Ottawa Senators (present and past) TIDBITS & QUICK HITS!

The org loves Brassard.  I believe he will be signed long term.

Yeah I see no reason brassard won’t be here long term

It has to give somewhere pertaining to the cap.

Oglethorpe wrote:The org loves Brassard.  I believe he will be signed long term.

I tend to agree. It's Pageau that may be moved to the wing or moved out. Logan Brown will be a center for the Sens. The lineup next year will look a lot different. My guess:

Hoffman-Duchene-Stone
Pageau-Brassard-Ryan
Smith-Brown-Dzingel
White-Thompson-Pyatt
Extra: Burrows

I think White is a top nine which to me would signal that Smith is the logical person to be moved. If the Sens can move Ceci or Phaneuf I think they will be okay cap-wise going forward, remembering that Ceci is a RFA this year and will be making at least $4M

They might be able to trade Ceci and Smith and replace them with lower priced player and get away with it. We'll see.

PTFlea wrote:They might be able to trade Ceci and Smith and replace them with lower priced player and get away with it.  We'll see.

I agree. I don't see Ceci being worth $3M a year more than Jaros. Probably an off-season trade with Ceci though (maybe for draft picks). Smith I can see being moved in-season depending on whether or not DiDomenico is for real, the emergence of White as an NHLer, etc.

PTFlea wrote:It has to give somewhere pertaining to the cap.

Yeah, and we hope that Eugene can continue to pony up the big bucks. I guess in couple years is when we start feeling the pain of the Phaneuf contract and maybe the Bobby contract (unless he keeps performing well).

Smith and Pageau have to go after next year. With Burrows that's about 9M. Wideman goes mid year for a pick this year unless Ceci is moved for a Winger this year.  I don't see Ceci starting next season with the Sens.

tim1_2 wrote:

PTFlea wrote:It has to give somewhere pertaining to the cap.

Yeah, and we hope that Eugene can continue to pony up the big bucks.  I guess in couple years is when we start feeling the pain of the Phaneuf contract and maybe the Bobby contract (unless he keeps performing well).

I think the Sens have four major decisions to make:

1) Keep Brassard or Pageau
2) Keep Phaneuf or Ceci
3) Sign or trade Karlsson
4) Trade or keep Ryan

So the question I will pose to this group is: After we saw the haul that Colorado got for Duchene, should Ottawa keep Karlsson if he's to make $12M+ per season for the next 8 years or is trading him for players and/or futures a better call given Ottawa's cap issues going forward?

Oglethorpe wrote:Smith and Pageau have to go after next year. With Burrows that's about 9M. Wideman goes mid year for a pick this year unless Ceci is moved for a Winger this year.  I don't see Ceci starting next season with the Sens.

I'll take the Pepsi challenge here and GUARANTEE the Sens will not trade Pageau. Everything you want in a third line player C.

Smith, maybe. Pageau - no way.

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:

PTFlea wrote:It has to give somewhere pertaining to the cap.

Yeah, and we hope that Eugene can continue to pony up the big bucks.  I guess in couple years is when we start feeling the pain of the Phaneuf contract and maybe the Bobby contract (unless he keeps performing well).

I think the Sens have four major decisions to make:

1) Keep Brassard or Pageau
2) Keep Phaneuf or Ceci
3) Sign or trade Karlsson
4) Trade or keep Ryan

So the question I will pose to this group is: After we saw the haul that Colorado got for Duchene, should Ottawa keep Karlsson if he's to make $12M+ per season for the next 8 years or is trading him for players and/or futures a better call given Ottawa's cap issues going forward?

Okay, I have to stop you here.

Ottawa will not trade Karlsson unless he says he won't sign here. No way, no chance.

They'll first trade Ceci - probably in the off season, then they'll investigate moving Phaneuf the summer after this one coming. Phaneuf will look attractive to some teams and will immediately relieve Ottawa of any cap issues.

Also, there's a long list of D-men coming up the pike. Harpur, Jaros, Claesson, Lajoie, Englund and then the possibility of signing a 'Michael Stone' style stop-gap.

There also won't be discussions about Ryan anytime soon. He's looked like he's rejuvenated himself and the expectations are that he and Duchene will form a tandem.

