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Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM

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jamvan
SensGirl11
Acrobat
LeCaptain
strachattack
PKC
Cronie
Phoenix30
asq2
top shelf15
PTFlea
davetherave
The Silfer Server
Cap'n Clutch
Hockeyhero22000
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166Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Fri May 01, 2009 4:38 pm

Guest


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PKC, the point I was trying to make is, right now the core the Sens have isnt good enough to win the cup and the leadership from the people who are supposed to be providing it, cant. No UFA will help this team because its simply a matter of the players we currently have no being able to do the job.

Our defense isnt good enough to compete with the best teams in the league and the Sens weapons up front have been shut down for well over a year now (2 seasons almost) and they bring nothing else to the game when they dont produce.

The makeup of the team is totally wrong and Murray started the transition by obtaining Leclaire and resigning Kuba. No UFA will make this team better or more competitive up front, on the back end, if its the right guy, thats the way to go.

A lot of things to be sorted out in house before they go out and start signing guys.

167Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Fri May 01, 2009 4:56 pm

PTFlea


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Bass Destruction wrote:
I heard that Nashville didn't want to sign Sullivan to a long contract, that they wanted to re-sign him, but to a 1 or 2 year contract.

And I've heard the same thing about Foster. The fans also seem to love him, and he always does so much for the community.

Fair enough. Recently there have been reports that he wants a 3-4 year deal at 4+ million (Sullivan that is).

168Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Fri May 01, 2009 5:40 pm

Acrobat


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Neely4Life wrote:right now the core the Sens have isnt good enough to win the cup and the leadership from the people who are supposed to be providing it, cant. No UFA will help this team because its simply a matter of the players we currently have not being able to do the job.

...

The makeup of the team is totally wrong and Murray started the transition by obtaining Leclaire and resigning Kuba. No UFA will make this team better or more competitive up front, on the back end, if its the right guy, thats the way to go.

A lot of things to be sorted out in house before they go out and start signing guys.

I may not agree with everything N4L says, but I think this is a good summary of where the team is at.

Murray is in the process of re-constructing the team, and his actions thus far suggest that he is building from the goal-line outward. As he rebuilds, he is clearly trying to eliminate the "character issues" that may persist (what we believe/know about them is not relevant to this discussion). He has also made moves that, for the most part, are cap-savvy - the exceptions possibly being Spezza and Fisher.

I would doubt that he'll bring in a high-priced UFA at this point unless we are shipping out a higher-priced talent; even if the cap does go up next year, it will drop the subsequent year(s), and Murray will be aware of the implications.

(IIRC, the way the NTCs are set up, it states that if Spezza is traded before July 1, the team that gets him is under no obligation to honour the NTC, however if the trade occurs on or after July 1, the NTC stands. Therefore, Spezza is actually more valuable before UFA day.)

169Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Fri May 01, 2009 5:43 pm

Phoenix30

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I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I would prefer Murray stay away from Sullivan. His injury history and age worry me. He did well in half a season but I wonder how well his back could hold up to a full 82 games. After all his back problems appear to have started in 06.

As for Foster I don't know much about him but do like his size and he is a right handed shot. He could be a good additon to the team especially coming from a defensive minded system in Minnie. As he has played an average of 45 games over the past 4 seasons I wouldn't want to over pay for him at this stage.

170Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Fri May 01, 2009 6:54 pm

davetherave

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I'm reading a lot about players here, as if plugging personnel into slots is an instant fix.

Very little about the importance of transforming the culture on this team from an 'entitlement mentality' into a 'championship mentality'.

As one watches the playoffs, the differences between the teams participating, and the Senators, become more evident.

It's not about stats.

It's about team first.

It's about putting one's individual accomplishments aside and being ready to get one's nose (or other body parts) bent and broken, teeth knocked out, and goodness knows what other damage.

Do everything one needs to do, each and every shift, to win.

Alfredsson, Volchenkov, Foligno, Shannon, Phillips fit the profile.

Jason Smith, Chris Neil and Shean Donovan as well, but who may have seen their best days.

Questions beyond that...perhaps? And who?

And no one with a Cup ring?

Isn't that a necessary ingredient?

What is Bryan Murray's role in shaping this team in those respects, and how well/not well has he done?

Looking forward to reading the responses as this excellent discussion continues.

171Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Fri May 01, 2009 7:14 pm

Guest


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Ding ding ding, the is all correct Dave. Until the culture changes the win/loss record when it matter will not.

172Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Sat May 02, 2009 11:43 am

Acrobat

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This was why Smith was brought in - he is one of the real warriors on the ice (along with Volchenkov). Unfortunately, the negatives seemed to outweigh his positive influence (at least as far as the incumbent Senators stand).

