You Call 'em

SpezDispenser wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:
Dude, if you thought Gonchar was putting up 60+ points last year, you were out to lunch / the mayor of Homerville. With his age, he's pretty much guaranteed to miss 10+ games a season at this point. 45-50 points in 65-70 games would have been a very good season from him for us, and about the best we could have expected.

And the point I was making was, if Gonchar was still Norris-calibre material, i.e., putting up 60+ points a year, why the hell wouldn't PIT -- who saw him play for them for 5 years -- want to bring that back, instead of giving that same money to Paul Martin? The fact that PIT, a recent Stanley Cup winner, walked away him told me everything I needed to know in terms of what to expect.

We should be elated if Gonchar ever puts up 50 points again. I'm not sure I see him topping 40-45 again, really -- durability issues + no Crosby & Malkin on the Sens. But expecting 60+ points "as a bare minimum" is asinine.

The stats don't lie, there was no reason to think he couldn't have matched what he did in Pittsburgh.

His pace the year we signed him was ~65 points, same the year before, and the year before and the year before.

I also said, and I quote, "even if it was extrapolated over 82 games". So even if he didn't hit the 60 plateau, I expected the numbers to be there if you extrapolated them.

And don't be too quick in dismissing Pittsburgh's interest in Gonchar, they wanted him badly, but they couldn't/wouldn't commit to the 3rd year.

Basically what I'm saying is: it's nothing more than your opinion that he wouldn't hit 60 points in Ottawa (discounting what we know now of course), the numbers were there to completely back up a 60 point (or the equivalent) season in Ottawa.

Okay then, at least I took the time to explain to you why I felt he could hit 60 points, I guess you either don't care, or agree with me.

SpezDispenser wrote:Okay then, at least I took the time to explain to you why I felt he could hit 60 points, I guess you either don't care, or agree with me.

I happen to think that having Crosby and Malkin on the PP with you, for every shift, helps to pad your offensive stats.

No one in their right mind should have expected Gonchar to score at the same pace for us, because we just don't have those big guns. At best, he can put up 45-50 points for us, which is nothing to sneeze at and something we desperately need. But 60+ point expectations needed to be laid aside at the moment of signing. Just like 70+ point expectations for Kovalev were totally unrealistic.

This is why so many OTT fans are disappointed in their team and their players. They have super unrealistic expectations. Take Butler and Filatov, for instance. If each of those guys has a 15-20 goal / 40-50 point season this year, that should be viewed as a huge step forward. But, if we're lucky and something like that happens, will most people see it that way? I doubt it.

rooneypoo wrote:
I happen to think that having Crosby and Malkin on the PP with you, for every helps, helps to pad your offensive stats.

No one in their right mind should have expected Gonchar to score at the same pace for us, because we just don't have those big guns. At best, he can put up 45-50 points for us, which is nothing to sneeze at and something we desperately need. But 60+ point expectations needed to be laid aside at the moment of signing. Just like 70+ point expectations for Kovalev were totally unrealistic.

This is why so many OTT fans are disappointed in their team and their players. They have super unrealistic expectations. Take Butler and Filatov, for instance. If each of those guys has a 15-20 goal / 40-50 point season this year, that should be viewed as a huge step forward. But, if we're lucky and something like that happens, will most people see it that way? I doubt it.

Yes, I accept Crosby and Malkin play into it, but no, I still don't buy that Gonchar couldn't have hit 60. He's got a long history of playing to a 60 point potential each year, whether it's with Pittsburgh or Washington. Perhaps 60 is stretching it slightly, but mid 50s at the least would have been the guess - and I would imagine was the projection from most publications.

Spezza, Alfredsson, Kovalev (who's a PP God until recently), those three plus Gonchar and Karlsson should have paved the road to a high point total - and again, Gonchar can manufacture his own offense - always has.

