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http://www.silversevensens.com/2010/3/9/1362053/justin-goldman-on-the-current
you wont find a better analysis of our weakness right here. amazing read.
The hottest topic in Ottawa these days (as it has been for years) is
the Ottawa Senators' goaltender situation,
particularly with the playoffs quickly approaching. I was going to write
a lengthy feature on the current state of Ottawa Senators netminding,
but then I remembered that great maxim: can't someone else do it?
With that in mind, I managed to get the great goalkeeping mind of
Justin Goldman to answer some questions for us. Justin is the founder of
great netminder resource The Goalie Guild and a scout for McKeen's. It's a
very lengthy write-up, but I encourage you to read through it all,
because you won't find a more in-depth analysis of Ottawa Senators
goaltending anywhere on the web or in print. Justin gives us his
thoughts on Pascal Leclaire, Brian Elliott, Mike Brodeur, Robin Lehner, and much, much more. Enjoy!
Why has Pascal Leclaire underachieved in Ottawa so far? Is it
attributable to his injury history, or is he simply not as good as his
draft spot and 9 shutout season suggested he was?
Aside from the injuries and bouts with the flu, Leclaire hasn’t lived
up to expectations this season because of his inability to play with
enough consistency in his limited chances. Not once has he won more than
two games in a row all season long. Whether it was due to being sick,
rehabbing or failing to win three in a row, Leclaire hasn’t created
enough momentum or confidence in his game in order to own the crease.
And without consistent starts, he has been unable to get into a good
goaltending rhythm.
Trying to determine where Leclaire’s current value ranks related to
his draft spot is futile because NHL goalies are drafted in every round
and many more are undrafted. One of the most interesting yet difficult
aspects of scouting goaltenders is that their rate of development is not
only unique to the individual goalie, but it’s also constantly
changing. Goalies can develop really fast for a few months and then not
at all for a few years, or it could be the complete opposite or anywhere
in between. It all just depends on their situation and their day-to-day
results.
So where a goalie is drafted does not really matter when it comes to
success. But for argument’s sake, I would say that Leclaire has failed
to live up to his high draft spot. It’s not his fault though – injuries
are just a part of being human. It’s a risk all teams and players take. I
would also say that he should have never been drafted that soon in the
first place, but that’s another story.
His success in Columbus stemmed from being on a young and talented
team where head coach Ken Hitchcock employed a strong and structured
defensive system. Leclaire was not facing nearly as many scoring
opportunities on average in a game, so therefore it was much easier to
perform consistently and he was able to log a ton of minutes and play in
a strong rhythm. That, combined with his relatively good health,
allowed him to post such great statistics and so many impressive
shutouts.
Without going into too much detail, there’s also the issue of
Leclaire’s past injuries. Although I’m no medical scientist, I have done
enough research and talked to enough athletic trainers to know the
negative impact a torn meniscus can have on a goalie. With a position
that relies so much on the knees in order to be effective in the
butterfly, this is a devastating injury for Leclaire to have suffered.
To be honest, it’s almost impossible to play exactly the same after a
serious meniscus tear.
I can’t speak on the severity of Leclaire’s meniscus tear or ankle
injury, but because he’s a smaller goalie that relies on reflexes, sharp
reactions and extreme flexibility to stop pucks, the injuries are
impacting his future more than a team would want.
If you're Cory Clouston, which goalie do you ride until and during
the playoffs: Brian Elliott or Pascal Leclaire. Why? (Basically -- who
is the better goaltender right now?)
I would ride Brian Elliott without a doubt. He’s a young goaltender
that will play better if he’s given positive reinforcement from the
coaching staff, his teammates and even the fans. The more that the
organization gets behind him, the more relaxed and confident he will
play. The key is for the coaches to stay away from negative
reinforcement. If he competes well and makes some timely saves in a
tough one-goal loss, that does not mean he should be automatically
benched in favor of Leclaire. At the same time, he should not be
rewarded if he makes a lot of mental mistakes or fails to give his team a
chance to win.
If Leclaire is able to take advantage of some bad games by Elliott
and actually put together more than two solid efforts in a row, the
coaching staff would be smart to make their decisions on a day-by-day
and practice-by-practice basis. Whichever goalie plays with more energy,
focus and confidence should ultimately start in the hopes once catches
fire heading into the playoffs. If I had to choose one, however, I would
easily put my faith in Elliott, as he has continued to develop nicely
over the last two years and is capable of going on another long winning
streak at any time. Jonas Hiller did the same thing last year, but
only because the organization recognized the talent and ability was
there and they gave Hiller most of the starts over Giguere.
Both Elliott and Leclaire have contracts that expire at the end of
next season. Elliott will be a restricted free agent, Leclaire an
unrestricted free agent. If the Senators can only afford to sign one,
who should they go with? (Basically, who is the better bet long term?)
