GAME DAY #18: Red Wings @ Sens - 7:30pm - Monday Nov. 16 2015

wprager wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:I think we can put a whole bunch of players in the "disappointing" category right now:

Pageau
Chiasson
Lazar
Smith
Ceci
Wiercioch
Cowen
Karlsson's Defence (Mendes speculates that he's injured)

When the list is that long, it doesn't bode well for team success, especially when half your D are on there.

The D is struggling, but it's no coincidence that your list includes the entire 3rd line of the team.  All that needs to be done is to look at point contributions of the third line on the top 8 teams in the league, then compare with us.  It won't be pretty.

You sure about that?

Just for fun, I took the top 8 teams (based on winning percentage this turned out to be, in order from top to 8th: Rangers, Stars, Habs, Preds, Caps, Wild, Kings, Blues -- Ottawa was 13th, btw).  Then I ranked their forwards by TOI/G and looked at the players in 7-9th, accounting for anomalies (e.g. Graovac was 8th or 9th  in TOI/G but only played one game so I just took the next guy).

Granted, those are not necessarily always the third liners but without proper research it's the best I can do on short notice.  And it's actually pretty accurate in most cases.

There are anomalies, for sure, such as the Habs' third liner Weise with 8 goals (and Eller with 6), and guys like Gaborik and Vanek  racking up points playing third line minutes, but here's the production (just looking at goals for now) from the top 8:

NYR: 5
DAL: 6
MTL: 15
NSH: 5
WSH: 10
MIN: 13
LAK: 7
STL: 8

AVG: 8.625 (take out Vanek, Weise and Eller and that average takes a steep tumble).

OTT: 8 (Pageau with 4, Lazar and Chiasson with 2 each)

Interesting, good work.

Yeah Prags, the problem with your stats is you need to isolate the 5 on 5 goals as our new friend Urkie pointed out. Regardless, it doesn't change who is struggling and who isn't.

ZBad has been fine as the #2 C lately.

It'd be nice to get Clarkie Mac back and have him back to his "old" self...that'd be a big boost.

tim1_2 wrote:It'd be nice to get Clarkie Mac back and have him back to his "old" self...that'd be a big boost.

That'll be huge for us. We miss Mac so much on the 2nd line - or even Mac with Turris and Stone, then Hoffman can work with Z and Ryan. Such a huge addition when he comes back.

SpezDispensed wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:It'd be nice to get Clarkie Mac back and have him back to his "old" self...that'd be a big boost.

That'll be huge for us.  We miss Mac so much on the 2nd line - or even Mac with Turris and Stone, then Hoffman can work with Z and Ryan.  Such a huge addition when he comes back.

Absolutely. It would be huge because it would solidify our top 6. The bottom 6 still needs to be worked out though. Lazar has been progressing well though and he should be a staple on the third line for now as should Pageau. The question is who should play with them? Michalek has been pretty disappointing to me.

Urkie wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:It'd be nice to get Clarkie Mac back and have him back to his "old" self...that'd be a big boost.

That'll be huge for us.  We miss Mac so much on the 2nd line - or even Mac with Turris and Stone, then Hoffman can work with Z and Ryan.  Such a huge addition when he comes back.

Absolutely. It would be huge because it would solidify our top 6. The bottom 6 still needs to be worked out though. Lazar has been progressing well though and he should be a staple on the third line for now as should Pageau. The question is who should play with them? Michalek has been pretty disappointing to me.

He really has been disappointing, but you wonder if he can settle down and the line, collectively, can contribute more offense. I like that line...I think they can do it, but when you get to the 1/4 point of the season and they have 8 goals between the three...that can be slightly troubling. Although, as WP pointed out, that appears to be right in line with the norm.

If I can say it again though, the 3rd line should be treated as a 2B line and should have the firepower to take pressure off the top 6 players. I really think this is of the utmost importance, can't stress this enough.

SpezDispensed wrote:

Urkie wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:It'd be nice to get Clarkie Mac back and have him back to his "old" self...that'd be a big boost.

That'll be huge for us.  We miss Mac so much on the 2nd line - or even Mac with Turris and Stone, then Hoffman can work with Z and Ryan.  Such a huge addition when he comes back.

Absolutely. It would be huge because it would solidify our top 6. The bottom 6 still needs to be worked out though. Lazar has been progressing well though and he should be a staple on the third line for now as should Pageau. The question is who should play with them? Michalek has been pretty disappointing to me.

He really has been disappointing, but you wonder if he can settle down and the line, collectively, can contribute more offense.  I like that line...I think they can do it, but when you get to the 1/4 point of the season and they have 8 goals between the three...that can be slightly troubling. Although, as WP pointed out, that appears to be right in line with the norm.

If I can say it again though, the 3rd line should be treated as a 2B line and should have the firepower to take pressure off the top 6 players.  I really think this is of the utmost importance, can't stress this enough.

