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GM Hockey » Ottawa Senators » Prospecting Prospect - End of Season 18/19

Prospecting Prospect - End of Season 18/19

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Lagoon


Veteran
Veteran
The draft lottery will include the 7 teams that didn't qualify for the 24-team playoff tournament, plus the 8 teams eliminated in the qualifying round.

wprager


Administrator
Administrator
That sucks. Unless they give each of those 8 teams the same odds then there's no way they can hold the lottery on the 26th. Looking at last year, the odds for the last lottery team were 1.0% for 1st overall, 1.1 for 2nd and 1.2 for 3rd. So a 3.3% chance of drafting top-three. If that's what they are planning on doing this year then all those draft lottery simulators need a significant update.

EDIT: forget same odds -- they have to wait until the play-in round is over before they can hold the lottery. There's no way that happens by Jun 26.

wprager


Administrator
Administrator
That sucks. Unless they give each of those 8 teams the same odds then there's no way they can hold the lottery on the 26th. Looking at last year, the odds for the last lottery team were 1.0% for 1st overall, 1.1 for 2nd and 1.2 for 3rd. So a 3.3% chance of drafting top-three. If that's what they are planning on doing this year then all those draft lottery simulators need a significant update.

EDIT: forget same odds -- they have to wait until the play-in round is over before they can hold the lottery. There's no way that happens by Jun 26.

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator
Garrioch:


_________________
Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

Ev

Ev
Franchise Player
Franchise Player
wprager wrote:That sucks.  Unless they give each of those 8 teams the same odds then there's no way they can hold the lottery on the 26th.  Looking at last year, the odds for the last lottery team were 1.0% for 1st overall, 1.1 for 2nd and 1.2 for 3rd.  So a 3.3% chance of drafting top-three.  If that's what they are planning on doing this year then all those draft lottery simulators need a significant update.  

EDIT: forget same odds -- they have to wait until the play-in round is over before they can hold the lottery.  There's no way that happens by Jun 26.

they don't necessarily have to wait, because they might make it so whoever loses in the play in round gets the victor's spot in the draft, i.e. if Pittsburgh loses to Montreal they take Montreal's spot.

DefenceWinsChampionships


All-Star
All-Star
wprager wrote:That sucks.  Unless they give each of those 8 teams the same odds then there's no way they can hold the lottery on the 26th.  Looking at last year, the odds for the last lottery team were 1.0% for 1st overall, 1.1 for 2nd and 1.2 for 3rd.  So a 3.3% chance of drafting top-three.  If that's what they are planning on doing this year then all those draft lottery simulators need a significant update.  

EDIT: forget same odds -- they have to wait until the play-in round is over before they can hold the lottery.  There's no way that happens by Jun 26.

Actually, from what I heard they can still do the lottery before hand but if teams 8-15 win the lottery than they won't announce the winner until after. Not sure if this is true though.

But it looks like I may win this bet with Lagoon after all. Sadly this is a bet I was prepared to lose.

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator
Ah, they went with the "worst, most likely to be misunderstood" format.


_________________
Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

DefenceWinsChampionships


All-Star
All-Star
DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:
wprager wrote:That sucks.  Unless they give each of those 8 teams the same odds then there's no way they can hold the lottery on the 26th.  Looking at last year, the odds for the last lottery team were 1.0% for 1st overall, 1.1 for 2nd and 1.2 for 3rd.  So a 3.3% chance of drafting top-three.  If that's what they are planning on doing this year then all those draft lottery simulators need a significant update.  

EDIT: forget same odds -- they have to wait until the play-in round is over before they can hold the lottery.  There's no way that happens by Jun 26.

Actually, from what I heard they can still do the lottery before hand but if teams 8-15 win the lottery than they won't announce the winner until after. Not sure if this is true though.

But it looks like I may win this bet with Lagoon after all. Sadly this is a bet I was prepared to lose.

@Lagoon - pay up buttercup. well not yet, but probably lol

Ev

Ev
Franchise Player
Franchise Player
I'm more than OK with this format. Sens have best chance at first overall.

Hobiesens

Hobiesens
Sophomore
Sophomore
If they are doing the draw for 1st, 2nd and then 3rd, could the Sens possibly get 1st and 2nd picks, 1st and 3rd or 2nd and 3rd?

Flo The Action

Flo The Action
Franchise Player
Franchise Player
Ev wrote:I'm more than OK with this format. Sens have best chance at first overall.

that's not what concerns me.

i was hoping we would go back to only one team able to move up and that by only 4 spots.

that's the disappointment

DefenceWinsChampionships


All-Star
All-Star
Hobiesens wrote:If they are doing the draw for 1st, 2nd and then 3rd, could the Sens possibly get 1st and 2nd picks, 1st and 3rd or 2nd and 3rd?

Yes they can

Flo The Action

Flo The Action
Franchise Player
Franchise Player
Hobiesens wrote:If they are doing the draw for 1st, 2nd and then 3rd, could the Sens possibly get 1st and 2nd picks, 1st and 3rd or 2nd and 3rd?

we could also see a scenario (understandingly unlikely) where the draft order stands like this
1.Toronto
2.Montreal
3.New York Islanders
4.Detroit
5.Ottawa
6.Ottawa

I call this Melnyk's Law. "Sens always get dicked because of a karmic cosmic reaction to our Dung owner"

DefenceWinsChampionships


All-Star
All-Star
I don't think the sens can fall any worse than 5+6 bit chances of two picks in the top 4 are very possible

Flo The Action

Flo The Action
Franchise Player
Franchise Player
DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:I don't think the sens can fall any worse than 5+6 bit chances of two picks in the top 4 are very possible
i want at least one of the top 2 picks and one of the 3-4rth picks.
if we can get that we're set.

just make it happen Gary.

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator
The Leafs are 3rd in the Atlantic. I was under the impression that the top 3 get a bye to Conference quarter finals. Only 2 of the 3 play-in teams will slip to the 8 that will join the draft.

So the Leafs can't win the lottery.


_________________
Hey, I don't have all the answers. In life, to be honest, I've failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my wife. I love my life. And I wish you my kind of success.
- Dicky Fox

Hobiesens

Hobiesens
Sophomore
Sophomore
wprager wrote:The Leafs are 3rd in the Atlantic. I was under the impression that the top 3 get a bye to Conference quarter finals. Only 2 of the 3 play-in teams will slip to the 8 that will join the draft.

So the Leafs can't win the lottery.

If Columbus beats the Leafs, the Leafs do not make the "playoffs" and will be eligible to win the draft.

Lagoon

Lagoon
Veteran
Veteran
Flo The Action wrote:
Hobiesens wrote:If they are doing the draw for 1st, 2nd and then 3rd, could the Sens possibly get 1st and 2nd picks, 1st and 3rd or 2nd and 3rd?

we could also see a scenario (understandingly unlikely) where the draft order stands like this
1.Toronto
2.Montreal
3.New York Islanders
4.Detroit
5.Ottawa
6.Ottawa

I call this Melnyk's Law. "Sens always get dicked because of a karmic cosmic reaction to our Dung owner"

On the opposite side of the coin, if Florida beats the NYI we have a chance to greatly improve our third 1st rounder. With some other help from Montreal bearing Pittsburgh and Rangers beating Carolina, I think we would pick 13th.

Let’s hope for a Florida win at the very least to pick 15th at worst.

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