Elliott or Leclaire - Who's Number 1?

rooneypoo wrote:

wprager wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:

wprager wrote:Goalies about to become UFA go for 4th round picks or similar. No need to give up Wiercioch.

Uh...no chance.

Source?

Seriously, why do you say no chance? Come up with a counter example -- a recent one -- where a UFA goalie fetched a better return than Wiercioch -- who is a 7.5, I believe.

When was the last time a real NHL goalie was traded at the deadline? I can't even think of an example from recent history.

Halak isn't a comparable at all -- RFA without a contract, trade made during the off-season, etc., etc. Huet to WAS is the closest thing. Biron to PHI, too, I guess. Neither of those guys is anywhere near the goalie Vokoun is.

I have to think trading a guy like Vokoun -- given that he's healthy and playing like he has over the last few years -- would bring in a return akin to Hossa or Kovalchuk. Maybe a tad less.

Timing is everything. You pay more for a guy when he adds substantially to your team for a cup run.

I usually agree with you, but this is waaaay off base.

PKC wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

wprager wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:

wprager wrote:Goalies about to become UFA go for 4th round picks or similar. No need to give up Wiercioch.

Uh...no chance.

Source?

Seriously, why do you say no chance? Come up with a counter example -- a recent one -- where a UFA goalie fetched a better return than Wiercioch -- who is a 7.5, I believe.

When was the last time a real NHL goalie was traded at the deadline? I can't even think of an example from recent history.

Halak isn't a comparable at all -- RFA without a contract, trade made during the off-season, etc., etc. Huet to WAS is the closest thing. Biron to PHI, too, I guess. Neither of those guys is anywhere near the goalie Vokoun is.

I have to think trading a guy like Vokoun -- given that he's healthy and playing like he has over the last few years -- would bring in a return akin to Hossa or Kovalchuk. Maybe a tad less.

Timing is everything. You pay more for a guy when he adds substantially to your team for a cup run.

I usually agree with you, but this is waaaay off base.

Time will tell, I guess. We don't have anything to go on -- and, no, FA and off-season deals don't count. A real, coveted #1 goalie hasn't been traded at the deadline since the lockout, at least as far as I remember.

I think a real goalie, like a real forward or real defencemen, would bring in a substantial return at the deadline. Anywhere between what, say, Guerin or Tkachuk or Campbell brought in, up to what, say, Hossa or Kovalchuk brought in.

Even Biron and Huet brought in 2nd rounders at the deadline. If you ask me, Vokoun is 1st+ or high prospect territory for sure, if he stays healthy and plays like he has the last few years.

wprager wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:

wprager wrote:Goalies about to become UFA go for 4th round picks or similar. No need to give up Wiercioch.

Uh...no chance.

Source?

Seriously, why do you say no chance? Come up with a counter example -- a recent one -- where a UFA goalie fetched a better return than Wiercioch -- who is a 7.5, I believe.

When was the last time there was one of the 10 best goalie in the league available to the highest bidder - with teams like Ottawa, Philly, maybe Montreal, SJ (I think they're about to get rudely awakened) needing goaltending - bad.

I think this is what's gonna happen around...January:

To Philadelphia:
Tomas Vokoun (with an extension of 5 X 4)

To Florida:
Jeff Carter

If not, Vokoun will garner a 1st round pick and a top 6 forward or top 4 D prospect IMO.

SpezDispenser wrote:

wprager wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:

wprager wrote:Goalies about to become UFA go for 4th round picks or similar. No need to give up Wiercioch.

Uh...no chance.

Source?

Seriously, why do you say no chance? Come up with a counter example -- a recent one -- where a UFA goalie fetched a better return than Wiercioch -- who is a 7.5, I believe.

When was the last time there was one of the 10 best goalie in the league available to the highest bidder - with teams like Ottawa, Philly, maybe Montreal, SJ (I think they're about to get rudely awakened) needing goaltending - bad.

I think this is what's gonna happen around...January:

To Philadelphia:
Tomas Vokoun (with an extension of 5 X 4)

To Florida:
Jeff Carter

If not, Vokoun will garner a 1st round pick and a top 6 forward or top 4 D prospect IMO.

