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The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover

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PKC
beerandsens
Phoenix30
asq2
dennycrane
LethalLehner
Jordo
Cap'n Clutch
LeCaptain
wprager
BigRig
PTFlea
Acrobat
davetherave
18 posters

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What should the Sens do next?

The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_lcap20%The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_rcap2 0% [ 0 ]
The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_lcap20%The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_rcap2 0% [ 0 ]
The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_lcap214%The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_rcap2 14% [ 8 ]
The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_lcap221%The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_rcap2 21% [ 12 ]
The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_lcap22%The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_rcap2 2% [ 1 ]
The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_lcap27%The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_rcap2 7% [ 4 ]
The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_lcap230%The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_rcap2 30% [ 17 ]
The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_lcap214%The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_rcap2 14% [ 8 ]
The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_lcap25%The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_rcap2 5% [ 3 ]
The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_lcap25%The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Vote_rcap2 5% [ 3 ]
Total Votes : 56

Poll closed

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1The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Thu Jan 22, 2009 10:50 pm

davetherave

davetherave
All-Star
All-Star

In the ongoing discussions about trading superstars and the 'Race for the Tavares Cup', there's been actually very little talk about the blueprint Bryan Murray announced last summer after the Senators were swept in four games following their end-of-season tailspin.

When Murray came out and said the Senators were going to be 'an accountable, defensively responsible team' that would be 'difficult to play against', did anyone--including the players--know what he really meant?

Halfway into the 2008-09 season, Ottawa fans are still looking for that meaning and a positive on-ice result.

The understandable anger at seeing a team just 18 months removed from a Stanley Cup Final spinning its wheels near the bottom of the league has led to calls for Bryan Murray's firing and a controversy over whether or not the club should 'blown up'.

In fact, Bryan Murray may have been quietly dismantling the team from the time he took over as GM.

Ray Emery's meltdown, however, may have thrown a monkey wrench into his plans.

Consider this: no significant personnel changes were made after the defeat to the Ducks. Given the lessons learned from that series as to the inadequacy of the Ottawa squad against a bigger, tougher opponent, one would have thought Bryan Murray would begin to tinker with the Sens.

Ray Emery represented the toughness and youthful hunger Murray was looking for. However, Emery's decision to have surgery forced the GM and coach to hand the reins to Martin Gerber, who performed quite well as Ottawa got off to a rocket start.

But, if the reports are reliable, Emery's return created chaos. The team apparently took sides in the dispute over who should start in goal and the team imploded.

Paddock was bounced. An apparently highly emotional Joe Corvo was shipped out; Team 1200 commentator and former Senator Jason York recounted today how Corvo's dressing room dramatics had become too much for the team to bear.

The Stillman-Commodore trade was a band-aid that failed to stop the bleeding, and the Senators slid down the slippery slope, reaching the playoffs with a thud.

In retrospect, Wade Redden's reported refusal to waive his NTC may turn out to have been a key factor in the Senators' current struggles. Had he allowed himself to be moved for 'team' players, Ottawa might have been able to begin the 2008-09 season with the elements of Murray's 'new look' Sens in place.

The contentious contract discussions with Meszaros and Vermette only served to further undermine Murray's timetable. He had been trying to trade Vermette throughout the 2007-08 season, and Vermette himself had come out in his RDS blog claiming his play had been 'unaffected' by the trade rumours.

The talk of trading Jason Spezza had been going on for several seasons. The noted hockey analyst from CJRC Corus Sports Ottawa, Alain Sanscartier, has reported that a deal of Spezza for Marty Turco had been in place as far back as the June 2006 draft.

http://www.corussports.com/hockey/spezza_failli_etre_echange-20081111-1273193.html

We can deduce the following interpretation of events:

Perhaps knowing he had to secure his enigmatic superstar as a contracted asset rather than risk losing him to free agency, Bryan Murray put a deal together that locked up young Mr Spezza through 2012/13, just as he had with his atomic powered sniper Dany Heatley.

This did not, however, anticipate the current economic collapse that is now threatening business, and to which pro sports is not immune.

Knowing that a conservative strategy might serve him best, Murray kept a low profile as other teams spent megadollars on players like Bryan Campbell.

He brought in Jason Smith to stabilize the dressing room, and Jarkko Ruutu to light a fire under Chris Neil.

Craig Hartsburg, not just a veteran elite defenseman in his time but also hardened veteran of the NHL coaching wars, offered a tough but low-key, methodical personality that converged with Murray's vision.