Once next season is halfway over, the organization should have a much
clearer picture of Leclaire’s health and Elliott’s progression. In my
opinion, I think the future will be very clear. Leclaire won’t be worth
the money to re-sign long-term, especially because of his band-aid boy
status. Elliott also makes the most sense to retain because Robin Lehner is the (very bright) future of
the organization, so it will just be a matter of biding time until he’s
NHL ready. There’s no point in spending money on a injury-prone goalie
when you can save that cap money, spend less on Elliott and have even
more for Lehner.
Where does Mike Brodeur fit
into the Senators organization? He's played great in his few NHL
call-ups, but will he ever be an NHL goalie?
Mike Brodeur has been an inspirational story for goaltenders
everywhere, including myself. He’s an extremely hard-working individual
with great mental toughness and very solid skills. Unfortunately, due to
his age, he’s not considered very valuable for most organizations. He’s
an excellent goalie to have in the locker room and could easily be a
backup on just about any NHL team. But because the focus for teams is on
young goalies with extremely high potential, it’s very unlikely Brodeur
ever becomes anything more than an NHL backup.
That being said, anything can happen. If you wanted to relate him to
another goalie that has thrived in the twilight of his pro career, just
look at Scott Clemmensen. He was a backup his whole
life until Martin Brodeur went down with the torn biceps
injury. The rest was history and Clemmensen was able to extend his
career for a few more years down in Florida. There’s no reason Mike
Brodeur can’t do the same thing. At least now the organization has
confidence in him and will not hesitate to throw him in the crease if
the situation arises. And I’m more than confident he would be very
successful as well.
Your website lists Robin Lehner as the 9th best goalie prospect in
your Top-100 Prospects list. Could you expand on Lehner's qualities as a
goalie? Also, what do you predict for his future? Is he ready for the
AHL next year? Do you feel he has it in him to be a starting goaltender
someday at the NHL level? How long until he would be ready for the NHL?
Just to clarify, my Top-100 Prospects Rankings is for fantasy keeper
leagues and a feature aimed at my School of Block fantasy hockey
articles, not straight up talent or potential, so the ranking should be
taken from a long-term perspective. That being said, Lehner is still one
of the better highly-touted European goalies out there and has the
potential to be an elite #1 goalie in the NHL. A mini-scouting report on
Lehner would read like this:
Lehner is one of the best goalies in his age group when it comes to
matching quickness with size. He has a daunting presence in the net that
fills up more holes than most goalies, especially when he’s confident
and at the top of his crease. His butterfly is a little bit wider than
average, so he will need to work on straightening his back and having
better balance and stronger net coverage and lateral movement while on
his knees. Similar to other raw European goalies, his stance needs to be
refined over the course of a few more seasons and his energy and
excitement in the crease needs to be channeled more effectively. But for
his size, he’s very quick and has good active hands, which take away
the corners and covers holes on the ice effectively. You can tell he has
received a lot of elite, structured coaching from his father, Michael
Lehner, as it shows in Robin’s technique and overall execution. Michael
is Henrik Lundqvist’s former goalie coach, so
Robin has been highly influenced by both of them.
Since this is his first season playing in North America, you can
expect two more seasons in the OHL before turning pro and heading to the
AHL. Other doors could open and things could happen sooner but I think
you’re looking at three more years before he’s NHL ready. He has the
potential to not only be a #1 goalie in the NHL, but be an elite
long-term keeper.
How does the Senators' goaltending depth compare to other NHL
teams?
I would say it’s one of the weaker depth charts in the NHL. If you
check the Senators’ website, they have zero goalies listed under their
prospects page and I’m wondering if that’s a mistake or proof they need
some goalies in the system. Lehner is certainly a prized prospect that
has only scratched the surface of his potential, but other than Elliott
and maybe Chris Holt, there’s not much to get excited
about. Brodeur is too old to be considered a prospect and Andy Chiodo has bounced all over the place in
the last few seasons. In fact, he was just sent down to Elmira in the
ECHL, so it looks more and more like Holt is sticking in Binghamton. It
would serve the Senators well to draft or acquire some prospects this
summer.
Finally, if you're Bryan Murray, what round do you grab a
goaltender in this year's draft, if at all?
I would take 2-3 goalies in different rounds depending on what’s
available and be sure to draft at least one European talent from Finland
or Sweden. There has been a growing trend of European goalies being
drafted and promptly placed into the CHL, where many of them seem to
thrive and blossom much more than originally expected.
Two goalies will probably be drafted in the first round this summer –
Jack Campbell and Calvin Pickard. There are more quality eligible
goalies out there, but I would take one named Jussi Rynnas in 4th
or 5th round. He’s put together a surprising season for a
very weak team (Assat) and has turned heads in a hurry, very similar to
what Jonas Gustavsson did last season with
Farjestad.
you wont find a better analysis of our weakness right here. amazing read.
