Wow, I go away to a kid's soccer game and this thread grows another 20 pages. I tried reading a few last night, but fuhgeddaboutit.
Over in the other thread (TOP priority) I threw down some numbers. It would appear that the loss of scoring from the departures of Vermette and Heatley can be offset by the improved SV% in Leclaire/Elliot versus Gerber/Auld. That, and Regin getting 15 goals replacing Vermette as the 3rd line center, and whoever replaces Heatley on the top line getting 25.
So on the surface we don't need to do much to replace Heatley's output. That said, there are other issues to consider:
1. Quick strike. Heatley can score from nowhere in a split second. He's dangerous and the opposition knows it. This means more attention will be now paid to Spezza and Alfie.
2. Powerplay? Don't really know this, but how were Heatley's numbers on the PP? I know he was relegated to the 2nd unit, but was he still pretty strong there? If so, and if our PP efficiency suffers as a result, then opposing teams will take liberties against our top players.
3. Who replaces whoever replaces Heatley? My number crunching did not go to the secondary analysis. If Heatley is replaced internally -- for example, Fisher or Foligno moving up -- then who replaces that player on the 2nd line? There's bound to be some lost production ther, as well. Unless, of course, the replacement comes from the outside.
So, in summary, I don't believe there is any need to spend the $7.5M right away on anyone. Certainly, we'll need to replace two players (Vermette and Heatley -- I don't think Comrie is coming back, otherwise he could "replace" Vermette). Thos two players will have to pull up a bit of the slack, the rest would come from the improved goaltending. And also, let's not forget the back-end. I'm not talking about Kuba, because his stats will go down with the team's reduced goal production (he's very much an assist guy). Getting a full season out of Campoli and Bell should get us an extra 10 goals, and if Karlsson sticks around, surely he will improve on Smith's production.