2010 IIHF World Hockey Tournament

marakh wrote:At 3M a year it better be 6 years min

I would be happy with a Filppula-esque deal. It's good business. Regin is going to be a permanent fixture in our top-6 very soon anyway, if he's not already. Paying him more than he's currently worth on a long deal NOW is a lot smarter than paying him much more than he's worth LATER because of one good season.

If you know your players and trust your long-term assessment of them, this is the way to go.

I have no problem with 3M a year, but it has to be longer than 4 years. 3M x 6 would be perfect.

That would be nice, but it would mean:

- Cheechoo buyout
- Cullen, Volchenkov bye bye
- Foligno or Campoli not re-signed
...

Oh man, what a goal. I'd be comfortable locking him up long term at that price. He should also switch to #93, much better than #43.

N4L wrote:This is the first WC I am somewhat interested in because of all the youth. It should be interesting to see if they can do the job Heatley and Spezza couldnt do. That's right, I said it.

Meh. That tournament is the losers tournament anyway right? Meaningless right?

It is but when you bring 19 and 20 year olds it is still linteresting to me. Not seasoned vets that get knocked out of the playoffs early.

It's a grooming process for the 2014 Olympics and forward. Duchene, Tavares, Stamkos are going to be a huge force for use down the middle for many years to come. Imagine if Eberle was getting to play and Hodgson too.

marakh wrote:That would be nice, but it would mean:

- Cheechoo buyout
- Cullen, Volchenkov bye bye
- Foligno or Campoli not re-signed
...

Kovalev on LTIR for half the year, and/or Cheechoo playing in the minors / bought out, may well be enough. Volchenkov is almost certainly gone anyway.

Anyway, it's so tricky playing this game at this time of year, but here goes.

Our 2010-11 roster needs a minimum of 12 forwards, 6 D, and 2 goalies, or 20 players total. Last year, we went with 22 or so most of the season, however, so I'll proceed assuming that we may well do the same again.

Right now, we have $32.158 mil tied up in 9 forwards (Spezza, Kovalev, Alfie, Michalek, Fisher, Kelly, Neil, Ruutu, and Shannon). Shannon may well be gone, but who knows. We can also safely assume that Smith will make the team (10 forwards; new forward total: $32.741 mil). That leaves 2, maybe 3 roster spots open, with Cullen a UFA and Foligno, Regin, and Winchester RFAs. Cullen will probably cost about $3 mil; Foligno and Regin about $1.5 a piece; and Winchester about $800K. If you go the cheap route, you just sign the RFAs (13 forwards; new forward total: $36.541 mil). If you keep Cullen and trade, say, Foligno, you add about $1.5 mil to that (13 forwards; new forward total: $38.041 mil).

Then you turn to D. Right now, we have $10.075 mil tied up in 5 D here (Kuba, Phillips, Karlsson, Lee, and Carkner). Like Shannon, Lee may be gone, but who knows. Then there's Campoli -- who knows what he'll make; let's say $1.5 mil (6 D; new D total: $11.575 mil). From here, we need at least one D, and this is where it gets really, really tricky. It could be Volchenkov, or Sutton, or a mystery signing, or someone like Gryba. That brings the price range for this 7th D (who will probably not be the real 7th -- I'm assuming that's Lee) from anywhere to $622K, to $2.5-3 mil, to $4-4.5 mil (Gryba, Sutton, and Volchenkov, respectively). That means our total D costs could be $12.197 mil, or $14.075-14.575 mil, or $15.575-16.075 mil. That's a pretty wide range, I know, but that's as precise as it gets at the moment.

Our goaltending is, mercifully (for the purposes of this exercise, anyway), settled. 2 goalies (Elliott, Leclaire), $4.650 mil.

Whew.

The most likely scenario (I think):

We lose Cullen and Volchenkov, but keep Regin, Foligno, Winchester, Campoli, Sutton, and Gryba: $36.541 mil + $12.197 + $4.650 + $562K (Emery's buyout - I included Alfie's in his salary) = $53.950 mil. If I'm off on Sutton, then add another $500K ($54.450 mil). If Melnyk insists on buying out Cheechoo, add yet another $1 mil ($55.450 mil). That figure is still a million+ dollars under the current cap. If the cap raises slightly, and/or if we ship Smith and Gryba back and forth between the AHL and the NHL all season long, and/or Kovalev spends any time on the LTIR, we should be more than fine. This strikes me as the most likely scenario, because the most affordable.

I just don't see how we can fit in Volchenkov at $4+ mil, and at forward, it's either got to be Cullen or Foligno, but not both. Keeping Cullen would mean losing Volchenkov and Sutton, tho', and having to find a replacement for them at no more that $1.5 mil. Cowen or Wiercioch would fit the bill there, incidentally, if either were ready. Meanwhile, keeping Volchenkov and Cullen along with Regin, Winchester, and Campoli,
while losing Sutton and Foligno and buying out Cheechoo, is not an option: that would cost
$60.328 mil, which is way, way too much.