You've lost your damn mind if you think the Flyers are gonna trade Jeff Carter at the deadline to the Florida Panthers for Vokoun, even with an extension.

Lehner is filling out paperwork, will be in Bingo tomorrow.

PKC wrote:
You've lost your damn mind if you think the Flyers are gonna trade Jeff Carter at the deadline to the Florida Panthers for Vokoun, even with an extension.

Why? It's perfect, the Flyers get one of the best in the business, re-unite him with Timonen and Hartnell, have the team to win a Cup for sure.

Carter is a nice piece, but he's really expendable IMO. Giroux is coming and coming up big time, VanRiemsdyke is coming hard as well. Trading Carter is the price of winning. Watch how close this is to happening and how many rumours heat up soon.

rooneypoo wrote:

Time will tell, I guess. We don't have anything to go on -- and, no, FA and off-season deals don't count. A real, coveted #1 goalie hasn't been traded at the deadline since the lockout, at least as far as I remember.

I think a real goalie, like a real forward or real defencemen, would bring in a substantial return at the deadline. Anywhere between what, say, Guerin or Tkachuk or Campbell brought in, up to what, say, Hossa or Kovalchuk brought in.

Even Biron and Huet brought in 2nd rounders at the deadline. If you ask me, Vokoun is 1st+ or high prospect territory for sure, if he stays healthy and plays like he has the last few years.

I know hes no Vokoun, but Giguere was traded last year for Vesa Toskala and Jason Blake.

SpezDispenser wrote:

PKC wrote:
You've lost your damn mind if you think the Flyers are gonna trade Jeff Carter at the deadline to the Florida Panthers for Vokoun, even with an extension.

Why? It's perfect, the Flyers get one of the best in the business, re-unite him with Timonen and Hartnell, have the team to win a Cup for sure.

Carter is a nice piece, but he's really expendable IMO. Giroux is coming and coming up big time, VanRiemsdyke is coming hard as well. Trading Carter is the price of winning. Watch how close this is to happening and how many rumours heat up soon.

Allow me a moment to show you some mathematics to explain why you don't trade Carter for Vokoun:

The best variable to gauge how a goaltender would improve your position in most cases is to look at sv%.

Vokoun's sv% was .929 on 2081 shots. Leighton's sv% was .905 on 899. Applying Vokoun's sv% to the number of shots Leighton faced would yield 835 saves to Leighton's 814. A difference of 21 goals. Vokoun had exactly twice the amount of starts that Leighton had. So over an entire season, that's a net contribution of 42 goals to the defense.

The question is: is Jeff Carter closer to the 46 goal, 38 assist season he had two years ago or the 33 goal, 28 assist season he had last year?

Conventional wisdom puts him somewhere right in the middle, 40 goals, 35 assists. That's a net contribution of 57 goals (40 + [35*0.5]) to the offense.

So you've got one guy impacting your roster (and these numbers are all theoretical since performances fluctuate from season to season) by 57 goals and the other impacting by 42 goals.

There's a reason big time goal scorers go for a king's ransom while the trend for paying for goaltenders is heading in the opposite direction, 1) market availability for elite goaltenders is limited and 2) teams are starting to realize that shaving a few dollars off of the goaltending position and re-investing it into impacting your net offensive contribution is worth more in the long run.

That's why teams with average goaltending are all of a sudden winning the Cup while teams with massive cap hits at the position are either watching from the stands or getting eliminated in the first two rounds.

Just look at the conference finals last year on both sides: San Jose was the only team with a goalie with a cap hit higher than $860,000.

And I imagine that the numbers for the previous year will also show a big discrepancy between what teams in the final four are spending on their starting goaltenders.

There's a ton of other variables though. There's when the goalie lets up the goals - as in, are they back-breaking goals at inopportune times, does Vokoun have the potential to be higher than .929 on a team with Pronger, Timonen, Coburn, etc.? Is Carter really that good that he can come close to a 50 goal season again? Is there a built in feeling of despair in the Flyers organization because of their tending?

If I were them, I would do it. Some teams don't need the goaltending, some do. This is a team that does IMO.

Flyers fans HATE Jeff Carter. Most of them want him gone, and soon.