The hottest topic in Ottawa these days (as it has been for years) is
the Ottawa Senators' goaltender situation,
particularly with the playoffs quickly approaching. I was going to write
a lengthy feature on the current state of Ottawa Senators netminding,
but then I remembered that great maxim: can't someone else do it?
With that in mind, I managed to get the great goalkeeping mind of
Justin Goldman to answer some questions for us. Justin is the founder of
great netminder resource The Goalie Guild and a scout for McKeen's. It's a
very lengthy write-up, but I encourage you to read through it all,
because you won't find a more in-depth analysis of Ottawa Senators
goaltending anywhere on the web or in print. Justin gives us his
thoughts on Pascal Leclaire, Brian Elliott, Mike Brodeur, Robin Lehner, and much, much more. Enjoy!
Why has Pascal Leclaire underachieved in Ottawa so far? Is it
attributable to his injury history, or is he simply not as good as his
draft spot and 9 shutout season suggested he was?
Aside from the injuries and bouts with the flu, Leclaire hasn’t lived
up to expectations this season because of his inability to play with
enough consistency in his limited chances. Not once has he won more than
two games in a row all season long. Whether it was due to being sick,
rehabbing or failing to win three in a row, Leclaire hasn’t created
enough momentum or confidence in his game in order to own the crease.
And without consistent starts, he has been unable to get into a good
goaltending rhythm.
Trying to determine where Leclaire’s current value ranks related to
his draft spot is futile because NHL goalies are drafted in every round
and many more are undrafted. One of the most interesting yet difficult
aspects of scouting goaltenders is that their rate of development is not
only unique to the individual goalie, but it’s also constantly
changing. Goalies can develop really fast for a few months and then not
at all for a few years, or it could be the complete opposite or anywhere
in between. It all just depends on their situation and their day-to-day
results.
So where a goalie is drafted does not really matter when it comes to
success. But for argument’s sake, I would say that Leclaire has failed
to live up to his high draft spot. It’s not his fault though – injuries
are just a part of being human. It’s a risk all teams and players take. I
would also say that he should have never been drafted that soon in the
first place, but that’s another story.
His success in Columbus stemmed from being on a young and talented
team where head coach Ken Hitchcock employed a strong and structured
defensive system. Leclaire was not facing nearly as many scoring
opportunities on average in a game, so therefore it was much easier to
perform consistently and he was able to log a ton of minutes and play in
a strong rhythm. That, combined with his relatively good health,
allowed him to post such great statistics and so many impressive
shutouts.
Without going into too much detail, there’s also the issue of
Leclaire’s past injuries. Although I’m no medical scientist, I have done
enough research and talked to enough athletic trainers to know the
negative impact a torn meniscus can have on a goalie. With a position
that relies so much on the knees in order to be effective in the
butterfly, this is a devastating injury for Leclaire to have suffered.
To be honest, it’s almost impossible to play exactly the same after a
serious meniscus tear.
I can’t speak on the severity of Leclaire’s meniscus tear or ankle
injury, but because he’s a smaller goalie that relies on reflexes, sharp
reactions and extreme flexibility to stop pucks, the injuries are
impacting his future more than a team would want.
If you're Cory Clouston, which goalie do you ride until and during
the playoffs: Brian Elliott or Pascal Leclaire. Why? (Basically -- who
is the better goaltender right now?)
I would ride Brian Elliott without a doubt. He’s a young goaltender
that will play better if he’s given positive reinforcement from the
coaching staff, his teammates and even the fans. The more that the
organization gets behind him, the more relaxed and confident he will
play. The key is for the coaches to stay away from negative
reinforcement. If he competes well and makes some timely saves in a
tough one-goal loss, that does not mean he should be automatically
benched in favor of Leclaire. At the same time, he should not be
rewarded if he makes a lot of mental mistakes or fails to give his team a
chance to win.
If Leclaire is able to take advantage of some bad games by Elliott
and actually put together more than two solid efforts in a row, the
coaching staff would be smart to make their decisions on a day-by-day
and practice-by-practice basis. Whichever goalie plays with more energy,
focus and confidence should ultimately start in the hopes once catches
fire heading into the playoffs. If I had to choose one, however, I would
easily put my faith in Elliott, as he has continued to develop nicely
over the last two years and is capable of going on another long winning
streak at any time. Jonas Hiller did the same thing last year, but
only because the organization recognized the talent and ability was
there and they gave Hiller most of the starts over Giguere.
Both Elliott and Leclaire have contracts that expire at the end of
next season. Elliott will be a restricted free agent, Leclaire an
unrestricted free agent. If the Senators can only afford to sign one,
who should they go with? (Basically, who is the better bet long term?)
