The New Centaurs: Murray's Makeover

wprager wrote:I think the feeling is that if you follow the Detroit blue-print you need a solid goalie, not more than that. And if Elliott turns out to be a bust there are lots of UFAs and RFAs becoming available in the next couple of years. This year is pretty much done, and we are not aiming to make much of a splash next year either (maybe make the playoffs but not contend for the Cup) we can see how Elliot progresses. For all those reasons we don't need a #1 now or even next year.

OK, let's say that as you suggest, we follow the 'Detroit Model' (can we say the 'Boston Model' as well? but that's for another post 8) ).

Chris Osgood is having less than a banner year, but he's still a 'money' goalie. His playoff performance last year was awesome--I watched him in every game he played, and the competition he faced was massive. And I have seen him play some excellent games this year as well. Still, the Wings are probably looking ahead...

Ty Conklin has developed into another 'money' goalie. He carried the Pens last year when Fleury was hurt, and he has been an excellent compliment to Osgood as Ozzy has had his issues. Either one can and will steal games, and most importantly, even whem they give up a lot of goals, they'll come back and make game winning saves.

Detroit has had true Number One goalies, and depth at the goalie position, for years, with Osgood, Conklin, Hasek, Jimmy Howard, Joey McDonald, Legace, and Joseph.

I watch Detroit often and IMHO, as a team, they are probably the best two-way club in the NHL. No team plays with better puck possession. And their balance at every position is unmatched.

We agree Ottawa has a long way to go. Until they can reach a superior level of overall defensive play, IMHO the Senators don't have the luxury of average goaltending. Under Hartsburg, they have improved due to his system. But they still give up way too many scoring chances, and all the goalies so far give up a soft goal in almost every game.

Building from the goalie position out, Ottawa can return to contention much faster. IMHO Brian Elliott would do very well alongside a real #1.

This year seems to me to be a very good time to secure that position, with UFA and RFA goalies including Backstrom, Thomas, Fernandez, Khabibulin, Roloson, Anderson, Lehtonen, Conklin, Harding, McDonald, and many more.

So why wait?

I agree with wprager - a reliable, mobile defense corps is key. They can make the goalies look a lot better (or worse) than they really are. I don't think our defense is anything close to that now, but I do think that we have some serious talent coming down the pipes. Add in a key player or two via trade or free agency, and I think we are on our way to the "Detroit" model.

The issue with bringing in one of the above-mentioned goalies, is that we end up blowing a wad on the 'tender, and that leaves us less to shore up the blue line. This weakens us both offensively and defensively.

This is probably a poor example, but if we had a choice of Fernandez and Aucoin (total salary for 2008-09 $8.75M) or Bouwmeester with Elliot/Auld in net (projected net salary ~$8.5-9.0M), I believe we'd be far better off with J-Bo and our current pair in net. Fernandez would certainly help keep the GA down, but J-Bo would do that as well as increase the GF. Also, we have Auld to act as a mentor (of sorts) for Elliot; J-Bo would be a great mentor (along with others) for Karlsson, Wiercoch, etc.

That list is incredibly unappealing. The only goalies I'm confident in are Lehtonen and maybe Harding and even those have question marks. Anderson, McDonald and Conklin are not really #1s. Thomas is not leaving Boston, and he's always been sort of a question for me. I don't really want anything to do with Minnesota goalies, and Rollie and Bulin are too old.

We're not going to be competing for the Cup for a while, IMO. I'd give the games to Elliott to let him get used to the NHL schedule and let him develop.

Acrobat wrote:I agree with wprager - a reliable, mobile defense corps is key. They can make the goalies look a lot better (or worse) than they really are. I don't think our defense is anything close to that now, but I do think that we have some serious talent coming down the pipes. Add in a key player or two via trade or free agency, and I think we are on our way to the "Detroit" model.

The issue with bringing in one of the above-mentioned goalies, is that we end up blowing a wad on the 'tender, and that leaves us less to shore up the blue line. This weakens us both offensively and defensively.

