Free Agency possiblities? (read this on Sens Chirp)

Offer sheets are gutless, and if the player is good enough it gets matched anyways... at the end of the day you lose a pick for anything but a garentee or 29 other GM's hate your guts.

504Heater wrote:

dennycrane wrote:To drop an offer sheet that might work, say goodbye to the 1st round pick, plus others.

Yeah, but Krejci would be a guy that we could lose a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and it would pretty much even out IMO.

Great player.

Same with Versteeg actually. It's Kessel that I don't care too much about - although his speed and offensive instincts are amazing for a boy.

Krejci is a 4 first round picks offer-sheet IMO.

If any centre out of Boston is available, it's Bergeron.

Neely4Life wrote:I see no reason why the Sens should be going after any UFA's at this point. Lets see what the Sens have on the shelves of the organization, lets see what some of the kids can do and how good Leclaire and the defense is. If those things are good to go come years end next year, start adding some pieces, if not, trim more fat.

Well and wisely said.

Next year we will probable have 6 players havins more than 40 points. Big 3 + Shannon, Foligno and Fisher.
If you can't win with that, there's a more serious problem than lack of forwards personnel.

Jbo at 6.5 or Cammaleri at 5.5?
No Brainer for me.

marakh wrote:Next year we will probable have 6 players havins more than 40 points. Big 3 + Shannon, Foligno and Fisher.
If you can't win with that, there's a more serious problem than lack of forwards personnel.

Jbo at 6.5 or Cammaleri at 5.5?
No Brainer for me.

exactly go after J.bo and trade to make the necessary room.(smith, kelly). but i'm not sure i see the sens pulling it off...

Flo The Action wrote:

marakh wrote:Next year we will probable have 6 players havins more than 40 points. Big 3 + Shannon, Foligno and Fisher.
If you can't win with that, there's a more serious problem than lack of forwards personnel.

Jbo at 6.5 or Cammaleri at 5.5?
No Brainer for me.

exactly go after J.bo and trade to make the necessary room.(smith, kelly). but i'm not sure i see the sens pulling it off...

We'll be able to confidently play the numbers game soon enough -- i.e., when the NHL tabulates and releases the cap figure for the 2009-10 season. I think most experts have the cap being about $56-58 mil this year (and headed for a big decline in 2010-11).

But, what the hell, I can't resist trying now!

Since the Shannon signing, the Sens have about $50.5 mil in cap space eaten up next year. BM and Melnyk never, ever spend to the cap -- they always leave room for call ups, injuries, trade deadline deals -- so whenever we get the final cap number, you need to subtract a minimum of $2 mil for those purposes (i.e., a real cap of $56 mil means OTT will commit no more than $54 mil in salaries, etc.)

Decisions have to be made, first, on Comrie, Neil, Bell, and Elliott. I personally think the former two are gone, and the latter two will be resigned to combine for about about $1.5-2 mil ($500,000 for Bell, about $1-1.5 mil for Elliott).

So, that brings us closer to, say, $52.5 mil in salary.

If you trim the fat, you send off Schubert, Auld, and Smith. That's a saving of $4.4 mil right there. Maybe you demote Lee, too. That brings the savings up to about $5.7 mil.

So, make those moves and non-moves, and you've got your cap figure down to about $46.8 mil. And your team looks like this:

Heater - Spez - Alfie
Foligno - Fisher - Shannon
Ruutu - Kelly - ---
Donovan - Winchester - ---

Phillips - Volchenkov
Kuba - Campoli
Picard - Bell

Leclaire
Elliott

Not a fantastic looking team just yet. Not even a full roster, in fact. And that last D pairing looking a little scary.

So, you call up 2 of Bass, Regin, and Zubov. Nice and cheap. Heck, let's call all 3 up for safety's sake so you have that extra forward. They add about $2 mil to your total, bring you to about $49 mil. Now assume that Karlsson makes the team and he and Bell fight it out for the 6 / 7 spots. Karlsson's entry-level deal could be a little steep -- like, probably more than Lee's $1.275. I think something in the $2 mil area likely, if not more. Anyone know the number for sure? I've looked around ever since the signing, but I can't find anything.