As for Butler, I would heavily suggest he hits 20-25 goals, otherwise, he'll be replaced next year by Silfverberg or Zibanejad next season. This is his chance - and it's a big one. I won't be the one disappointed, it'll be Butler who finds himself without a permanent spot on line 1 or 2 if he fails to score at a 20 goal slip (that's 1 goal in every 4 games, I would again, heavily suggest he hit that mark).

I doubt a RW is replaced by a C (which is the natural position of both of Mika Zibanejad and Jacob Silfverberg). Regin, Smith, Winchester and Konopka are the guys that will be replaced when the time comes.

Foligno is pretty much the only winger that has a spot to lose. He's had, what, 5 years to prove he is a top 6. Otherwise he will be an overpaid bottom 6.

I think the time to demote Alfredsson is coming. Limit him to pretty much only PP and PK. Prevent unnecessary injuries, which is almost a foregone conclusion.

rooneypoo wrote:This is why so many OTT fans are disappointed in their team and their players. They have super unrealistic expectations. Take Butler and Filatov, for instance. If each of those guys has a 15-20 goal / 40-50 point season this year, that should be viewed as a huge step forward. But, if we're lucky and something like that happens, will most people see it that way? I doubt it.

If each of those guys has a 40-50 point season, Hemlock will drink a glass I'll be ecstatic.

Dash wrote:I doubt a RW is replaced by a C (which is the natural position of both of Mika Zibanejad and Jacob Silfverberg). Regin, Smith, Winchester and Konopka are the guys that will be replaced when the time comes.

Foligno is pretty much the only winger that has a spot to lose. He's had, what, 5 years to prove he is a top 6. Otherwise he will be an overpaid bottom 6.

I think the time to demote Alfredsson is coming. Limit him to pretty much only PP and PK. Prevent unnecessary injuries, which is almost a foregone conclusion.

Silf moves around equally from C to RW to LW and Zibanejad could be moved to the wing when he makes NA IMO.

I think it'll end up that Zibanejad will play 2nd line C, but I would bet good hard $$ that Silfverberg takes one of the top 6 wing spots.

So...who will it be?

1.Filatov
2.Butler
3.Michalek
4.Alfredsson?

All I have to say is: Butler and Filatov better have a good year this year.

SpezDispenser wrote:

Dash wrote:I doubt a RW is replaced by a C (which is the natural position of both of Mika Zibanejad and Jacob Silfverberg). Regin, Smith, Winchester and Konopka are the guys that will be replaced when the time comes.

Foligno is pretty much the only winger that has a spot to lose. He's had, what, 5 years to prove he is a top 6. Otherwise he will be an overpaid bottom 6.

I think the time to demote Alfredsson is coming. Limit him to pretty much only PP and PK. Prevent unnecessary injuries, which is almost a foregone conclusion.

Silf moves around equally from C to RW to LW and Zibanejad could be moved to the wing when he makes NA IMO.

I think it'll end up that Zibanejad will play 2nd line C, but I would bet good hard $$ that Silfverberg takes one of the top 6 wing spots.

So...who will it be?

1.Filatov
2.Butler
3.Michalek
4.Alfredsson?

All I have to say is: Butler and Filatov better have a good year this year.

I'll be a bit surprised if this isn't Alfie's last year.

spader wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:This is why so many OTT fans are disappointed in their team and their players. They have super unrealistic expectations. Take Butler and Filatov, for instance. If each of those guys has a 15-20 goal / 40-50 point season this year, that should be viewed as a huge step forward. But, if we're lucky and something like that happens, will most people see it that way? I doubt it.

If each of those guys has a 40-50 point season, Hemlock will drink a glass I'll be ecstatic.

As you should be. It would be a step in the right direction for either/both. This is what I mean in terms of defining realistic parameters for a player's "success." Expecting a guy who's never played a full season of NHL hockey in his life to step in and score 25+ goals is ridiculous. So is expecting a 35+ D to step in and produce 60+ points.

