How much will Brian Elliot ask for this summer?

Here's my predictions for RFA Brian Elliott (23)
Maximum - $2.2 x 2 yrs (Mike Smith, 26).
Medium - $1.75 x 2 yrs (Dan Ellis, 28).
Minimum - $.775 x 2 yrs (Jaroslav Halak, 23)
--------------------
Average - $1.575

It's reasonable to think he could get anywhere between the low and high, based on his level of play.

I think the Senators have recognized their mistakes in awarding high priced contracts to players based on recent play (Gerber, Emery, Fisher). Cannot see them overpaying for a long period, even if it means Elliott turns into the next Kiprusoff/Nabokov in 2 years and is a UFA.

I'd offer him about $995K for two years.

If he doesn't play 10 games, does his RFA status still kick in?

wprager wrote:If he doesn't play 10 games, does his RFA status still kick in?

Yep. Doesn't matter if he plays 0 NHL games, for that matter. The key factors in determining RFA / UFA status are the age of the player, the number of years he's played professional hockey, and the number of years that have elapsed since he was drafted.

The Ellis and Smith deals mentioned above sounds about right. Everything will depend on how what Elliott does with these final 3 months of the season.

rooneypoo wrote:
Yep. Doesn't matter if he plays 0 NHL games, for that matter. The key factors in determining RFA / UFA status are the age of the player, the number of years he's played professional hockey, and the number of years that have elapsed since he was drafted.

The Ellis and Smith deals mentioned above sounds about right. Everything will depend on how what Elliott does with these final 3 months of the season.

Quite the catch-22, no? If we kept Auld and Gerber, we'd tank, get a great draft pick and re-sign Elliot for less than if he continues his streak.

If we somehow own the 2nd half and make it into the playoffs - which I would say is at about 90% impossible - and Elliot plays outstanding, we might have to pay out more. Where is the win there? :silent:

I still think Elliot gets a 2 year, 2.2 million dollar package so we can evaluate him before he hits UFA status. Sounds right, but this is one franked up NHL, so who knows?

504Heater wrote:
Quite the catch-22, no? If we kept Auld and Gerber, we'd tank, get a great draft pick and re-sign Elliot for less than if he continues his streak.

If we somehow own the 2nd half and make it into the playoffs - which I would say is at about 90% impossible - and Elliot plays outstanding, we might have to pay out more. Where is the win there? :silent:

I still think Elliot gets a 2 year, 2.2 million dollar package so we can evaluate him before he hits UFA status. Sounds right, but this is one franked up NHL, so who knows?

Elliot will most likely take a 2 year deal which is a 10% bump on his current salary which will put him somewhere around 1M per year.

I think everyone will be shocked as to how cheap players will be had this summer. The economy is a mess and people aren't spending. When Microsoft lays off, you know times are tough.....

If he asks for anything over 850, he can go. He hasn't proven anything yet.

SensGirl11 wrote:If he asks for anything over 850, he can go. He hasn't proven anything yet.

That's a low number though. I would go 1.3M.

marakh wrote:

SensGirl11 wrote:If he asks for anything over 850, he can go. He hasn't proven anything yet.

That's a low number though. I would go 1.3M.

The Dan Ellis contract seems like a good basis for comparison to me, especially if Elliott closes out the year with decent numbers. If he's lights out, Mike Smith contract might be a better comparable.

It's totally unreasonable to expect that he's going to settle for *less* than his entry-level deal, or than his probable back-up, Auld, is making. Especially if he closes out the season strong, as I expect he will.

I agree, tho', with the poster who said that this is going to be a conservative July 1. Or, at least, if GMs are getting sensible, it really ought to be.

So if Elliott gets an offer sheet--which he very well might--what are Bryan Murray's options if Bri-El walks?

davetherave wrote:So if Elliott gets an offer sheet--which he very well might--what are Bryan Murray's options if Bri-El walks?

Absolutely no chance Elliot gets an offer sheet. No chance whatsoever.

Number Twenty Nine wrote:I think everyone will be shocked as to how cheap players will be had this summer. The economy is a mess and people aren't spending. When Microsoft lays off, you know times are tough.....

Agreed 100%.

There is a better chance of Gerbe signing in Ottawa than Elliott getting an offer sheet.

Neely4Life wrote:There is a better chance of Gerbe signing in Ottawa than Elliott getting an offer sheet.

Yeah really. The threat is out there if he finished the season 35-0 with a 0.62 GAA and .980 save %.

504Heater wrote:

Neely4Life wrote:There is a better chance of Gerbe signing in Ottawa than Elliott getting an offer sheet.

Yeah really. The threat is out there if he finished the season 35-0 with a 0.62 GAA and .980 save %.

Talented young goalies are hot commodities.

If Elliott played say, twenty to twenty five of the last 38 games, and posted a plus .500 record with respectable stats, IMHO he might attract some attention.

Colorado Avalanche, anyone?

Let's say he's offered $1.5M - is that really out of line anyhow?
It's only once you hit $1.75+ that it gets a bit wacky. At that point, consider taking the second rounder (or first, if it's over $2.6M)

I don't see an offer sheet being likely, but if it comes, I don't see it being a problem.

Anyhow, Murray strikes me as the vindictive type as well. Rob from him, and he'll rob from you. :pirat:

Acrobat wrote:Let's say he's offered $1.5M - is that really out of line anyhow?
It's only once you hit $1.75+ that it gets a bit wacky. At that point, consider taking the second rounder (or first, if it's over $2.6M)

I don't see an offer sheet being likely, but if it comes, I don't see it being a problem.

Anyhow, Murray strikes me as the vindictive type as well. Rob from him, and he'll rob from you. :pirat:

The Avs are paying 0.8MM each to Raycroft and Budaj. Both free agents in the summer. They'll need goaltending. If they go shopping I wouldn't be surprised if they target Elliott.
:cyclops:

And they also have RFAs who might be targets - hence the reason that we haven't seen too many players poached by rival GMs (K.Lowe being the exception)