Anyway, so, let's assume $2 mil, and now we're at about $51 mil at this point. That means that after all that fat-trimming and stars aligning (i.e., getting Smith off the books) and letting UFAs walk, etc., etc., Sens fans can probably expect the Sens to spend a maximum of $3-5 mil this coming UFA season. That is, ONE decent player at most.

Personally, I sure as hell hope we spend that on a decent Dman. I don't know if you can safely have all 3 of Campoli, Picard, and Bell in your top 6 at the same time. Which one of those guys would you have killing penalties with Kuba in your 2nd PK unit, for instance? And what the hell do you do if the guy going to the penalty box is one of Phillips, Volchenkov, or Kuba? Yikes. We need at minimum a serviceable 3-4 D who can do a little in both ends. Or we need Smith, circa 2006, for cheaper than we have him now.

That post got me down to Earth pretty hardly :^^^^:

marakh wrote:That post got me down to Earth pretty hardly :^^^^:

Sorry, marakh. We need to get used to the idea, tho', that we're not going to be big movers and shakers on UFA day. At least, not unless we see one of the big 4 contracts moved...

Maybe -- just maybe -- if the cap goes up to $58 mil and you can get him to agree to about $6 mil / yr, you have room for JBo if you move Kelly and replace him with another kid. But that puts you in an awful spot for the following year, when the cap is widely expected to fall. It also leaves Alfie (turning 37), Fisher, Ruutu, and Winchester (?) as your 4 best, most seasoned PKers. Also yikes.

rooneypoo wrote:

marakh wrote:That post got me down to Earth pretty hardly :^^^^:

Sorry, marakh. We need to get used to the idea, tho', that we're not going to be big movers and shakers on UFA day. At least, not unless we see one of the big 4 contracts moved...

Maybe -- just maybe -- if the cap goes up to $58 mil and you can get him to agree to about $6 mil / yr, you have room for JBo if you move Kelly and replace him with another kid. But that puts you in an awful spot for the following year, when the cap is widely expected to fall. It also leaves Alfie (turning 37), Fisher, Ruutu, and Winchester (?) as your 4 best, most seasoned PKers. Also yikes.

I've come to expect that from your Rooney. A very objective look at things. Let consider this. With 8 defensemen currently under contract (well 8 if you believe Bell an RFA resigns) then in order for them to bring in Karlsson as well as sign a top 2 dman, then you'll have to have 2 of the current squad move out.

Phillips, Volchenkov, Kuba, are all locks...let's assume that they do get that #2 dman everyone wants, then he makes up the 4th, and Karllson makes the team he is the 5th. That means only 1 of Picard, Bell, Lee, Smith, and Campoli will still be around.

I don't really see Bell signing a 2 way deal, and trading Smith will be tough. I don't disagree that a d-man is what we need, but really the market is very thin with top 2 dmen this FA season. I could see a situation where Murray makes do with what we have, and banks the cap savings for next year when they may need it to clear and or use the extra $$$ to sign one of the guys who may be an UFA next year.

Anyway the other thing to factor into the cap number is the NHLPA has the right to increase the cap by a certain percentage. I don't understand the in's and out's of the cap, but Dawg mentioned it the other night at a party we were at. Not being sure if it's a one time thing ( I think it is) or if it's every year, but the NHLPA has the ability to increase the cap after the NHL sets the number by some percentage. Let's say it's 2.5% then if the NHL sets the cap at 56 million then the NHLPA could invoke their clause and increase it to 57.4 million.

Food for thought. Back to unpacking...I hate unpacking.

Very good points.

This is one of those threads where some of us go off course and dream from time to time, but the reality is that BM has a plan. And that plan absolutely includes Peter Regin and almost certainly includes Cody Bass (such a Murray type of player). So if you look at it that way without making a single move, there's one forward spot open - either in the 3rd or 4th line unless you mess with the FFS line and absolutely no blueline spots open without a few moves.

