Prospecting Prospect - End of Season 18/19

Draft lottery on June 26. That’s the original date of the draft.

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Lagoon wrote:Draft lottery on June 26. That’s the original date of the draft.

I don't think it's been confirmed yet, but yeah, that's the rumour.

Let's hope. Where are the rumors coming from?

June 26 date is coming from a Renaud Lavoie tweet this morning:

Hearing June 26 is the date that we should have the NHL Lottery Draft. No dates on the NHL Draft yet.

From what I've been able to gather the NHL will need about a month from the time they lock the venues to starting the play play-in round. Even if that's only a best of 5 it is getting very unlikely that the bottom 8 of the 24 "playoff" teams will be decided by the 26th. Which means that it's beginning to look like a done deal that only the 7 bottom teams will participate in the lottery. Not quite 10% yet but damn close.

Of course the probabilities are not yet known but you've got to think that with the 2nd and 3rd overall the Sens would have the best odds of landing Lafrenier.

wprager wrote:From what I've been able to gather the NHL will need about a month from the time they lock the venues to starting the play play-in round. Even if that's only a best of 5 it is getting very unlikely that the bottom 8 of the 24 "playoff" teams will be decided by the 26th. Which means that it's beginning to look like a done deal that only the 7 bottom teams will participate in the lottery. Not quite 10% yet but damn close.

Of course the probabilities are not yet known but you've got to think that with the 2nd and 3rd overall the Sens would have the best odds of landing Lafrenier.

I was thinking the same thing. There will 100% be preferential treatment for the 7 teams left out. For those complaining (ie: Montreal) if they are upset, it goes against the integrity of the NHL and everything Bergevin has done and said to not want to participate in the playoffs. Sucks to be them I guess, but what's to say their overplayed goalie doesn't come back from a long pause in play and lead their team to a cup run. And what's to say a team like Tampa or Toronto who is against the cap intentionally flubs so they can enter the draft lottery. It's bad enough they could end up with a top-10 pick. I think this is the only way that makes it fair for everyone.

As for the teams that don't make the playoffs. they should all be eligible to get #1 and slide down a max of one spot. They should also stack the odds appropriately.

1st - 25%
2nd - 20%
3rd- 18%
4th - 15%
5th - 10%
6th - 7%
7th - 5%

7th normally has a 6.5% chance at #1 but also have 79.6% chance of drafting 7th overall or worse. Again I think this makes it as fait as possible for everyone

It kinda sucks being the only Canadian team out of the running, and it would really hurt if the Habs won (I'm confident the Leafs will fold again, and I be don't really care much about the West).

On the other hand if the Habs knock out the Penguins, I'll be ok, I think.

Whoever wins the cup will have an asterisk next to their name. The sens stand to come out as the biggest winners this season

I am perfectly alright with the way things are. no chance te habs win the lottery, we have the best chances and we likely won't be dropping further than 3 and fourth and still net impact stars.

that said can we win the lottery with SJS pick? hahaha

wprager wrote:It kinda sucks being the only Canadian team out of the running, and it would really hurt if the Habs won (I'm confident the Leafs will fold again, and I be don't really care much about the West).

Well, none of the Canadian teams are going to win the Cup, and we're going to come out with, by far, the shiniest draft toys. So Diddle it, things are good.

tim1_2 wrote:

wprager wrote:It kinda sucks being the only Canadian team out of the running, and it would really hurt if the Habs won (I'm confident the Leafs will fold again, and I be don't really care much about the West).

Well, none of the Canadian teams are going to win the Cup, and we're going to come out with, by far, the shiniest draft toys.  So Diddle it, things are good.

If we’re going by Bobby Mac’s tweets, we might not.

It’s still up in the air for the draft still.

Ya I would be furious if I didn't make the "playoffs" but other teams could still get 1st. Apparently teams 8-15 would only have a 3% chance each but that's still 24% total.

I am not as hurt if teams can only fall one spot but it sounds like that is off the table too.

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:Ya I would be furious if I didn't make the "playoffs" but other teams could still get 1st. Apparently teams 8-15 would only have a 3% chance each but that's still 24% total.

I am not as hurt if teams can only fall one spot but it sounds like that is off the table too.

there's a whole lot up in the air right now but from what i gathered it might not just be one team moving to first overall but maybe a few of the top picks.

this isn't the year to get cute for everyone. if you include 15 teams you make it "move up 4 spots" (which could still Diddle us especially if there are multiple available lotteries).

I still don't understand the logic. they put these teams in the playoffs, they shouldn't be available to draft the top 3 picks. I didn't like it the years they made it that way. why reward teams that are near playoff contention. you're supposed to prevent tanking with a lottery but that lottery shouldn't result in teams getting amazing picks when they aren't in a dire situation. that's not parity.

The draft lottery will include the 7 teams that didn't qualify for the 24-team playoff tournament, plus the 8 teams eliminated in the qualifying round.

That sucks. Unless they give each of those 8 teams the same odds then there's no way they can hold the lottery on the 26th. Looking at last year, the odds for the last lottery team were 1.0% for 1st overall, 1.1 for 2nd and 1.2 for 3rd. So a 3.3% chance of drafting top-three. If that's what they are planning on doing this year then all those draft lottery simulators need a significant update.

EDIT: forget same odds -- they have to wait until the play-in round is over before they can hold the lottery. There's no way that happens by Jun 26.

That sucks. Unless they give each of those 8 teams the same odds then there's no way they can hold the lottery on the 26th. Looking at last year, the odds for the last lottery team were 1.0% for 1st overall, 1.1 for 2nd and 1.2 for 3rd. So a 3.3% chance of drafting top-three. If that's what they are planning on doing this year then all those draft lottery simulators need a significant update.

EDIT: forget same odds -- they have to wait until the play-in round is over before they can hold the lottery. There's no way that happens by Jun 26.