He counted on Hartsburg instituting a defence-first system that would mitigate Ottawa's lack of offensive depth, poor transition game and weakness in goal.

Murray could not have foreseen that players like Fisher would go into a slump; Antoine Vermette, however, could not have felt comfortable even with his new deal.

As the season has gone on, the fans have been brought around to the reality that the Senators, slipping in the standings for the past four seasons, are now in need of a makeover.

The players are simply playing to save their jobs.

Bryan Murray will succeed in reducing his salary cap by up to 9 million at the end of this year and up to 11 million at the end of next year.

An experienced draft-oriented GM, Bryan Murray will look to replace the mid-level players he has now with younger, hungrier, cheaper talent.

What Bryan Murray may also be counting on, is the impact that young defensemen are having in the NHL.

This article from Sportsnet is a pretty good summary:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/h...2/nhl_teenage_defencemen/

Frankly speaking, if I were Bryan Murray, I would see Victor Hedman and not John Tavares as the prize in the draft. Shut down the other team, and you can build an attack around a balanced 'no-name' offence.

It's been proven in Detroit, and to a lesser extent in Anaheim (Selanne notwithstanding) as they won the Cup.

Would Ottawa miss one of its so-called 'Big Three'? So far, no one has been able to mount an objective, convincing case.

On the other hand, if a Jason Spezza or Dany Heatley fetches three or four two-way players, prospects and/or picks in return, that can change the equation of Ottawa's rebuilding process.

Columbus seems to be making excellent progress with just Rick Nash; Chicago with Kane and Toews; and Philadelphia with Richards and Carter.

Meanwhile, Ottawa has four, count 'em four, high priced forwards.

Do the math.


Strangely, the Ottawa hockey media doesn't discuss any of these aspects in depth. They rattle on about 'what's wrong with the Senators', revving up the fan base so that the blogs are filled and the telephone lines heat up, driving page hits and making the radio time more valuable for advertisers.

But pro hockey is, first and foremost an entertainment business, as the venerable coach 'Hitch' has said. The fans, by and large, are intelligent enough to understand that.

The question could be, is the ownership of the Ottawa Senators, and the mainstream media, ready to give the fans credit for their intelligence?

Thanks for the opportunity to post here, and looking forward to the discussion.



Last edited by davetherave on Fri Jan 23, 2009 11:31 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : corrections)

2The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Thu Jan 22, 2009 11:08 pm

Acrobat

Acrobat
Veteran
Veteran

I voted twice because I could.

I think one of the big three has to go. And some of the middle "core group" has to go. The latter is more important than the former though; ultimately, the "Detroit model" is best - solid but cheap goalies (don't have to be superstars, just reliable, however Elliot may be our ace in the hole here), and a rock-solid to downright fear-inspiring defense.

All the justification was already made quite clearly above. Murray has a plan, and the moves are being made. It may take years to see the final result though.

3The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Thu Jan 22, 2009 11:18 pm

davetherave

davetherave
All-Star
All-Star

Thanks! I am really interested to know what the members of the forum think. This is an excellent site.
Puking2

4The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Thu Jan 22, 2009 11:43 pm

PTFlea

PTFlea
Co-Founder
Co-Founder

I voted for UFA puck mover. We so desperately need a number one D-man to start getting back into contention. I'm convinced that we can trade Kelly and Smith, Kuba by the deadline, and possibly Vermette and Neil and have enough $$ to make an impact signing in the off-season for a D-man.

Problem is, there aren't many coming up for UFA that fit our need. There's Bouwmeester, but getting him is gonna be a ton of money for this team to take on.

Good news is: by the time Karlsson, Foligno, A-Train etc. are all up for renewal Phillips will be coming off the books and Fisher's NMC will become a limited NTC.

I want to see this team get a killer number one D-man. UFA or trade, we need one so badly (actually we need 2).

5The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Thu Jan 22, 2009 11:49 pm

davetherave

davetherave
All-Star
All-Star

504Heater wrote:I voted for UFA puck mover. We so desperately need a number one D-man to start getting back into contention. I'm convinced that we can trade Kelly and Smith, Kuba by the deadline, and possibly Vermette and Neil and have enough $$ to make an impact signing in the off-season for a D-man.

Problem is, there aren't many coming up for UFA that fit our need. There's Bouwmeester, but getting him is gonna be a ton of money for this team to take on.