If we could go back in time and re-sign Stillman, this team would be set. Not in terms of making the Finals again or anything, but the team would have a nice mix of young and veteran scoring. The blueline will have to start maturing together for this team to work and it's still a good two years away. Perhaps more.

Leclaire has the potential to make the upcoming season look a little better than it actually is, but it'll mostly be about the young guys coming into their own together.

So, with that in mind, who's the Stillman that this team is looking for? Potential to put up 60 points, great character guy, Stillman was smallish, so perhaps size is a little more of an issue, but the same kind of player.

That's your mission...if you choose to accept it. cool)

Dawg's Wife wrote:Let consider this. With 8 defensemen currently under contract (well 8 if you believe Bell an RFA resigns) then in order for them to bring in Karlsson as well as sign a top 2 dman, then you'll have to have 2 of the current squad move out.

Phillips, Volchenkov, Kuba, are all locks...let's assume that they do get that #2 dman everyone wants, then he makes up the 4th, and Karllson makes the team he is the 5th. That means only 1 of Picard, Bell, Lee, Smith, and Campoli will still be around.

I don't really see Bell signing a 2 way deal, and trading Smith will be tough. I don't disagree that a d-man is what we need, but really the market is very thin with top 2 dmen this FA season. I could see a situation where Murray makes do with what we have, and banks the cap savings for next year when they may need it to clear and or use the extra $$$ to sign one of the guys who may be an UFA next year.

This logic makes it even harder for me to believe that Karlsson will be on the team next season. He's got to beat out four defenceman (and Schubert, if he's still here) to do so.

504Heater wrote:Very good points.

This is one of those threads where some of us go off course and dream from time to time, but the reality is that BM has a plan. And that plan absolutely includes Peter Regin and almost certainly includes Cody Bass (such a Murray type of player). So if you look at it that way without making a single move, there's one forward spot open - either in the 3rd or 4th line unless you mess with the FFS line and absolutely no blueline spots open without a few moves.

If we could go back in time and re-sign Stillman, this team would be set. Not in terms of making the Finals again or anything, but the team would have a nice mix of young and veteran scoring. The blueline will have to start maturing together for this team to work and it's still a good two years away. Perhaps more.

Leclaire has the potential to make the upcoming season look a little better than it actually is, but it'll mostly be about the young guys coming into their own together.

So, with that in mind, who's the Stillman that this team is looking for? Potential to put up 60 points, great character guy, Stillman was smallish, so perhaps size is a little more of an issue, but the same kind of player.

That's your mission...if you choose to accept it. cool)

Shanahan?

Mojo wrote:
Shanahan?

A guy like that, but hopefully 5 years younger. Shanahan is getting a little old and a lot slow.

Shanahan is doooooooone.

asq2 wrote:

This logic makes it even harder for me to believe that Karlsson will be on the team next season. He's got to beat out four defenceman (and Schubert, if he's still here) to do so.

I tend to agree. Clearly something's got to give at any rate:

Signed D, 1-way contracts:

1. Phillips
2. Volchenkov
3. Kuba
4. Smith
5. Campoli
6. Picard
7. Schubert

Signed, 2-way contracts:

8. Lee
9. Karlsson

Not signed, RFA:

10. Bell

That's potentially 10 guys who can play D, but, really, no one (after Phillips, Volchenkov, and Kuba) who can play 20 minutes AND defend on the PK -- which is, at minimum, what we need. Lee playing at his best comes the closest, and I know how many people feel about him already. Still, he's the only guy on D after Phillips, Volchenkov, Kuba, Smith, and Schubert who played our PK last year from what I can remember.

Something's gotta give. Trade off Schubert, buy out or trade Smith, keep Karlsson in the SEL, and you've still got 7 D with Picard, Lee, and maybe Bell (I think he did all that we could expect of him, can't imagine why you'd want to lose him for nothing) fighting for 5, 6, and 7 D spots. And any combo of those 3 guys doesn't make me feel all that safe 5 on 5.

