RFAs/UFAs/Rookies -- what will the Sens look like next year?

(this is a copy/paste of Dash's post from the Colorado GDT that I felt deserved its own thread.)

A little early to start thinking this far ahead, but with some of our UFAs and RFAs, it gives Ottawa a chance to move on with some perhaps, and allow the youth to step in.

UFAs:
- Donovan (I think he might retire after the season anyways - holding off on the surgery is likely his way of finishing his career)
- Shannon - the way he's been playing lately, might get him another contract. He's not young though, and has not been consistent enough to earn a top 6 spot.
- Volchenkov - a huge fan favourite and epitome of heart and soul, but is he going to demand and warrant more than his $2.5M and if so, how much more?

RFAs:
- Nick Foligno - hasn't really worked his way up to a top 6 forward, but he's still young, still has potential, and likely won't cost too much to keep.
- Peter Regin - Will be re-signed as he is a solid player and should only get better.
- Jesse winchester - Solid player as well, good role player and 3rd-4th liner.
- Picard - Inconsistent and has been a journeyman at such a young age. Might have the potential to be a top 4 pairing dman, but do the Sens have the patience?
- Campoli - basically cost us a late 1st rnd pick, and has not won fans over all that much. Inconsistent as well and like Picard, may be a top 4 guy, but has not shown it yet.

With Alfie, Michalek, Spezza, Fisher, Kovalev, Cheechoo, Kelly, Ruutu, Neil, Kuba, Phillips, Karlsson, and Carkner all under contract either next year or beyond, it is likely some spots will need to be filled. Pending re-signing our UFAs/RFAs, that could leave 3 forward spots and 2 defence positions. Retaining Foligno leaves two left and if Cheechoo is bought-out, we're back to 3.

I'd like to see Z. Smith and Petersson join the club as well as Cowen and Weircioch. Yes, we'll be a young(er) team, but these guys will learn a lot and develop quicker.

My guess would be that Campoli lands in Carolina for a round pick

Would like to think that we could get a pick for him, unfortunately not sure he's played himself into a position of having much value. But I am all in favour for a youth movement, it's no secret. Also, Bingo is nearly half free agents (mostly restricted).

Anyone fear Alfie does not have much left? Two pretty serious injuries in the last two seasons, and his age is not helping him. I think it is showing in his production too. Uo until a few seasons ago his points totals continually increased, but have been on the decline since. Could be lack of production from the line or could be the other factors I mentioned. It is only natural for this to happen - we see it with a lot of ageing superstars.

Will Kovalev still be a Senator? What of Cheechoo? Kelly?

Campoli was being pushed around *a lot* in that Islanders game. They were always dumping it in on his side and giving him an extra shove. You think the coach still holds a grudge?

Anyhow, enough about last night, on to the future. I honestly don't see how we can continue with both Campoli and Picard next season when we'll have Cowen pushing for a spot. Campoli is a small guy and we already have Karlsson. Of the two I would keep Picard with size being the tie-breaker. Keep playing Campoli to pad his stats and maybe make a trade at the deadline. Who knows. I'd be OK with the Sens moving either one or both of them. And, yes, it would suck losing a late 1st rounder, but we got Winch for nothing. In the end it all evens out.

I'm not sure about Wiercioch. If he puts on another 20 lbs, maybe, but I don't think he'll be quite ready next fall. Maybe toward the end of the season, who knows. In any case, do we really want to have two rookies and a sophomore on defense?

Zach Smith is probably ready, but Petersson needs some time getting accustomed to the NHL rinks and style of play. We also have Cody Bass down in Bingo. One of those three -- Winchester, Smith, Bass -- will probably have to be moved because we can't use all of them and they all deserve a shot at the NHL.

We have an interesting situation developing at center. Regin and Fisher are doing a great job holding down the top two spots, but Spezza is coming back eventually. We'll have Spezza, Fisher, Regin, Kelly, Winchester in the lineup, Foligno played center in Sudbury, Smith, Bass and O'Brien in Bingo, and prospects like Caporusso and Silfverberg coming up on the radar. I see a lot of 3/4 centers in there. Maybe some can be converted to wing, like Foligno, but we will probably end up having to move someone. Yes, Kelly's name has been brought up many times.

There are just too many names to consider all the possibilities, but I'm looking forward to next season's training camp. It was fun this year as so many were pushing for spots. We ended up with Carkner, Regin and Karlsson becoming full time roster players, plus Wichester continuing from where he left off alst season. If not for Cheechoo, we could have had four rookies (two D and two F) in the lineup full time. Next season we will probably have Cowen, but I would caution against too many other rookies when we will have so many sophomores.

The Montagoose wrote:My guess would be that Campoli lands in Carolina for a round pick

A "round" pick? A '1' is not round, so did you mean a '2' (with that half-loop at the top)?

jk

Speaking of "round", anyone see Ray Bourque interviewed before the WJC game? Wow, spending too much time at Boston Pizza?