Butler and Filatov will, best case scenario, have their ups and downs throughout the season, and Gonchar, best case scenario, will miss a few games and lose another step or two throughout the season. If the first two have something like 15G/35P or 20G/40P seasons, and the third has a 40+P season, then they would have all had successful seasons. Anything over that is gravy, and a pleasant surprise. But expecting anything beyond that is misguided in the extreme, and setting yourself up to be disappointed in the player and the team.

rooneypoo wrote:

spader wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:This is why so many OTT fans are disappointed in their team and their players. They have super unrealistic expectations. Take Butler and Filatov, for instance. If each of those guys has a 15-20 goal / 40-50 point season this year, that should be viewed as a huge step forward. But, if we're lucky and something like that happens, will most people see it that way? I doubt it.

If each of those guys has a 40-50 point season, Hemlock will drink a glass I'll be ecstatic.

As you should be. It would be a step in the right direction for either/both. This is what I mean in terms of defining realistic parameters for a player's "success." Expecting a guy who's never played a full season of NHL hockey in his life to step in and score 25+ goals is ridiculous. So is expecting a 35+ D to step in and produce 60+ points.

Butler and Filatov will, best case scenario, have their ups and downs throughout the season, and Gonchar, best case scenario, will miss a few games and lose another step or two throughout the season. If the first two have something like 15G/35P or 20G/40P seasons, and the third has a 40+P season, then they would have all had successful seasons. Anything over that is gravy, and a pleasant surprise. But expecting anything beyond that is misguided in the extreme, and setting yourself up to be disappointed in the player and the team.

You gonna call it? What are your projections for those 3 guys this year? Remember where you are.

I'll call it:

Butler 24 goals (on pace for a lot more and tails off)

Filatov no idea.

Gonchar 65 games played - 40 points exactly.

spader wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

spader wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:This is why so many OTT fans are disappointed in their team and their players. They have super unrealistic expectations. Take Butler and Filatov, for instance. If each of those guys has a 15-20 goal / 40-50 point season this year, that should be viewed as a huge step forward. But, if we're lucky and something like that happens, will most people see it that way? I doubt it.

If each of those guys has a 40-50 point season, Hemlock will drink a glass I'll be ecstatic.

As you should be. It would be a step in the right direction for either/both. This is what I mean in terms of defining realistic parameters for a player's "success." Expecting a guy who's never played a full season of NHL hockey in his life to step in and score 25+ goals is ridiculous. So is expecting a 35+ D to step in and produce 60+ points.

Butler and Filatov will, best case scenario, have their ups and downs throughout the season, and Gonchar, best case scenario, will miss a few games and lose another step or two throughout the season. If the first two have something like 15G/35P or 20G/40P seasons, and the third has a 40+P season, then they would have all had successful seasons. Anything over that is gravy, and a pleasant surprise. But expecting anything beyond that is misguided in the extreme, and setting yourself up to be disappointed in the player and the team.

You gonna call it? What are your projections for those 3 guys this year? Remember where you are.

Sure. I'll say 15-20G & 40-45P for Butler, and the same (or total bust) for Filatov (it can only go one of two ways with this guy).

Gonchar is trickier, especially with that concussion at the end of the season. I'll say 60GP, 35+P. I've already made the decision to drop him as one of my six keepers in my keeper league, which was tough.

On a not-totally unrelated point, btw, which 6 players would you keep from this list? Scoring cats are G, A, +/-, PIM, PPG, PPA, DEF (points by a defencemen), W, GAA, SV%, and SVs:

C: Backstrom, Lecavalier, Kesler (also LW last year)
RW: Kane
D: Keith, Yandle, Byfuglien, Karlsson, Gonchar
G: Luongo, Hiller

I'm leaning toward Backstrom, Kesler, Kane, Keith, Yandle, and Luongo. But tossing aside Lecavalier, Buff, and Karlsson is a hard one to swallow. If I'm lucky, one of them will be available to me with my 1st round pick (at #10).

