How do we fix the Senators

Or maybe it's true what's been recently said about Jason Smith.

LeCaptain wrote:We've developped one good defenseman in 8 years.
If you want to fix the Senators, you know where to start.

Yep.

tim1_2 wrote:

LeCaptain wrote:We've developped one good defenseman in 8 years.
If you want to fix the Senators, you know where to start.

It sounds Cussing depressing when you put it that way.  But true.  One legit top-4 dman.

Ceci, Karlsson.

Flo The Action wrote:

Ev wrote:White won't be rushed. He'll be ready. He's better than zibanejad right now, most likely

Ya. Right. Sounds awfully similar to when everyone was saying Paul was ready to jump to the NHL. Yet he's doing average in Bingo. I'd say you let him take his game through the different levels instead of rushing yet another prospect.

just because people would say he was "rushed" doesn't mean he was rushed. You don't understand how goof White is right now and how polished he is. That would be like saying the Wings rushed Larkin.

wprager wrote:

Ev wrote:White won't be rushed. He'll be ready. He's better than zibanejad right now, most likely

Playing 4th line with Neil/Smith, I agree, better in the AHL.  But playing 4th line with other top-9 type players is not rushing.  By all accounts he's NHL ready but by playing him on the 4th line you are bringing him up slowly.  

Neil won't be on the team. He will play 3rd line at the least, with good wingers.

Ev wrote:

Flo The Action wrote:

Ev wrote:White won't be rushed. He'll be ready. He's better than zibanejad right now, most likely

Ya. Right. Sounds awfully similar to when everyone was saying Paul was ready to jump to the NHL. Yet he's doing average in Bingo. I'd say you let him take his game through the different levels instead of rushing yet another prospect.

just because people would say he was "rushed" doesn't mean he was rushed. You don't understand how goof White is right now and how polished he is. That would be like saying the Wings rushed Larkin.

As long as he doesn't go to Bingo. That place is a dump right now.

Ev wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:

LeCaptain wrote:We've developped one good defenseman in 8 years.
If you want to fix the Senators, you know where to start.

It sounds Cussing depressing when you put it that way.  But true.  One legit top-4 dman.

Ceci, Karlsson.

Dude, I get that you like Ceci. I like him too. But you can't call him a legit top 4 defenceman right now. He should be on the bottom pairing, but is being forced into top 4 minutes by default.

tim1_2 wrote:

Ev wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:

LeCaptain wrote:We've developped one good defenseman in 8 years.
If you want to fix the Senators, you know where to start.

It sounds Cussing depressing when you put it that way.  But true.  One legit top-4 dman.

Ceci, Karlsson.

Dude, I get that you like Ceci.  I like him too.  But you can't call him a legit top 4 defenceman right now.  He should be on the bottom pairing, but is being forced into top 4 minutes by default.

I disagree. Is he among the top-10 second-pairing D-men in the league? Nope, of course not. But he *is* a legit 2nd pairing D-man right now. He has decent size, can skate, has good speed, offensive potential, and he has played both PP and PK as a 19 year old. He's very well rounded for his young age and will continue to progress.

(and look, I haven't said anything about his hot sister)

I looked at the stats of 2-nd pairing D-men from several teams. I sorted based on TOI/Game making the assumption that the 3rd/4th guys were the likely 2nd pairing. It's not perfect but it's something. This is what I've got (games goals/assists/points +/-):

Bston:
Seidenberg - 34 0/7/7 -2
Miller - 43 3/10/13 +6

Wings:
Green - 44 2/17/19 -6
Ericsson - 45 1/7/8 +6

Panthers:
Kulikov - 42 1/7/8 +11
Mitchell - 46 1/6/7 -2

And now compare these to Ceci - 44 5/10/15 -2

Don't forget that Ottawa is a -17 (goal differential) team; Detroit is -4, Boston is +15, Florida is +30!

How is Ceci *not* a legit 2nd pairing D-man? Give your head a shake. And if that doesn't work, give it a spin as well.

wprager wrote:I looked at the stats of 2-nd pairing D-men from several teams.  I sorted based on  TOI/Game making the assumption that the 3rd/4th guys were the likely 2nd pairing.  It's not perfect but it's something.  This is what I've got (games goals/assists/points +/-):

Bston:
Seidenberg - 34  0/7/7     -2
Miller          - 43  3/10/13  +6

Wings:
Green         - 44 2/17/19   -6
Ericsson     - 45 1/7/8       +6

Panthers:
Kulikov        - 42  1/7/8     +11
Mitchell        - 46  1/6/7     -2

And now compare these to Ceci  - 44 5/10/15  -2

Don't forget that Ottawa is a -17 (goal differential) team; Detroit is -4, Boston is +15, Florida is +30!  

