Murray - Let's make a deal!!

Aw, i feel left out, I've never been on hockeybuzz

asq2 wrote:

davetherave wrote:So, Genteelmen, to get back 'on topic', is Bryan Murray actually to trade somebody, or was he just sending a message?

Ideally both. I do think he wants to get Regin into the line-up though. So far, it's made the Fisher contract look more tenable.

Well, if we could actually watch the exhibition games it would certainly help make the discussion more substantive.

NHLGameCenter.com has really pulled a con job this year in that respect...they tell you to sign up and then don't even deliver radio feeds. Pwah.

OK, well it looks like--from what I can discern--that Regin is turning out to be the NHL-quality center I said he was last year.

Which seems to be good news for Fisher, and one presumes, Foligno.

Trade talkin'...I tend to think BM is just lighting the fire under his men. Giving Coach Cory additional support.

Rosters look pretty set around the league, though...don't know if BM would find takers right now for any of the players being mentioned, and get anything reasonable in return.

Chris Kelly's fallen out of favour here on this forum (among some people anyway), but it's not like you notice a guy when he kills penalties and checks effectively.

But seeing as Ottawa has only allowed 9 goals in 5 games, the team is doing something right defensively, and that's not just Leclaire and Elliott.

Any relevant defensive stats available for Kelly at this point?

Because of Lee, Picard, and Campoli all being RFA's after this year, I could see one of them being traded. They have similar attributes, and are all around the same spot on the depth chart. Of the three, Lee has the best upside IMO.

Murray traded for Picard and Campoli, while he inherited Lee. Typically, GMs don't trade away the players they sign, draft or trade for. If there is a desire beyond this site to trade Kelly, Lee may have to be included. And I think the return for a Lee, Kelly package would be good.

dennycrane wrote:Because of Lee, Picard, and Campoli all being RFA's after this year, I could see one of them being traded. They have similar attributes, and are all around the same spot on the depth chart. Of the three, Lee has the best upside IMO.

Murray traded for Picard and Campoli, while he inherited Lee. Typically, GMs don't trade away the players they sign, draft or trade for. If there is a desire beyond this site to trade Kelly, Lee may have to be included. And I think the return for a Lee, Kelly package would be good.

OK, so who in your realistic view is the prospective trading partner, and what does BM get in return for such a package?

davetherave wrote:

asq2 wrote:

davetherave wrote:So, Genteelmen, to get back 'on topic', is Bryan Murray actually to trade somebody, or was he just sending a message?

Ideally both. I do think he wants to get Regin into the line-up though. So far, it's made the Fisher contract look more tenable.

Well, if we could actually watch the exhibition games it would certainly help make the discussion more substantive.

NHLGameCenter.com has really pulled a con job this year in that respect...they tell you to sign up and then don't even deliver radio feeds. Pwah.

OK, well it looks like--from what I can discern--that Regin is turning out to be the NHL-quality center I said he was last year.

Which seems to be good news for Fisher, and one presumes, Foligno.

Trade talkin'...I tend to think BM is just lighting the fire under his men. Giving Coach Cory additional support.

Rosters look pretty set around the league, though...don't know if BM would find takers right now for any of the players being mentioned, and get anything reasonable in return.

Chris Kelly's fallen out of favour here on this forum (among some people anyway), but it's not like you notice a guy when he kills penalties and checks effectively.

But seeing as Ottawa has only allowed 9 goals in 5 games, the team is doing something right defensively, and that's not just Leclaire and Elliott.

Any relevant defensive stats available for Kelly at this point?

Measuring defensive performance through statistics can be incredibly misleading.

Kelly was third on the team in take-aways with 48 (Spezza led the team with 73, Alfie right behind him with 72). Of course, Kelly had substantially fewer give-aways, but that has more to do with his lack of offensive gusto.

