You Call 'em

SpezDispenser wrote:

Dash wrote:Here are my projections (goal wise) for a few Sens:

Bobby Butler: 22
Jason Spezza: 29
Milan Michalek: 24
Erik Karlsson: 14
Daniel Alfredsson: 21

Gun to the head I would say VERY similar numbers:

Butler - 24
Spezza - 36
Michalek - same as you
Karlsson - same as you
Alfredsson - same as you (which is AWESOME that he scores 20+).

Sad day, if you think it'll be awesome if Alfie scores 20.

SensGirl11 wrote:I guess i've got some serious wishful thinking with Alfie there, but it's certainly not impossible for him to do that, especially if the surgery was as successful as it sounds and that he's back to being healthier than he was last season...i mean, that was a brutal season for him injury-wise

From what I've been reading he may even be on the top line. I just want him to rest during the PK situations.

SensGirl11 wrote:I guess i've got some serious wishful thinking with Alfie there, but it's certainly not impossible for him to do that, especially if the surgery was as successful as it sounds and that he's back to being healthier than he was last season...i mean, that was a brutal season for him injury-wise

From what I've been reading he may even be on the top line. I just want him to rest during the PK situations.

wprager wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:

Dash wrote:Here are my projections (goal wise) for a few Sens:

Bobby Butler: 22
Jason Spezza: 29
Milan Michalek: 24
Erik Karlsson: 14
Daniel Alfredsson: 21

Gun to the head I would say VERY similar numbers:

Butler - 24
Spezza - 36
Michalek - same as you
Karlsson - same as you
Alfredsson - same as you (which is AWESOME that he scores 20+).

Sad day, if you think it'll be awesome if Alfie scores 20.

Sad days are here Prags, but he'll ALWAYS be the MAN in Ottawa.

sorry to be buzz killington here, but if we have 4 different 20-goal scorers as many are projecting, shouldn't we be talking playoffs and not Nail Yakupov?

Michallica wrote:sorry to be buzz killington here, but if we have 4 different 20-goal scorers as many are projecting, shouldn't we be talking playoffs and not Nail Yakupov?

4 20 goal scorers and 14 other 4 goal scorers should off set that quite well.

Michallica wrote:sorry to be buzz killington here, but if we have 4 different 20-goal scorers as many are projecting, shouldn't we be talking playoffs and not Nail Yakupov?

That's 80 goals... not a whole lot.

If you are looking at the bigger picture, teams with 7 or 8 20 goal scorers get in, teams with 35-50 goal scorers get in as well... having your top 4 goals score less than 100 goals, not the best situation. YOu are asking for 100-130 goals from your 3rd and 4th lines along with your D. That's a lot.

If Butler and Filatov can get a combined 40 goals between them, we will be talking about the playoffs and The Sens come March and April. If a guy like Greening can put in 15-20, we might be talking about the playoffs.

It breaks down like this IMO, if the top 6 in Ottawa can scorer 120-140 goals, The Sens will be able to sneek in. You will probably get 45-50 goals from the blueline assuming Karlsson and Gonchar can somehow get 20-25 between them. The 3rd and 4th lines, if they can get you 40-50 goals as well, that's what they will need.

So you are looking at on the low end 205 goals, MAYBE that gets them in if Anderson plays the way Thomas did last year. On the high end, 240 goals will get The Sens in without much trouble. If they can score over 220 goals I think they make it. If not, it's a stretch.

NEELY wrote:

Michallica wrote:sorry to be buzz killington here, but if we have 4 different 20-goal scorers as many are projecting, shouldn't we be talking playoffs and not Nail Yakupov?

That's 80 goals... not a whole lot.

If you are looking at the bigger picture, teams with 7 or 8 20 goal scorers get in, teams with 35-50 goal scorers get in as well... having your top 4 goals score less than 100 goals, not the best situation. YOu are asking for 100-130 goals from your 3rd and 4th lines along with your D. That's a lot.

we're not talking exactly 80 goals or 20 per person, you'd at least see 90 goals between them. And you have others like Foligno, Regin, Greening, Condra, Filatov who very well have a chance at getting more than 10 goals (again that doesn't mean it's exactly 50 goals between these guys). Basically I would say having Alfie, Spezza, Butler, Michalek get 20 + goals gets the remaining 5 get 10 or more will net you 150-160 goals. Anywhere in that range. That's not even counting defenseman scoring or 4th liners.

My basic thought here is that we had ONE 20 goal scorer last year and even that wasn't enough to land us in the bottom (thanks to craig anderson in the end). Matter of fact, only two players last year were over 15 goals (Michalek and Spezza). No I don't think I'm out to lunch when I say having 4 players get 20+ goals is going to mean playoff contention.

NEELY wrote:If Butler and Filatov can get a combined 40 goals between them, we will be talking about the playoffs and The Sens come March and April. If a guy like Greening can put in 15-20, we might be talking about the playoffs.

