Ottawa Senators (present and past) TIDBITS & QUICK HITS!

SeawaySensFan wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:If you look at our schedule for January and February, it's not that tough until the end of Feb when we get the west coast road trip.  There's a real opportunity to gain ground there....

And then we have 16(!) games in March, the majority of which are at home.

Where *did* you get 16? And how *many* of those 16 games count as *actual* games?

Well if you factor in CORSI and goal differential and games played and where we are projected to be and tanking and the polar vortex, about 43.2% of those games are actual games, and even then, when using CORSI adjusted for zone starts, the ACTUAL number of games to be played is 18.6% of those 16 games, and then it's all likely meaningless because other teams will have more or less games played than us depending on the angle of the dangle.

Enjoy.

http://video.senators.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=1416&id=707935

LeCaptain wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:Christmas Break Update:

Ottawa is 4 points out of the last wildcard spot, and there's 7 teams competing for it.  Our overall goal differential (-4) isn't actually that bad, and the team has actually played pretty well of late.  A modest winning streak could get us back into a playoff spot, especially considering the Leafs and Wings are faltering.

Here's hoping the New Year brings about some Ws and a playoff berth for our Mighty Senatores.

4 pts out with 3 more games played is hardly 4 pts IMO.
The Leafs who have played as many games and are 7 pts ahead is more indicative.

We're done, stick a fork in us.

On the other hand, if we move the vets (Phillip, Legwang, Neil, Anderson) and replace them with callups (Claesson, Peumpel/Prince, Dziurzynski -- Lehner steps in for Anderson with Brodeur as backup when the Blues are done with him) then who knows, they could just as easily start winning games and not losing. Oh, don't forget Greening replaced with Robinson.

Legwang????

tim1_2 wrote:

LeCaptain wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:Christmas Break Update:

Ottawa is 4 points out of the last wildcard spot, and there's 7 teams competing for it.  Our overall goal differential (-4) isn't actually that bad, and the team has actually played pretty well of late.  A modest winning streak could get us back into a playoff spot, especially considering the Leafs and Wings are faltering.

Here's hoping the New Year brings about some Ws and a playoff berth for our Mighty Senatores.

4 pts out with 3 more games played is hardly 4 pts IMO.
The Leafs who have played as many games and are 7 pts ahead is more indicative.

OK, well, I kept things simple on purpose and just presented the facts.  I assumed it would be Prags who would tell me that the facts weren't actually the facts, but it's nice that you did that for him, LeCaptain.

The facts are that we're closer than ever to McDavid

I'd say the chances are about 30% of us making the playoffs at this point, but you can never count out the inevitable hot streak where we win 8 of 10 and look like world beaters. Likely be too little at that point, but who knows.

I do know, that despite the good effort vs Washington, I felt like busting up the room after that loss. We need those points vs lower tiered (I don't care where they are in the Metro) teams. We can't afford to ever 'come close'.

tim1_2 wrote:

LeCaptain wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:Christmas Break Update:

Ottawa is 4 points out of the last wildcard spot, and there's 7 teams competing for it.  Our overall goal differential (-4) isn't actually that bad, and the team has actually played pretty well of late.  A modest winning streak could get us back into a playoff spot, especially considering the Leafs and Wings are faltering.

Here's hoping the New Year brings about some Ws and a playoff berth for our Mighty Senatores.

4 pts out with 3 more games played is hardly 4 pts IMO.
The Leafs who have played as many games and are 7 pts ahead is more indicative.

OK, well, I kept things simple on purpose and just presented the facts.  I assumed it would be Prags who would tell me that the facts weren't actually the facts, but it's nice that you did that for him, LeCaptain.

Yeah, thanks LeC, appreciate that. What with presents that still need to be bought (one less now, as I've crossed Tim off the list) every second saved is precious.

SpezDispensed wrote:I'd say the chances are about 30% of us making the playoffs at this point, but you can never count out the inevitable hot streak where we win 8 of 10 and look like world beaters.  Likely be too little at that point, but who knows.

I do know, that despite the good effort vs Washington, I felt like busting up the room after that loss.  We need those points vs lower tiered (I don't care where they are in the Metro) teams.  We can't afford to ever 'come close'.  

We haven't been at 30% for a while, SD.

wprager wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:I'd say the chances are about 30% of us making the playoffs at this point, but you can never count out the inevitable hot streak where we win 8 of 10 and look like world beaters.  Likely be too little at that point, but who knows.

I do know, that despite the good effort vs Washington, I felt like busting up the room after that loss.  We need those points vs lower tiered (I don't care where they are in the Metro) teams.  We can't afford to ever 'come close'.  

We haven't been at 30% for a while, SD.  

What do you mean?

I mean the Sens chances at a post-season berth have been well below 30% for a while.

EDIT: I could be wrong but I would think we are well below 30 now.

Found this showing Ottawa with 29.7% probability. Assuming I'm looking at the correct column.

Of course that table shows us with a 0.3% probabillity of being the top seed and 1.4% probability of winning the Cup. I don't really understand why it less likely we get top seed than win the Cup, but whatever.

OK, this one has us at 15%, which is much more believable.

And this chart shows that Ottawa was at 31.7% at week 9 and has plummeted since then (we are now at week 11).

Those numbers are full of Dung. Right now - after that loss to Washington - I'd put us at 30%, but before that we were 4 points out, or even as close as 2 points out in the last week. Never mind those numbers, we're pretty close to out now, but give me a break.

You say we're pretty close to out, and that's exactly what those numbers show!

Prager was saying we were out for a while, I disagree.

I've been saying, since before the New Jersey game, that we're out. All that we're waiting for is SSF to say "you're right as usual" for final confirmation.

SpezDispensed wrote:Prager was saying we were out for a while, I disagree.

Prager was saying no such thing. You said we were 30% and I said we haven't been thirty for a while (turns out it's only about two weeks). But 30% is not 3%. If you were 15% two weeks ago and now are 30%, well, that's really encouraging. Unfortunately the Sens are the opposite of that -- they were 32% two weeks ago and are around 15% now.