Looking at the B-Sens, though, the ones that came up seemed to have a bit more of an edge, and seemed a bit more ready to give it up. Having said that, they mostly are fighting for third/fourth line spots, as nobody has been ready to bench Spezza or Heatley (despite their effort/performance), so one would expect a grittier style of play.

Much as I fear it could come back to bite us in the a$$, I suspect that one of the two $7M+ cap hits won't be with us come July 1.

173Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Sat May 02, 2009 12:17 pm

davetherave

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Acrobat wrote:This was why Smith was brought in - he is one of the real warriors on the ice (along with Volchenkov). Unfortunately, the negatives seemed to outweigh his positive influence (at least as far as the incumbent Senators stand).

Looking at the B-Sens, though, the ones that came up seemed to have a bit more of an edge, and seemed a bit more ready to give it up. Having said that, they mostly are fighting for third/fourth line spots, as nobody has been ready to bench Spezza or Heatley (despite their effort/performance), so one would expect a grittier style of play.

Much as I fear it could come back to bite us in the a$$, I suspect that one of the two $7M+ cap hits won't be with us come July 1.

Warrior, yes...Stanley Cup Champion, no.

Key fact:

The last three Stanley Cup Champions all had at least one player on their roster with a Stanley Cup ring.

So this would seem to suggest this is an essential element--given all the others-- for any team that aspires to the ultimate prize.

This ingredient is currently missing from the Senators.

Should this be a priority for Mr Murray?

174Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Sat May 02, 2009 1:16 pm

Acrobat

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The problem was that there wasn't anyone available at a reasonable price.

Boyle was available, but at a $6.5-$7M cap hit, and with the potential for a freeze on the previously rising total cap space looming at the time (now, we are looking at possible reductions over the next few years), the fact that we didn't pick him up may have also kept the screws from getting even tighter.

As far as having at least one winner on your roster, I would argue that the impact of one player is only as much as the other players allow it to be; they have to be willing to accept the positive influence. Also, keep the total statistics in mind:

There are at least 630 players active in the NHL (21 players per team, 30 teams, plus injury call-ups, etc)
The average career of an NHL player is 7 years; most will play for at least two teams over their career
In the last 7 years (excluding lockout), six different teams have won the cup; only a couple of players have played on more than one of those teams.

This means that, by statistics alone, if the players were to be randomly re-distributed, there is a little less than 1/3 chance of any particular team having a player with a ring. To have three teams in a row with players with rings, the odds are small, definitely, at around 2.7%, but not outside random chance (very close to the odds of rolling snake-eyes)

Adjust this further by noting that success attracts success (e.g. Hossa to Detroit.) Also note that one of the three is Detroit, which is simply "evolved" from the team that was winning the cup ten years ago, so there are multiple winners still present. Odds then jump to well over 10%, somewhat akin to getting three heads in a row when flipping a coin.

All this to say that having the actual ring may not be the key component. There are some players who "get it" after playing in the ECF/WCF, some only once they play in the SCF. There are even a select few that seem to get it the moment they step onto the ice for the first time. Sadly, Ottawa seems to have accumulated too many (that means any more than zero) who just don't seem to get it, and perhaps never will.

As an add-on to this, your initial point was that perhaps BM has passed his "Best Before" date, and that it's time to bring in some younger talent, who can keep up. Others have pointed at the Heatley, Spezza, & Fisher contracts as proof.

I would contend that his biggest errors came in mismanaging the coaching hires, and allowing the Emery situation to fester for too long.

The Heatley contract is in line with what he would have gotten on the free market; Heatley chose to tune out once the coach tried to implement a system that was wrong for him. He improved (marginally) once Clouston was coaching. Away from Spezza, he has the potential to be an elite power forward, not just a sniper, and I would expect him to make this transition next year, or to enjoy the view from the end of the bench.

The Spezza contract was also financially in line with market, but had the foresight of delaying the NTC. Murray now has the power to move Spezza. The subtlety of giving a NTC instead of NMC suggests to me that he has gotten pre-approval from Melnyk to send Spezza down to Bingo for a while also, if necessary "for conditioning", and that he has considered the potential for having to waive him (ouch - $$$). Clearly, of the two, Spezza was seen as more expendable early on.

Fisher's contract has openings in the NMC/NTC starting 2011-12. This will potentially be the first or second year of dropping cap space. His play will also potentially lead to an increase in injuries and thus less playing time. Murray has left his options open, to a certain extent, in return for a slightly higher salary now.