SpezDispenser wrote:There's a ton of other variables though. There's when the goalie lets up the goals - as in, are they back-breaking goals at inopportune times, does Vokoun have the potential to be higher than .929 on a team with Pronger, Timonen, Coburn, etc.? Is Carter really that good that he can come close to a 50 goal season again? Is there a built in feeling of despair in the Flyers organization because of their tending?

If I were them, I would do it. Some teams don't need the goaltending, some do. This is a team that does IMO.

There are other variables and my formula is quite inexact, but there is a trend with mathematics infiltrating the sports world. It started with sabermetrics among other formulaic ratings and it's now starting to creep into hockey too. Teams are starting to look at net contributions rather than just saying "we need to upgrade this position."

There's a reason defensemen are the highest paid per person in the league, their contributions to the game on both ends is the biggest component of mathematical ratings for teams. As in, a defensemen who can score and defend is far more invaluable than a goaltender who's in the top 5 of goalie stats. And the star forward who can rack up the points on offense and contribute defensively would be right behind that elite defender.

For instance, a guy like Shea Weber is worth more than a guy like Daniel Alfredsson who's worth more than a guy like Anti Niemi. I don't know what the exact formula they're using is but the guy who does the TSN rankings isn't far off it.

If Florida has no plans on resigning Vokoun and no hope for the playoffs they'll try and get maximum value for him.

If Vokoun thinks he'll get a new contract similar to his contract he'll have to follow Nabby to the KHL.

PKC wrote:
There are other variables and my formula is quite inexact, but there is a trend with mathematics infiltrating the sports world. It started with sabermetrics among other formulaic ratings and it's now starting to creep into hockey too. Teams are starting to look at net contributions rather than just saying "we need to upgrade this position."

There's a reason defensemen are the highest paid per person in the league, their contributions to the game on both ends is the biggest component of mathematical ratings for teams. As in, a defensemen who can score and defend is far more invaluable than a goaltender who's in the top 5 of goalie stats. And the star forward who can rack up the points on offense and contribute defensively would be right behind that elite defender.

For instance, a guy like Shea Weber is worth more than a guy like Daniel Alfredsson who's worth more than a guy like Anti Niemi. I don't know what the exact formula they're using is but the guy who does the TSN rankings isn't far off it.

I think I can agree with this, but if there was ever a team that needed that insulation of a top-tiered netminder, it's the Flyers (and Sens). However, the 'Ken Holland' approach is gaining steam in a big, big way, so there might be some relevance to it. We'll see... I still think this is happening personally, but I hope not because it makes the Flyers killer and it makes the Panthers quite good down the road.

SpezDispenser wrote:

PKC wrote:
There are other variables and my formula is quite inexact, but there is a trend with mathematics infiltrating the sports world. It started with sabermetrics among other formulaic ratings and it's now starting to creep into hockey too. Teams are starting to look at net contributions rather than just saying "we need to upgrade this position."

There's a reason defensemen are the highest paid per person in the league, their contributions to the game on both ends is the biggest component of mathematical ratings for teams. As in, a defensemen who can score and defend is far more invaluable than a goaltender who's in the top 5 of goalie stats. And the star forward who can rack up the points on offense and contribute defensively would be right behind that elite defender.

For instance, a guy like Shea Weber is worth more than a guy like Daniel Alfredsson who's worth more than a guy like Anti Niemi. I don't know what the exact formula they're using is but the guy who does the TSN rankings isn't far off it.

I think I can agree with this, but if there was ever a team that needed that insulation of a top-tiered netminder, it's the Flyers (and Sens). However, the 'Ken Holland' approach is gaining steam in a big, big way, so there might be some relevance to it. We'll see... I still think this is happening personally, but I hope not because it makes the Flyers killer and it makes the Panthers quite good down the road.

Another point to be made about the Flyers is the availability of a guy like Nabokov in the offseason. If they are going to offer a 5 x 4 to Vokoun like you seem to think they should, why wouldn't they do the same deal for Nabokov who's only a year older and keep Jeff Carter in the process or flip him for another valuable addition.

^ No cap room this summer. In fact, negative cap room that made them dump Gagne for a bag of pucks (literally). One of the dumbest trades I can remember. No one in the West would take him, really?

