NEELY wrote:If Butler and Filatov can get a combined 40 goals between them, we will be talking about the playoffs and The Sens come March and April. If a guy like Greening can put in 15-20, we might be talking about the playoffs.
It breaks down like this IMO, if the top 6 in Ottawa can scorer 120-140 goals, The Sens will be able to sneek in. You will probably get 45-50 goals from the blueline assuming Karlsson and Gonchar can somehow get 20-25 between them. The 3rd and 4th lines, if they can get you 40-50 goals as well, that's what they will need.
So you are looking at on the low end 205 goals, MAYBE that gets them in if Anderson plays the way Thomas did last year. On the high end, 240 goals will get The Sens in without much trouble. If they can score over 220 goals I think they make it. If not, it's a stretch.
Sens are on pace for 94.6 points, I think it's fair to say they are a lock for making the playoffs (assuming the trend continues; and with an easier schedule for them and harder for the rest of the teams, I think it will). So with that, let's look at some of those other numbers (sorry for picking on you, NEELY, but I'm sure you can take it):
40-50 for Butler/Filatov combined. Wow. I know you were not predicting it. Good thing, too. Wow. Those were
not ridiculous numbers during the summer, either.
Greening is on pace for 17, right in the middle of the 15-20 range. Again, I know it was not a prediction, but still.
For the purposes of extrapolation I'll take the top-six as Alfie, Spezza, Michalek, Foligno, Turris, Greening. Turris will not play a full season here but if I divide that sixth spot between him and Butler I don't think it will make much of a difference. I'll only project for his 19 games here, though, not the games he played in Phoenix. Alfie(28), Spezza(31), Michalek(38), Foligno(19), Turris(10), Greening(17) adds up to 143, ahead of NEELY's 120-140.
Karlsson appears to be on pace for 11 (but he was on pace for 2 for so long that it's probably more likely he'll get closer to 15. Gonchar, though, is probably not getting more than 5. 20-25 is not happening and neither is 45-50 from the back-end. We *are* getting a lot of production back there, though, just as assists. This explains the higher numbers up front.
As a team, the Sens are on pace for 239 goals. With Turris in the lineup I think we'll break 240.
The problem, though, has been the goals against. I know Anderson's been playing better, lately, but over the season they are still -3, and are scoring fewer goals than they get scored against them. 52 games in you can no-longer point at the two lopsided losses for an excuse. It's true, with a young team it's possible you lose by 2-3 goals more often than not, and with a lot of OT games a lot of their wins have been by 1 goal.
Bottom line, I think they make the playoffs around #6 but Anderson's play determines what happens to them after that.
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