I can agree with that. I would also like to see the third line contribute offensively every other game or at the very least provide a solid forecheck most of their shifts. I would say you're right. Michalek can do a good job there. He just needs to not play with Chiasson. That guy kills any line he's on. When/if MacArthur comes back he should sit in the press box awhile and Puempel should play with Smith and Neil on the fourth line.

Urkie wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:

Urkie wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:It'd be nice to get Clarkie Mac back and have him back to his "old" self...that'd be a big boost.

That'll be huge for us.  We miss Mac so much on the 2nd line - or even Mac with Turris and Stone, then Hoffman can work with Z and Ryan.  Such a huge addition when he comes back.

Absolutely. It would be huge because it would solidify our top 6. The bottom 6 still needs to be worked out though. Lazar has been progressing well though and he should be a staple on the third line for now as should Pageau. The question is who should play with them? Michalek has been pretty disappointing to me.

He really has been disappointing, but you wonder if he can settle down and the line, collectively, can contribute more offense.  I like that line...I think they can do it, but when you get to the 1/4 point of the season and they have 8 goals between the three...that can be slightly troubling. Although, as WP pointed out, that appears to be right in line with the norm.

If I can say it again though, the 3rd line should be treated as a 2B line and should have the firepower to take pressure off the top 6 players.  I really think this is of the utmost importance, can't stress this enough.

I can agree with that. I would also like to see the third line contribute offensively every other game or at the very least provide a solid forecheck most of their shifts. I would say you're right. Michalek can do a good job there. He just needs to not play with Chiasson. That guy kills any line he's on. When/if MacArthur comes back he should sit in the press box awhile and Puempel should play with Smith and Neil on the fourth line.

If money is an issue for a potential deal, Chiasson at 1.2 is a guy that could even up the equation if need be. He might thrive elsewhere.

I agree that JGP isn't really at his best, but I have trouble saying a 3rd liner who is on pace for nearly 20 goals is disappointing.

Urkie wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:

Urkie wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:It'd be nice to get Clarkie Mac back and have him back to his "old" self...that'd be a big boost.

That'll be huge for us.  We miss Mac so much on the 2nd line - or even Mac with Turris and Stone, then Hoffman can work with Z and Ryan.  Such a huge addition when he comes back.

Absolutely. It would be huge because it would solidify our top 6. The bottom 6 still needs to be worked out though. Lazar has been progressing well though and he should be a staple on the third line for now as should Pageau. The question is who should play with them? Michalek has been pretty disappointing to me.

He really has been disappointing, but you wonder if he can settle down and the line, collectively, can contribute more offense.  I like that line...I think they can do it, but when you get to the 1/4 point of the season and they have 8 goals between the three...that can be slightly troubling. Although, as WP pointed out, that appears to be right in line with the norm.

If I can say it again though, the 3rd line should be treated as a 2B line and should have the firepower to take pressure off the top 6 players.  I really think this is of the utmost importance, can't stress this enough.

I can agree with that. I would also like to see the third line contribute offensively every other game or at the very least provide a solid forecheck most of their shifts. I would say you're right. Michalek can do a good job there. He just needs to not play with Chiasson. That guy kills any line he's on. When/if MacArthur comes back he should sit in the press box awhile and Puempel should play with Smith and Neil on the fourth line.

Or...he can go to his rightful place alongside Smith and Neil can sit for a while.

I don't really understand how you can say Michalek has been disappointing when he's been juggled between lines and has 3 goals, while in the same breath (almost) say how Zibanejad is doing fine as a 2LC while collecting 2 goals.

I don't necessarily want to completely discount total points but, let's face it, it's goals that count. It's not like Zibanejad has a ton of primary assists and his wingers are racking up points. Look at the goal totals of the entire line and if those numbers are good then the center gets a passing (heh) grade.

And don't completely discount goals scored on special teams. First of all, they all count the same. Second, to get PP time you earn it by playing well 5v5. Third, did I say they all count? Lastly, goals on the PP and the PK are great to generating momentum so they are just as important as 5v5, of not more so.

The 2nd line has 12 goals while the third line has 8. Normalized to goals/60 the 2nd line is at 0.76 and the third line is at 0.64. It's fair to say that the PP vs. PK time is also heavily in 2nd line favor. So is that 2nd line performing as well as expected relative to the 3rd line? And before you saw the actual stats, I don't think anyone disagreed with SD's thesis that the 3rd line was not pulling its weight.

Pageau has been "disappointing" because of unrealistic expectations.

wprager wrote:I don't really understand how you can say Michalek has been disappointing when he's been juggled between lines and has 3 goals, while in the same breath (almost) say how Zibanejad is doing fine as a 2LC while collecting  2 goals.  