I think you have to make a decision on one of Picard or Lee soon, regardless of what you do with Bell, who will always be a reserve D guy at best. Use one of those two guys to move up in this year's draft or something like that -- ASQ's mentioned our 1st (at 9th) plus Lee/Picard for PHO's 1st (at 6th), which would allow us to take MPS, which sounds pretty reasonable to me.

Then, if you're not willing to make the kind of moves you need to do in order to chase a big fish like JBo, you sign someone with decent size and defending abilities to play on that 3rd pairing with one of Picard/Lee/Karlsson or Bell. Maybe a guy like Steve Montador or Greg Zanon (both under-rated guys likely to be available at a reasonable price). If you can land one of those guys for something like $1 mil / yr, all of a sudden that 3rd pairing looks a little less shaky.

Bottom line is probably, for Draft day, to trade one of the D + a 2nd to get 2 or 3 spots. I don't see any reason why we wouldn't have enough pieces to get Phoenix's draft pick.

Dawg's Wife wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

marakh wrote:That post got me down to Earth pretty hardly :^^^^:

Sorry, marakh. We need to get used to the idea, tho', that we're not going to be big movers and shakers on UFA day. At least, not unless we see one of the big 4 contracts moved...

Maybe -- just maybe -- if the cap goes up to $58 mil and you can get him to agree to about $6 mil / yr, you have room for JBo if you move Kelly and replace him with another kid. But that puts you in an awful spot for the following year, when the cap is widely expected to fall. It also leaves Alfie (turning 37), Fisher, Ruutu, and Winchester (?) as your 4 best, most seasoned PKers. Also yikes.

I've come to expect that from your Rooney. A very objective look at things. Let consider this. With 8 defensemen currently under contract (well 8 if you believe Bell an RFA resigns) then in order for them to bring in Karlsson as well as sign a top 2 dman, then you'll have to have 2 of the current squad move out.

Phillips, Volchenkov, Kuba, are all locks...let's assume that they do get that #2 dman everyone wants, then he makes up the 4th, and Karllson makes the team he is the 5th. That means only 1 of Picard, Bell, Lee, Smith, and Campoli will still be around.

I don't really see Bell signing a 2 way deal, and trading Smith will be tough. I don't disagree that a d-man is what we need, but really the market is very thin with top 2 dmen this FA season. I could see a situation where Murray makes do with what we have, and banks the cap savings for next year when they may need it to clear and or use the extra $$$ to sign one of the guys who may be an UFA next year.

Anyway the other thing to factor into the cap number is the NHLPA has the right to increase the cap by a certain percentage. I don't understand the in's and out's of the cap, but Dawg mentioned it the other night at a party we were at. Not being sure if it's a one time thing ( I think it is) or if it's every year, but the NHLPA has the ability to increase the cap after the NHL sets the number by some percentage. Let's say it's 2.5% then if the NHL sets the cap at 56 million then the NHLPA could invoke their clause and increase it to 57.4 million.

Food for thought. Back to unpacking...I hate unpacking.

There are options with Smith, tho'. If he's indeed really badly injured, he'll go on LTIR, which would give us cap relief. If he's forced to retire, his salary won't count against our cap -- he signed his deal with us at 34 years old. If you're really desperate, you can demote him -- tho' I agree you probably just don't do that to a guy like Smith. If you buy him out, too, the cap hit is not crippling -- about $850,000 for too years.

Hell, maybe he plays for us next year and recovers some of his old swagger. $2.6 mil is a lot to play on the 3rd pairing. But if you buy him out and replace him with a guy making $1-1.5 mil, then you haven't really saved yourself any money.

Tough call.

marakh wrote:Bottom line is probably, for Draft day, to trade one of the D + a 2nd to get 2 or 3 spots. I don't see any reason why we wouldn't have enough pieces to get Phoenix's draft pick.

I think you're lucky if an offer like that gets you a mid- to late-round draft pick, but not a top 7 pick in this draft. Too deep.

I agree, tho', that we do have a few pieces that we should be able to parlay into more and/or better picks at this year's draft.