This is probably a poor example, but if we had a choice of Fernandez and Aucoin (total salary for 2008-09 $8.75M) or Bouwmeester with Elliot/Auld in net (projected net salary ~$8.5-9.0M), I believe we'd be far better off with J-Bo and our current pair in net. Fernandez would certainly help keep the GA down, but J-Bo would do that as well as increase the GF. Also, we have Auld to act as a mentor (of sorts) for Elliot; J-Bo would be a great mentor (along with others) for Karlsson, Wiercoch, etc.

Why on earth would JayBo want to come here? We can be a pretty fickle fan-base, and we're not really a competitive team.

The only reason IMO he'd come here is for money, and if that's the case I'm not sure I want him. Unless he and Spezza really are good friends.

Hmmm...those are some big ticket items. IMHO JayBo would have no interest in Ottawa over Florida; Aucoin's 34 years old--not a good investment.

Here's another scenario.

Dwayne Roloson for one year at 3.5MM to mentor Elliott.

Francois Beauchemin at 3MM.

Trade Neil to SJS for Semenov, re-sign Semenov at 1MM.

Thoughts? :pirat:

davetherave wrote:Hmmm...those are some big ticket items. IMHO JayBo would have no interest in Ottawa over Florida; Aucoin's 34 years old--not a good investment.

Here's another scenario.

Dwayne Roloson for one year at 3.5MM to mentor Elliott.

Francois Beauchemin at 3MM.

Trade Neil to SJS for Semenov, re-sign Semenov at 1MM.

Thoughts? :pirat:

Nooooooooo thank you on Roloson. He's over the hill and frankly no better than Auld in my opinion (and considerably more expensive in this scenario).

I'm open to Beauchemin though.

Not interested in Semenov. We could get the same effectiveness from a traffic pylon for a fraction of the cost.

I think we have to recognize that even when we were dominating the league, we were not pulling in UFAs. We're not going to attract UFAs based on the city, media, or competitiveness of the team. Thus, the only way would be through overpayment.

And that can have potentially devastating consequences long-term.

We're not going to duplicate the Flyer's re-build. Accept that our re-build is more than a one year thing, but that the benefits are potentially enormous.

OK - I wasn't trying to imply that any of them were appropriate options, or that they would try to come here.

My point was that, all other things being equal, the young, mobile defenseman in front of a capable goalie is a better choice than a higher-end but pricier goalie at the expense of a less mobile defense.

I even prefaced it by stating that it wasn't a good example. Way to miss the intended point guys...

Acrobat wrote:OK - I wasn't trying to imply that any of them were appropriate options, or that they would try to come here.

My point was that, all other things being equal, the young, mobile defenseman in front of a capable goalie is a better choice than a higher-end but pricier goalie at the expense of a less mobile defense.

No argument there.

asq2 wrote:

Nooooooooo thank you on Roloson. He's over the hill and frankly no better than Auld in my opinion (and considerably more expensive in this scenario).

I'm open to Beauchemin though.

Not interested in Semenov. We could get the same effectiveness from a traffic pylon for a fraction of the cost.

I think we have to recognize that even when we were dominating the league, we were not pulling in UFAs. We're not going to attract UFAs based on the city, media, or competitiveness of the team. Thus, the only way would be through overpayment.

And that can have potentially devastating consequences long-term.

We're not going to duplicate the Flyer's re-build. Accept that our re-build is more than a one year thing, but that the benefits are potentially enormous.

Have you watched Rollie play this year? He has regained his old form, and had some awesome games, like when he beat San Jose pretty much all by himself. I watched that one and it was a spectacular performance.

Is Semenov more or less of a pylon than Jason Smith? I've watched him playing for the Sharks (I catch most of their games on NHLGamecenter), and he's more mobile, younger, tougher and cheaper.

His scouting report also appears to contradict your point of view:
http://forecaster.canada.com/faceoff/hockey/player.cgi?1938

Regarding your comment about UFA aversion, I simply don't know enough (as I've been away from Ottawa for the last few years) to agree or disagree with you.