I don't necessarily want to completely discount total points but, let's face it, it's goals that count.  It's not like Zibanejad has a ton of primary assists and his wingers are racking up points.  Look at the goal totals of the entire line and if those numbers are good then the center gets a passing (heh) grade.  

And don't completely discount goals scored on special teams.  First of all, they all count the same.  Second, to get PP time you earn it by playing well 5v5.  Third, did I say they all count?  Lastly, goals on the PP and the PK are great to generating momentum so they are just as important as 5v5, of not more so.  

The 2nd line has 12 goals while the third line has 8.  Normalized to goals/60 the 2nd line is at 0.76 and the third line is at 0.64.  It's fair to say that the PP vs. PK time is also heavily in 2nd line favor.  So is that 2nd line performing as well as expected relative to the 3rd line?   And before you saw the actual stats, I don't think anyone disagreed with SD's thesis that the 3rd line was not pulling its weight.

I don't think the second line has been spectacular 5 on 5 either. They've been just okay. A lot of that may have to do with that line being the same all season but they're not hurting the team 5 on 5. The third line has been very ineffective 5 on 5 which is killing any momentum the team may generate. A lot of emphasis should be about goals and points but I feel like 5 on 5 is key to any teams success. Mainly because special teams are becoming less important due to less PP's.

I've got to disagree. While 5v5 is a good indicator for a player (when comparing player effectiveness) good special teams are good on so many levels:
- a very effective PK allows the team to be more aggressive (less afraid to take penalties)
- similarly, a very effective PP makes the other team less aggressive
- a PK that scores a lot of shorthanded goals makes the other team's PP more risk averse, taking fewer chances

Also, as I stated, a great PP or PK generates a log of momentum (primarily at home).

wprager wrote:Pageau has been "disappointing" because of unrealistic expectations.  

I really don't think that's that case. Speed, skill, character. He has the tools to make a much bigger impact.

SpezDispensed wrote:

wprager wrote:Pageau has been "disappointing" because of unrealistic expectations.  

I really don't think that's that case.  Speed, skill, character.  He has the tools to make a much bigger impact.  

That hat trick against the Habs in the post-season, the "Pageau, Pageau, Pageau, Pageau" chants -- those things make you forget that he is still an undersized, sophomore 4th rounder. Four goals in 18 games while killing penalties is pretty not bad for a sophomore 4th rounder. You think he should have how many, 5? 6 goals? 6 in 18 would put him on a 27-goal pace. That's unrealistic for his pedigree and experience level.

He just hasn't done much "wow" stuff in a few games.

wprager wrote:I've got to disagree.  While 5v5 is a good indicator for a player (when comparing player effectiveness) good special teams are good on so many levels:
- a very effective PK allows the team to be more aggressive (less afraid to take penalties)
- similarly, a very effective PP makes the other team less aggressive
- a PK that scores a lot of shorthanded goals makes the other team's PP more risk averse, taking fewer chances

Also, as I stated, a great PP or PK generates a log of momentum (primarily at home).

That is true but you look at PP's going down over the last little while and it's kind of mind boggling really. For example, the Sens are 28th or something on the PK in the league yet they have an above .500 record. That wouldn't have happened 5 years ago. Not a chance. They would be giving up so many goals that they couldn't possibly recover.

Urkie wrote:

wprager wrote:I've got to disagree.  While 5v5 is a good indicator for a player (when comparing player effectiveness) good special teams are good on so many levels:
- a very effective PK allows the team to be more aggressive (less afraid to take penalties)
- similarly, a very effective PP makes the other team less aggressive
- a PK that scores a lot of shorthanded goals makes the other team's PP more risk averse, taking fewer chances

Also, as I stated, a great PP or PK generates a log of momentum (primarily at home).

That is true but you look at PP's going down over the last little while and it's kind of mind boggling really. For example, the Sens are 28th or something on the PK in the league yet they have an above .500 record. That wouldn't have happened 5 years ago. Not a chance. They would be giving up so many goals that they couldn't possibly recover.

What's their PP/PK differential, though. You better believe minors are up over 10 years ago.

wprager wrote:

SpezDispensed wrote:

wprager wrote:Pageau has been "disappointing" because of unrealistic expectations.  

I really don't think that's that case.  Speed, skill, character.  He has the tools to make a much bigger impact.  

That hat trick against the Habs in the post-season, the "Pageau, Pageau, Pageau, Pageau" chants -- those things make you forget that he is still an undersized, sophomore 4th rounder.  Four goals in 18 games while killing penalties is pretty not bad for a sophomore 4th rounder.  You think he should have how many, 5? 6 goals?  6 in 18 would put him on a 27-goal pace.  That's unrealistic for his pedigree and experience level.

He just hasn't done much "wow" stuff in a few games.

I think if given the opportunity he could be an excellent playmaker as well as being a 20 goal guy. He just has linemates that can't score and he's not playing like he can either.