Strike that, he co-owns an Italian restaurant in Boston. Probably gets all the calzone he eat for free.

good topic i like it. i'd say we have to resign all of our RFA's. if just so that some of them can be traded for late round picks. campoli has a future in the NHL i think, just needs to have a team see him as that. picard has shown sparks of being a top 4 especially on the PP, so if we needed to move him i think it could be done. i'm not sure shannon will be here next season. he's very streaky.

i think it's great that fisher and regin have played so well in the 1stand 2nd line as center. but.... fisher is no 1st line center. he's having a career year, i'm hoping he can become a 30 goal player but i aint gonna bet the farm on it. regin... maybe be our second line center in the long run.

as far as petersson goes, he's my favourite offencive prospect. i'm hoping he can become a 30 goal scorer, but he's still pretty small. i don't see him in ottawa next year. maybe the one after that? i'm not sure he'll see any bingo time, he'll have t make the jump straight from the SEL. but i agree it would help for him to play on NA ice in a NA game.

silfersberg, sill haven't seen him play... how is he?

if cowen can make the jump next year, i'm good with that.
let's just not be an all youngster team.

Flo The Action wrote:good topic i like it. i'd say we have to resign all of our RFA's. if just so that some of them can be traded for late round picks. campoli has a future in the NHL i think, just needs to have a team see him as that. picard has shown sparks of being a top 4 especially on the PP, so if we needed to move him i think it could be done. i'm not sure shannon will be here next season. he's very streaky.

i think it's great that fisher and regin have played so well in the 1stand 2nd line as center. but.... fisher is no 1st line center. he's having a career year, i'm hoping he can become a 30 goal player but i aint gonna bet the farm on it. regin... maybe be our second line center in the long run.

as far as petersson goes, he's my favourite offencive prospect. i'm hoping he can become a 30 goal scorer, but he's still pretty small. i don't see him in ottawa next year. maybe the one after that? i'm not sure he'll see any bingo time, he'll have t make the jump straight from the SEL. but i agree it would help for him to play on NA ice in a NA game.

silfersberg, sill haven't seen him play... how is he?

if cowen can make the jump next year, i'm good with that.
let's just not be an all youngster team.

The RFAs don't necessarily have to be signed, as long as a qualifying offer is made. Then at least we get picks if they do sign elsewhere. The drawback with either scenario of course, is that if we don't trade them in your signing scenario, or if they don't sign elsewhere after giving them a QO, then we're stuck with them.

ah, i didn't know about the quaifing offer part. that sounds good too... as far as what they are worth i think campoli and picard have worth. but that's just my opinion.

ddt wrote:

Flo The Action wrote:good topic i like it. i'd say we have to resign all of our RFA's. if just so that some of them can be traded for late round picks. campoli has a future in the NHL i think, just needs to have a team see him as that. picard has shown sparks of being a top 4 especially on the PP, so if we needed to move him i think it could be done. i'm not sure shannon will be here next season. he's very streaky.

i think it's great that fisher and regin have played so well in the 1stand 2nd line as center. but.... fisher is no 1st line center. he's having a career year, i'm hoping he can become a 30 goal player but i aint gonna bet the farm on it. regin... maybe be our second line center in the long run.

as far as petersson goes, he's my favourite offencive prospect. i'm hoping he can become a 30 goal scorer, but he's still pretty small. i don't see him in ottawa next year. maybe the one after that? i'm not sure he'll see any bingo time, he'll have t make the jump straight from the SEL. but i agree it would help for him to play on NA ice in a NA game.

silfersberg, sill haven't seen him play... how is he?

if cowen can make the jump next year, i'm good with that.
let's just not be an all youngster team.

The RFAs don't necessarily have to be signed, as long as a qualifying offer is made. Then at least we get picks if they do sign elsewhere. The drawback with either scenario of course, is that if we don't trade them in your signing scenario, or if they don't sign elsewhere after giving them a QO, then we're stuck with them.

I wouldn't really count on any of the guys outside of the AHL making the roster next year. I would suggest the following is most likely:

Cowen - another year in the WHL

Wiercoch - 2 years in the AHL

Petersson - 1 more year in Sweden and then at least part of a year in the AHL

Bass - Injury callup next year

O'Brien - no future with this team unless he makes a 180 in his development

Silferburg - a couple more years in Sweden or the AHL

Lehner - moves to the AHL next year and starts for the B-Sens.

Zach Smith - will surely make the team next year.

My opinion:

If we could trade Kuba for a pick, trade/waive cheechoo.

