Top Fantasy Goalie Pick

I like:
Nabby
King Henry
Luongo

I choose goalies that I know will play a majority of the games, and as he said last year, if Henrik had his way he'd play all 82 games.

DashRiprock wrote:I like:
Nabby
King Henry
Luongo

I choose goalies that I know will play a majority of the games, and as he said last year, if Henrik had his way he'd play all 82 games.

And, he would promptly lose half of them.

PKC wrote:I expect Tomas Vokoun to have a really nice year. Perhaps top 3 in the league for goaltenders.

*cough* I just choked on my brew.

Vokoun? The goalie for the Florida Panthers? Top 3 in the LEAGUE?

I need to play fantasy hockey with you, my friend. I wouldn't touch Vokoun in a fantasy league, period. Maybe if missed out on all the goalies and felt like gambling with on of my my last picks, I suppose, but not otherwise.

That's not a commentary on Vokoun, who I think is a very good goalie. It's just that he plays for an awful team and his peripherals (GAA, SV%, etc.) are awful as a result. Heck, even Luongo was barely worth owning in regular annual pools during all this time in Florida. That team is the touch of death to a fantasy goalie.

rooneypoo wrote:

PKC wrote:I expect Tomas Vokoun to have a really nice year. Perhaps top 3 in the league for goaltenders.

*cough* I just choked on my brew.

Vokoun? The goalie for the Florida Panthers? Top 3 in the LEAGUE?

I need to play fantasy hockey with you, my friend. I wouldn't touch Vokoun in a fantasy league, period. Maybe if missed out on all the goalies and felt like gambling with on of my my last picks, I suppose, but not otherwise.

That's not a commentary on Vokoun, who I think is a very good goalie. It's just that he plays for an awful team and his peripherals (GAA, SV%, etc.) are awful as a result. Heck, even Luongo was barely worth owning in regular annual pools during all this time in Florida. That team is the touch of death to a fantasy goalie.

Perhaps that would have been the case last year when their defense was average and their team defense was below average. But they have seriously upgraded that blue line, brought in a coach well-known for his defensive play and Vokoun is a hell of a capable goalie. I think a great year for Vokoun will land him top 3 for goaltenders, I think he'll be around the 3-7 range for goalies this year.

Vokoun i think could be in the top three, but I wouldn't waste my first goalie pick on him... Too much potential for a downfall... I wouldn't mind having him as a backup though... the upside would be huge, but to much downside to take him on potential...

PKC wrote:

Perhaps that would have been the case last year when their defense was average and their team defense was below average. But they have seriously upgraded that blue line, brought in a coach well-known for his defensive play and Vokoun is a hell of a capable goalie. I think a great year for Vokoun will land him top 3 for goaltenders, I think he'll be around the 3-7 range for goalies this year.

I would be utterly shocked to see Vokoun anywhere near the top 10 in terms of fantasy performance (which usually consists of something like, i.e., a minimum of 30-35 Wins, a SA% of .910 or better, a GAA of 2.50 or lower, and something like 5-7 shutouts). He's a great goalie, but Florida is an awful team. Boynton and Ballard are capable defenders, but I don't think that changes the situation as radically as you're suggesting. Remember that this team is going to have to put McCabe on the ice on a regular basis now too.

Dobber has Vokoun penciled in for 26 wins and 2 shutouts, or the 29th best goalie to draft over all -- which gives him about as much fantasy relevance this year as Budaj, Toskala, Lehtonen, Garon, Smith, and Ellis, all guys Dobber places in the same league this year with Vokoun. I heartily agree with that assessment.

In a standard 10 team, 17 man draft, Vokoun should not be taken in the 1st 5 rounds. I personally wouldn't touch him until the 10th -- and I'd be picking him up as a third goalie whom I'd hope to trade away to some sucker who thinks he's going to finish in the top 3 among goalies this year.

Vokun was #4 overall for goalies last year in fantasy points in my league. The reason for this was the amount of saves he made. He had the most saves last year at 2033, the next goalie had 1921 (Brodeur). In my league goalie's were rewarded for every save and every win. NO SVP or GAA although each GA was minus 1 point. He was a real steal for the owner who got him around the 6th or 7th round.

So Luongo must have been huge in his days with Florida in that kind of pool.

rooneypoo wrote:
I would be utterly shocked to see Vokoun anywhere near the top 10 in terms of fantasy performance (which usually consists of something like, i.e., a minimum of 30-35 Wins, a SA% of .910 or better, a GAA of 2.50 or lower, and something like 5-7 shutouts). He's a great goalie, but Florida is an awful team. Boynton and Ballard are capable defenders, but I don't think that changes the situation as radically as you're suggesting. Remember that this team is going to have to put McCabe on the ice on a regular basis now too.

Dobber has Vokoun penciled in for 26 wins and 2 shutouts, or the 29th best goalie to draft over all -- which gives him about as much fantasy relevance this year as Budaj, Toskala, Lehtonen, Garon, Smith, and Ellis, all guys Dobber places in the same league this year with Vokoun. I heartily agree with that assessment.

In a standard 10 team, 17 man draft, Vokoun should not be taken in the 1st 5 rounds. I personally wouldn't touch him until the 10th -- and I'd be picking him up as a third goalie whom I'd hope to trade away to some sucker who thinks he's going to finish in the top 3 among goalies this year.