Those are my opinions and I'll stick to them

Okay, I will re-phrase the question. Are two Mark Stones worth more than one Karlsson? I am not disagreeing with you but there is a point to be made that moving Karlsson isn't the worst idea.

Personally I don't think Karlsson makes more than $11M AAV. Even $10M is a lot considering Price is making that amount, Crosby less, etc.

Players like McDavid and Matthews, are in their early 20s. Karlsson will be 29/30 when he becomes a UFA. An 8 year deal takes him to 37/38. He will be "elite" for 3-4 of those years, will eventually slow down, his body will begin to breakdown, and he will produce less.

I definitely see Karlsson with a front-loaded deal worth around $10.5M AAV, something Year 1: $15M, Year 2:$15M, Year 3:$12M, Year 4:$12M, Year 5: $10M, Year 6: $10M, Year 7: $6M, Year 8: $5M. Total 8 year $85M deal with an AAV of $10.625M.

Ottawa is at an advantage being able to offer him that extra year. Offering him that same deal over 7 years takes him to a cap hit of $12.1M which I don't think a lot of teams can afford to do. Making $5M as a 37 year old seems pretty reasonable. Hell that's what Alfie wanted!

Does this seem completely out of the question? If Karlsson asks for more than this is he worth it given his age and potential cap hit? There's a price point with every player. At some point the organization has to take that into consideration...

I'd give the odds of EK resigning here at 50-50 based on what I have heard. Term and money is not the issue. 

Players believe you have to spend to win and management knows this is a pervasive thought throughout the veterans.  

The Duchene move was a signal.  The fact you haven't heard Melnyk mention budget in a long while is not an accident.  Dorian is being aggressive for a reason.  

Expect once the agreement that the arena deal is a go that you hear whispers of a full sale by Melnyk.  

I will not say who I talk with so you can choose to believe that I am full of sh$t.

Oglethorpe wrote:Just for fund here is a quick and dirty post tax breakdown of 6M in Nashville vs Ottawa

Nashville after tax - $3,543,577.00
Ottawa after tax - $2,824,390.00

When doing the calculations an equivalent post tax take home from the Sens would be 6 x 7.5M

Who is up for that ?  

The difference is probably not as large when you take into account various schemes employed to defer/reduce income and taxes.

They are a couple more moves away, I'll agree, but I think Karlsson knows that the situation in Ottawa is as good as anywhere. It's not like he can sign with a different contending team for 11-12+ million, most teams have no chance of getting that kind of contract in there without sacrificing major talent.

Ottawa is in PERFECT position going forward to accommodate his new contract, pay the rest of the core and indoctrinate the young players into the lineup to really go for the Cup.

He must see that, right?

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:Okay, I will re-phrase the question. Are two Mark Stones worth more than one Karlsson? I am not disagreeing with you but there is a point to be made that moving Karlsson isn't the worst idea.

Personally I don't think Karlsson makes more than $11M AAV. Even $10M is a lot considering Price is making that amount, Crosby less, etc.

Players like McDavid and Matthews, are in their early 20s. Karlsson will be 29/30 when he becomes a UFA. An 8 year deal takes him to 37/38. He will be "elite" for 3-4 of those years, will eventually slow down, his body will begin to breakdown, and he will produce less.

I definitely see Karlsson with a front-loaded deal worth around $10.5M AAV, something Year 1: $15M, Year 2:$15M, Year 3:$12M, Year 4:$12M, Year 5: $10M, Year 6: $10M, Year 7: $6M, Year 8: $5M. Total 8 year $85M deal with an AAV of $10.625M.

Ottawa is at an advantage being able to offer him that extra year. Offering him that same deal over 7 years takes him to a cap hit of $12.1M which I don't think a lot of teams can afford to do. Making $5M as a 37 year old seems pretty reasonable. Hell that's what Alfie wanted!

Does this seem completely out of the question? If Karlsson asks for more than this is he worth it given his age and potential cap hit? There's a price point with every player. At some point the organization has to take that into consideration...

I'd say that there's no price point with Karlsson. This is the face of your franchise, a superstar, a top 5 player in the world. It's really no coincidence that the Senators did so well in the playoffs considering he was in beast mode.