How is Ceci *not* a legit 2nd pairing D-man?  Give your head a shake.  And if that doesn't work, give it a spin as well.

We have the 2nd worst defense in the NHL (based on goals against). More importantly we have the worst PK unit, BY FAR.
You won't see Ceci's goals against on the PK in those stats.

wprager wrote:I looked at the stats of 2-nd pairing D-men from several teams.  I sorted based on  TOI/Game making the assumption that the 3rd/4th guys were the likely 2nd pairing.  It's not perfect but it's something.  This is what I've got (games goals/assists/points +/-):

Bston:
Seidenberg - 34  0/7/7     -2
Miller          - 43  3/10/13  +6

Wings:
Green         - 44 2/17/19   -6
Ericsson     - 45 1/7/8       +6

Panthers:
Kulikov        - 42  1/7/8     +11
Mitchell        - 46  1/6/7     -2

And now compare these to Ceci  - 44 5/10/15  -2

Don't forget that Ottawa is a -17 (goal differential) team; Detroit is -4, Boston is +15, Florida is +30!  

How is Ceci *not* a legit 2nd pairing D-man?  Give your head a shake.  And if that doesn't work, give it a spin as well.

Wow, such detailed analysis.  Anyway, I actually watch the games and can see that Ceci is having a tough time out there.  

So you can look at his stat line from the game against the Pens and say, "wow, 2 points, a +1, great game!"  But what that doesn't tell you is the the sheer misery that he caused in his own end, which is what some of the advanced stat line actually does tell you.  

I don't really want to argue about Ceci.  I'd keep him, as I think he'll continue to develop.  I think we'd be a better team, though, with a legit 2nd defensive pairing that doesn't include him.

LeCaptain wrote:

Ev wrote:

Flo The Action wrote:

Ev wrote:White won't be rushed. He'll be ready. He's better than zibanejad right now, most likely

Ya. Right. Sounds awfully similar to when everyone was saying Paul was ready to jump to the NHL. Yet he's doing average in Bingo. I'd say you let him take his game through the different levels instead of rushing yet another prospect.

just because people would say he was "rushed" doesn't mean he was rushed. You don't understand how goof White is right now and how polished he is. That would be like saying the Wings rushed Larkin.

As long as he doesn't go to Bingo. That place is a dump right now.

I disagree. Bingo might be very different next year. You add white, Chabot, Perron, gagné possibly England and Wilkstrand and you have a very different make-up of the team. I've said it before, this year is a transition year for bingo. You look at some of the guys on the team that were brought in and that aren't close to being a prospect and you see it's all stop gap. In my opinion there is no way you should be starting white on the sens roster. Establish himself in bingo first. He might have looked good in a prospect camp but it's a huge difference day in day out in the NHL. If he starts slumping how does that affect him again young age? Maturity is a huge factor in growing a prospect and I'm a huge believer in time. The stressors aren't close to the same between bingo and the big stage.

I haven't been this frustrated at management/ownership for a long long time, if ever. We have a great core with a spectacular elite defenseman and this is likely as good as it's going to get but because of bad context they've handcuffed themselves in making moves. This is pathetic. Sometimes, secretly, late late at night, in the cover of darkness, I wishMelnyk would of failed the the transplant.
New ownership.

Flo The Action wrote:I haven't been this frustrated at management/ownership for a long long time, if ever. We have a great core with a spectacular elite defenseman and this is likely as good as it's going to get but because of bad context they've handcuffed themselves in making moves. This is pathetic. Sometimes, secretly, late late at night,  in the cover of darkness, I wishMelnyk would of failed the the transplant.
New ownership.

I don't see how a new owner is gonna help develop more defensemen..
Are the Predators /Ducks paying their Defensemen billions of $$ or something?

LeCaptain wrote:

wprager wrote:I looked at the stats of 2-nd pairing D-men from several teams.  I sorted based on  TOI/Game making the assumption that the 3rd/4th guys were the likely 2nd pairing.  It's not perfect but it's something.  This is what I've got (games goals/assists/points +/-):

Bston:
Seidenberg - 34  0/7/7     -2
Miller          - 43  3/10/13  +6

Wings:
Green         - 44 2/17/19   -6
Ericsson     - 45 1/7/8       +6

Panthers:
Kulikov        - 42  1/7/8     +11
Mitchell        - 46  1/6/7     -2

And now compare these to Ceci  - 44 5/10/15  -2

Don't forget that Ottawa is a -17 (goal differential) team; Detroit is -4, Boston is +15, Florida is +30!  

