Prospecting Prospect - End of Season 18/19

Lagoon wrote:We have no business selecting him at 3 or 5.

That’s the last I will say. October is a long way away and I’ve watched all the games and video I can until European leagues start up again.

So...you know something all the pro scouts dont? Including, I assume, Ottawa's who are one of the best. We'll see what happens come October, but I think you're mistaken on this player.

Ev wrote:So now he’s not a good player? But you still rank him top 8. I think the opinions of scouts are making it clear they think he will be a star in the NHL and clearly separate him from the rest of the pack after Byfield. Not saying you aren’t entitled to your opinion, but I think you’re denying reality a little bit because there’s a strong chance he goes #2.

The scouts were all on the same page about Yakupov also.
Sometimes groupthink takes over.

I also would rather stay away from him at 3rd but would concede to take him at 5th (if Rossi is off the board).

i just know what's gonna happen if Byfield is taken at 2nd. As much as i have faith in the scouting staff I really think the sens tend to fall in love with certain players for better or worse. it's given us some great picks in the past and some not so great also.

I'd rather take Drysdale over Stutzle. and that's saying a lot. We may not need a Drysdale but he's got #1,2 Dman written all over him.

Flo The Action wrote:

Ev wrote:So now he’s not a good player? But you still rank him top 8. I think the opinions of scouts are making it clear they think he will be a star in the NHL and clearly separate him from the rest of the pack after Byfield. Not saying you aren’t entitled to your opinion, but I think you’re denying reality a little bit because there’s a strong chance he goes #2.

The scouts were all on the same page about Yakupov also.
Sometimes groupthink takes over.

I also would rather stay away from him at 3rd but would concede to take him at 5th (if Rossi is off the board).

i just know what's gonna happen if Byfield is taken at 2nd. As much as i have faith in the scouting staff I really think the sens tend to fall in love with certain players for better or worse. it's given us some great picks in the past and some not so great also.

I'd rather take Drysdale over Stutzle. and that's saying a lot. We may not need a Drysdale but he's got #1,2 Dman written all over him.

Yakupov was almost a decade ago, don't forget. Times have changed. Scouts are watching all of these guys - and closely. It's also possible some teams are saying the same things about him with no intention of taking him.

We need Drysdale big time. It's a fool's game to hope that JBD and Thomson and Brannstrom all work out to top 4 levels, we need a big dude in the top 2 - and I actually think it's so serious, we should look at other options if we can't get Drysdale.

From what I've seen of Stutzle, he looks like the Duchene that played in Ottawa. Amazing on his skates, oddly hard to knock down or off the puck, incredible hands, speed. He might have some flaws, but he's the real deal IMO. 100+ point guy in the NHL going forward.

Here are the hockey writers on him:

https://thehockeywriters.com/tim-stutzle-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

And Dobber:

https://dobberprospects.com/player/tim-stutzle/

Note that he projects him as a 95 point player.

Flo The Action wrote:

Ev wrote:So now he’s not a good player? But you still rank him top 8. I think the opinions of scouts are making it clear they think he will be a star in the NHL and clearly separate him from the rest of the pack after Byfield. Not saying you aren’t entitled to your opinion, but I think you’re denying reality a little bit because there’s a strong chance he goes #2.

The scouts were all on the same page about Yakupov also.
Sometimes groupthink takes over.

I also would rather stay away from him at 3rd but would concede to take him at 5th (if Rossi is off the board).

i just know what's gonna happen if Byfield is taken at 2nd. As much as i have faith in the scouting staff I really think the sens tend to fall in love with certain players for better or worse. it's given us some great picks in the past and some not so great also.

I'd rather take Drysdale over Stutzle. and that's saying a lot. We may not need a Drysdale but he's got #1,2 Dman written all over him.

I don't see how yak is relevant. He didn't work out, but that doesn't mean he wasn't the obvious #1 pick.