Once next season is halfway over, the organization should have a much
clearer picture of Leclaire’s health and Elliott’s progression. In my
opinion, I think the future will be very clear. Leclaire won’t be worth
the money to re-sign long-term, especially because of his band-aid boy
status. Elliott also makes the most sense to retain because Robin Lehner is the (very bright) future of
the organization, so it will just be a matter of biding time until he’s
NHL ready. There’s no point in spending money on a injury-prone goalie
when you can save that cap money, spend less on Elliott and have even
more for Lehner.
Where does Mike Brodeur fit
into the Senators organization? He's played great in his few NHL
call-ups, but will he ever be an NHL goalie?
Mike Brodeur has been an inspirational story for goaltenders
everywhere, including myself. He’s an extremely hard-working individual
with great mental toughness and very solid skills. Unfortunately, due to
his age, he’s not considered very valuable for most organizations. He’s
an excellent goalie to have in the locker room and could easily be a
backup on just about any NHL team. But because the focus for teams is on
young goalies with extremely high potential, it’s very unlikely Brodeur
ever becomes anything more than an NHL backup.
That being said, anything can happen. If you wanted to relate him to
another goalie that has thrived in the twilight of his pro career, just
look at Scott Clemmensen. He was a backup his whole
life until Martin Brodeur went down with the torn biceps
injury. The rest was history and Clemmensen was able to extend his
career for a few more years down in Florida. There’s no reason Mike
Brodeur can’t do the same thing. At least now the organization has
confidence in him and will not hesitate to throw him in the crease if
the situation arises. And I’m more than confident he would be very
successful as well.
Your website lists Robin Lehner as the 9th best goalie prospect in
your Top-100 Prospects list. Could you expand on Lehner's qualities as a
goalie? Also, what do you predict for his future? Is he ready for the
AHL next year? Do you feel he has it in him to be a starting goaltender
someday at the NHL level? How long until he would be ready for the NHL?
Just to clarify, my Top-100 Prospects Rankings is for fantasy keeper
leagues and a feature aimed at my School of Block fantasy hockey
articles, not straight up talent or potential, so the ranking should be
taken from a long-term perspective. That being said, Lehner is still one
of the better highly-touted European goalies out there and has the
potential to be an elite #1 goalie in the NHL. A mini-scouting report on
Lehner would read like this:
Lehner is one of the best goalies in his age group when it comes to
matching quickness with size. He has a daunting presence in the net that
fills up more holes than most goalies, especially when he’s confident
and at the top of his crease. His butterfly is a little bit wider than
average, so he will need to work on straightening his back and having
better balance and stronger net coverage and lateral movement while on
his knees. Similar to other raw European goalies, his stance needs to be
refined over the course of a few more seasons and his energy and
excitement in the crease needs to be channeled more effectively. But for
his size, he’s very quick and has good active hands, which take away
the corners and covers holes on the ice effectively. You can tell he has
received a lot of elite, structured coaching from his father, Michael
Lehner, as it shows in Robin’s technique and overall execution. Michael
is Henrik Lundqvist’s former goalie coach, so
Robin has been highly influenced by both of them.
Since this is his first season playing in North America, you can
expect two more seasons in the OHL before turning pro and heading to the
AHL. Other doors could open and things could happen sooner but I think
you’re looking at three more years before he’s NHL ready. He has the
potential to not only be a #1 goalie in the NHL, but be an elite
long-term keeper.
How does the Senators' goaltending depth compare to other NHL
teams?
I would say it’s one of the weaker depth charts in the NHL. If you
check the Senators’ website, they have zero goalies listed under their
prospects page and I’m wondering if that’s a mistake or proof they need
some goalies in the system. Lehner is certainly a prized prospect that
has only scratched the surface of his potential, but other than Elliott
and maybe Chris Holt, there’s not much to get excited
about. Brodeur is too old to be considered a prospect and Andy Chiodo has bounced all over the place in
the last few seasons. In fact, he was just sent down to Elmira in the
ECHL, so it looks more and more like Holt is sticking in Binghamton. It
would serve the Senators well to draft or acquire some prospects this
summer.
Finally, if you're Bryan Murray, what round do you grab a
goaltender in this year's draft, if at all?
I would take 2-3 goalies in different rounds depending on what’s
available and be sure to draft at least one European talent from Finland
or Sweden. There has been a growing trend of European goalies being
drafted and promptly placed into the CHL, where many of them seem to
thrive and blossom much more than originally expected.
Two goalies will probably be drafted in the first round this summer –
Jack Campbell and Calvin Pickard. There are more quality eligible
goalies out there, but I would take one named Jussi Rynnas in 4th
or 5th round. He’s put together a surprising season for a
very weak team (Assat) and has turned heads in a hurry, very similar to
what Jonas Gustavsson did last season with
Farjestad.
