wprager wrote:
True, we don't have 2-3 years' worth of top 5 picks but consider this:
Cowen was projected top-five, if not top-three before he got hurt. This year we could very well get a top-three pick. Some careful deadline trading should give us a couple of 2-3 round picks, and assuming we don't do much better (in the W column) next year, we could parlay our own 1st rounder (which should be top-ten) and the other picks for a top-five. There's your 2-3 years' worth of top 5 picks.
Karlsson was drafted at #15 but he's still a top-end talent, and he's already contributing while learning on the job (he did not spend a full year in the AHL, remember). Rundblad is tearing it up in the SEL. I still have not given up on Wiercioch but I expect him to have another full season in Bingo next year, but to do much better on his second time around. Butler is playing like a top-six guy right now. Smith is an excellent third liner and a pretty exciting player to watch.
Goalie prospects are nearly impossible to gauge but by all accounts Lehner is an elite-level prospect and after a full year in the AHL he should be ready for at least tandem with a steady veteran.
So that's my rebuild plan. Top-five draft picks this year and the next, both used to acquire top-end forwards. Next year we start to regain excitement with removal of players like Kovalev, Kuba, Ruutu, Leclaire (and possibly others). They would be replaced by the likes of Butler, Cowen/Rundblad, O'Brien and a goalie (could be Nabokov on a 3 year deal, no NTC in the third year). There are other forwards who could make waves at camp in Greening, Condra, Caporusso, the Swedes -- but I don't expect them to make the team except as call-ups.
The following year Lehner is the backup or tandem from day one. Karlsson, Cowen and Rundblad on the back-end, at least one of the top-five forwards playing alongside the likes of Spezza, Michalek, Fisher, Foligno, Butler, Regin. For a team in a re-build year, that's not a bad top-six. The year after that we start making some hay.
20013-14 we should be contenders.
A great post.
Cowen was roundly looked at as a top 5 pick before his injury and Karlsson would be if GMs knew what they know now. Rundblad's oozing high end potential, so is Lehner - and by some accounts the Sens have a couple of serious gems in the pipeline - like Silfverberg, who people keep pimping who see him play (and Sorenson mind you).