Kessel Offer Sheet: Would you do it? (WITH A POLL)

asq2 wrote:

cas wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:I actually don't think Kovalchuk makes it to free agency. I think they come to a deal by December.

Its hard to say one way or the other at this point. It all depends on the development of their youth. If Kane impresses and makes it out of training camp; if Bogosian takes hold of that vacant #1 spot; if Pavelic or Lehtonen prove they can consistently mind that crease; if Little and Enstrom keep up their development.....

Just like the Sens season, ATL keeping Kovalchuk has too many ifs to be sure of anything...

I think this is the best team Kovalchuk has had around him since the first year after the lock-out.

The Thrashers went out and added Antropov and Kubina this off-season, Todd White just had a 73 point season, Bogosian might score 20 goals, Enstrom will be looking to bounce back after a sophomore slump, Kozlov's still there and Little scored 30 goals last season.

I think Kane could use more time in the Juniors, but if he does make it, they'll have a pretty nice top-6 with Kovalchuk, Antropov, Kozlov, Kane, White and Little, and a decent top-4 with Kubina, Hainsey, Bogosian and Enstrom.

If the goaltending can hold up, and I think it has the potential too, they could be pretty competitive.

Then factor in that they've given Kovalchuk the captaincy and I'm sure are prepared to offer him megamoney to stay, and I don't think it's an entirely foregone conclusion.

The Todd White season seems to be quite the aberration, so I'm not sure if he can get back up to the 70+ point plateau again. As for Bogosian, I would be sincerely shocked if he hit 20 goals...would take monstrous amounts of powerplay time and a ridiculous sophomore season. He might hit 40 points though with 12-15 goals.

We had a similar debate about Bogosian in the Draft Thread. I think this guy is primed to have a fantastic season and completely take control of Atlanta's PP - which has the potential to be very, very good.

SpezDispenser wrote:We had a similar debate about Bogosian in the Draft Thread. I think this guy is primed to have a fantastic season and completely take control of Atlanta's PP - which has the potential to be very, very good.

I, on the other hand, feel like its still a year too soon and he won't top 35 points

10-25-35 for what amounts to a rookie on a team like Atlanta is pretty damn good. He's also more of an all around defenseman than just an offensive force. He's an American Shea Weber... who put up 40 points in his second season on an, arguably, much better Nashville team.

cas wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:We had a similar debate about Bogosian in the Draft Thread. I think this guy is primed to have a fantastic season and completely take control of Atlanta's PP - which has the potential to be very, very good.

I, on the other hand, feel like its still a year too soon and he won't top 35 points

10-25-35 for what amounts to a rookie on a team like Atlanta is pretty damn good. He's also more of an all around defenseman than just an offensive force. He's an American Shea Weber... who put up 40 points in his second season on an, arguably, much better Nashville team.

He had 9 goals in 47 games for the Thrashers last season.

asq2 wrote:

cas wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:We had a similar debate about Bogosian in the Draft Thread. I think this guy is primed to have a fantastic season and completely take control of Atlanta's PP - which has the potential to be very, very good.

I, on the other hand, feel like its still a year too soon and he won't top 35 points

10-25-35 for what amounts to a rookie on a team like Atlanta is pretty damn good. He's also more of an all around defenseman than just an offensive force. He's an American Shea Weber... who put up 40 points in his second season on an, arguably, much better Nashville team.

He had 9 goals in 47 games for the Thrashers last season.

So maybe he'll put up 17-18-35

I just looked at his stats before reading this :^^^^: I was going off memory from watching him play last season...probably should have done some research before spouting off

I don't think he'll necessarily get more than 35 points either, but I think he has the potential to put up a number of goals.

Of course, there is always the possibility of a sophomore slump.

For some reason, he just doesn't seem like the type of player that is susceptible to a sophomore slump. Same goes for Stamkos.

Doughty, on the other hand...

Re: the offer sheet - my understanding is that at that level, any missing picks can be deferred to the next year's draft, but Rooney can correct me if I'm wrong.

