FINAL 3 Ottawa Senators @ 0 NY Rangers Jan 12, 2012 7pm.

spader wrote:

NEELY wrote:Even then they need to win another 3 in a row and Otawa lose 3 in a row for them to touch them in the standings... not gonna happen.

Ha. Ya. They have to be "in a row" because...why exactly? They can't win 3 more out of the remaining 30+ games?

exactly, its not like we are in the final 10 games of the season... 30+ games still leaves a lot of room for fluctuation.

spader wrote:

NEELY wrote:Even then they need to win another 3 in a row and Otawa lose 3 in a row for them to touch them in the standings... not gonna happen.

Ha. Ya. They have to be "in a row" because...why exactly? They can't win 3 more out of the remaining 30+ games?

Kind of missed the point there. Anyways, if Ottawa beats the Jets Monday night there's basically no chance the Jets touch them in the standings. That was my original statement. 10 points or more and it's over.

KidKarlsson wrote:

spader wrote:

NEELY wrote:Even then they need to win another 3 in a row and Otawa lose 3 in a row for them to touch them in the standings... not gonna happen.

Ha. Ya. They have to be "in a row" because...why exactly? They can't win 3 more out of the remaining 30+ games?

exactly, its not like we are in the final 10 games of the season... 30+ games still leaves a lot of room for fluctuation.

No, it really doesn't. 3 point games all the time, teams playing back to backs on a lot of nights down the stretch, 10 points is close to impossible to overcome at the top of the standings with less than 1/2 a year to go.

NEELY wrote:

spader wrote:

NEELY wrote:Even then they need to win another 3 in a row and Otawa lose 3 in a row for them to touch them in the standings... not gonna happen.

Ha. Ya. They have to be "in a row" because...why exactly? They can't win 3 more out of the remaining 30+ games?

Kind of missed the point there. Anyways, if Ottawa beats the Jets Monday night there's basically no chance the Jets touch them in the standings. That was my original statement. 10 points or more and it's over.

Ha. I missed the point?

This team appears built to never quit though - and they'll still need to play as hard as possible every night.

Playoffs....dare to dream?

Turris is another guy who impressed. Looking like a really solid player.

SpezDispenser wrote:

NEELY wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:

NEELY wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:I still want to just make the playoffs. Everything else we'll deal with later...just make it in at this point.

Unless a major injury hits or they somehow go on some wierd, extended losing streak, they are a playoff team. How people still doubt that at this point is beyond my understanding.

It's not like it's a guarantee by any stretch.

Pretty close at this point. Besides the 1-5 start Ottawa has been a top 5 team in the NHL on a pretty consistant basis. Win can't catch them, Montreal can't, Tampa, NYI, Carlolina, Buffalo can't either. Double digits is next to impossible to over come with less than 1/2 the season left.

I guess...I can't bring myself to get too excited until the end of January. Still seems surreal.

Every month they improved a little. Right after New Year's I did a little math, and if we got 16 points in January we'd be on a 92 or 94-point pace, which is good enough for 8th most years. Right now they have 11 points in 6 games in January. They have 8 games remaining to get 5 points. With stops in Anaheim, Phoenix, Montreal, LA and Toronto, and a home date with Winnipeg, we should be able to win 3 of those games. I think getting 16 points in January is close to a guarantee at this point, and with the way Anderson is playing now I think the upside is much, much higher. We are 2 points out of 4th.

And as for Boston, the won 2-1 in Montreal on a weird bounce off the glass (Price went behind the net, puck came out right to the crease for a tap-in on an empty net) and a top-six forward traded half way through the game. Since the 9-0 drubbing of the Flames, the Bruins lost to Vancouver, scored a 3rd period come-back win against the Jets, and last night's squeaker against those powerful smurfs in bleu-blanc-rouge.

I'm not saying Boston is weak or even weakening, but they have had games where they've shown an ability to come out flat. Ignoring their poor start in October, they have scored a shootout win against Columbus at home, a 1-0 win in Montreal, a shootout against Buffalo, a shootout loss to Detroit, a loss in Winnipeg, a home loss to Florida, an OT win in Phoenix, the aforementioned squeakers against the Habs, and losses to Dallas and Vancouver.

Of course, no team is going to win 82 games in convincing fashion, nor is it unheard of for the best team to have a clunker and lose to the worst team. And Ottawa has had their share of clunkers against weaker opponents, too. All I'm saying is that Boston will be in a fight in the third, and they better have a lead because I don't think they will be scoring any 3rd period come backs against Ottawa.