AUTO-GENERATED CAPGEEK.COM LINES
FORWARDS
Jason Spezza ($7.000m) / Alexei Kovalev ($5.000m) / Daniel Alfredsson ($4.875m)
Milan Michalek ($4.333m) / Mike Fisher ($4.200m) / * Matthew Lombardi ($3.000m)
Chris Kelly ($2.125m) / Chris Neil ($2.000m) / Jarkko Ruutu ($1.300m)
* Nick Foligno ($1.250m) / * Peter Regin ($1.250m) / * Jesse Winchester ($0.900m)
DEFENSEMEN
* Anton Volchenkov ($4.000m) / Chris Phillips ($3.500m)
* Stephan Robidas ($2.500m) / Erik Karlsson ($1.300m)
Matt Carkner ($0.700m) / * Jared Cowen ($0.600m)
GOALTENDERS
Pascal Leclaire ($3.800m) / Brian Elliott ($0.850m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 20; PAYROLL: $55.746m; CAP ROOM: $1.479m BONUSES: $0.425m

111519 wrote:My opinion:

If we could trade Kuba for a pick, trade/waive cheechoo.

AUTO-GENERATED CAPGEEK.COM LINES
FORWARDS
Jason Spezza ($7.000m) / Alexei Kovalev ($5.000m) / Daniel Alfredsson ($4.875m)
Milan Michalek ($4.333m) / Mike Fisher ($4.200m) / * Matthew Lombardi ($3.000m)
Chris Kelly ($2.125m) / Chris Neil ($2.000m) / Jarkko Ruutu ($1.300m)
* Nick Foligno ($1.250m) / * Peter Regin ($1.250m) / * Jesse Winchester ($0.900m)
DEFENSEMEN
* Anton Volchenkov ($4.000m) / Chris Phillips ($3.500m)
* Stephan Robidas ($2.500m) / Erik Karlsson ($1.300m)
Matt Carkner ($0.700m) / * Jared Cowen ($0.600m)
GOALTENDERS
Pascal Leclaire ($3.800m) / Brian Elliott ($0.850m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 20; PAYROLL: $55.746m; CAP ROOM: $1.479m BONUSES: $0.425m

First of all, Robidas carries a 3.3M cap him next season. Second of all, no team in their right mind would trade a guy putting up those numbers and costing them that little. He was ahead of the likes of Green and Phaneuf (for various reasons) in the Team Canada debate and costs half....

As for Kuba, if we don't trade him and buy out Cheechoo, I'm going to be pissed.

And I really don't want to see Cowen here next year.

111519 wrote:My opinion:

If we could trade Kuba for a pick, trade/waive cheechoo.

AUTO-GENERATED CAPGEEK.COM LINES
FORWARDS
Jason Spezza ($7.000m) / Alexei Kovalev ($5.000m) / Daniel Alfredsson ($4.875m)
Milan Michalek ($4.333m) / Mike Fisher ($4.200m) / * Matthew Lombardi ($3.000m)
Chris Kelly ($2.125m) / Chris Neil ($2.000m) / Jarkko Ruutu ($1.300m)
* Nick Foligno ($1.250m) / * Peter Regin ($1.250m) / * Jesse Winchester ($0.900m)
DEFENSEMEN
* Anton Volchenkov ($4.000m) / Chris Phillips ($3.500m)
* Stephan Robidas ($2.500m) / Erik Karlsson ($1.300m)
Matt Carkner ($0.700m) / * Jared Cowen ($0.600m)
GOALTENDERS
Pascal Leclaire ($3.800m) / Brian Elliott ($0.850m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 20; PAYROLL: $55.746m; CAP ROOM: $1.479m BONUSES: $0.425m

stephen robidas is signed by the stars for the next 4 years after this one for over 3mill... and that's a good price. so nice wishful thinking

111519 wrote:My opinion:

If we could trade Kuba for a pick, trade/waive cheechoo.

AUTO-GENERATED CAPGEEK.COM LINES
FORWARDS
Jason Spezza ($7.000m) / Alexei Kovalev ($5.000m) / Daniel Alfredsson ($4.875m)
Milan Michalek ($4.333m) / Mike Fisher ($4.200m) / * Matthew Lombardi ($3.000m)
Chris Kelly ($2.125m) / Chris Neil ($2.000m) / Jarkko Ruutu ($1.300m)
* Nick Foligno ($1.250m) / * Peter Regin ($1.250m) / * Jesse Winchester ($0.900m)
DEFENSEMEN
* Anton Volchenkov ($4.000m) / Chris Phillips ($3.500m)
* Stephan Robidas ($2.500m) / Erik Karlsson ($1.300m)
Matt Carkner ($0.700m) / * Jared Cowen ($0.600m)
GOALTENDERS
Pascal Leclaire ($3.800m) / Brian Elliott ($0.850m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 20; PAYROLL: $55.746m; CAP ROOM: $1.479m BONUSES: $0.425m

Not bad. But...
No one is going to take Cheechoo off our hands, it's a buyout or keep him.

Lombardi is not a top 6 forward.

Your numbers for Regin and Winchester are rather high, I would think around 1M for Regin and 800K for Winchester.

I don't believe Cowen will be ready next year, and even if he is we have no depth at the position without Campoli and Picard.

Somebody will pay Robidas more than 2.5M as a UFA.

Robidas has already re-signed with Dallas.