While I agree that Vokoun is probably not a first-round goalie pick, I am questioning putting so mcu faith in Dobber. He used to be the best (at least he claimed that and had numbers to back himself up) but he's really slipped in the last couple of years. The UPP (Ulitmate Pool Preview -- see HockeyTradeRumors) has some stats showing poolie accuracy (percentage of projections that were spot-on, within 5, within 10 etc.) and Dobber certainly was not the best last year. And although I don't have the figures from the year before, I do have some vague recollections of going with some picks of his that really did not pan out at all.

AlfieforPM wrote:Vokun was #4 overall for goalies last year in fantasy points in my league. The reason for this was the amount of saves he made. He had the most saves last year at 2033, the next goalie had 1921 (Brodeur). In my league goalie's were rewarded for every save and every win. NO SVP or GAA although each GA was minus 1 point. He was a real steal for the owner who got him around the 6th or 7th round.

Ah.

Every league I have ever played in weighed goalies according to 4-5 of the following categories: Wins, Shutouts, Goals against average, Save percentage, and Saves. Take any 4 of those categories and drop Vokoun into the middle of them, and he'd be a disastrous addition to your line up. Playing on a crappy team, he won't get 30 wins and shutouts will be few, and losing teams tend to get scored on a lot, and that's bad for the GAA. While he might provide decent SV% numbers on some nights and good SV numbers generally, whatever gains he makes in those categories for you, he more than gives up again in the other categories.

That's a strange league that you're in that weighs saves so heavily that they could make Vokoun a fantasy-relevant goalie. Standard Yahoo! league scoring categories for goalies are, after all, W, GAA, and SVs. In that context, he does your team more harm than good.

Anyway, especially outside the context of fantasy, there's no way that Vokoun figures in the top 3 for NHL -- unless the ONLY category being counting is pucks faced, which is usually the sign of a great goalie on a crappy team with a porous defence.

wprager wrote:

While I agree that Vokoun is probably not a first-round goalie pick, I am questioning putting so mcu faith in Dobber. He used to be the best (at least he claimed that and had numbers to back himself up) but he's really slipped in the last couple of years. The UPP (Ulitmate Pool Preview -- see HockeyTradeRumors) has some stats showing poolie accuracy (percentage of projections that were spot-on, within 5, within 10 etc.) and Dobber certainly was not the best last year. And although I don't have the figures from the year before, I do have some vague recollections of going with some picks of his that really did not pan out at all.

Dobber is not my be-all and end-all authority for my position here, and it's a misreading (at best) to suggest that I was citing him in that way. In the post you're responding to, I state my opinion clearly and give my reasons -- and then, afterwards, I bring in an authority to second that opinion. That is, I don't take my opinion from Dobber -- I merely find that his agrees with my on this point, and I cite him as a well-respected authority on things fantasy hockey related. The point stands without or without Dobber's seconding.

I've been a Dobber follower for a couple of years. He is one of the most respected fantasy commentators out there. I'm not at all surprised to learn that all his projections are not spot on -- I would frankly be a little scared if he could predict these things precisely -- but, in general, he provides a lot of good info that's always helped me through the years. But to each his own.

rooneypoo wrote:Dobber is not my be-all and end-all authority for my position here, and it's a misreading (at best) to suggest that I was citing him in that way. In the post you're responding to, I state my opinion clearly and give my reasons -- and then, afterwards, I bring in an authority to second that opinion. That is, I don't take my opinion from Dobber -- I merely find that his agrees with my on this point, and I cite him as a well-respected authority on things fantasy hockey related. The point stands without or without Dobber's seconding.

I've been a Dobber follower for a couple of years. He is one of the most respected fantasy commentators out there. I'm not at all surprised to learn that all his projections are not spot on -- I would frankly be a little scared if he could predict these things precisely -- but, in general, he provides a lot of good info that's always helped me through the years. But to each his own.

Nice answer. You should be a lawyer or politician (and I don't mean that in a disrespectful way). Dobber was the first (and, until this year) the only pool guide I ever paid to read, so I do respect his analysis. That said, he really slipped last year as compared to others. Grab a copy of last year's UPP and you can see what I mean on the "Pooler Comparison" sheet.

wprager wrote:

Nice answer. You should be a lawyer or politician (and I don't mean that in a disrespectful way). Dobber was the first (and, until this year) the only pool guide I ever paid to read, so I do respect his analysis. That said, he really slipped last year as compared to others. Grab a copy of last year's UPP and you can see what I mean on the "Pooler Comparison" sheet.

Believe me, I've given it consideration. There's considerably more money in being a lawyer than being an academic. If only a big pay cheque could overcome my moral scruples -- i.e., my general sense that lawyers are society's bottom-feeders who profit from necessary transactions between people, and otherwise contribute to the general misery of mankind -- I would have become one long ago.

:D

I don't care for the alternative though rooney :D I world without Lawyers? I don't know that we'd be better off.

Cap'n' Clutch wrote:I don't care for the alternative though rooney :D I world without Lawyers? I don't know that we'd be better off.

We'd also be in a lot of trouble if we didn't have any sewage managers or garbage men, or hundreds of other crappy professions people work. Just because I can't handle the thought of working those jobs doesn't mean that I don't see the necessity of their continued existence. Rather, it just means that I don't see myself sifting through other people's Dung for a living -- that being, in my opinion, the common denominator between all three above positions.

I'm glad you put that smiley in there 'cause you never know who you might inadvertantly insult by calling the profession "crappy". BTW I don't take offense but will just say that my Sister is a Lawyer :lol!: . I don't think she see's it as sifting through Crap though.