This contract negotiation is different. It's 'blank check' areas that we haven't really experienced in Ottawa before.

The last time was probably when Muckler signed Spezza, Heatley etc. to those long, big contracts, but this player means even more to Ottawa than those two.

Oglethorpe wrote:I'd give the odds of EK resigning here at 50-50 based on what I have heard. Term and money is not the issue. 

Players believe you have to spend to win and management knows this is a pervasive thought throughout the veterans.  

The Duchene move was a signal.  The fact you haven't heard Melnyk mention budget in a long while is not an accident.  Dorian is being aggressive for a reason.  

Expect once the agreement that the arena deal is a go that you hear whispers of a full sale by Melnyk.  

I will not say who I talk with so you can choose to believe that I am full of sh$t.

Three points on this:

1) I have met his wife and am friends with others who know her. Everyone appears to have the same opinion of her. Simply put, Ottawa may be too small a city for her and it appears Karlsson is just along for the ride. New York or LA are definite possibilities for the Karlssons though I think EK would prefer to stay in Ottawa if he had it his way, which I don't think he does.... I guess we will see what happens.

2) I have also heard rumblings of Melnyk selling the team in 2-3 years once the LeBreton project begins ramp-up. Melnyk will never see money from LeBreton. It will take him too long to recuperate his investments. He will sell the team based on a future valuation which will include all of the infrastructure and projected revenues from LeBreton. Melnyk will make a fortune on this deal. Whoever buys the team may be in trouble as I am not sure the Sens fan base can support the infrastructure.

3) It is no secret that the Sens are all in right now. Everyone is signed for 2-3 years where at this point a major decision will need to be made about the direction of the team. This is why I was posing the Karlsson question. If the Sens were to trade Karlsson they can retain everyone else and add. By keeping Karlsson they can maintain pieces of their current core and supplement the rest through ELCs. However, with Ottawa stockpiling prospects my belief is that they will keep Karlsson. But their best chance to win is within the next two years. After that it will take some very creative juggling to ice a contender year after year. Ottawa will turn into Chicago where they have 4-5 players and build around them. Karlsson and Stone are the two pieces they will build around. I think they will re-sign Duchene. They gave up too much to get him. They will have roughly $25-26M locked up into three players. They will ride ELC and RFA contracts for as long as possible. It is very doable. A lot rides on the progression of Ottawa's prospects which given Ottawa's struggles in player development I have my concerns.

PTFlea wrote:

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:Okay, I will re-phrase the question. Are two Mark Stones worth more than one Karlsson? I am not disagreeing with you but there is a point to be made that moving Karlsson isn't the worst idea.

Personally I don't think Karlsson makes more than $11M AAV. Even $10M is a lot considering Price is making that amount, Crosby less, etc.

Players like McDavid and Matthews, are in their early 20s. Karlsson will be 29/30 when he becomes a UFA. An 8 year deal takes him to 37/38. He will be "elite" for 3-4 of those years, will eventually slow down, his body will begin to breakdown, and he will produce less.

I definitely see Karlsson with a front-loaded deal worth around $10.5M AAV, something Year 1: $15M, Year 2:$15M, Year 3:$12M, Year 4:$12M, Year 5: $10M, Year 6: $10M, Year 7: $6M, Year 8: $5M. Total 8 year $85M deal with an AAV of $10.625M.

Ottawa is at an advantage being able to offer him that extra year. Offering him that same deal over 7 years takes him to a cap hit of $12.1M which I don't think a lot of teams can afford to do. Making $5M as a 37 year old seems pretty reasonable. Hell that's what Alfie wanted!

Does this seem completely out of the question? If Karlsson asks for more than this is he worth it given his age and potential cap hit? There's a price point with every player. At some point the organization has to take that into consideration...

I'd say that there's no price point with Karlsson.  This is the face of your franchise, a superstar, a top 5 player in the world.  It's really no coincidence that the Senators did so well in the playoffs considering he was in beast mode.

This contract negotiation is different. It's 'blank check' areas that we haven't really experienced in Ottawa before.

The last time was probably when Muckler signed Spezza, Heatley etc. to those long, big contracts, but this player means even more to Ottawa than those two.

That was Murray.