I want to see this team get a killer number one D-man. UFA or trade, we need one so badly (actually we need 2).

What do you think of Francois Beauchemin, and the rumours that the Ducks are prepared to trade Chris Pronger?

Here's the list of UFAs for this summer:
http://nhlnumbers.com/freeagents.php

6The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Thu Jan 22, 2009 11:53 pm

PTFlea

PTFlea
Co-Founder
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davetherave wrote:
What do you think of Francois Beauchemin, and the rumours that the Ducks are prepared to trade Chris Pronger?

Here's the list of UFAs for this summer:
http://nhlnumbers.com/freeagents.php

The Chris Pronger thing really split a lot of people as well. I hate him with a passion, but good Lord he's everything we need on the backend. He's a mean, nasty SOB who can rack up points. In the absence of Chara I truly feel this team has lost its identity on the blueline. Pronger would fit that like a glove, but he's an Donkey and getting him would probably be really tough - and he's only got one more year left, so there's not enough time to use him properly.

Good trade bait for next deadline though. So would Kaberle if we couldn't re-sigh him (he's in 2 years I think).

Beauchemin is a great D-man, but he kinda crashed back down to earth recently, then his horrific injury. It's a huge risk and I kinda wonder if he's the right kind of D-man for this team. We could use a Shea Webber or Boumeester (along with 28 other teams :D )

7The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:00 am

davetherave

davetherave
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All-Star

Well, Shea Weber is probably a Norris candidate this year...and the bidding for JayBo may go through the roof.

Beauchemin was a rock for the Ducks, and his absence is one of the reasons they are struggling, so that tells you how valuable he is.

You are right, Pronger is a nasty piece of business, but he has proved his worth on every team he has played for.

If I were Bryan Murray I might take a chance on him. If I were Bob Gainey I would grab him.

Luke Schenn is turning out to be a brilliant acquisition for Toronto. Is there a kid like that out there?



Last edited by davetherave on Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:02 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : correction)

8The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:09 am

PTFlea

PTFlea
Co-Founder
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davetherave wrote:Well, Shea Weber is probably a Norris candidate this year...and the bidding for JayBo may go through the roof.

Beauchemin was a rock for the Ducks, and his absence is one of the reasons they are struggling, so that tells you how valuable he is.

You are right, Pronger is a nasty piece of business, but he has proved his worth on every team he has played for.

If I were Bryan Murray I might take a chance on him. If I were Bob Gainey I would grab him.

Luke Schenn is turning out to be a brilliant acquisition for Toronto. Is there a kid like that out there?

That's tough though because Toronto drafted fifth overall or whatever it was. If the season ended today I would suggest someone really fun was coming our way, but as for acquiring someone...really tough.

Erik Karlsson is such a stud that we might have to wait for him. Weircioch is a horse as well, but he's a solid 2 years+ away.

But the guy you're talking about is J-Bo. He's Schenn-ish, but with speed and offence as well. I doubt he would choose to come here to begin with, then his contract...that's the guy though. Can't think of many others worth our time and picks etc.

9The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Fri Jan 23, 2009 6:34 am

BigRig

BigRig
Rookie
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davetherave wrote:Thanks! I am really interested to know what the members of the forum think. This is an excellent site.
Puking2


welcome dude, very well written post! very true in many ways you get a ... cheers

10The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Fri Jan 23, 2009 7:40 am

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator

I voted to trade fromt he middle of the roster.

Funny, though, you listed Fisher among those, yet you also have him as one a high-priced forward to make another argument.

Chicago is in a situation where some of their stars are still on entry-level contracts, so don't compare them to the Sens. Wait until Kane and Toews are extended, and Havlat an Kahbibulin are gone to see which way they really will go.

Philly's top 4 makes 22.5 compared to our 23.149. Not a huge difference, is it? Also their #5 is making 4.2, what our #4 is making.

This argument (that we have too much in our top three or top four forwards) has been made many times before and Rooney and I have both shown counter-examples that at least question it, if not completely blow it out of the water.

Look, Fisher is making top-four money but producing like a bottom-3. Similarly, Vermette is making top-six money and producing (last 5 games aside) like a bottom three.

If you take their nearly 7 million combined and replace it with two guys making ~1 each and producing the same numbers, then we are not even having this discussion. And if they were producing what you expect 4.2 and 2.7 players to produce, the Sens are in a playoff spot and, again, we aren't having this discussion.

Other than that, good post.

