What's Next For The Senators?

With the final game of the season tomorrow, the Ottawa Senators head off into unfamiliar territory.

Making the playoffs has become a habit for the team and their fans, and not seeing the Senators in the hunt for Stanley is understandably a shock to the system for the faithful.

There's plenty of talk already about next year though, with Cory Clouston's signing and speculation about what might happen between now and next October.

The Citizen's staff article April 8 gives a flavour of the feelings fans might have about the future:

Confident Sens ink Clouston, look to next year

The Ottawa Citizen (Staff) April 8, 2009

After a season in which everything fell apart so early, the Ottawa Senators aren’t afraid of getting ahead of themselves by talking about the next one.

Now that coach Cory Clouston has been given a two-year contract extension, the focus has already shifted to the 2009-10 season, still six months away.

Clouston, owner Eugene Melnyk and general manager Bryan Murray are already boldly predicting big things for next season, based in large part on the success the team has had since Clouston replaced Craig Hartsburg on Feb. 2.

Murray suggested that Clouston had brought “accountability” to the dressing room since being promoted from Binghamton of the American Hockey League, but you’ll also recall that was also the same message that accompanied the hiring of Hartsburg last June.

So far, Clouston’s numbers have been impressive. The Senators, who close out their disappointing season at home game against the New Jersey Devils Thursday and in Toronto against the Maple Leafs Saturday, have a record of 19-10-3 with Clouston. They were 17-24-7 with Hartsburg as coach.

“I look at the dedication our players have given in the last (32) games,” Clouston said. “They deserve credit. They’re the ones working hard, battling every night, and they’re the ones who were under scrutiny more than anyone, really.

“The pressure they felt and a lot of the negative comments and things that have been written about these guys, to me, is not true. I think the true colours of this team have shown in the last (32) games and I think the future is bright.”

While it can be argued that the Senators only found the winning path once their chances of making the playoffs had realistically disappeared, Melnyk and Murray are confident the spark Clouston provided will extend into the summer and carry over into the fall.

Melnyk mentioned how the team had been “reinvigorated.” Captain Daniel Alfredsson says Clouston’s arrival was “refreshing for us.”

Murray went so far as to say the Senators are “a contender now,” but because they slipped so far in the standings so early, they won’t be able to prove it until the 2009-10 season.

“We didn’t play early on the way we had to play, obviously,” Murray said. “We’re not far away. I think we’ve addressed the coach and the goaltending. (The club acquired Pascal Leclaire from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Antoine Vermette at the trade deadline.) I think our defence is considerably better than it was early on.

We might need one more person there, going forward, and a top-six forward somewhere down the road for us. Even with what we have right now, we’re a contending hockey club.”

That defenceman Murray is referring to may well be Erik Karlsson, the Swedish star who was club’s first-round draft pick last summer. Karlsson, who was named the top defenceman at the world junior championship, is expected to arrive in Ottawa Thursday.

Murray will begin talking contract with him as soon as possible. The potential stumbling blocks are whether Karlsson would agree to a two-way contract and if he would accept beginning his North American career in the AHL if it’s deemed he’s not ready for the NHL following training camp.

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In his morning recap of last night's game, The Citizen's Ken Warren added this perspective as a footnote:

The Senators (36-35-10) now close out the season Saturday in Toronto against the Maple Leafs in a game where pretty much the only thing at stake is pride.

At the very least, the Senators sent their fans into the summer with some late entertainment value in a contest that was dreadfully dull for the longest time.

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So where do they go from here?

What is the true, and actual value--as opposed to the potential--of this team?

How do they realistically stack up against their opponents going forward?

What are the missing pieces, if any?

What does management, and what do the players, need to do to make improvements in the off-season, and next season?

The members of the GM Hockey Forum have shown they are not afraid to ask the tough questions, have the vigourous discussions, and propose the most provocative answers.

Looking forward to everyone's response.

Hmmm....hope we get some of our star posters jumping in on this one...

I think with our goaltending hopefully solidified, Murray will move Auld. I think he'll wait until the eve of the season to make sure that Leclaire will be ready to handle the load. Shouldn't be a problem as his rehab is progressing nicely. Murray will have the luxury of drafting someone who isn't necessarily ready right now and will be in a position add a nice player (although not as nice as I'd like).

We're also in good shape with Clouston coming in and turning this team around, proving alot of people wrong (myself included) and earning his new deal. Hopefully that stability will continue.

I still believe that we are too top heavy salary wise. I would like to see one of the larger contracts jettisoned so we can add to our defensive core. Having to rely on patching our defense with the likes of Picard, Bell and Schubert is a far cry from the days when we'd ice the best top 6 in the league bar none. Freeing money from the forward ranks may also have to happen if the pundits are right and the cap plummets after next season. Do it now, because the teams that are way over when it drops are going to lose serious talent for way less than it's worth.

I'd like to see Murray add a goaltender for Bingo. Jeff Glass is proving to that he's not even good enough to be an AHL goaltender and Mitch O'Keefe is still largely unproven. I think our goaltending tandem in Ottawa may be Leclaire and Elliott next season so it's esssential that Bingo finds someone to replace Elliott's spot there.