It breaks down like this IMO, if the top 6 in Ottawa can scorer 120-140 goals, The Sens will be able to sneek in. You will probably get 45-50 goals from the blueline assuming Karlsson and Gonchar can somehow get 20-25 between them. The 3rd and 4th lines, if they can get you 40-50 goals as well, that's what they will need.

So you are looking at on the low end 205 goals, MAYBE that gets them in if Anderson plays the way Thomas did last year. On the high end, 240 goals will get The Sens in without much trouble. If they can score over 220 goals I think they make it. If not, it's a stretch.

There's one part of that I don't get. 45-50 goals from the blueline, when Karlsson and Gonchar get 20-25 between them. That's 25 goals for Phillips/Lee and Kuba/Carkner/Lee. Phillips used to get around 5 goals playing as a top-pairing guy. I don't expect more than 5-8 goals from the two of them. Kuba/Carkner would probably be even less.

Michallica wrote:sorry to be buzz killington here, but if we have 4 different 20-goal scorers as many are projecting, shouldn't we be talking playoffs and not Nail Yakupov?

Leafs had four 20+ goal scorers. That got them a 21st overall finish.

Dash wrote:

Michallica wrote:sorry to be buzz killington here, but if we have 4 different 20-goal scorers as many are projecting, shouldn't we be talking playoffs and not Nail Yakupov?

Leafs had four 20+ goal scorers. That got them a 21st overall finish.

Would have been a different story if they had Reimer playing the whole season, though. Same as Anderson here.

Dash wrote:

Michallica wrote:sorry to be buzz killington here, but if we have 4 different 20-goal scorers as many are projecting, shouldn't we be talking playoffs and not Nail Yakupov?

Leafs had four 20+ goal scorers. That got them a 21st overall finish.

And if i recall, they were in playoff contention thanks to late surge with the addition of reimer. they didnt get eliminated till the last week iirc

Yeah, but that's just using a variable as an excuse. There's too many what if's... what if Alfie didn't get injured? What if Spezza didn't get injured? Michalek... etc etc...

There are at least a couple of teams that nearly had four 20 goal scorers if not for missing some games. Those few extra goals would not have made much difference if any in the teams standings.

Michallica wrote:

Dash wrote:

Michallica wrote:sorry to be buzz killington here, but if we have 4 different 20-goal scorers as many are projecting, shouldn't we be talking playoffs and not Nail Yakupov?

Leafs had four 20+ goal scorers. That got them a 21st overall finish.

And if i recall, they were in playoff contention thanks to late surge with the addition of reimer. they didnt get eliminated till the last week iirc

Still changes nothing... four 20+ goal scorers and no playoffs, thus the argument that multiple 20 goal scorers does not mean playoffs holds true.

Dash wrote:

Michallica wrote:

Dash wrote:

Michallica wrote:sorry to be buzz killington here, but if we have 4 different 20-goal scorers as many are projecting, shouldn't we be talking playoffs and not Nail Yakupov?

Leafs had four 20+ goal scorers. That got them a 21st overall finish.

And if i recall, they were in playoff contention thanks to late surge with the addition of reimer. they didnt get eliminated till the last week iirc

Still changes nothing... four 20+ goal scorers and no playoffs, thus the argument that multiple 20 goal scorers does not mean playoffs holds true.

i said playoff contention, not making the playoffs. Talking about playoffs is at the opposite end of the nail yakupov spectrum, which was my point

wprager wrote:

NEELY wrote:If Butler and Filatov can get a combined 40 goals between them, we will be talking about the playoffs and The Sens come March and April. If a guy like Greening can put in 15-20, we might be talking about the playoffs.

It breaks down like this IMO, if the top 6 in Ottawa can scorer 120-140 goals, The Sens will be able to sneek in. You will probably get 45-50 goals from the blueline assuming Karlsson and Gonchar can somehow get 20-25 between them. The 3rd and 4th lines, if they can get you 40-50 goals as well, that's what they will need.

So you are looking at on the low end 205 goals, MAYBE that gets them in if Anderson plays the way Thomas did last year. On the high end, 240 goals will get The Sens in without much trouble. If they can score over 220 goals I think they make it. If not, it's a stretch.

There's one part of that I don't get. 45-50 goals from the blueline, when Karlsson and Gonchar get 20-25 between them. That's 25 goals for Phillips/Lee and Kuba/Carkner/Lee. Phillips used to get around 5 goals playing as a top-pairing guy. I don't expect more than 5-8 goals from the two of them. Kuba/Carkner would probably be even less.

Philips: 5
Kuba: 5
Lee: 3
Carkner: 2
Rundblad: 5
Cowen: 2
Borowiecki/Gryba: 2

Total: 24

There will be 8-9 D playing, with injuries/trade etc (like every year), so it's possible.

In relation to the NFL, the Sens want to be TB this year. Young, but shock teams and win their fair share on work ethic + Anderson. The goals are gonna be hard to come by, but we're likely not gonna let teams waltz into our zone and score at will - especially with guys like Greening, Condra, Z.Smith, et. all finally getting their full chance to show what they can do over a year. And Anderson, always back to him in the end.