wprager wrote:Suppose that next year, or the year after that, we're really close. Would you trade one of Rundblad or Wiercioch at the deadline to get a *real* top-six forward for a Cup run?
Think about it. Gonchar and Karlsson are lighting it up on the PP, Phillips is teaching Cowen the ropes and the kid's learning fast, O'Brien is a younger, faster, less-penalty-prone Ruutu, and your top six consists of the ageless Alfie, Spezza, Michalek, Fisher and one of Regin and Foligno -- hopefully one of them has finally learned what consistency requires. Butler isn't the answer, and neither are the young Swedes. Do you pull the trigger?
No. If we're a really good team (re: tough enough to battle it out in the playoffs, deep on the blue-line, good-to-excellent goaltending) but needed a top-6 forward then I'd rather part with our first rounder than deal Rundblad or Wiercioch. Again, you don't want to end up dealing the wrong guy, and both have significant potential.
As far as Wiercioch being the "odd man out" (not your quote but I don't want to quote everyone) I get that he's the most easily dealt but I think the only way that statement applies would be if we had 7 or 8 blue-chip d-men. A top-4 guy is still going to play mega minutes.
I think I differ from a lot of people in that I look at the early years of RL, EK, JC, DR, PW as potentially being a time to rebuild. Alfie will likely be gone, Kuba and Kovalev definitely will, Gonchar might get one or two years with Rundblad but I doubt he's here beyond this current contract, Phillips and Fisher may be past their primes, RKN as a unit won't be here, etc. I suppose there is a good chance Spezza, Foligno, Michalek and Regin will be here and we'll have money to spend on a better supporting cast, though.
I just feel that the five blue-chippers on the back-end are all going to go through growing pains and it's not realistic to expect them to form the back-end of a Stanley Cup contender until at least 24-25. I think the early 20s years are a good time to try to pick up some elite forwards in the draft, since they typically develop faster than defencemen do.
Then you pursue top-notch FAs looking to be a part of a young, exciting and potentially contending team. It's sort of the Chicago approach (and why earlier on in the season while we were sucking I was dreaming about landing both
Kane and Toews RNH and Couturier in the draft).
But, in a lot of ways it's really hard to predict what'll happen down the road and Spezza's showing, albeit against lesser teams, that he can produce without Alfredsson -- which is a good thing, I guess.
I don't expect us to ever try to do anything more than "retool" rather than "rebuild."