The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover

davetherave wrote:

504Heater wrote:

That's the difference to success and being mediocre IMO. If Murray does nothing to acquire a true number one D-man (and he's been terribly unsuccessful thus far), then we'll fill that slot with someone young or middle-tiered D-man and we'll suck next year.

If he fills the number one spot with a top-notch D-man, then I think we take few decent strides forward (depending on Elliot).

Look at the difference in the Florida Panthers this year. They traded Olli Jokinen for Boynton and Ballard, and they are far superior defensively--plus they're contending for a playoff spot. With the addition McCabe, and JayBo as a holdover, they have a legitimate Top 4 D, with the underrated Karlis Skrastins, and Bryan Allen, filling out the defense corps.

IMHO, with Kuba's presumed departure, the Senators need minimum 2 Top 4 D-Men. Looks like Brian Lee is ready for prime time, but Jason Smith and Picard can't honestly be called Top 4.

Getting a top-4, much less 2, is much easier said than done.

What do you propose? That we sacrifice our future? That we give waaaaay too much money for UFAs? Or that we trade our only established scorers and cripple this team offensively?

Florida has been building for a long time. Yes, getting Ballard helps, but so does the emergence of Frolik, Booth, and their other young forwards. And even then, they're not a lock to make the playoffs.

There aren't any quick fixes. We're not going to just suddenly contend next season.

504Heater wrote:

asq2 wrote:So Phillips, Volchenkov, Smith, Lee and Picard are already on next year's blue-line as it stands.

Unless we go out and get a Bouwmeester (or other top-notch defenceman), is there any real reason to not give our 6th slot to a rookie?

That's the difference to success and being mediocre IMO. If Murray does nothing to acquire a true number one D-man (and he's been terribly unsuccessful thus far), then we'll fill that slot with someone young or middle-tiered D-man and we'll suck next year.

If he fills the number one spot with a top-notch D-man, then I think we take few decent strides forward (depending on Elliot).

A defenceman isn't the only thing we lack.

We desperately need to improve our top-6 winger depth, and we need to find a real second line centre to complement Spezza.

All this we can do through the draft, but it'll take more than one season to do it.

Long-term, we have a first line centre in Spezza, potentially a first line winger if we keep Heatley, great defenceman depth in Karlsson, Lee, Volchenkov, Wiercioch and Picard but we could use a number 1 like Bouwmeester, Cowen or Hedman. We have great bottom-6 depth going forward (especially if we can build that Foligno - O'Brien - Smith line I dream of), and hopefully a goalie in Elliott.

So what we need is to fill out our winger depth, establish a second line and get a #1 defenceman. Defenceman-wise, there are three potentially elite #1s that I can think of that are available, and they are Hedman, Cowen and Fowler. Winger-wise, top-flight wingers are Schroeder (I'm growing to like him more and more) and MSP, and then Kabanov in 2010 (but he's a pipe-dream). Hopefully you can pick up second-line wingers with later first rounders (such as SJs) but this draft isn't great in terms of winger depth from what I see. Centre-wise, there are many many options, the best being Tavares, Duchene, Schenn, Kane and Kadri this season and Hall, Granlund, McFarland and Pulkkinen in 2010.

In terms of the market, top-notch players are rarely let go, overpriced and few and far between. They're also usually older. We're probably not going to pull UFAs in based on the city and we're certainly not going to pull players in based on our competitiveness. So that means if we go the UFA route, we're going to have to overpay, which can have disastrous consequences for the future, especially if the Cap goes down.

Trades are always possible, but the value of players isn't high when the team isn't performing well. The only big draws are probably either guys on the roster we'd like to keep and probably need to be competitive (Spezza, Volchenkov, Heatley) or guys for the future (Karlsson, our first, Lee).

I just don't know that UFAs or Trades can solve our problems. Building through the draft isn't a guarantee either, obviously, but I think the potential benefits are very high.

I can't see a quick fix here.

If we're out of the top-4 and miss Hedman, Cowen, JT and MSP, want Jordan Schroeder.

I know we need a centre but I've been watching the TSN games on demand of the WJHC and Schroeder is unbelievable.

He might be surpassing MSP in my books.

asq2 wrote:

504Heater wrote:

asq2 wrote:So Phillips, Volchenkov, Smith, Lee and Picard are already on next year's blue-line as it stands.

Unless we go out and get a Bouwmeester (or other top-notch defenceman), is there any real reason to not give our 6th slot to a rookie?

That's the difference to success and being mediocre IMO. If Murray does nothing to acquire a true number one D-man (and he's been terribly unsuccessful thus far), then we'll fill that slot with someone young or middle-tiered D-man and we'll suck next year.

