs’ chronic plan in most years since last winning the Stanley Cup, and to comprehend the ruinous nature of such strategy. To wither in the middle ground between building through the draft and aiming for the far reaches of the conference standings – as is custom in Toronto – can no longer prevail.

Nor will it, in my opinion.

http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/nothingbutleafs/2009/06/20/look-for-burke-to-get-it-right/#respond

Fan590 Maple Leafs broadcast columnist Howard Berger proffers his present percolations on the Bluelanders.

Pondering The Leafs' Future
Howard Berger, Fan590.com/June 23, 2009
howard.berger@rci.rogers.com

TORONTO – Some thoughts, observations and gut feelings about the Maple Leafs heading into the National Hockey League entry draft Friday at Montreal…

MOVIN’ ON UP: Though general manager Brian Burke has forcefully indicated his desire to not only trade up from the club’s No. 7 draft slot – but to grab the coveted No. 1 position and land top-rated prospect John Tavares – accomplishing such a feat will be next to impossible. The reason is simple: For one of the few times in the annals of the universal draft, which dates to 1970, there appears to be a trio of franchise players at the top. Any of Tavares, Victor Hedman or Matt Duchene is considered of such quality that NHL teams can likely build their entire programs around them.

There have been draft years, of course, in which even the top prospect is rated below “franchise” caliber, and history suggests that at least one of the big three this summer will fail to attain such billing. But, you won’t find a scout on the planet willing to bet which one. Though NHL stars have regularly been drafted beyond No. 3, only once since 1970 have the top three positions turned into “franchise” commodities.

That was in 1997; when initial four selections (Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Olli Jokinen and Roberto Luongo) went on to attain varied levels of greatness. More commonly through the years has a dynamic duo emerged at the top of the draft, beginning in 1971 with Guy Lafleur and Marcel Dionne. It also happened in 1984 with Mario Lemieux and Kirk Muller; 1985 with Wendel Clark and Craig Simpson; 1987 with Pierre Turgeon and Brendan Shanahan; 1988 with Mike Modano and Trevor Linden; 2001 with Ilya Kovalchuk and Jason Spezza; 2003 with Marc-Andre Fleury and Eric Staal, and – most significantly – 2004 with Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin. But, it’s extremely rare for three prospects to be rated in the franchise category.

That’s why Burke would do very well to repeat what his predecessor, Cliff Fletcher, pulled off last year, and move up two spots to No. 5. It would likely enable Burke to draft Luke Schenn’s brother, Brayden Schenn, who will almost certainly be gone before the No. 7 selection. But even that, in my opinion, will be difficult. Given the accent on player development, and the salary restrictions on entry-level personnel in the post-lockout NHL, nothing beyond short-sightedness will prompt any of the top five teams to deal their picks this year.

SKILL vs. BRAWN: Burke likely made pro sports managerial history by using the word “testosterone” during his introductory news conference at the Air Canada Centre last November. But, it clearly indicated the type of player he wants to accent in his re-shaping of the Maple Leafs. Burke gets a bad rap from those that suggest his 2007 Stanley Cup team in Anaheim was comprised of blood-thirsty behemoths. There was a fair amount of non-aggressive skill on that club (Scott Niedermayer, Teemu Selanne, Andy McDonald, Dustin Penner) and it isn’t likely that Burke will eschew small, crafty players as he builds the Leafs. But, his draft blueprint differs from the Detroit Red Wings. Never will you hear Wings’ GM Ken Holland utter the word “testosterone”. He has always instructed his scouts to concentrate on pure skill, regardless of a player’s size. And, that’s probably why the Red Wings have an astounding collection of talent that was drafted well beyond the first round.

In fact, it’s amazing to consider that among current players Nicklas Lidstrom, Chris Osgood, Tomas Holmstrom, Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall, Johan Franzen, Valtteri Filppula, Jonathan Ericsson and Darren Helm, only Kronwall was selected in the opening round. While this is obviously an extreme example, it loudly speaks to the Red Wings’ pursuit of uncompromising skill.

And, it’s the sort of bridge Burke may have to cross Friday in Montreal. What if he has a choice, say, between a rugged prospect such as Peterborough Petes’ Zack Kassian, and a more passive, highly-skilled player such as Sweden’s Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson (who is rated slightly ahead of Kassian by most scouts)? I think I know the player Detroit would select. In fact, a pair of scouts has told me in recent days that Paajarvi-Svensson is a “typical” Red Wings draft choice. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll turn into a better NHLer than Kassian, who has the potential to be a more complete player; to advance quicker to the big league; and is definitely more in the Burke mold. But, there’s a solid chance Paajarvi-Svensson’s talent will ultimately prevail.

The Leafs went a similar route last year when they chose Schenn ahead of the fleet Nikita Filatov, who was unable to crack the Columbus line-up on a full-time basis. But, what about three or four years from now? That’s the issue confronting Burke in a choice between skill and brawn.

