tim1_2 wrote:3 of 4 points in these two games would be huge. We likely only need another 7 points or so to make the playoffs, but finishing 6th is where it's at!
7 points will give the Sens 55. Their record over the last 10 is 5-5-0, call it .500, or exactly what you need to get 7 in 7. And that includes a 5 game regulation losing streak, and a long road trip. After tonight 5 of their remaining 6 games are at home, where they have the third best record in the Conference.
The Islanders would need to get 9 points in 6 games to tie us (they have a ROW in hand as the first tie-breaker). They have their last home game tomorrow against Florida, then they go on a 5 game road trip to end the season, with stops in Toronto, Winnipeg, Carolina, Philly and Buffalo. Getting 9 points means going 4-1-1. That's going to be awfully tough.
The Rangers would need 10 points in 7 games. They have the same ROWs as the Sens, and we have them on goal differential. 10 points in 7 means something like 5-2-0 or 4-0-2. They may have more home games (3 at home, 4 on the road) but they are all split up -- a 2 game road trip, but the rest are all singles. They don't have to travel very far for most of them, but they are going to be shuttling back and forth almost every night. That's got to be tough. Their competition may not be very difficult (Philly, Florida x 2, Jersey x 2, Buffalo and Carolina) but going 4-1-2 is better than their 6-3-1 record over their last 10.
Winnipeg would need 11 points in 6 games, or 5-0-1. I don't see that happening with games against Montreal, Washington, the Islanders and Tampa. They cannot afford even a single regulation loss.
All in all, I think if the Sens get 7 points they will pretty much lock up 6th. 5 will be enough to make it to the post-season.
Their magic number, by the way, is 9. If they get 9 points then Winnipeg cannot catch them. Any combination of the Sens points won plus the Jets points lost adding up to 9 clinches a playoff spot.