How is Ceci *not* a legit 2nd pairing D-man?  Give your head a shake.  And if that doesn't work, give it a spin as well.

We have the 2nd worst defense in the NHL (based on goals against). More importantly we have the worst PK unit, BY FAR.
You won't see Ceci's goals against on the PK in those stats.

Ceci is not on the 1st PK unit. That would be Cowen/Boro.

Flo The Action wrote:

LeCaptain wrote:

Ev wrote:

Flo The Action wrote:

Ev wrote:White won't be rushed. He'll be ready. He's better than zibanejad right now, most likely

Ya. Right. Sounds awfully similar to when everyone was saying Paul was ready to jump to the NHL. Yet he's doing average in Bingo. I'd say you let him take his game through the different levels instead of rushing yet another prospect.

just because people would say he was "rushed" doesn't mean he was rushed. You don't understand how goof White is right now and how polished he is. That would be like saying the Wings rushed Larkin.

As long as he doesn't go to Bingo. That place is a dump right now.

I disagree. Bingo might be very different next year. You add white, Chabot, Perron, gagné  possibly England and Wilkstrand and you have a very different make-up of the team. I've said it before, this year is a transition year for bingo. You look at some of the guys on the team that were brought in and that aren't close to being a prospect and you see it's all stop gap. In my opinion there is no way you should be starting white on the sens roster. Establish himself in bingo first. He might have looked good in a prospect camp but it's a huge difference day in day out in the NHL. If he starts slumping how does that affect him again young age? Maturity is a huge factor in growing a prospect and I'm a huge believer in time. The stressors aren't close to the same between bingo and the big stage.

Chabot is ineligible.

as for slumps, every rookie and sophomore has those so I don't see the issue.

I personally don't see a scenario where, if White is signed, he isn't on the Sens.

He's dominating NCAA at a level seen by the very good players to come out of that league. Guys like him never need much AHL time if any at all.

That's my concern as well. Ceci was supposed to be another offensive weapon, I'm not really in the camp that believes Chabot is the answer and he'll be the next great offensive talent. His value is high right now, I'd move him for a legit top 4 dman (my pick is Edler, obviously you add to it but that would be the base).

If you can have this as your top 4:

Methot-Karlsson
Edler-Ceci

I think you're in good shape. And then return Boro to the bottom pair with Wideman. That's a solid balance.

tim1_2 wrote:

wprager wrote:I looked at the stats of 2-nd pairing D-men from several teams.  I sorted based on  TOI/Game making the assumption that the 3rd/4th guys were the likely 2nd pairing.  It's not perfect but it's something.  This is what I've got (games goals/assists/points +/-):

Bston:
Seidenberg - 34  0/7/7     -2
Miller          - 43  3/10/13  +6

Wings:
Green         - 44 2/17/19   -6
Ericsson     - 45 1/7/8       +6

Panthers:
Kulikov        - 42  1/7/8     +11
Mitchell        - 46  1/6/7     -2

And now compare these to Ceci  - 44 5/10/15  -2

Don't forget that Ottawa is a -17 (goal differential) team; Detroit is -4, Boston is +15, Florida is +30!  

How is Ceci *not* a legit 2nd pairing D-man?  Give your head a shake.  And if that doesn't work, give it a spin as well.

Wow, such detailed analysis.  Anyway, I actually watch the games and can see that Ceci is having a tough time out there.  

So you can look at his stat line from the game against the Pens and say, "wow, 2 points, a +1, great game!"  But what that doesn't tell you is the the sheer misery that he caused in his own end, which is what some of the advanced stat line actually does tell you.  

I don't really want to argue about Ceci.  I'd keep him, as I think he'll continue to develop.  I think we'd be a better team, though, with a legit 2nd defensive pairing that doesn't include him.

Nobody is saying he's not having a tough time out there. Everyone on this team is, even Karlsson. No one is saying that Ceci is just like Lidstrom in his first few seasons. He will continue to develop and get better, and so will the team when they get some help on the left side. But right now Ceci is as legit a 2nd pairing D-man as they come. This is the same discussion we had back when Fisher was not good enough at center to be a 2LC, yet Mendes surveyed the other 2nd line centers in the league (much more detailed analysis than I just did here) and clearly demonstrated that, as 2LCs go, Fisher was bang-on legit. I still say that Fisher was better suited to the wing, and I will continue to say that to the day I die.