Ottawa Senators (present and past) TIDBITS & QUICK HITS!

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:Okay, I will re-phrase the question. Are two Mark Stones worth more than one Karlsson? I am not disagreeing with you but there is a point to be made that moving Karlsson isn't the worst idea.

Personally I don't think Karlsson makes more than $11M AAV. Even $10M is a lot considering Price is making that amount, Crosby less, etc.

Players like McDavid and Matthews, are in their early 20s. Karlsson will be 29/30 when he becomes a UFA. An 8 year deal takes him to 37/38. He will be "elite" for 3-4 of those years, will eventually slow down, his body will begin to breakdown, and he will produce less.

I definitely see Karlsson with a front-loaded deal worth around $10.5M AAV, something Year 1: $15M, Year 2:$15M, Year 3:$12M, Year 4:$12M, Year 5: $10M, Year 6: $10M, Year 7: $6M, Year 8: $5M. Total 8 year $85M deal with an AAV of $10.625M.

Ottawa is at an advantage being able to offer him that extra year. Offering him that same deal over 7 years takes him to a cap hit of $12.1M which I don't think a lot of teams can afford to do. Making $5M as a 37 year old seems pretty reasonable. Hell that's what Alfie wanted!

Does this seem completely out of the question? If Karlsson asks for more than this is he worth it given his age and potential cap hit? There's a price point with every player. At some point the organization has to take that into consideration...

I'd say that there's no price point with Karlsson. This is the face of your franchise, a superstar, a top 5 player in the world. It's really no coincidence that the Senators did so well in the playoffs considering he was in beast mode.

This contract negotiation is different. It's 'blank check' areas that we haven't really experienced in Ottawa before.

The last time was probably when Muckler signed Spezza, Heatley etc. to those long, big contracts, but this player means even more to Ottawa than those two.

Oglethorpe wrote:I'd give the odds of EK resigning here at 50-50 based on what I have heard. Term and money is not the issue. 

Players believe you have to spend to win and management knows this is a pervasive thought throughout the veterans.  

The Duchene move was a signal.  The fact you haven't heard Melnyk mention budget in a long while is not an accident.  Dorian is being aggressive for a reason.  

Expect once the agreement that the arena deal is a go that you hear whispers of a full sale by Melnyk.  

I will not say who I talk with so you can choose to believe that I am full of sh$t.

Three points on this:

1) I have met his wife and am friends with others who know her. Everyone appears to have the same opinion of her. Simply put, Ottawa may be too small a city for her and it appears Karlsson is just along for the ride. New York or LA are definite possibilities for the Karlssons though I think EK would prefer to stay in Ottawa if he had it his way, which I don't think he does.... I guess we will see what happens.

2) I have also heard rumblings of Melnyk selling the team in 2-3 years once the LeBreton project begins ramp-up. Melnyk will never see money from LeBreton. It will take him too long to recuperate his investments. He will sell the team based on a future valuation which will include all of the infrastructure and projected revenues from LeBreton. Melnyk will make a fortune on this deal. Whoever buys the team may be in trouble as I am not sure the Sens fan base can support the infrastructure.

3) It is no secret that the Sens are all in right now. Everyone is signed for 2-3 years where at this point a major decision will need to be made about the direction of the team. This is why I was posing the Karlsson question. If the Sens were to trade Karlsson they can retain everyone else and add. By keeping Karlsson they can maintain pieces of their current core and supplement the rest through ELCs. However, with Ottawa stockpiling prospects my belief is that they will keep Karlsson. But their best chance to win is within the next two years. After that it will take some very creative juggling to ice a contender year after year. Ottawa will turn into Chicago where they have 4-5 players and build around them. Karlsson and Stone are the two pieces they will build around. I think they will re-sign Duchene. They gave up too much to get him. They will have roughly $25-26M locked up into three players. They will ride ELC and RFA contracts for as long as possible. It is very doable. A lot rides on the progression of Ottawa's prospects which given Ottawa's struggles in player development I have my concerns.

PTFlea wrote:

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:Okay, I will re-phrase the question. Are two Mark Stones worth more than one Karlsson? I am not disagreeing with you but there is a point to be made that moving Karlsson isn't the worst idea.

Personally I don't think Karlsson makes more than $11M AAV. Even $10M is a lot considering Price is making that amount, Crosby less, etc.

Players like McDavid and Matthews, are in their early 20s. Karlsson will be 29/30 when he becomes a UFA. An 8 year deal takes him to 37/38. He will be "elite" for 3-4 of those years, will eventually slow down, his body will begin to breakdown, and he will produce less.

I definitely see Karlsson with a front-loaded deal worth around $10.5M AAV, something Year 1: $15M, Year 2:$15M, Year 3:$12M, Year 4:$12M, Year 5: $10M, Year 6: $10M, Year 7: $6M, Year 8: $5M. Total 8 year $85M deal with an AAV of $10.625M.