Chris Schwarz for MVP? (Most Valuable Physio guy)

One thing I've been watching closely over the last few weeks is the Sens goal differential. We're now only a -1 for goals for vs. goals against. The last season we made the playoffs I believe we were a minus in the double digits in goal differential.

spader wrote:

NEELY wrote:If Ottawa beats the Jets on Monday, that burries the Jets in terms of them finishing ahead of Ottawa.

Go look at the standings... Buffalo and Montreal are what? 13 and 14 points back? You know the two teams that were supposed to be playoff guarantees.

Even if people use the games in hand thing, those teams have to win all of their games to jump ahead of the Sens and that's not going to happen.

If they win all their games in hand, they still won't even tie the Sens, let alone jump ahead of them.

Still, there's lots of hockey to be played. Saying that the Jets' chances of catching up will be buried at this stage in the season is ridiculous. It's unlikely that they'll catch up, but it's definitely not a sure thing yet.

Have you looked at the Jets' travel schedule? They have 19 games left at home and 20 on the road. It's 3,645 to Sunrise, 3,300 to Tampa, 2,781 to Raleigh and 2,516 to Washington. Those are the Division rivals. Ottawa's travel distances are roughly an order of magnitude shorter. That's huge in the second half, especially for a team formerly used to the mild weather in Georgia.

spader wrote:
Weren't the NJD in dead last when they started that run? Either way, if WPG wins both games-in-hand (not at all out of the question), they're only 5 points behind. Not exactly insurmountable.

Jan.13, 2011, the Devils were, indeed, last in the league (24 points versus Edmonton and NYI at 33):

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20102011&type=CON&date=01/13/2011

I think NEELY should stop bringing up the Devils' example because that was a huge anomaly both in how bad they were to start, and how well they played to finish. If Winnipeg went on a 22-2 or whatever streak they would be leading their Division and at least second in the Conference.

wprager wrote:Have you looked at the Jets' travel schedule? They have 19 games left at home and 20 on the road. It's 3,645 to Sunrise, 3,300 to Tampa, 2,781 to Raleigh and 2,516 to Washington. Those are the Division rivals. Ottawa's travel distances are roughly an order of magnitude shorter. That's huge in the second half, especially for a team formerly used to the mild weather in Georgia.

Yeah, but those aren't games against tough opponents (other than maybe Florida? WTF?). I'd like to have a pile of games against TB and Carolina left. I wouldn't make too much fuss about the travel schedule. It's not like they're taking the Greyhound.

The only risk to Ottawa right now is having a let down. A 5-game losing streak (or an extended period of more losses than wins) could let Washington, Pittsburgh, AND Winnipeg catch up, especially since those teams have games in hand (Washington has FOUR games in hand). So there still is lots of potential to slip in the standings......all based on Ottawa's ability to keep playing well. And what reason do we have to believe that Ottawa WON'T continue to play well? Everybody seems to be rolling. Perhaps our biggest risk is any serious injury to Michalek, Spezza, The Alfie, and/or .

KidKarlsson wrote:its way to early to be saying teams like WPG cant catch us, cmon guys all it takes is a hot streak by another team and a cold streak by us and we could still fall. Lets not get cocky. One game at a time. I still have faith we can iwn the division

I know you are saying that tongue-in-cheek, but Ottawa is just 3 points back. The Bruins are going on a 4 game road trip themselves and I can seem them losing a couple of games before we meet up. Boston has a week off between games when they play us (they play in Washington on the 24th before coming home to face the Sens on the 31st) -- it will be a classic rest versus rust scenario. The Sens' conditioning is top-notch. They have a chance.

It's a huge stretch, but they *could be* leading the Division by the end of the month.

spader wrote:

NEELY wrote:Even then they need to win another 3 in a row and Otawa lose 3 in a row for them to touch them in the standings... not gonna happen.

Ha. Ya. They have to be "in a row" because...why exactly? They can't win 3 more out of the remaining 30+ games?

Because if they aren't in a row the end of the season gets closer and closer, and they are still behind. Hard to win a lot of games without going on a streak, and as streaks go, 3 in a row is fairly short.

NEELY wrote:

KidKarlsson wrote:

spader wrote:

NEELY wrote:Even then they need to win another 3 in a row and Otawa lose 3 in a row for them to touch them in the standings... not gonna happen.

