GAME DAY: Ottawa Senators @ New York Rangers - 7:00pm ET - Sun. March 22nd, 2009

According to www.sportsclubstats.com - the win by the Sens dropped the chances of NYR making the playoffs substantially (still 77.8%, but could have been 91%). On the other hand, Ottawa's chance is now at an immense 1.0%!

Of course a month ago, Ottawa's chance was about 0.1%, so that flicker of hope is strengthening, not fading...

dennycrane wrote:The Sens only have one game in the next four nights (at Carolina). Sadly, they'll be 9 or 10 back by then. Still, they have gone further than I thought they could. The team has to finish this road trip with 10 of 12. Good start tonight. The Sens weren't great, but they were good enough.

Hey, do you have William Shatner's 'psychedelic album'...the one where he sings "Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds"?

What I like about Clouston is that he doesn't care what people thinks he can and can't do.

His team seems to be getting that attitude from him.

Acrobat wrote:According to www.sportsclubstats.com - the win by the Sens dropped the chances of NYR making the playoffs substantially (still 77.8%, but could have been 91%). On the other hand, Ottawa's chance is now at an immense 1.0%!

Of course a month ago, Ottawa's chance was about 0.1%, so that flicker of hope is strengthening, not fading...

The whole ONE percent? I see....I'm totally on board now!

Playing the spoiler, except against the Habs, isn't enough to get me to hope for useless wins.

dennycrane wrote:The Sens only have one game in the next four nights (at Carolina). Sadly, they'll be 9 or 10 back by then. Still, they have gone further than I thought they could. The team has to finish this road trip with 10 of 12. Good start tonight. The Sens weren't great, but they were good enough.

The best teams are those who win by being "good enough" when they aren't at their best.

Even though the Rags aren't an elite team, I am encouraged by this change.

Hey Hem, if the Sens can make up the three and half games on the Habs, do you think I can catch up to you as Top Ten poster on GM Hockey?
:pirat:

davetherave wrote:Hey Hem, if the Sens can make up the three and half games on the Habs, do you think I can catch up to you as Top Ten poster on GM Hockey?
:pirat:

You shouldn't have much problem. I'm not spending too much time here lately. Am I even in the top 10? lol

hemlock wrote:

davetherave wrote:Hey Hem, if the Sens can make up the three and half games on the Habs, do you think I can catch up to you as Top Ten poster on GM Hockey?
:pirat:

You shouldn't have much problem. I'm not spending too much time here lately. Am I even in the top 10? lol

You are indeed in this elite group...

davetherave wrote:

hemlock wrote:

davetherave wrote:Hey Hem, if the Sens can make up the three and half games on the Habs, do you think I can catch up to you as Top Ten poster on GM Hockey?
:pirat:

You shouldn't have much problem. I'm not spending too much time here lately. Am I even in the top 10? lol

You are indeed in this elite group...

Ahh, I am. You'll be there soon enough

hemlock wrote:

davetherave wrote:

hemlock wrote:

davetherave wrote:Hey Hem, if the Sens can make up the three and half games on the Habs, do you think I can catch up to you as Top Ten poster on GM Hockey?
:pirat:

You shouldn't have much problem. I'm not spending too much time here lately. Am I even in the top 10? lol

You are indeed in this elite group...

Ahh, I am. You'll be there soon enough

It will be a privilege should I attain this lofty goal 8)

Not should....when

davetherave wrote:It will be a privilege should I attain this lofty goal 8)

I'd say it's not too far off. Your PPD rate is second only to 504Heater's.

asq2 wrote:

davetherave wrote:It will be a privilege should I attain this lofty goal 8)

I'd say it's not too far off. Your PPD rate is second only to 504Heater's.

You know what they say..."The more you shoot, the more chances you score" LOL

asq2 wrote:

davetherave wrote:It will be a privilege should I attain this lofty goal 8)

I'd say it's not too far off. Your PPD rate is second only to 504Heater's.