Hem...as always, well-thought out analysis...

Watching the 'turnarounds' (a favourite term of hockey writers, and beleagured owners LOL) of teams this year--namely, St Louis, Anaheim and Nashville...which have resulted in playoff contention after most had written them off, I have a slightly different view of the Sens' 'turnaround'.

Let's be brutally honest. Bryan Murray made two disastrous coaching choices in a row. His abject failure to address the necessary personnel improvements after the loss to the Ducks put Ottawa into a downward spiral.

The 'spin' on the choice of Cory Clouston, first as coach in Binghamton, and then as choice in Ottawa, is a very clever piece of propaganda designed to deflect criticism from the front office. This is a tribute to Bryan's superb skills as a battle hardened NHL executive.

Let me be perfectly clear. I think Clouston is an EXCELLENT coach. He may one day become one of the best in the league.

But Bryan and Tim Murray put themselves up their eyeballs in doo-doo, and Cory was the rope that allowed them to pull themselves out.

Now that Roy Mlakar may be moving on to spend more time with his family, the word is that BM may move upstairs with Tim taking over.

Cory has done wonders with this team, no question about it.

Clouston's abilities are analogous to those of a Ken Hitchc0ck in Columbus. Look at the Jackets' roster and you ask yourself how Hitch has gotten them this far. Look at the Sens' roster--with all of its deficiencies--and you can't help but truly admire Clouston's work.

The reality is that the Senators are exactly what their record shows. Slightly better than a .500 team.

Next year we can expect the competition will have improved.

Yes, the players rave about Cory, and they've played better when it was clear the playoffs were out of reach.

How will they do next year? Looking coldly and objectively at the team, IMHO they will be fighting for a playoff spot.

As they are, the Senators are NOT--Bryan Murray's hype notwithstanding--a contender. They're a middling team.

They have, like Edmonton and a number of other clubs, some of the pieces. But the picture is not complete...and there's a lot of work to do.

Pascal Leclaire is a very good building block. Alex Auld and Brian Elliott are quality 1a/2 goalies.

IF Murray can obtain another Top 4 defenseman...and IF he can obtain a true Top 6 forward...their chances may be better.

Maybe one or more of their prospects will surprise...but the Sens haven't migrated enough young talent to the front line yet, and this has hurt them over the last two seasons.

Clouston, thankfully, has begun to reverse this trend. Foligno, Shannon, Winchester, Regin, Zubov, Bass...these kids NEED to play to get better.

If you have to move a veteran to make room for them...do it.

I also believe that it will be almost impossible to trade Heatley or Spezza...assuming that trading them is a good decision, for which there has been no conclusive argument to date.

Mike Fisher is, in my estimation, still tradeable, assuming he does not try to veto a move...however, I'm not sure what the Sens could get for him. Should he be traded? Fisher's a checking center...is he really worth $4MM?

Something to consider in light of the presumptive cap 'situation'...which at this point, is a supposition being propagated by the journos.

How you make cap room, if/when cap room is important, is a good question.

One of very positive things about Clouston is that he MAKES the EXISTING assets perform to their maximum. So MAYBE you don't have to move players.

But...there are a LOT of 'ifs' here.

What I've outlined above is not a popular view--and not only do I expect it will be challenged, but I hope it is.

I'd like to see the Sens do well...it's great to have quality NHL hockey in Ottawa for a number of reasons.

Dreaming about a 'return to glory' is all well and good, and soothes the pain somewhat.

But then, I don't think being a dreamer makes a team perform.

And my impression of Clouston is that he's not a dreamer.

He makes his teams work hard, and play honest hockey. To me, that's reason enough to cheer. The rest, well, we'll see...

So...my two cents...not an expert opinion...by any means.

Hoping everybody pitches in with their views...after all, member for member, this is the BEST hockey forum on the web.

Cheers!

There is a very important positive going into next year: CONfidence of the players in themselves, and confidence of the players in the coaching staff. A good young coach that everybody already knows and they know what to expect. Hartsburg didnt have enough time to know the players, and not a long training camp either.

I think moving big pieces would be a huge mistake, for the dressing room. I also think leadership is not an issue at all, after watching a few videos on the Sens website, I think alfie and Philips are tremendous in that department.

If BM wants to add a N1 defenseman, I hope he can move 2 or 3 $1Million contracts (for instance, Shubert, Bell and Neil), 1 or two 3-4 million contracts (i.e.Comrie and Jason Smith). A N1d/Kuba, Volchie/Philips and Campoli/Lee would be perfect, with Picard at N7. In other words, we replace Bell with a N1Defenseman from our current roster. Not bad.