Amnesia021 wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

Time will tell, I guess. We don't have anything to go on -- and, no, FA and off-season deals don't count. A real, coveted #1 goalie hasn't been traded at the deadline since the lockout, at least as far as I remember.

I think a real goalie, like a real forward or real defencemen, would bring in a substantial return at the deadline. Anywhere between what, say, Guerin or Tkachuk or Campbell brought in, up to what, say, Hossa or Kovalchuk brought in.

Even Biron and Huet brought in 2nd rounders at the deadline. If you ask me, Vokoun is 1st+ or high prospect territory for sure, if he stays healthy and plays like he has the last few years.

I know hes no Vokoun, but Giguere was traded last year for Vesa Toskala and Jason Blake.

Blake was almost a salary dump; Toskala lets in goals from nearly 200' away; and Giguere is a Cup Winning goalie.

What's Vokoun won. Seriously. Remember how you were all salivating at the prospect of getting Bouwmeester to come here, how he was a great player on a horrible team.

And let's not forget that Vokoun played for years in the defense-first-second-and-third Preds organization, and the last couple of years in the SouthLeast.

wprager wrote:
Blake was almost a salary dump; Toskala lets in goals from nearly 200' away; and Giguere is a Cup Winning goalie.

What's Vokoun won. Seriously. Remember how you were all salivating at the prospect of getting Bouwmeester to come here, how he was a great player on a horrible team.

And let's not forget that Vokoun played for years in the defense-first-second-and-third Preds organization, and the last couple of years in the SouthLeast.

Giguere has also slid the last few years and got replaced by Hiller for less.

I'd be scared to give Vokoun a few million + NMC when he has 5 NHL playoff games experience. Looking at the Bruins situations with Thomas as well .....

Problem with your logic is that you are comparing apples to oranges.

Who replaces Carter and how many goals will he contribute? Take those away from the 57.

When you ran the numbers for the goalies, you calculated the *difference*. Gotta do the same for Carter versus his replacement.

PKC wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:

PKC wrote:
You've lost your damn mind if you think the Flyers are gonna trade Jeff Carter at the deadline to the Florida Panthers for Vokoun, even with an extension.

Why? It's perfect, the Flyers get one of the best in the business, re-unite him with Timonen and Hartnell, have the team to win a Cup for sure.

Carter is a nice piece, but he's really expendable IMO. Giroux is coming and coming up big time, VanRiemsdyke is coming hard as well. Trading Carter is the price of winning. Watch how close this is to happening and how many rumours heat up soon.

Allow me a moment to show you some mathematics to explain why you don't trade Carter for Vokoun:

The best variable to gauge how a goaltender would improve your position in most cases is to look at sv%.

Vokoun's sv% was .929 on 2081 shots. Leighton's sv% was .905 on 899. Applying Vokoun's sv% to the number of shots Leighton faced would yield 835 saves to Leighton's 814. A difference of 21 goals. Vokoun had exactly twice the amount of starts that Leighton had. So over an entire season, that's a net contribution of 42 goals to the defense.

The question is: is Jeff Carter closer to the 46 goal, 38 assist season he had two years ago or the 33 goal, 28 assist season he had last year?

Conventional wisdom puts him somewhere right in the middle, 40 goals, 35 assists. That's a net contribution of 57 goals (40 + [35*0.5]) to the offense.

So you've got one guy impacting your roster (and these numbers are all theoretical since performances fluctuate from season to season) by 57 goals and the other impacting by 42 goals.

There's a reason big time goal scorers go for a king's ransom while the trend for paying for goaltenders is heading in the opposite direction, 1) market availability for elite goaltenders is limited and 2) teams are starting to realize that shaving a few dollars off of the goaltending position and re-investing it into impacting your net offensive contribution is worth more in the long run.

That's why teams with average goaltending are all of a sudden winning the Cup while teams with massive cap hits at the position are either watching from the stands or getting eliminated in the first two rounds.

Just look at the conference finals last year on both sides: San Jose was the only team with a goalie with a cap hit higher than $860,000.

And I imagine that the numbers for the previous year will also show a big discrepancy between what teams in the final four are spending on their starting goaltenders.