Ha. Ya. They have to be "in a row" because...why exactly? They can't win 3 more out of the remaining 30+ games?

exactly, its not like we are in the final 10 games of the season... 30+ games still leaves a lot of room for fluctuation.

No, it really doesn't. 3 point games all the time, teams playing back to backs on a lot of nights down the stretch, 10 points is close to impossible to overcome at the top of the standings with less than 1/2 a year to go.

You are correct in the context of the Jets catching the Sens (4 teams to leapfrog). But Jest getting into a playoff spot is just 2 teams. Difficult, but not impossible.

tim1_2 wrote:

wprager wrote:Have you looked at the Jets' travel schedule? They have 19 games left at home and 20 on the road. It's 3,645 to Sunrise, 3,300 to Tampa, 2,781 to Raleigh and 2,516 to Washington. Those are the Division rivals. Ottawa's travel distances are roughly an order of magnitude shorter. That's huge in the second half, especially for a team formerly used to the mild weather in Georgia.

Yeah, but those aren't games against tough opponents (other than maybe Florida? WTF?). I'd like to have a pile of games against TB and Carolina left. I wouldn't make too much fuss about the travel schedule. It's not like they're taking the Greyhound.

The only risk to Ottawa right now is having a let down. A 5-game losing streak (or an extended period of more losses than wins) could let Washington, Pittsburgh, AND Winnipeg catch up, especially since those teams have games in hand (Washington has FOUR games in hand). So there still is lots of potential to slip in the standings......all based on Ottawa's ability to keep playing well. And what reason do we have to believe that Ottawa WON'T continue to play well? Everybody seems to be rolling. Perhaps our biggest risk is any serious injury to Michalek, Spezza, The Alfie, and/or .

Ottawa's already had injuries to Alfie, Michalek and Kuba -- all big cogs in the machine. Even when Karlsson missed a game they scored a bunch of goals (just one game, true). The only injury they haven't had to deal with is their #1. That would be serious, but then they would bring in Lehner. And the second half schedule will be lighter (given all those games in hand), which makes it easier on a rookie goalie.

wprager wrote:

NEELY wrote:Ottawa can compete with any team in the East right now other than Boston. Best spot for Ottawa to finish would probably be 6th but that would mean a 2nd round meeting with Boston... for an extended run probably 4th as that mean they probably won't end up playing Boston in the 1st or 2nd round but Philly or NYR is a much harder out than Florida.

I want them to play Toronto at some point. If the beat the Leafs in the 1st and then are out in the 2nd I'll be OK. There are still players on this team who remember.

As for Boston, I still maintain they cannot keep this up for close to 200 games. This isn't the '70s when guys could start training in training camp,smoke in-between periods, and still win 4 Cups in a row.

not me. They haven't beat the Leafs in the playoffs. I'm sure they're still in our head.

SpezDispenser wrote:

spader wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:

NEELY wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:I still want to just make the playoffs. Everything else we'll deal with later...just make it in at this point.

Unless a major injury hits or they somehow go on some wierd, extended losing streak, they are a playoff team. How people still doubt that at this point is beyond my understanding.

It's not like it's a guarantee by any stretch.

Ha. Neely only speaks in guarantees.

Doesn't that mean he's a Sith or something?

Darth Azzeps

Number Twenty Nine wrote:

wprager wrote:

NEELY wrote:Ottawa can compete with any team in the East right now other than Boston. Best spot for Ottawa to finish would probably be 6th but that would mean a 2nd round meeting with Boston... for an extended run probably 4th as that mean they probably won't end up playing Boston in the 1st or 2nd round but Philly or NYR is a much harder out than Florida.

I want them to play Toronto at some point. If the beat the Leafs in the 1st and then are out in the 2nd I'll be OK. There are still players on this team who remember.

As for Boston, I still maintain they cannot keep this up for close to 200 games. This isn't the '70s when guys could start training in training camp,smoke in-between periods, and still win 4 Cups in a row.

not me. They haven't beat the Leafs in the playoffs. I'm sure they're still in our head.

No Redden, Fisher, Kelly, Hossa, Havlat, Lalime. Also no Roberts, Tucker, Domi, Sundin. Guys like Greening, Condra, Smith, Karlsson, Anderson, Michalek, Turris, Gonchar, Kuba have no recollection of any of that. Same for Carkner/Konopka (the tough guys). It would be primarily for the fans.