Isn't SF71 right up there too? When I check the site quickly in the morning it's not unusual for him to have the last post in 8-10 threads. :^^^:

hemlock wrote:

asq2 wrote:

davetherave wrote:It will be a privilege should I attain this lofty goal 8)

I'd say it's not too far off. Your PPD rate is second only to 504Heater's.

Isn't SF71 right up there too? When I check the site quickly in the morning it's not unusual for him to have the last post in 8-10 threads. :^^^:

Not even half of DTO's. 8)

hemlock wrote:

Acrobat wrote:According to www.sportsclubstats.com - the win by the Sens dropped the chances of NYR making the playoffs substantially (still 77.8%, but could have been 91%). On the other hand, Ottawa's chance is now at an immense 1.0%!

Of course a month ago, Ottawa's chance was about 0.1%, so that flicker of hope is strengthening, not fading...

The whole ONE percent? I see....I'm totally on board now!

Playing the spoiler, except against the Habs, isn't enough to get me to hope for useless wins.

Thing is (and again, this is based on too many assumptions to be accurate), if teams continue to play at their current pace, Ottawa has moved themselves into the middle of the first round, around about the 15-17 range. That's right about where Columbus should end up.

Using a different, and likely simpler, algorithm than that website results in Montreal projecting to 88-89 pts (10th), Florida 89-91 pts (9th), and Ottawa 90-93 pts (8th). Rangers are out of range of all at 95-98 pts (7th), and Buffalo should fall to 11th, with 82-85pts.

So suddenly, it's not inconceivable. Admittedly not likely though, as lots of stars and planets have to align just so.

Hedman, Cowan, et al are out of the question now. It's become a question of hoping Ellis falls or praying MPS does, otherwise maybe looking for Kassian, or Josefson, or the like.

And yes, I'm a stats geek.

EDIT: correcting the math, 90-93 pts is incorrect; should be 88-91 (8th), with Florida also labeled at 8th. It could be very tight, depending on games between Ottawa, Florida, and Montreal

davetherave wrote:

dennycrane wrote:The Sens only have one game in the next four nights (at Carolina). Sadly, they'll be 9 or 10 back by then. Still, they have gone further than I thought they could. The team has to finish this road trip with 10 of 12. Good start tonight. The Sens weren't great, but they were good enough.

Hey, do you have William Shatner's 'psychedelic album'...the one where he sings "Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds"?

What I like about Clouston is that he doesn't care what people thinks he can and can't do.

His team seems to be getting that attitude from him.

I do have "The Transformed Man". The version of Lucy in the Sky with Diamond is great, but Mr. Tambourine Man is better.

And nothing beats William Shatner's version of Rocket Man: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvQwXOCKNLY.

Shatner turns 78 today.

Acrobat wrote:

dennycrane wrote:The Sens only have one game in the next four nights (at Carolina). Sadly, they'll be 9 or 10 back by then. Still, they have gone further than I thought they could. The team has to finish this road trip with 10 of 12. Good start tonight. The Sens weren't great, but they were good enough.

The best teams are those who win by being "good enough" when they aren't at their best.

Even though the Rags aren't an elite team, I am encouraged by this change.

I wholeheartedly agree. The best teams find ways to win when they are not firing on all cylinders.

The game March 31st against Florida could be the most exciting game we've seen in a long time in terms of playoff implications.

dennycrane wrote:

davetherave wrote:

dennycrane wrote:The Sens only have one game in the next four nights (at Carolina). Sadly, they'll be 9 or 10 back by then. Still, they have gone further than I thought they could. The team has to finish this road trip with 10 of 12. Good start tonight. The Sens weren't great, but they were good enough.

Hey, do you have William Shatner's 'psychedelic album'...the one where he sings "Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds"?

What I like about Clouston is that he doesn't care what people thinks he can and can't do.

His team seems to be getting that attitude from him.

I do have "The Transformed Man". The version of Lucy in the Sky with Diamond is great, but Mr. Tambourine Man is better.

And nothing beats William Shatner's version of Rocket Man: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvQwXOCKNLY.

Shatner turns 78 today.

INCREDIBLY cool...proof that you never get old...unless you give up hope.