Murray started with a team that appeared to be running smoothly, but in fact was on the verge of imploding. He has stabilized whatever core he had, but left as much room to maneuver as possible, meanwhile he has quietly rebuilt a decimated farm system. Sometimes you need to take a few steps backwards before you can resume your forward march.

175Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Sat May 02, 2009 7:16 pm

davetherave

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Acro, that's an extremely eloquent--even acrobatic--explanation.

There are more than a few Cup winners who don't cost Boyle money.

Francois Beauchemin and Travis Moen, to name but two who are UFAs this summer.

And you haven't answered the question: should getting one or more players with Cup rings be a priority for BM?

176Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Sat May 02, 2009 7:39 pm

asq2

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davetherave wrote:Acro, that's an extremely eloquent--even acrobatic--explanation.

There are more than a few Cup winners who don't cost Boyle money.

Francois Beauchemin and Travis Moen, to name but two who are UFAs this summer.

And you haven't answered the question: should getting one or more players with Cup rings be a priority for BM?

Did it help us in 2007-2008?

177Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Sat May 02, 2009 7:54 pm

davetherave

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asq2 wrote:
davetherave wrote:Acro, that's an extremely eloquent--even acrobatic--explanation.

There are more than a few Cup winners who don't cost Boyle money.

Francois Beauchemin and Travis Moen, to name but two who are UFAs this summer.

And you haven't answered the question: should getting one or more players with Cup rings be a priority for BM?

Did it help us in 2007-2008?

To answer your glib quip, evidently not...perhaps BM should have kept Stillman longer..or perhaps he got the wrong man with a Ring, hm?

178Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Sat May 02, 2009 9:38 pm

asq2

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davetherave wrote:
asq2 wrote:
davetherave wrote:Acro, that's an extremely eloquent--even acrobatic--explanation.

There are more than a few Cup winners who don't cost Boyle money.

Francois Beauchemin and Travis Moen, to name but two who are UFAs this summer.

And you haven't answered the question: should getting one or more players with Cup rings be a priority for BM?

Did it help us in 2007-2008?

To answer your glib quip, evidently not...perhaps BM should have kept Stillman longer..or perhaps he got the wrong man with a Ring, hm?

I think the latter was my point. Having guys in the room with Cup Rings helps, certainly, and that kind of experience would be nice to add in the organization at other levels as well, but I'm not sure simply adding Cup-Winners is going to help you.

179Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Sat May 02, 2009 10:02 pm

davetherave

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ASQ...as I said...

The last three Stanley Cup Champions all had at least one player on their roster with a Stanley Cup ring.

So this would seem to suggest this is an essential element--given all the others-- for any team that aspires to the ultimate prize.

180Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Sat May 02, 2009 10:13 pm

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20 roster spots on a team. that means every year twenty players win the cup. It shouldnt be too hard to find players who have won the cup at one point.

would you rather have Ovechkin or Drew Miller? Having a cup ring means Jack Schit if you had little effect on winning it.

181Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Sat May 02, 2009 10:23 pm

davetherave

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The Guy With The Mustache wrote:20 roster spots on a team. that means every year twenty players win the cup. It shouldnt be too hard to find players who have won the cup at one point.

would you rather have Ovechkin or Drew Miller? Having a cup ring means Jack Schit if you had little effect on winning it.

Who did Jack Schit play for again? Wink

182Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Sat May 02, 2009 10:26 pm

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Springfield Isotopes

You don't know Jack Schit? Sarcasm

183Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM - Page 12 Empty Re: Bryan Murray's capabilities as a GM Sat May 02, 2009 10:28 pm

asq2

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davetherave wrote:ASQ...as I said...

The last three Stanley Cup Champions all had at least one player on their roster with a Stanley Cup ring.

So this would seem to suggest this is an essential element--given all the others-- for any team that aspires to the ultimate prize.

Still, if you go into this off-season looking for Cup-Winners rather than players who will help your team, and miss the playoffs, what have you done?

If the player is both someone who fills a need and has a Cup Ring, then excellent. But I'd rather, in regards to the off-season, have Murray pursue players that he feels most help our team. You can bring in a Cup-Winner or two at the deadline, if need be.

All past three Stanley Cup Champions had a 34 year old on the roster. I doubt Murray took that into consideration when re-signing Shean Donovan or adding Jarkko Ruutu.

Obviously, that's far more likely to be a coincidence. But I think the type of player you add matters more than whether they have a ring or not. Continuing from what Dusty said, I doubt Drew Miller would stand up in a locker-room and deliver a rousing speech to rally the troops in a game-7 scenario because of their Cup experience. Gerber's ring certainly didn't help us out.

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