We will be able to get drsydale at 5

PTFlea wrote:And Dobber:

https://dobberprospects.com/player/tim-stutzle/

Note that he projects him as a 95 point player.

No he doesn’t.

Ev wrote:So now he’s not a good player? But you still rank him top 8. I think the opinions of scouts are making it clear they think he will be a star in the NHL and clearly separate him from the rest of the pack after Byfield. Not saying you aren’t entitled to your opinion, but I think you’re denying reality a little bit because there’s a strong chance he goes #2.

When did I say he wouldn’t be a good player? I’ve actually said he will be a star.

PTFlea wrote:

Lagoon wrote:We have no business selecting him at 3 or 5.

That’s the last I will say. October is a long way away and I’ve watched all the games and video I can until European leagues start up again.

So...you know something all the pro scouts dont?  Including, I assume, Ottawa's who are one of the best.  We'll see what happens come October, but I think you're mistaken on this player.

PTFlea wrote:Here are the hockey writers on him:

https://thehockeywriters.com/tim-stutzle-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

PTFlea wrote:And Dobber:

https://dobberprospects.com/player/tim-stutzle/

Note that he projects him as a 95 point player.

I’m well aware of all rankings. Doesn’t mean I agree with them and yes, I believe in mine and others in the business that have ranked Stutzle where I have publicly stated on here.

PTFlea wrote:

Lagoon wrote:We have no business selecting him at 3 or 5.

That’s the last I will say. October is a long way away and I’ve watched all the games and video I can until European leagues start up again.

So...you know something all the pro scouts dont?  Including, I assume, Ottawa's who are one of the best.  We'll see what happens come October, but I think you're mistaken on this player.

Yes, everyone has done their work and formed their own opinion.

And October will prove nothing. I haven’t done my mock yet. Everything I have said has been ranked by BPA. Don’t confuse the two.

PTFlea wrote:

Flo The Action wrote:

Ev wrote:So now he’s not a good player? But you still rank him top 8. I think the opinions of scouts are making it clear they think he will be a star in the NHL and clearly separate him from the rest of the pack after Byfield. Not saying you aren’t entitled to your opinion, but I think you’re denying reality a little bit because there’s a strong chance he goes #2.

The scouts were all on the same page about Yakupov also.
Sometimes groupthink takes over.

I also would rather stay away from him at 3rd but would concede to take him at 5th (if Rossi is off the board).

i just know what's gonna happen if Byfield is taken at 2nd. As much as i have faith in the scouting staff I really think the sens tend to fall in love with certain players for better or worse. it's given us some great picks in the past and some not so great also.

I'd rather take Drysdale over Stutzle. and that's saying a lot. We may not need a Drysdale but he's got #1,2 Dman written all over him.

Yakupov was almost a decade ago, don't forget.  Times have changed.   Scouts are watching all of these guys - and closely.  It's also possible some teams are saying the same things about him with no intention of taking him.

We need Drysdale big time.  It's a fool's game to hope that JBD and Thomson and Brannstrom all work out to top 4 levels, we need a big dude in the top 2 - and I actually think it's so serious, we should look at other options if we can't get Drysdale.

From what I've seen of Stutzle, he looks like the Duchene that played in Ottawa.  Amazing on his skates, oddly hard to knock down or off the puck, incredible hands, speed.  He might have some flaws, but he's the real deal IMO.  100+ point guy in the NHL going forward.

I've heard Button make the comparison to Duchene IRRC. maybe but there's plenty about his game that isn't where it should be to wind up like Duchene.

again, I'm no expert and as much as I've heard some very good things about Stutzle it's just that there are guys I'd rather we take before him.

it's interesting to talk about Drysdale and it's a point that should be made. I'm also not sold on JBD, Thomson or Brannstrom being legit guys you want on the 1st line. do I think they are top 4 guys? Absolutely. but with a guy like Drysdale on the 1st pairing in 3 years with Chabot would be ridiculous. is it our most important need going forward? no. we need a #1 C in a big way.

whether we can get that guy in Byfield with the 3rd or with Rossi with the 5th remains to be seen.

if Byfield is taken with the 2nd then I'm behind grabbing Drysdale with the 3rd and Rossi with the 5th.
but I also think we'll be in a situation to grab some great Dman next year also. But Dmen develop slower so there's an argument to be made for getting one now.

whatever we do we are getting two amazing top prospects in the first round. and probably another one in the mid to late first.