If he fills the number one spot with a top-notch D-man, then I think we take few decent strides forward (depending on Elliot).

A defenceman isn't the only thing we lack.

We desperately need to improve our top-6 winger depth, and we need to find a real second line centre to complement Spezza.

All this we can do through the draft, but it'll take more than one season to do it.

Long-term, we have a first line centre in Spezza, potentially a first line winger if we keep Heatley, great defenceman depth in Karlsson, Lee, Volchenkov, Wiercioch and Picard but we could use a number 1 like Bouwmeester, Cowen or Hedman. We have great bottom-6 depth going forward (especially if we can build that Foligno - O'Brien - Smith line I dream of), and hopefully a goalie in Elliott.

So what we need is to fill out our winger depth, establish a second line and get a #1 defenceman. Defenceman-wise, there are three potentially elite #1s that I can think of that are available, and they are Hedman, Cowen and Fowler. Winger-wise, top-flight wingers are Schroeder (I'm growing to like him more and more) and MSP, and then Kabanov in 2010 (but he's a pipe-dream). Hopefully you can pick up second-line wingers with later first rounders (such as SJs) but this draft isn't great in terms of winger depth from what I see. Centre-wise, there are many many options, the best being Tavares, Duchene, Schenn, Kane and Kadri this season and Hall, Granlund, McFarland and Pulkkinen in 2010.

In terms of the market, top-notch players are rarely let go, overpriced and few and far between. They're also usually older. We're probably not going to pull UFAs in based on the city and we're certainly not going to pull players in based on our competitiveness. So that means if we go the UFA route, we're going to have to overpay, which can have disastrous consequences for the future, especially if the Cap goes down.

Trades are always possible, but the value of players isn't high when the team isn't performing well. The only big draws are probably either guys on the roster we'd like to keep and probably need to be competitive (Spezza, Volchenkov, Heatley) or guys for the future (Karlsson, our first, Lee).

I just don't know that UFAs or Trades can solve our problems. Building through the draft isn't a guarantee either, obviously, but I think the potential benefits are very high.

I can't see a quick fix here.

Agreed with all of the above!

Then the youth movement is IMO what we should be targetting and that would mean giving Mattias Karlsson a look before Semenov.

IMHO one of the key issues in this 'makeover' centres around the evolution of Jason Spezza. He has become a controversial figure this year, probably due to his very public contract extension, but also because it seems there are tremendous expectations of him.

He is a very intriguing player to watch. Sometimes, his skill is dazzling. On many occasions though, he seems to be skating in his own world.

When I watch a Rick Nash, Ovechkin, Crosby, Iginla, I never feel that these guys are anything less than One Hundred and Ten Percent (to use a hackneyed phrase) ENGAGED in the MOMENT.

Hockey is IMHO--and some may feel I am reaching here for a metaphor--very much a 'Zen' sport. I equate hockey players to 'samurai on skates'. (obviously with less violent consequences 8) )

The ability to focus oneself completely and become part of the moment, completely convergent with the action, and yet able to change the dynamic with a decisive, precise act, is synonymous with the ultimate state of being of the martial artist.

Jason Spezza has the skill. But he needs, IMHO, the schooling of a 'master' and the will to transform himself and his game to go to a championship level.

Steve Yzerman underwent such a transformation years ago, from offensive star on an underachieving team to the consummate leader of a championship club.

Vincent Lecavalier underwent his own, not dissimilar, transformation.

Mr Spezza could, if he chose, raise his game to such a level--which could even make him a worthy successor to Daniel Alfredsson as captain.

If Spezza does this, that might be the accelerator that drives Ottawa's return to competitiveness.

If not, it might be time to consider alternatives.

I look forward to the opinions of my fellow posters.

I think Spezza had a stretch where he was really unimpressive and unmotivated but over the last stretch he's been by far and away our best player.

His defensive play is improving and his game is becoming smarter. He needs, in my opinion, a mentor coach as Yzerman had or a veteran skilled centre as a mentor.

I wouldn't deal him. He's 25, and the future of this team going forward. I also think he's the best player on the roster currently.

He needs to start hitting though.

I think also that Spezza's lack of success has a lot to do with the team around him. Nobody has taken more of a hit than Spezza in regards to public perception, but I think again it has to do with the loss of skill and speed this team has experienced.

Spezza has lacked a centre remotely as good as he is offensively, he has lacked a second line capable of scoring consistently since 2005-2006, and a veteran coach, and elite puck-moving defencemen since that time as well.