I will agree this process is at least a two year rebuild.
:study:

He's pretty pylon-esque from what I've seen of him. Many Sharks fans have also told me of his utter uselessness.

While Jason Smith is no Brian Campbell skating-wise, he brings veteran savvy, toughness, shot-blocking ability and leadership. He's a good mentor to the young'uns.

Personally, I think that Semenov just wastes a slot that could be given to a young defenceman like Mattias Karlsson.

What do you guys think about a possible trade with Phoenix? I was thinking about sending either jason smith or kuba to help them for the playoffs. I know thety don't have much money but if the make a playoff run that would surely help financially. Mueller, Turris, Hanzal, Boedker, Lisin... Just unreal on the kid front. There's gotta be a way to grab one of them

Not the first four you listed (in regards to Phoenix).

At least, not without giving up a pretty damn valuable asset.

On another site, I saw a proposal that I thought was intriguing and that both fan-bases agreed upon.

Kuba for Lashoff.

Thoughts?

asq2 wrote:He's pretty pylon-esque from what I've seen of him. Many Sharks fans have also told me of his utter uselessness.

While Jason Smith is no Brian Campbell skating-wise, he brings veteran savvy, toughness, shot-blocking ability and leadership. He's a good mentor to the young'uns.

Personally, I think that Semenov just wastes a slot that could be given to a young defenceman like Mattias Karlsson.

Well, if he was that 'useless', Coach McLellan wouldn't play him. Fact is, the Sharks are so deep on D, Semenov finds himself way down on the chart. Especially when you've got Boyle, Rob Blake, Lukowich, Vlasic, Erhoff, Douglas Murray and young Joslin. Methinks your SJ pals are spoiled.

Again, there's no reason why a Semenov--and I'm not insisting he's the be-all and end-all--should prevent a Mattias Karlsson from getting his shot when he's ready.

Ottawa is way too thin on D right now.

And 2.6MM is way too much to pay for Jason Smith's mentoring.

asq2 wrote:Not the first four you listed (in regards to Phoenix).

At least, not without giving up a pretty damn valuable asset.

On another site, I saw a proposal that I thought was intriguing and that both fan-bases agreed upon.

Kuba for Lashoff.

Thoughts?

Pretty fair.
But Id rather shop for forwards before Defensemen for Kuba. If we're still looking for that 7M PMD for next year of course. Because VOlchie Phillips Smith Picard and Lee will probably be in the line up next year, and we will probably lose oe or two forwards.

In regards to Semenov, Lee, Picard, Volchenkov, Phillips and Smith are firmly entrenched on the roster for next season. I'd rather give the #6 spot to Karlsson.

asq2 wrote:In regards to Semenov, Lee, Picard, Volchenkov, Phillips and Smith are firmly entrenched on the roster for next season. I'd rather give the #6 spot to Karlsson.

You're assuming Phillips and Smith are still in Ottawa then...

I don't see them being dealt, to be frank.

Phillips has the A on this team and entrenched in the community. His family is here and he's still a good deal at $3.5 million a season. It's been rough so far this season, but we can say that of almost everyone. He's been the #1 here for three seasons and is a good role model.

As for Smith, it just doesn't look good to deal a UFA signing before even the first year of the signing is up IMO.

asq2 wrote:Not the first four you listed (in regards to Phoenix).

At least, not without giving up a pretty damn valuable asset.

On another site, I saw a proposal that I thought was intriguing and that both fan-bases agreed upon.

Kuba for Lashoff.

Thoughts?

I saw that as well how ever I am still of belief that Kuba can also fetch us a pick. Especially with the log jam of teams out west who are in the battle for the 8th spot.

After looking over the deals and stats from last year the closet comparisons I can find are Brian Campbell and Brad Stuart who were both UFA and dealt at the deadline. Stuart got LA 2nd and 4th rounder while Campbell was dealt for Bernier and a 1st. Kuba sits in between them based on over all points put up over their careers.

So does Kuba get you a prospect and a 2nd, a 1st and prospect, or a combination of picks or prospects. Should be interesting to see.