PTFlea wrote:

Lagoon wrote:We have no business selecting him at 3 or 5.

That’s the last I will say. October is a long way away and I’ve watched all the games and video I can until European leagues start up again.

So...you know something all the pro scouts dont?  Including, I assume, Ottawa's who are one of the best.  We'll see what happens come October, but I think you're mistaken on this player.

No, not October. I fully expect him to go top-three but to decide whether he should have gone early or out of the top-5 (or top-7) will take a little bit longer. Like 2 years or more.

I am intrigued by what Lagoon is saying. There are draft busts almost every year (anyone taken in the 1st round that does not become a full time NHLer while players from later rounds do, is a bit of a bust). Top-5 busts are more rare but still do happen. So all those "professional" talent scouts are not necessarily better than so,e of us. There is no college or university degree to teach you how to analyze 17 year olds and project where they will be in 3-5 years. It's just experience and attention to detail (I don't think there are any scouts out there who have this one extra tool/trick they use to make them better than everyone else).

And, in fact, a hockey fan could very well spot a bust quicker than a paid scout for one simple reason: he could be only looking at the top-10 players and not the top 700.

So, we'll see in a couple years if Lagoon was right.

I don’t think he will bust, but if he goes earlier than 8, my opinion is there will 7 better players than him and probably even more because some players like Lundell, Jarvis, Quinn, Amirov, Bordeleau, Gunler, Lapierre and Niederbach will actually hit their upside.

Just imagine what Lundell could be if he starts using his shot and scoring goals. That’s Bergeron.

Stutzle has his flaws and lots of them guys. Not watching film and ignoring them isn’t going to make them go away.

wprager wrote:

PTFlea wrote:

Lagoon wrote:We have no business selecting him at 3 or 5.

That’s the last I will say. October is a long way away and I’ve watched all the games and video I can until European leagues start up again.

So...you know something all the pro scouts dont?  Including, I assume, Ottawa's who are one of the best.  We'll see what happens come October, but I think you're mistaken on this player.

No, not October.  I fully expect him to go top-three but to decide whether he should have gone early or out of the top-5 (or top-7) will take a little bit longer.  Like 2 years or more.

I am intrigued by what Lagoon is saying.  There are draft busts almost every year (anyone taken in the 1st round that does not become a full time NHLer while players from later rounds do, is a bit of a bust).  Top-5 busts are more rare but still do happen.  So all those "professional" talent scouts are not necessarily better than so,e of us. There is no college or university degree to teach you how to analyze 17 year olds and project where they will be in 3-5 years.  It's just experience and attention to detail (I don't think there are any scouts out there who have this one extra tool/trick they use to make them better than everyone else).

And, in fact, a hockey fan could very well spot a bust quicker than a paid scout for one simple reason: he could be only looking at the top-10 players and not the top 700.

So, we'll see in a couple years if Lagoon was right.

Maybe, but you screw up a top 5 pick and you're toast as a professional and they know what they're looking for more so than any one of us. In the end, it's still a risk, but if in October he goes for Ottawa at 3, you know they've done their homework and you know that they know they'll be judged on the pick for years to come.

I genuinely don't understand what is a negative about Stutzle. He backchecks like a friend, he's best in class passer, he's a decent fore checker, good shot when he uses it. Wins puck battles.

He watches his man from time to time apparently, but that's in a man's league. He'll have time to iron that out.

What are the negatives you've seen?