11The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Fri Jan 23, 2009 8:46 am

LeCaptain

LeCaptain
All-Star
All-Star

My theory is simple. Before trading Forwards away, and God knows its already thin down there in the middle, Id like to try the PMD experiment with them. Vermette is like N1 in scoring in the team in the last ten games (10GP, 10Points), and most of them came on the PP. I'm pretty sure it has something to do with Brian Lee. The biggest difference I saw in the last games is our forwards dump the puck less resulting in less perimeter plays.
So, either we trade Vermette and Kelly and have 1 top 6 and 1 top 9 going back, or I say forget it.

12The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Fri Jan 23, 2009 9:11 am

Cap'n Clutch

Cap'n Clutch
Co-Founder
Co-Founder

I voted move out some middle range contracts although I would be OK with keeping Vermette if he's used properly and gets some key PP time. I've been fooled by this guy before though and would also be fine with moving him as long as there was a cheaper alternative that can put up the numbers we expect from Vermette.

As far as getting that PMD or that Nasty Chara-esque type D-man I don't know if it's a realistic goal. I agree with Heater in saying we may have to wait for E. Karlsson and to a lesser extent Weircioch. Lets also not give up on Lee because if he continues progressing he'll be a solid PMD when E. Karlsson arrives.


_________________
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13The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Fri Jan 23, 2009 11:27 am

davetherave

davetherave
All-Star
All-Star

wprager wrote:

This argument (that we have too much in our top three or top four forwards) has been made many times before and Rooney and I have both shown counter-examples that at least question it, if not completely blow it out of the water.

Look, Fisher is making top-four money but producing like a bottom-3. Similarly, Vermette is making top-six money and producing (last 5 games aside) like a bottom three.

If you take their nearly 7 million combined and replace it with two guys making ~1 each and producing the same numbers, then we are not even having this discussion. And if they were producing what you expect 4.2 and 2.7 players to produce, the Sens are in a playoff spot and, again, we aren't having this discussion.

Other than that, good post.

First off, I want to thank everybody who has responded to this post. Great discussion.

Some pretty good points made here, especially about Philly, and yes, our esteemed colleague is correct.

However, as he also says, the Flyers are winning and Ottawa is not.

So does that mean it's OK to load up on the front end? IMHO, it's a dangerous strategy.

Philadelphia does have potential issues with Briere's cap impact, and has two question marks in Martin Biron and Antero Niittymäki.

Boston appears to have acheived the best balance so far in the East. Significantly, they are run by an ex-Senators executive in Peter Chiarelli.

The central question for Senators, and the one that seems to elicit the most controversy, is whether or not one of the 'Big Three' (which are becoming the 'Big Two' as Alfredsson slows down) should be traded for a package of younger, less expensive talent.

More importantly, are Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley, fundamentally, the players who will assume the leadership of the club, commensurate with their salaries?

In this respect, the contrast between the impact of Mike Richards/Jeff Carter on their team as opposed to Spezza/Heatley can be debated.

There are arguments to be made both ways, and I look forward to everyone's continuing perspectives.

:D

14The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:28 pm

Jordo

Jordo
Sophomore
Sophomore

504Heater wrote:I voted for UFA puck mover. We so desperately need a number one D-man to start getting back into contention. I'm convinced that we can trade Kelly and Smith, Kuba by the deadline, and possibly Vermette and Neil and have enough $$ to make an impact signing in the off-season for a D-man.

Problem is, there aren't many coming up for UFA that fit our need. There's Bouwmeester, but getting him is gonna be a ton of money for this team to take on.

Good news is: by the time Karlsson, Foligno, A-Train etc. are all up for renewal Phillips will be coming off the books and Fisher's NMC will become a limited NTC.

I want to see this team get a killer number one D-man. UFA or trade, we need one so badly (actually we need 2).

No Heater. I can't agree with you here. Chris Kelly for 2mil long term is a ridiculous deal for what he does for this team. There's no value in trading him- we might get like a 2nd rd pick for him, what's that worth? He's one of our few GOOD depth guys. It's my opinion that what we will get in return for Kelly is not worth losing his services. I'd much sooner trade one of the big three and get a good return, balanced scoring and some cap space then trade Kelly for nothing. All your other guys can go, but not Kelly.

15The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Empty Re: The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:32 pm

LethalLehner

LethalLehner
Sophomore
Sophomore

I voted to tank and try to get Hedman or Tavares. This still would not stop us from doing most of the others things on the list but it would be a good start.

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