As a 21 or 22 year old on that 2005-2006 team, Spezza had all of those and his production levels were almost identical to Malkin's at the same age, a 109 point season if stretched out over 82 games. With the loss of Havlat, Chara and Hasek, the team suffered and Spezza's production fell to 106 points over a full season span. Last season was a trainwreck collapse and Spezza's production fell to 100 points over a full season.

Now, with no skill at all around him and no veteran head coach, his production over an 82 game season is around 70 points. Part of that, of course, can also be attributed to his improvement defensively.

Fortunately, we have skill coming up in terms of puck-movement in Lee, Wiercioch and the potentially elite Erik Karlsson. A veteran coach can be added when the team begins to compete again. And the draft represents a possibility to add new skill around him.

At 25, Jason Spezza has a lot of good hockey left in him. And in this last stretch he's shown more and more ability to take a game over. If you saw the third period or the OT frame against Montreal, you'd see one of the most dominant players in the game wearing #19.

Would you agree, then, that it's really up to Jason Spezza to decide if he wants to a great player, rather than just a very skilled (and very well paid) one?

To a extent, yes, but his level of production really depends on the team around him.

asq2 wrote:To a extent, yes, but his level of production really depends on the team around him.

Well, if you look a player's contribution not only in terms of statistical production, but in terms of leadership, don't you agree that a true star makes the team around him better?

Take Jarome Iginla. No matter who comes and goes on the Flames, no matter whether he's scoring or not, no matter whether they are winning or not, Jarome Iginla is a leader. He ignites his team game in, game out. Iginla is a player who captivates you because his level of intensity is constant.

Great players do that.

Does Spezza have the potential, or desire, in your opinion, to be that kind of player?
:study:

davetherave wrote:

asq2 wrote:To a extent, yes, but his level of production really depends on the team around him.

Well, if you look a player's contribution not only in terms of statistical production, but in terms of leadership, don't you agree that a true star makes the team around him better?

Take Jarome Iginla. No matter who comes and goes on the Flames, no matter whether he's scoring or not, no matter whether they are winning or not, Jarome Iginla is a leader. He ignites his team game in, game out. Iginla is a player who captivates you because his level of intensity is constant.

Great players do that.

Does Spezza have the potential, or desire, in your opinion, to be that kind of player?
:study:

My two cents:

Spezza will never be a take charge leader like Messier I don't think, but we have seen at times, the type of game that could make him more of a Steve Yzerman type player. During the cup run, he got into it physically, most notable against Gary Roberts. He refused to let himself be pushed around. The problem with Spezza is that he does not show this side too often. He also has a very laid back attitude, often laughing during interviews, almost to the point of appearing goofy. Some people may interpret this as not caring.

He has all the tools. We've even seen him get and play pissed off. He needs to accept the role of responsibility that comes with being the franchise centre. He needs to embrace it, and stick with it. That's the core of the frustration for most Sens fans. It's there, we've seen it. We just want to see it more often.

Imagine if Jason Spezza started playing with Yzerman's intensity, 'team-ness' and focus...
:pirat:

davetherave wrote:Imagine if Jason Spezza started playing with Yzerman's intensity, 'team-ness' and focus...
:pirat:

The trade talk and the whipping boy attitude towards him would pretty well morph into the kind of hero worship that is only reserved for Alfie on this team.

Not to mention that the Senators would be a better team.

asq2 wrote:If we're out of the top-4 and miss Hedman, Cowen, JT and MSP, want Jordan Schroeder.

I know we need a centre but I've been watching the TSN games on demand of the WJHC and Schroeder is unbelievable.

He might be surpassing MSP in my books.

Now that Fisher has had a taste of the wing...anything's possible.

I voted for a PMD although I'm not entirely convinced of the UFA route being our best avenue. If we can get one, great, but they are sooooo expensive. Depending on what we do with our middle contracts, it might be more realistic to get PMDs via trade or by good prospecting/drafting/developing. And yes, that is far easier said than done.

If we do go the UFA route, maybe a quasi-puck mover or two on reasonable contracts (sort of like Kuba) can come in for a year or two while our young defensive talent continues to develop. Having one bona-fide super $$$ PMD is sexy, but having that mobility spread out among slightly less skilled defensemen might be a decent alternative.

As asq and rooney pointed out a while back, the mobility issue probably has a significant tie in to the secondary scoring, so I would definitely re-evaluate our forward's ability to put the puck in the net after tinkering with the back end.

I'm proud to call myself one of the most outspoken members of Tank Nation. :D

I am completely fine with the team sucking until the end of the season and picking up a high pick. The "tanking" I don't want to see is a lack of effort or a total lack of confidence along the way.

My ideal situation is if the Sens get some "character" wins along the way to a top 5 pick, and keep the majority of the losses to one goal, playoff type games. But even with this route I'd like to see some new PMDs come in.