Prospecting Prospect - End of Season 18/19

I would be afraid of Rossi if we don't already pick Byfield or Stutzle or Laf. I want to draft a #1 C and personally I don't think you can have your #1 C be a small one.

Agreed. Rossi is an 8-10 pick

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:

wprager wrote:So, Marco Rossi has more goals and points than Lafreniere, with fewer games played. And Lafreniere plays in the Q where points are, historically, more plentiful.

Interesting.

Yes, but he's small and on a stacked team. Size may not translate well but he's trending to be a top-five pick.

He's one of the ones doing the stacking.

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:Agreed. Rossi is an 8-10 pick

Not suggesting anyone takes him top 3 but 8-10 might make him the steal of the draft.

Nothing about Rossi scares me.

Ev wrote:I would be afraid of Rossi if we don't already pick Byfield or Stutzle or Laf.  I want to draft a #1 C and personally I don't think you can have your #1 C be a small one.

I guess it depends on what you consider "small". There's a bunch of #1 Cs in the NHL that aren't huge, but around the 6'2 range.

But I agree, we need to fill that #1 C hole and I don't think the answer already lies within our organization, so it's gotta be done via draft/trade/free agency.

tim1_2 wrote:

Ev wrote:I would be afraid of Rossi if we don't already pick Byfield or Stutzle or Laf.  I want to draft a #1 C and personally I don't think you can have your #1 C be a small one.

I guess it depends on what you consider "small".  There's a bunch of #1 Cs in the NHL that aren't huge, but around the 6'2 range.

But I agree, we need to fill that #1 C hole and I don't think the answer already lies within our organization, so it's gotta be done via draft/trade/free agency.

Listen, if we get Byfield I am 100% happy drafting Rossi with the SJ pick. His size does scares me but it is what it is. I really won't be upset with anyone the Sens draft so long as it's not an off-the-board pick in the top-ten. My draft order:

1. Lafrenniere
2. Byfield
3. Stutzle
4. Raymond
5. Lundell
6. Rossi
7. Perfetti
8. Drysdale
9. Holtz
10. Holloway

I am not suggesting that this is the draft order, rather this is my top-ten ranking based on what I think the team needs.

Raymond is closer to 2 than he is 4 in my opinion.

Lafreniere

Byfield

Raymond

Stutzle
Lundell
Drysdale
Rossi
Holtz
Askarov

Gunler
Perfetti
Holloway
Mysak

Those are distinct tiers in my opinion and why it is so important to keep SJ no better than 6th last which I’ve mentioned before.

SJ plays 18 of their remaining games against teams currently in playoff positions, 6 against teams in the hunt (Toronto, Winnipeg, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Chicago, etc), and the remaining 8 against sellers (Anaheim x 2, NJD x 2, NYR, Ott, Mtl and LA). The Ott game has implications both ways, but otherwise we just hope for anything but OT games.

SJ may opt to trade Dillon, and they may trade Thornton and Marleau to give them one last chance at a cup. Otherwise they don't really have any trade chips aside from Melker Karlsson maybe. Teams ahead of them in the standings will get worse as they sell off their players, so those 8 or so games against the 'sellers' may be the difference between a top-three and a top-ten pick.

Selling teams usually play better after the deadline as young and hungry prospects get called and other guys get more TOI. I don’t care how the Sharks do it, they need to stay no better than 6th worst.

Hockey Reference probabilities has SJ finishing at best with 92 points and at worst with 61 points. They have a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs. 61 points would have them finishing 6th worst overall - the Sens would be tied for 4th worst overall behind Detroit, NJD (59), and Anaheim (59) with 60 points.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.fcgi

Lagoon wrote:Selling teams usually play better after the deadline as young and hungry prospects get called and other guys get more TOI. I don’t care how the Sharks do it, they need to stay no better than 6th worst.

I agree. 24 out of 32 games against playoff/bubble teams is huge for the tank. We need them to lose the games they are expected to lose and lose the games they are expected to win. Right now they have 46 points meaning hockey reference worst-case has them getting 15 of a possible 64 points to close out the season. I highly doubt that happens...

I cringe with every Sharks and Sens win.

Lagoon wrote:Raymond is closer to 2 than he is 4 in my opinion.

Lafreniere

Byfield

Raymond

Stutzle
Lundell
Drysdale
Rossi
Holtz
Askarov

Gunler
Perfetti
Holloway
Mysak

Those are distinct tiers in my opinion and why it is so important to keep SJ no better than 6th last which I’ve mentioned before.

I'm no expert but I'd have Stutzle third above Raymond and I'd have Perfetti with the second group.

No way to Raymond not being 3rd and I think Perfetti had too good of a Hlinka and they still have that in the back of their minds. And I assume you mean the 4-9 grouping.

No one has any doubt about stutzle?
He plays in an inferior league and was the go to guy for Germany. And yes, I get it. He did well on a crap team but I try not to base too much on the WJC. Some go to guys on crappy teams don’t amount to much.
I absolutely think he’ll got top 15 but I’m not sure I’d waste a top 5-8 pick on him with so many other standouts out there. I also think Perfetti should be in the second group.

Flo The Action wrote:No one has any doubt about stutzle?
He plays in an inferior league and was the go to guy for Germany. And yes, I get it. He did well on a crap team but I try not to base too much on the WJC. Some go to guys on crappy teams don’t amount to much.
I absolutely think he’ll got top 15 but I’m not sure I’d waste a top 5-8 pick on him with so many other standouts out there. I also think Perfetti should be in the second group.

He's an amazing talent. I'd be stunned if he didn't go top 4 right now. Still time for things to change in the coming months.

McKenzie’s mid season draft rankings are out and Jake Sanderson moves way up. He’s doing that on everyone’s board. #9 though? I don’t see him ahead of Lundell or Askarov, but due to Askarov’s position, it could happen.

Sanderson and Pefertti and very close to making a must draft at or before 9th stance a must draft at or before 11 motto.