Ottawa is at an advantage being able to offer him that extra year. Offering him that same deal over 7 years takes him to a cap hit of $12.1M which I don't think a lot of teams can afford to do. Making $5M as a 37 year old seems pretty reasonable. Hell that's what Alfie wanted!

Does this seem completely out of the question? If Karlsson asks for more than this is he worth it given his age and potential cap hit? There's a price point with every player. At some point the organization has to take that into consideration...

I'd say that there's no price point with Karlsson.  This is the face of your franchise, a superstar, a top 5 player in the world.  It's really no coincidence that the Senators did so well in the playoffs considering he was in beast mode.

This contract negotiation is different. It's 'blank check' areas that we haven't really experienced in Ottawa before.

The last time was probably when Muckler signed Spezza, Heatley etc. to those long, big contracts, but this player means even more to Ottawa than those two.

That was Murray.

* wrong thread, post moved *

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:

Oglethorpe wrote:I'd give the odds of EK resigning here at 50-50 based on what I have heard. Term and money is not the issue. 

Players believe you have to spend to win and management knows this is a pervasive thought throughout the veterans.  

The Duchene move was a signal.  The fact you haven't heard Melnyk mention budget in a long while is not an accident.  Dorian is being aggressive for a reason.  

Expect once the agreement that the arena deal is a go that you hear whispers of a full sale by Melnyk.  

I will not say who I talk with so you can choose to believe that I am full of sh$t.

Three points on this:

1) I have met his wife and am friends with others who know her. Everyone appears to have the same opinion of her. Simply put, Ottawa may be too small a city for her and it appears Karlsson is just along for the ride. New York or LA are definite possibilities for the Karlssons though I think EK would prefer to stay in Ottawa if he had it his way, which I don't think he does.... I guess we will see what happens.

2) I have also heard rumblings of Melnyk selling the team in 2-3 years once the LeBreton project begins ramp-up. Melnyk will never see money from LeBreton. It will take him too long to recuperate his investments. He will sell the team based on a future valuation which will include all of the infrastructure and projected revenues from LeBreton. Melnyk will make a fortune on this deal. Whoever buys the team may be in trouble as I am not sure the Sens fan base can support the infrastructure.  

3) It is no secret that the Sens are all in right now. Everyone is signed for 2-3 years where at this point a major decision will need to be made about the direction of the team. This is why I was posing the Karlsson question. If the Sens were to trade Karlsson they can retain everyone else and add. By keeping Karlsson they can maintain pieces of their current core and supplement the rest through ELCs. However, with Ottawa stockpiling prospects my belief is that they will keep Karlsson. But their best chance to win is within the next two years. After that it will take some very creative juggling to ice a contender year after year. Ottawa will turn into Chicago where they have 4-5 players and build around them. Karlsson and Stone are the two pieces they will build around. I think they will re-sign Duchene. They gave up too much to get him. They will have roughly $25-26M locked up into three players. They will ride ELC and RFA contracts for as long as possible. It is very doable. A lot rides on the progression of Ottawa's prospects which given Ottawa's struggles in player development I have my concerns.  

Il tell you one good reason why the Sens will resign Karlsson. The monetary value he has to the team. The sale of the franchise by Melnyk will be a lot easier if there is a karlsson in Ottawa. Without him and that valuation goes down.

Everyone can say what they want about his wife. Maybe she’s got an inflated ego, maybe she thinks she’s to good for Ottawa. People talk Dung. Even his wife might. But when it comes to signing an 8 year deal I think it will be between karlsson, his agent and the Sens. Never underestimate the agent’s push to get an 8 year deal done. He gets a percentage off those millions and an 8 year deal is money in his bank account.

All that said, Melnyk runs the org like a Buffon. There has been tension between karlsson wanting to win and what the org has done in the past. I think the org does have to prove to him the team is in a win now and win for a long time frMe of mind. Keeping white, brown, chabot and all the other prospects that have done well is a signal that we stand a chance to be good for a long time.

All this said but I would agree with the point that we cannot loose karlsson for nothing. If for whatever reason he decides he wants to walk then a move has to be made next summer to maximize his return value. It could set us up for years to come. No denying him. But he’ll have to get traded to an org he’s willing to resign with, no one will want to pay the cost that it will take if they don’t know if they can resign him.

Flo The Action wrote:

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:

Oglethorpe wrote:I'd give the odds of EK resigning here at 50-50 based on what I have heard. Term and money is not the issue. 

Players believe you have to spend to win and management knows this is a pervasive thought throughout the veterans.  

The Duchene move was a signal.  The fact you haven't heard Melnyk mention budget in a long while is not an accident.  Dorian is being aggressive for a reason.  

Expect once the agreement that the arena deal is a go that you hear whispers of a full sale by Melnyk.  

I will not say who I talk with so you can choose to believe that I am full of sh$t.

Three points on this:

1) I have met his wife and am friends with others who know her. Everyone appears to have the same opinion of her. Simply put, Ottawa may be too small a city for her and it appears Karlsson is just along for the ride. New York or LA are definite possibilities for the Karlssons though I think EK would prefer to stay in Ottawa if he had it his way, which I don't think he does.... I guess we will see what happens.