He had a pretty poor FO% of 47.6, which isn't something you necessarily want in your defensive specialist. Compare that to Fisher's 51.2%, Regin's 53.2% (granted he didn't take very many face-offs), Spezza's 53.3% (and he took a tonne), Winchester's 56.8% and Vermette's jaw-dropping 58.4%.

Kelly did register the most blocked shots amongst Senators forwards with 59 (ahead of Fisher's 54) and had a respectable 97 hits, which is 6th amongst Senator forwards, although none really on the Richter scale.

Using these statistics, a comparable could be Atlanta's Marty Reasoner, although in fact he beats Kelly in every category except hits (which Kelly amasses, but doens't really make an impact with).

Category	Kelly	Reasoner
Points	23	30
Blocks	59	60
Hits	97	41
Tkaways	48	69
FO%	47.6	52.8
+/-	-10	11

Kelly receives $2.2 million a season, Reasoner the comparably paltry $1.15 million. Of course, you can't tell whether Reasoner is incredibly underpaid or whether Kelly is overpaid without examining more comparable contracts, although it's closer to the latter than the former.

We must also keep in mind, however, that Kelly is younger and signed his deal when he and Vermette seemed poised to become an elite penalty-killing tandem a la Draper-Maltby. Looking back, you'll see that Kelly's numbers in these categories go up (as well as his numbers offensively).

I don't think anyone is arguing that Kelly is poor defensively, only that as a commodity a defensive forward is not usually paid as much as he is. Kelly earns almost as much as the arguably the two best in the business in Madden and Pahlsson, and nobody can pretend he's nearly as good at shutting down top-line players.

I suspect a more likely reason that people are running him out of town is just that he doesn't seem to fit with the Senators any more. With Regin's emergence, the Sens have the potential to ice three lines that can score, and I doubt Clouston or Murray want to miss that opportunity by putting Kelly between the likes of Michalek, Cheechoo, Foligno etc as opposed to PR.

That leaves the fourth line for him, and I for one would much prefer having Jesse Winchester at the centre position than Kelly, because he has offensive upside, he's more effectively physical, and frankly the prospect of a $5.5 million fourth line is incredibly unappealing.

Considering the fourth line plays so infrequently anyway, I'd say it's better to have the cap-space.

I don't know, frankly, why a team would acquire Kelly while Dominic Moore, who can provide essentially the same services, is just sitting around and would probably sign for anything.

There'd either have to be a sweetener on our side, or salary coming back.

I don't want to lessen Lee's value by dealing him in a package with Kelly. And I don't want to move a player with Lee's youth and potential just for the sake of moving Kelly either.

At most, I'd put O'Brien in the package.

I will say, though, that I appreciate Kelly and acknowledge him to be an integral part of some of the better times for Sens fans (the '05-'06 and '06-'07 years).

It's a shame that a contract can cause such a complete 180 in terms of fan perspectives on a player. If Kelly were making $1 million a season, there'd be absolutely no complaints. Same goes for Fisher's money, and arguably Spezza's as well.

That's the thing that I've been thinking for a while. Chris Kelly got a lot of money as a UFA (pretty much) and it may just cost him his job in Ottawa soon. Does he suck? No, you summed it up really well Asq, he doesn't suck, he's a good defensive player to have when you're up 2-1 in the third. Can he be replaced? For sure. If not by Regin, then by Z.Smith, although by the looks of it, it would be Winchester claiming that 4th line C spot.

SpezDispenser wrote:That's the thing that I've been thinking for a while. Chris Kelly got a lot of money as a UFA (pretty much) and it may just cost him his job in Ottawa soon. Does he suck? No, you summed it up really well Asq, he doesn't suck, he's a good defensive player to have when you're up 2-1 in the third. Can he be replaced? For sure. If not by Regin, then by Z.Smith, although by the looks of it, it would be Winchester claiming that 4th line C spot.

Money makes the salary-cap world go round. Overpaying one bottom-6er is fine, but when you've got $2 million in Neil, $1.3 in Ruutu (which I don't mind, actually), $2.2 million in Kelly and $3 million in Cheechoo, something's gotta give (and some would argue Fisher is a third-line centre). Add in kids like Regin knocking on the door-step and it's only logical that Kelly would be moved.

