Are there still believers out there?

I know this is just rubbing it in but I wonder if there are actually still fans our there that believe the Leafs have a legitimate shot at a playoff spot this season?

At the beginning of the season the "experts" predicted the Leafs to come close and to be ahead of the Senators for whatever that's worth. I personally felt Ottawa would make it in 7th and Toronto in 13th (Check it out here) - and so far so good as Ottawa is currently in 6th and Toronto is in 14th in the East. Sure Toronto got more toughness and grit but they didn't do much to address their goaltending and the loss of players on offense.

Just so you all know the Leafs now need to have an approximately .671 winning percentage for the last 41 games of their season to hit 92 points which seems to be the bare minimum they need to get in based on the numbers from the East since the lockout.

Edit: Only New Jersey, Chicago, San Jose and Washington have a better winning percentage than what Toronto needs from here on out.

Last year we needed a winning percentage of something like that at a similar point in the season. I seem to remember quite a few "believers" at that time.

The Leafs have been getting pretty good goaltending recently and Kessel has definitely helped. The Sens (last year) had no such additions. Elliott did his best but there was no scoring help.

So, while I wouldn't want you to label me a "believer" I'll say that the Leafs have a better chance than the Sens did last year. Still not enough, IMO, but they have a chance.

wprager wrote:Last year we needed a winning percentage of something like that at a similar point in the season. I seem to remember quite a few "believers" at that time.

The Leafs have been getting pretty good goaltending recently and Kessel has definitely helped. The Sens (last year) had no such additions. Elliott did his best but there was no scoring help.

So, while I wouldn't want you to label me a "believer" I'll say that the Leafs have a better chance than the Sens did last year. Still not enough, IMO, but they have a chance.

There were some believers in the Sens last year for sure. The big change for the Sens last year was the coach and he had an immediate impact - It was just a matter of too little too late. Some improved goaltending and Kessel doesn't quite equate IMO. BTW I was optimistic last season but I certainly wasn't blindly believing the Sens would make the playoffs last season.

Kessel has given this team the injection of adrenaline it needed, almost an indentity. For those who dismissed Kessel as Savard's shooter who would do nothing without him, how you like him now?

I think Toskala gets his game on a better level, Gustafsson gives him the push required. Even if ol' Vesa doesn't get it going, Gus is plenty good enough to take over the lion's share of goaltending duties.

I predict 8th or 9th, either in the playoffs by a hair, or just missed the playoffs by a hair

I don't think they have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. I won't guarantee that they don't pass the Sens by the end of the season, but no chance at the playoffs.

Beedub,

Really 8th or 9th? you really believe that Toronto will out perform the Rangers, Flyers, Lightning and Thrashers? Really? Based on the current trends if Toronto has a .622 winning percentage from here on out they will have around 88 points and will have less than a 50% chance of making it.

Further add to the picture that they still have to play

Bruins 3 times
Sabres 2 times
Rangers 2 times
Penguins 2 times
Devils 3 times
Sharks, Blues, Kings, Canucks, Flames, and Capitals.

I'd say your math is off.

The problem that the Leafs have right now is that in front of them are three or four teams who haven't been playing well either.

Can the Leafs play that much better than the teams in front of them that they would get in?

Will the Leafs have a better second half record than the Flyers, Thrashers, Rangers, Bolts, Panthers and Islanders?

beedub wrote:Kessel has given this team the injection of adrenaline it needed, almost an indentity. For those who dismissed Kessel as Savard's shooter who would do nothing without him, how you like him now?

I think Toskala gets his game on a better level, Gustafsson gives him the push required. Even if ol' Vesa doesn't get it going, Gus is plenty good enough to take over the lion's share of goaltending duties.

I predict 8th or 9th, either in the playoffs by a hair, or just missed the playoffs by a hair

8th or 9th is a tall order. They have to play at a .670 winning percentage from here on out to even have a chance at 8th. They need to play like St. Louis did last year at the end of the season to have a hope. Even 9th is a stretch.

Losing to the Oilers last night doesn't make it any easier, does it? The Leafs are one injury away from falling behind. Right now they are playing about the same as the Leafs, maybe a little better. But while the Sens are expecting a large portion of their lineup to come back after the Olympics, for the Leafs it's as good as it gets.

For a while, there, the Leafs were doing very well, but it seems that that was a hot streak and not a sustainable pace.

I still think they have a better chance than the Sens did at roughly this time last year.

wprager wrote:Losing to the Oilers last night doesn't make it any easier, does it? The Leafs are one injury away from falling behind. Right now they are playing about the same as the Leafs, maybe a little better. But while the Sens are expecting a large portion of their lineup to come back after the Olympics, for the Leafs it's as good as it gets.

For a while, there, the Leafs were doing very well, but it seems that that was a hot streak and not a sustainable pace.

I still think they have a better chance than the Sens did at roughly this time last year.

They might only because of the unexpected fall off of a couple of teams (notably the Flyers and Rangers). Consider that the Bolts, Islanders, Thrashers and Panthers are all in the mix and it seems extremely unlikely that the Leafs can make it in.

Not a great chance because of the beginning to their season.

Can we all agree that once the Leafs hit a required winning percentage of over 700 that they are done for or do they actually have to wait for the math to catch up to them before the dreamers stop believing?

How about this? As Prager said last year about the Sens: IF they make it in they will be one of the hottest teams in the league and could upset the top seed.

PKC wrote:

wprager wrote:Losing to the Oilers last night doesn't make it any easier, does it? The Leafs are one injury away from falling behind. Right now they are playing about the same as the Leafs, maybe a little better. But while the Sens are expecting a large portion of their lineup to come back after the Olympics, for the Leafs it's as good as it gets.

For a while, there, the Leafs were doing very well, but it seems that that was a hot streak and not a sustainable pace.

I still think they have a better chance than the Sens did at roughly this time last year.

They might only because of the unexpected fall off of a couple of teams (notably the Flyers and Rangers). Consider that the Bolts, Islanders, Thrashers and Panthers are all in the mix and it seems extremely unlikely that the Leafs can make it in.

I actually thought of adding something very similar. The East has a lot of teams really struggling.

Cap'n Clutch wrote:Can we all agree that once the Leafs hit a required winning percentage of over 700 that they are done for or do they actually have to wait for the math to catch up to them before the dreamers stop believing?

How about this? As Prager said last year about the Sens: IF they make it in they will be one of the hottest teams in the league and could upset the top seed.

That would be scary, eh? But given past history they will finish 9-10. Miss the playoffs and the lottery. Not that they care much about their next couple of first round picks.

Hmm, I wonder if this makes Boston play the Leafs any harder?

Well some *cough* beedub *cough* would have you believe that Kessel, The Monster and Toskala can carry this team into the playoffs so look out.