In any case, it wouldn't be inconceivable to see the next shift in players' contracts be the "planned buyout" - imagine Kessel getting an offer sheet of 5/5/2/1, net cap hit 3.25. Then buyout after 2, so that there's 500K per year to be paid over next 4 years. Immediately re-sign to a 4 year 18M contract, and he's gotten 6 years at 5M per yr but cap hit is only 3.25 for two, then 5 for four. And you've stolen Kessel for far less than it would have otherwise taken.

It's similar to what happened with Alfie's contract.

I believe the rule you're thinking of is something to the effect of: If an offer sheet warranting two 1st round picks or more is put out, then the sheeted team has the right to select which of the following 2 draft years (i.e. the 1st 1st has to be for that year and they have the choice of which subsequent years) they wish to draw from

Acrobat wrote:Re: the offer sheet - my understanding is that at that level, any missing picks can be deferred to the next year's draft, but Rooney can correct me if I'm wrong.

In any case, it wouldn't be inconceivable to see the next shift in players' contracts be the "planned buyout" - imagine Kessel getting an offer sheet of 5/5/2/1, net cap hit 3.25. Then buyout after 2, so that there's 500K per year to be paid over next 4 years. Immediately re-sign to a 4 year 18M contract, and he's gotten 6 years at 5M per yr but cap hit is only 3.25 for two, then 5 for four. And you've stolen Kessel for far less than it would have otherwise taken.

It's similar to what happened with Alfie's contract.

Thats pretty clever. I'm pretty sure that type of thing is strictly prohibited though. The league would have grounds to challenge...

cas wrote:I believe the rule you're thinking of is something to the effect of: If an offer sheet warranting two 1st round picks or more is put out, then the sheeted team has the right to select which of the following 2 draft years (i.e. the 1st 1st has to be for that year and they have the choice of which subsequent years) they wish to draw from

All picks need to be your own and within the same year. TO needed there own 2nd back to make an RFA offer. Similar to TB last year when they tried to reacquire their 3rd from Pitts so they could make an offer on Meszaro's...Darn Pitts I now wish they had given it back...Could have had Cowan and Hedman in the ranks.

Acrobat wrote:Re: the offer sheet - my understanding is that at that level, any missing picks can be deferred to the next year's draft, but Rooney can correct me if I'm wrong.

In any case, it wouldn't be inconceivable to see the next shift in players' contracts be the "planned buyout" - imagine Kessel getting an offer sheet of 5/5/2/1, net cap hit 3.25. Then buyout after 2, so that there's 500K per year to be paid over next 4 years. Immediately re-sign to a 4 year 18M contract, and he's gotten 6 years at 5M per yr but cap hit is only 3.25 for two, then 5 for four. And you've stolen Kessel for far less than it would have otherwise taken.

It's similar to what happened with Alfie's contract.

Nope, it has to be the original picks for the next from the team making the offer sheet. That's why TB couldn't sign Meszaros to an offer sheet last year without first re-acquiring their pick from PIT.

Your other scenario doesn't make much sense, either. If you buyout a player, yeah, the REAL salary would be cheap, but you're still stuck with 2/3rds of the player's SALARY CAP figure spread over twice the remaining years on the deal. In the scenario you suggest, for instance, you'd have about $1 mil over the next four years counting against your cap.

Plus, a shrinking deal for a player of Kessel's caliber and age would certainly raise eyebrows over at the NHL -- especially if it was followed by a buyout in year 3. It would be a prime target for investigation.

Alfie's contract is a different beast altogether. We had to buyout the 3 option years remaining on his contract ($2.1 mil), which were a hold-over from the previous CBA. Anyway, if you mean that we're somehow getting some kind of break because Alfie's contract declines in the final years, that's not really true. He's going to be 40 years old at that point, after all.

I am hearing that the offer sheet could be for Brandon Dubinsky, not Kessel.

Dash wrote:I am hearing that the offer sheet could be for Brandon Dubinsky, not Kessel.

If he re-acquired his 2nd, wouldn't it be a 4.5+ million contract for Dubinsky? That's silly IMO.

SpezDispenser wrote:

Dash wrote:I am hearing that the offer sheet could be for Brandon Dubinsky, not Kessel.