Personnally I don't want him to sign any more top 6 forwards on the team. I think it would just be a cap eater and I like Peter Regin. Foligno and Shannon are becoming threats, and I think it sparks the 2 lazy a$$es to see them compete. I had a feeling at the beginning of the season that everybody was waiting for someone to score that 1st goal that would wake them all, and rarely happened. Shannon and FOligno have brought that kind of "Let's go" feeling IMO.
I hope Jim OBrien can fill Regin's spot in Bingo.Zubov will also try to earn a spot. I like this system, it hasn't happened on this team since Foligno joined, and before that there was nothing coming from the farm for several years. Comrie can pack the bags. His girlfriend can stay.

Some of the pieces are in place for sure. If the Sens are to turn it around next year, they'll have to buy a 1-year D-man who can play at a Kuba-like level, perhaps a little higher and with a little more pedigree - like a Zubov (who I realize is near impossible for us to get), but someone like that. Schneider is a perfect example of a guy that can play the position well and still has some PP prowess.

In terms of the top 6 player - it's possible, but at some point we're gonna need some cheap 2nd liners to be successful. I have zero idea if Zubov can step into a top 6 role, but I do think he can step into a top 9 for sure. Especially with Clouston there to help him.

As for Regin, I have strong hopes for him as well - again, especially under Clouston. The big hope for me personally is that we can re-unite the B-Sens line in Ottawa next year - probably minus Z.Smith, but pretty close. If we can put out Zubov - Regin - Shannon as a 3rd line, we're starting to get somewhere. I realize the risk of putting two rookies and a guy finally getting comfortable in the NHL, but at the same time, if not now, when?

Let's face it, next year is a year where we can hope for the playoffs - and there's little reason to think we won't be battling for a spot, but at the same time, we're not winning the Cup next year, barring a miracle, so we're gonna need to break in these young guys. The transition period while we wait for Karlsson and hopefully Wiercioch will be tough at times, but we can manage. I'm not sure we get a D-man like J-Bo, but a veteran with some skill to play with Kuba on the first pairing would be nice.

The goaltending should be good. Leclaire and Elliott/Auld is a nice tandem. Assuming Leclaire can a)get healthy and b)get his game going, the Sens could look like they did with Emery in 06/07. Tough to play against, with unspectacular, but solid D and a big dropoff in talent from the top 3.

Next year HAS to be the year the Big 3 are split up once and for all. I would strongly suggest you replace Shannon with Heatley on Fisher's line - and then figure out someone for the LW with Spezza and Alfredsson. If that has to come from free agency, so be it, but putting a guy like Winchester there might be something to consider. Maybe Comrie, but raise your hand if you're sold on him right now.

We can hope to finish 7th or 8th next year, then maybe a little higher the year after, then hopefully we can start making some headway the year after when Karlsson and Wiercioch are about ready to start contributing in a big way.

Or...I've got it all wrong and Clouston will have them humming. It's a tough one to crystal ball for sure.

EXCELLENT COMMENTS!!!!

...let's hear more...this is getting REALLY interesting....

:KKK: :KKK: :KKK:

Pierre LeBrun of ESPN/Hockey Night in Canada 'Hot Stove' offers his perspective:

Ottawa Senators
The offseason began with the signing of rookie coach Corey Clouston to a two-year extension. Good move. The team has played its best hockey in two seasons under his tutelage.

Mind you, there was nothing on the line from the moment he took over. Late-season wins for non-playoff teams are sometimes dangerously overrated. So we'll see what we get next season when W's and L's matter.

Hopefully by then, his GM, Bryan Murray, will have added a defenseman and another top-six forward. Those are his goals, although meeting them depends on Swedish prospect blueliner Erik Karlsson and whether he decides to make the jump from overseas.

Will Jason Spezza be around? His no-trade clause kicks in July 1. The problem with trading your No. 1 center is how you replace him when he's gone. That's not so say it's impossible with free agency, but it just means it's a huge move that needs a few levels of planning. We think Spezza stays put.

A healthy Pascal Leclaire will begin his Sens career in goal in the fall, and that's a big bonus right there. The Sens have been plagued by goalie problems their entire history, but it looks as if they've finally found their masked man.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4059993&name=lebrun_pierre

Scott Cullen's off-season game plan for the Sens:

http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=277695

shabbs wrote:Scott Cullen's off-season game plan for the Sens:

[url=http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=277695

http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=277695[/quote[/url]]

Well thought out, as is most of Cullen's stuff.

shabbs wrote:Scott Cullen's off-season game plan for the Sens:

http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=277695

Really well written article. It's worth reading for Sens fans.

I don't understand his ratings poitns for the players. Are they explained anywhere?

wprager wrote:I don't understand his ratings poitns for the players. Are they explained anywhere?

All I could find was:

Player rankings are based on statistical production and are intended to value the impact a player has on the game.

wprager wrote:I don't understand his ratings poitns for the players. Are they explained anywhere?

From what I understand from the point system, it's just a simple equation with several variables that include current production, previous production, and several key statistical categories.

PKC wrote:

wprager wrote:I don't understand his ratings poitns for the players. Are they explained anywhere?

From what I understand from the point system, it's just a simple equation with several variables that include current production, previous production, and several key statistical categories.

Then how are Fisher's numbers so high? Is "Hot Celebrity Girlfriend" part of the formula?