Also, it's pretty hard to defend paying your fourth line more than Alfredsson.

asq2 wrote:
Money makes the salary-cap world go round. Overpaying one bottom-6er is fine, but when you've got $2 million in Neil, $1.3 in Ruutu (which I don't mind, actually), $2.2 million in Kelly and $3 million in Cheechoo, something's gotta give (and some would argue Fisher is a third-line centre). Add in kids like Regin knocking on the door-step and it's only logical that Kelly would be moved.

Also, it's pretty hard to defend paying your fourth line more than Alfredsson.

Absolutely. I can understand the logic behind paying Neil 2 million, that's fine, we have little toughness, he can play the game, he adds grit, he adds leadership, he can fight - fine. But you quite simply can't have Neil and Kelly. Two fourth liners who like to masquerade as 3rd liners from time to time, when you signed the Neil 2 million per season, it was the end of the line for Kelly IMO. As many have pointed out, that's a lot of money on line 4.

Problem is what team would take Kelly and his 6+ million contract when they should be filling the role internally, or better yet, signing a UFA?

SpezDispenser wrote:

asq2 wrote:
Money makes the salary-cap world go round. Overpaying one bottom-6er is fine, but when you've got $2 million in Neil, $1.3 in Ruutu (which I don't mind, actually), $2.2 million in Kelly and $3 million in Cheechoo, something's gotta give (and some would argue Fisher is a third-line centre). Add in kids like Regin knocking on the door-step and it's only logical that Kelly would be moved.

Also, it's pretty hard to defend paying your fourth line more than Alfredsson.

Absolutely. I can understand the logic behind paying Neil 2 million, that's fine, we have little toughness, he can play the game, he adds grit, he adds leadership, he can fight - fine. But you quite simply can't have Neil and Kelly. Two fourth liners who like to masquerade as 3rd liners from time to time, when you signed the Neil 2 million per season, it was the end of the line for Kelly IMO. As many have pointed out, that's a lot of money on line 4.

Problem is what team would take Kelly and his 6+ million contract when they should be filling the role internally, or better yet, signing a UFA?

Well exactly. It's not like he provides a unique skill-set. Especially at this time, when teams are trying out their young guys, I don't think it'd be easy to move him without sweetening the pot.

Also, DTR, SpezD and I have been hyping Regin for years.

SpezDispenser wrote:

asq2 wrote:
Money makes the salary-cap world go round. Overpaying one bottom-6er is fine, but when you've got $2 million in Neil, $1.3 in Ruutu (which I don't mind, actually), $2.2 million in Kelly and $3 million in Cheechoo, something's gotta give (and some would argue Fisher is a third-line centre). Add in kids like Regin knocking on the door-step and it's only logical that Kelly would be moved.

Also, it's pretty hard to defend paying your fourth line more than Alfredsson.

Absolutely. I can understand the logic behind paying Neil 2 million, that's fine, we have little toughness, he can play the game, he adds grit, he adds leadership, he can fight - fine. But you quite simply can't have Neil and Kelly. Two fourth liners who like to masquerade as 3rd liners from time to time, when you signed the Neil 2 million per season, it was the end of the line for Kelly IMO. As many have pointed out, that's a lot of money on line 4.

Problem is what team would take Kelly and his 6+ million contract when they should be filling the role internally, or better yet, signing a UFA?

@Spez> the thing that makes Kelly difficult to trade is the term...2 more years at 2MM. If he was a pending UFA, it might be different. Then again, maybe not.

As ASQ says, you have a Dominic Moore out there...and a Rob Niedermayer. To name two. Who you could conceivably get on one year deals for half the dough.

BTW Re: Neil, fan fave, but Sens fans might be saying the same thing about him as they are about Kelly after this season. I like Chris Neil from the point of view that he's a spark; but it's still a lot of money and term for a fourth line guy.