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:Okay then, at least I took the time to explain to you why I felt he could hit 60 points, I guess you either don't care, or agree with me.

I happen to think that having Crosby and Malkin on the PP with you, for every shift, helps to pad your offensive stats.

No one in their right mind should have expected Gonchar to score at the same pace for us, because we just don't have those big guns. At best, he can put up 45-50 points for us, which is nothing to sneeze at and something we desperately need. But 60+ point expectations needed to be laid aside at the moment of signing. Just like 70+ point expectations for Kovalev were totally unrealistic.

This is why so many OTT fans are disappointed in their team and their players. They have super unrealistic expectations. Take Butler and Filatov, for instance. If each of those guys has a 15-20 goal / 40-50 point season this year, that should be viewed as a huge step forward. But, if we're lucky and something like that happens, will most people see it that way? I doubt it.

I seem to remember the year when we all were wondering how on earth a PP with the likes of Crosby and Malkin up-front could be so horrifically bad. It rivaled ours, for crying out loud. Then Gonchar came back from his injury and they moved from high-20s to something like low teens.

SpezDispenser wrote:I'll call it:

Butler 24 goals (on pace for a lot more and tails off)

Filatov no idea.

Gonchar 65 games played - 40 points exactly.

So much of it depends on where they play and for how long. Butler may only be a sophomore but he's old enough (and experienced enough) to be considered for a breakout season (those usually happen in years 3-5). 20-25 goals and 40 assists would be a breakout.

I'll put Filatov down for 20 goals, playing second line, or 25-30 if he sticks with Spezza the whole year.

Chirp predicts Karlsson's numbers:

2011/2012 PREDICTION- 80 GP 16 G 40 A 56 PTS

http://www.senschirp.ca/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=392:looking-ahead-erik-karlsson&Itemid=13

spader wrote:Chirp predicts Karlsson's numbers:

2011/2012 PREDICTION- 80 GP 16 G 40 A 56 PTS

http://www.senschirp.ca/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=392:looking-ahead-erik-karlsson&Itemid=13

What did he predict for Gonchar? I think it was 42 pts if I'm not mistaken. If we have two d-men getting 40+ points, I think we'd be a lock for the playoffs. Now that I've mentioned that, I doubt either of these two come this close to these numbers.

My rebuttal is that Karlsson takes a dip but gets a very impressive 42 pts on the season. I think Gonchar gets 34 pts.

Michallica wrote:

spader wrote:Chirp predicts Karlsson's numbers:

2011/2012 PREDICTION- 80 GP 16 G 40 A 56 PTS

http://www.senschirp.ca/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=392:looking-ahead-erik-karlsson&Itemid=13

What did he predict for Gonchar? I think it was 42 pts if I'm not mistaken. If we have two d-men getting 40+ points, I think we'd be a lock for the playoffs. Now that I've mentioned that, I doubt either of these two come this close to these numbers.

My rebuttal is that Karlsson takes a dip but gets a very impressive 42 pts on the season. I think Gonchar gets 34 pts.

42 points is what he predicted for Gonchar. It's certainly possible, as is the 56 point prediction for EK. Assuming I see it first, I'll be posting all of Chirp's predictions in here.

42 and 34 would still be good numbers. Not great, but good. I think it's more likely that EK ends up on the higher end of this divide (42-56) and Gonchar ends up towards the lower end (34-42). We'll see.








Is it October yet?

Call me crazy, but I think this season other teams will recognize that Karlsson is our best player. They're gonna try to figure him out just like they did with Mike Green. Add power play time sharing with Rundblad and Gonchar, hopefully some defensive improvement under the watchful eyes of Paul Maclean, and I see it being a weaker offensive year for Karlsson.

That doesn't mean he won't be totally awesome. In fact I think we see him take significant steps in becoming a better defenceman this season. The 60-point seasons will come soon after.