We're in a tight spot money-wise for sure, but I don't think it's unmanageable. Once you realize that we're pretty much guaranteed to lose Volchenkov and one of Cullen or Foligno this off season, barring some big trade (which will throw all our speculations out of whack), then the picture gets clearer. Then it just comes down to how much you have to pay Regin and Campoli, and whether you re-sign Sutton, find an alternative through trade or UFA, or give a spot to one of the kids.

Yeah Rooney, that's the long and the short of it. You can't possibly keep Cullen without collateral damage, same with Volchenkov, but not as badly because there's 3 million+ that should be pencilled in for his replacement, whereas Cullen is a beautiful bonus player to have, with really no roster spot to have him.

I still dont think Foligno is here come training camp.

I can't see the Sens signing Sutton if it's going to cost them 2.5M+ his game isn't worth that much when we have Gryba.

I wouldn't be surprised if they bury Cheechoo. What's his cap hit if they buy him out? 1.5 this year and 1.5 next... so they have to pay him 3M no matter what... may as well leave him in the AHL

N4L wrote:I still dont think Foligno is here come training camp.

Well, it certainly looks like only one of Cullen or Foligno will be back, that's for sure.

DirtyDave wrote:I can't see the Sens signing Sutton if it's going to cost them 2.5M+ his game isn't worth that much when we have Gryba.

I wouldn't be surprised if they bury Cheechoo. What's his cap hit if they buy him out? 1.5 this year and 1.5 next... so they have to pay him 3M no matter what... may as well leave him in the AHL

You may be right about Sutton. I imagine we need to add at least one decent D to the list of Phillips, Kuba, Karlsson, Campoli, Carkner, Lee, and Gryba. That's not a very formidable line up at all, unless Lee transforms into a top 4 skater and can play with one of Phillips or Kuba.

As for Cheechoo: the buyout is $2 mil, spread over 2 years, so $1 mil a year cap hit for 2 years. A buyout saves Melnyk a cool million. Burying Cheechoo would be best for the team's cap; buying him out would be best for Melnyk's wallet.

You have Kovalev on the LTIR with a torn ACL, yet Michalek with the exact same injury is in the line-up?

Both will be ready to go come October.

SDH89 wrote:You have Kovalev on the LTIR with a torn ACL, yet Michalek with the exact same injury is in the line-up?

Both will be ready to go come October.

Nope, just said it's a possibility, and but one of three or four ways we might be able to save a few bucks. If you're paying attention, too, you'll note that I haven't taken a cent off any of those calculations for Kovalev on LTIR, either -- it was just a passing remark.

As for the difference between Kovalev's and Michalek's situations, it's about 11 years. That sort of thing matters when it comes to recovery time, I'd guess.

N4L wrote:I still dont think Foligno is here come training camp.

Why's that? You'd keep a vet over a 'prospect'?

And how would you dispose of his contract? Lee, Foligno, and our 1st for a top 5-8?

rooneypoo wrote:

SDH89 wrote:You have Kovalev on the LTIR with a torn ACL, yet Michalek with the exact same injury is in the line-up?

Both will be ready to go come October.

Nope, just said it's a possibility, and but one of three or four ways we might be able to save a few bucks. If you're paying attention, too, you'll note that I haven't taken a cent off any of those calculations for Kovalev on LTIR, either -- it was just a passing remark.

As for the difference between Kovalev's and Michalek's situations, it's about 11 years. That sort of thing matters when it comes to recovery time, I'd guess.

Ah my mistake, interesting take!

If The Sens want any shot of doing anything in the playoffs next year, maybe even making it, they need Cullen to resign. It was shocking how complete of a player he is. No injury problems, plays in every situation, and can play any position up front. He's the reason The Sens took The Pens to 6 games, without him, IMO, they get swept.

As for Foligno being resigned, I think he gets dealt as Regin basically took his spot in the lineup. Are The Sens really going to pay Foligno 1.5 mil to play on the 4th line with pretty close to no time on the PP? I dont think so. He, along with Lee are probably trade bait to move up in the draft.

You have guys like Butler, Greening, and a long shot in Petersson who are going to push for spots. I would say Butler is pretty much a garentee to start the season up in Ottawa.

You have your top line of Michalek/Spezza/Regin and Alfi/Fisher/Kovalev, that's without the resigning of Cullen. Neil/Kelly/Ruutu probably wont be broken up and if it is, Smith will probably jump into Ruutu's spot. You are left with Winchester, Shannon, Foligno, Butler, Greening, Smith, perhaps Cullen. Dealing Foligno moves you up in the draft and it allows 1/2 of Cullen's salary to be paid.