IT WON’T SURPRISE ME IF: All of Alexei Ponikarovsky, Matt Stajan and Mikhail Grabovski are traded by Burke this summer. Not to mention at least one of Tomas Kaberle or Pavel Kubina. This may seem excessive and it might suggest to some of you that I consider these players castoffs. Not true. The reason I believe Burke may peddle the abovementioned is three-fold: a) they have varying levels of marketability, but all can still play in the NHL, assuring the Leafs of return value; b) three of the five [Ponikarovsky, Stajan and Kaberle] badly need a change of address after wallowing in team mediocrity for half-a-decade, and c) Burke cannot affect real change by hanging on to the same nucleus of veteran players. If that requires him to make a sideways move or two – change for the sake of change – then it’s something he’ll have to strongly consider. The Leafs (and their followers) have traditionally over-valued players out of concern they may go elsewhere and burst into stardom.

It’s the attitude that prevented John Ferguson, in 2006, from parting with Alex Steen in a deal that would have landed the Leafs Chris Pronger. How absurd does that sound today? Matt Stajan, similarly, is a good player and a quality person. But, he’ll never be more to the Leafs than he is right now… same with Ponikarovsky; same with Kaberle.

A change of scenery may refresh the careers of these veterans to some extent (none, I can guarantee you, will begin to contend for individual trophies) and it may provide the Leafs with ingredients they do not currently possess. It will certainly begin to alter what has proven, without question, to be a losing hand.

Grabovski is more of an isolated issue. Though he was too streaky to be a legitimate top-six forward last season, the Montreal castoff has undeniable talent and competitiveness. He is worthy of being retained as a building block for the franchise, pending his decision to seek arbitration as a method of landing a contract extension. Burke has limited patience for the arbitration process, beyond respecting its rightful place in the collective bargaining agreement. Once a player chooses that route, there is no back-pedaling – or, as Burke put it, “there will not be any settlements on the courthouse steps”. The sense I have is this: If Grabovski takes the Leafs to arbitration and wins, Burke will trade him. He won’t walk away from a ruling, which is also the Leafs’ right, but neither will he continue to look upon Grabovski as truly part of the team.

GOALTENDING QUESTION-MARKS: There’s a strong sentiment that the Leafs can jettison minor-leaguer Justin Pogge if they are successful in landing Swedish free agent Jonas Gustavsson, but I’m not certain the two are connected. In fact, the Leafs may well have to come to a decision on Pogge before Gustavsson makes a call on which NHL team he’ll join, as Pogge must be tendered a qualifying offer by July 1st. Otherwise, he, too, becomes a free agent. Sure, the presence of Gustavsson – if even close to his advance billing – will knock Pogge down a rung in the Leafs’ netminding sequence and, no, Pogge has done nothing to send Burke’s heart aflutter. But, it may be unwise to give up on the 23-year-old, simply because hanging onto him will not cause the Leafs undue economic distress. It won’t cost millions of dollars to retain Pogge, and there’s more of a trend toward a goalie coming around at a later stage of development than either a forward or a defenseman. So, strategically, it makes sense for Burke to qualify Pogge next week, and then “worry” about whether Gustavsson can supplant him in the goaltending rotation. A much bigger decision awaits Burke before next summer, as he’ll have to determine whether a sub-par performance by Vesa Toskala last season resulted from groin and hip ailments, or if the Leafs must look elsewhere for a No. 1 man. As we speak, the club has nothing but question marks pertaining to its most critical component.

THE ELEMENT OF SURPRISE: Will Burke pull off a move this summer that comes entirely out of left field in terms of speculation and gossip? Take it to the bank.

Ah yes, Berger. He's quite popular down at HB.

I don't agree with his assessment of Kassian versus MPS. But, I hope Burke takes Kassian 7th over-all.

asq2 wrote:Ah yes, Berger. He's quite popular down at HB.

I don't agree with his assessment of Kassian versus MPS. But, I hope Burke takes Kassian 7th over-all.

Or better yet, trades up for him.

Zoolander wrote:

asq2 wrote:Ah yes, Berger. He's quite popular down at HB.

I don't agree with his assessment of Kassian versus MPS. But, I hope Burke takes Kassian 7th over-all.

Or better yet, trades up for him.

Schenn + 7th to Atlanta for the 4th pick, and he takes Kassian. Then Colorado trades us the third pick for Chris Kelly.

Seriously, though, the one downside of this draft being so good is that the Leafs stand to land a really nice player.

The top-4 should be set in terms of JT, Hedman, Duchene, Kane. If LA takes Schenn, I think Phoenix takes a defenceman (they took a winger in Boedker last draft) and Burke could walk away with MPS.

If LA takes MPS, Phoenix could take Schenn (or not, which would be worse IMO) and Burke could grab a Jared Cowen (which, in a pairing with Schenn, would suck to play against), or grab OEL from under our noses.

I'm kinda hoping he takes Schroeder.