If he re-acquired his 2nd, wouldn't it be a 4.5+ million contract for Dubinsky? That's silly IMO.

4.5+ is silly for Kessel too. Whatever happens next, someone will get overpaid.

So why are we assuming it's that high? According to the RFA Compensation table an offer up to just over $3M requires a 2nd. For Boston to match $3M they would have to clear $1.4M just to get to the cap ceiling. Much more likely they would need to clear $3M to leave injury reserves. They could replace Wheeler ($2.825 2-way) with a callup, which would leave them with about $900K in reserves -- not ideal, but doable. But that doesn't make their team any better, and it's hardly fair to Wheeler.

Would Burke do that out of spite and to weaken a divisional rival?

The Rangers would need to clear about $1.35M to match $3M for Dubinsky and leave injury reserves. Burying Brashear in the minors will only clear about $900K, assuming you replace him with a league-minimum player. Or go with a 20-man roster (no spares).

Neither situation would be impossible to overcome, but it will put the team (Boston or NYR) at a disadvantage. Does Burke care about making enemies?

Columbus and Buffalo have the cap space to absorb $3M raises to Svitov and Stafford (respectively), and I don't see any other RFAs worth any hard work.

Still, perhaps forcing Boston to send Wheeler to the minors is the kind of truculence that Burke expects from his players, and he's just leading by example. Piss off your opposition, while at the same time weakening them, if only a little. Makes about as much sense as offering Kessel $5M *and* losing all those picks.

So why are we assuming it's that high? According to the RFA Compensation table an offer up to just over $3M requires a 2nd. For Boston to match $3M they would have to clear $1.4M just to get to the cap ceiling. Much more likely they would need to clear $3M to leave injury reserves. They could replace Wheeler ($2.825 2-way) with a callup, which would leave them with about $900K in reserves -- not ideal, but doable. But that doesn't make their team any better, and it's hardly fair to Wheeler.

Would Burke do that out of spite and to weaken a divisional rival?

The Rangers would need to clear about $1.35M to match $3M for Dubinsky and leave injury reserves. Burying Brashear in the minors will only clear about $900K, assuming you replace him with a league-minimum player. Or go with a 20-man roster (no spares).

Neither situation would be impossible to overcome, but it will put the team (Boston or NYR) at a disadvantage. Does Burke care about making enemies?

Columbus and Buffalo have the cap space to absorb $3M raises to Svitov and Stafford (respectively), and I don't see any other RFAs worth any hard work.

Still, perhaps forcing Boston to send Wheeler to the minors is the kind of truculence that Burke expects from his players, and he's just leading by example. Piss off your opposition, while at the same time weakening them, if only a little. Makes about as much sense as offering Kessel $5M *and* losing all those picks.

wprager wrote:So why are we assuming it's that high? According to the RFA Compensation table an offer up to just over $3M requires a 2nd. For Boston to match $3M they would have to clear $1.4M just to get to the cap ceiling. Much more likely they would need to clear $3M to leave injury reserves. They could replace Wheeler ($2.825 2-way) with a callup, which would leave them with about $900K in reserves -- not ideal, but doable. But that doesn't make their team any better, and it's hardly fair to Wheeler.

Would Burke do that out of spite and to weaken a divisional rival?

The Rangers would need to clear about $1.35M to match $3M for Dubinsky and leave injury reserves. Burying Brashear in the minors will only clear about $900K, assuming you replace him with a league-minimum player. Or go with a 20-man roster (no spares).

Neither situation would be impossible to overcome, but it will put the team (Boston or NYR) at a disadvantage. Does Burke care about making enemies?

Columbus and Buffalo have the cap space to absorb $3M raises to Svitov and Stafford (respectively), and I don't see any other RFAs worth any hard work.

Still, perhaps forcing Boston to send Wheeler to the minors is the kind of truculence that Burke expects from his players, and he's just leading by example. Piss off your opposition, while at the same time weakening them, if only a little. Makes about as much sense as offering Kessel $5M *and* losing all those picks.

That is funny stuff.