They didn't just barely make it last year. Many teams don't officially clinch until the last couple games. Keep in mind the injuries (CMac, for one) and their #1 goalie being away for half the games. And they were not always outshot, their shots-against and goals-against went dramatically down from the previous season.
This season they are at or near the bottom of the league in goals for, goals against, shots against (shots for is so-so), PK, PP, SV%. They are missing Boro and Wideman. They are missing a rallying point -- no Nicholle to unite them. Karlsson has not only been affected by his off-season surgery, he's also played with very little desire in too many games. Last night, OT, was a perfect example. Pageau won the draw but the puck was a little slow getting to Karl. Instead of jumping in and grabbing the puck he stayed back waiting for it to get to him, lazily stretching his stick to it. Pageau *WON* that draw FFS!