No ideas about the suggested Lee/Kelly package that Denny pitched?

@ASQ you and I have always agreed on Regin...but years? The kid only came over last season.

davetherave wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:

asq2 wrote:
Money makes the salary-cap world go round. Overpaying one bottom-6er is fine, but when you've got $2 million in Neil, $1.3 in Ruutu (which I don't mind, actually), $2.2 million in Kelly and $3 million in Cheechoo, something's gotta give (and some would argue Fisher is a third-line centre). Add in kids like Regin knocking on the door-step and it's only logical that Kelly would be moved.

Also, it's pretty hard to defend paying your fourth line more than Alfredsson.

Absolutely. I can understand the logic behind paying Neil 2 million, that's fine, we have little toughness, he can play the game, he adds grit, he adds leadership, he can fight - fine. But you quite simply can't have Neil and Kelly. Two fourth liners who like to masquerade as 3rd liners from time to time, when you signed the Neil 2 million per season, it was the end of the line for Kelly IMO. As many have pointed out, that's a lot of money on line 4.

Problem is what team would take Kelly and his 6+ million contract when they should be filling the role internally, or better yet, signing a UFA?

@Spez> the thing that makes Kelly difficult to trade is the term...2 more years at 2MM. If he was a pending UFA, it might be different. Then again, maybe not.

As ASQ says, you have a Dominic Moore out there...and a Rob Niedermayer. To name two. Who you could conceivably get on one year deals for half the dough.

BTW Re: Neil, fan fave, but Sens fans might be saying the same thing about him as they are about Kelly after this season. I like Chris Neil from the point of view that he's a spark; but it's still a lot of money and term for a fourth line guy.

No ideas about the suggested Lee/Kelly package that Denny pitched?

@ASQ you and I have always agreed on Regin...but years? The kid only came over last season.

He's been on our radar longer than he's been in NA. For one, he's been in WJCs for Denmark, and WCs. Secondly, he's amassed some nice highlights in the SEL. Thirdly, his turning down a great contract offer from Timra to pursue a career in Ottawa raised some interest.

Anyway, I'm glad PR has turned out so nicely thus far. Unlike Kaspars Daugavins.

asq2 wrote:

davetherave wrote:
@ASQ you and I have always agreed on Regin...but years? The kid only came over last season.

He's been on our radar longer than he's been in NA. For one, he's been in WJCs for Denmark, and WCs. Secondly, he's amassed some nice highlights in the SEL. Thirdly, his turning down a great contract offer from Timra to pursue a career in Ottawa raised some interest.

Good thing your radar was working. Anyway, you've always been strong on these kids from Scandinavia.


No ideas about the suggested Lee/Kelly package that Denny pitched?

asq2 wrote:Anyway, I'm glad PR has turned out so nicely thus far. Unlike Kaspars Daugavins.

The Blues like the Danes too. Maybe they can package him with one of our extras for a reasonable return?

SeawaySensFan wrote:

asq2 wrote:Anyway, I'm glad PR has turned out so nicely thus far. Unlike Kaspars Daugavins.

The Blues like the Danes too. Maybe they can package him with one of our extras for a reasonable return?

That may have something to do with the cheese.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_Blue_cheese

davetherave wrote:

asq2 wrote:

davetherave wrote:
@ASQ you and I have always agreed on Regin...but years? The kid only came over last season.

He's been on our radar longer than he's been in NA. For one, he's been in WJCs for Denmark, and WCs. Secondly, he's amassed some nice highlights in the SEL. Thirdly, his turning down a great contract offer from Timra to pursue a career in Ottawa raised some interest.

Good thing your radar was working. Anyway, you've always been strong on these kids from Scandinavia.


No ideas about the suggested Lee/Kelly package that Denny pitched?

Personally, that's not a package I'd put together. I don't want to deal Lee just for the sake of getting rid of Kelly, and I think he would get a better return on his own than with Kelly.