2) I have also heard rumblings of Melnyk selling the team in 2-3 years once the LeBreton project begins ramp-up. Melnyk will never see money from LeBreton. It will take him too long to recuperate his investments. He will sell the team based on a future valuation which will include all of the infrastructure and projected revenues from LeBreton. Melnyk will make a fortune on this deal. Whoever buys the team may be in trouble as I am not sure the Sens fan base can support the infrastructure.  

3) It is no secret that the Sens are all in right now. Everyone is signed for 2-3 years where at this point a major decision will need to be made about the direction of the team. This is why I was posing the Karlsson question. If the Sens were to trade Karlsson they can retain everyone else and add. By keeping Karlsson they can maintain pieces of their current core and supplement the rest through ELCs. However, with Ottawa stockpiling prospects my belief is that they will keep Karlsson. But their best chance to win is within the next two years. After that it will take some very creative juggling to ice a contender year after year. Ottawa will turn into Chicago where they have 4-5 players and build around them. Karlsson and Stone are the two pieces they will build around. I think they will re-sign Duchene. They gave up too much to get him. They will have roughly $25-26M locked up into three players. They will ride ELC and RFA contracts for as long as possible. It is very doable. A lot rides on the progression of Ottawa's prospects which given Ottawa's struggles in player development I have my concerns.  

Il tell you one good reason why the Sens will resign Karlsson. The monetary value he has to the team. The sale of the franchise by Melnyk will be a lot easier if there is a karlsson in Ottawa. Without him and that valuation goes down.

Everyone can say what they want about his wife. Maybe she’s got an inflated ego, maybe she thinks she’s to good for Ottawa. People talk Dung. Even his wife might. But when it comes to signing an 8 year deal I think it will be between karlsson, his agent and the Sens. Never underestimate the agent’s push to get an 8 year deal done. He gets a percentage off those millions and an 8 year deal is money in his bank account.

All that said, Melnyk runs the org like a Buffon. There has been tension between karlsson wanting to win and what the org has done in the past. I think the org does have to prove to him the team is in a win now and win for a long time frMe of mind. Keeping white, brown, chabot and all the other prospects that have done well is a signal that we stand a chance to be good for a long time.

All this said but I would agree with the point that we cannot loose karlsson for nothing. If for whatever reason he decides he wants to walk then a move has to be made next summer to maximize his return value. It could set us up for years to come. No denying him. But he’ll have to get traded to an org he’s willing to resign with, no one will want to pay the cost that it will take if they don’t know if they can resign him.

This to say that premier players in the league typically don't walk. Swedes have historically been loyal players to their organizations. Let's hope for the best.

Karlsson's wife is from Ottawa, not an issue.

Her dad is a big insurance guy here too, I don't see it. She's like the Queen of Ottawa.

PTFlea wrote:Her dad is a big insurance guy here too, I don't see it.  She's like the Queen of Ottawa.

Big fish in the small pond, small fish in the big pond.

Flo The Action wrote:

PTFlea wrote:Her dad is a big insurance guy here too, I don't see it.  She's like the Queen of Ottawa.

Big fish in the small pond, small fish in the big pond.

Yeah

I am getting excited about what Dorion is doing.  Can't wait to add Chabot, Jarod, White and Formenton to the lineup over the next couple years. Speed all over the lineup allows you to have the Phaneuf, Ryan Stones and Browns around without becoming a slow team

PTFlea wrote:

Flo The Action wrote:

PTFlea wrote:Her dad is a big insurance guy here too, I don't see it.  She's like the Queen of Ottawa.

Big fish in the small pond, small fish in the big pond.

Yeah

Which would you rather be?

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:

PTFlea wrote:

Flo The Action wrote:

PTFlea wrote:Her dad is a big insurance guy here too, I don't see it.  She's like the Queen of Ottawa.

Big fish in the small pond, small fish in the big pond.

Yeah

Which would you rather be?

I'm not really that type of person that would care, but I'd probably rather have a family in Ottawa. I'd love going with Erik to new York etc though.

I realize what's bugging me about this, I assume I knew all along. The acquisition is awesome, but in my fantasy world we added Duchene to the existing roster, so he's Turris' winger.

I guess the good news is Dorion is saying he's looking for another forward.

PTFlea wrote:I guess the good news is Dorion is saying he's looking for another forward.

There's certainly no rush though. Another forward could come in the form of a healthy Colin White (or whoever) from Belleville eventually.

tim1_2 wrote:

PTFlea wrote:I guess the good news is Dorion is saying he's looking for another forward.

There's certainly no rush though.  Another forward could come in the form of a healthy Colin White (or whoever) from Belleville eventually.

I would assume White will be more of a 3rd/4th liner. What Ottawa needs right now is a top six LW to go with Duchene or Brassard.

A healthy Clarke MacArthur would have been so nice.