Spezza's Maturing

504Heater wrote:

Neely4Life wrote:I disagree with basically all of this, but if you want to keep Spezza in Ottawa, then Heatley has to go. If that happens, then you can work with Spezza, if not, the economics make zero sense and the Sens are up the creek for a long time.

Its not that complicated. One of the 7 million dollar salaries has to go!

Basically...I've done the math a thousand times and this is the only reason I can see him going.

It's tough with the cap at 50 to have half your $$ in 4 guys - one of whom simply doesn't produce.

OK, I keep reading stuff like this, so I thought it's time to demystify some of the statements that are being made about how cap money is being allocated by many teams (including top teams) in the NHL.

I've spent some time over at NHLSCAP.com and crunched a bunch of numbers on how much other teams (who spend close to the cap, like the Sens) spend up front on their 4 highest paid forwards. The simple truth of the matter is that what the Sens spend on their 4 forwards is very, very comparable to what other teams spend on their 4.

Here's a snapshot of what other comparable teams are paying, combined, for their 4 highest paid forwards:

OTT: just under $23 mil
PHI: just under $23 mil
SJ: just over $20 mil
DAL: just under $21 mil
NYR: just under $21 mil
WAS: $23 mil
DET: $20 mil

There are a couple of things to factor in here.

1) Some of these salaries are shorter term, meaning that some cap hits will come off the teams' books soon, whereas all of our players are locked up long term. This is a significant factor, but it also gives us stability and predictability, which other teams lack (see point 3).

2) Mike Fisher probably isn't, and certainly doesn't produce like, a top-4 forward even though he's paid like one. This is a big problem that is largely, but not totally, particular to our team: Jere Lehtinen, Chris Drury, Martin Havlat, Sergei Federov, and Valtteri Filppula and Dan Cleary (who are, yes, indeed 2 of DET's top 4 paid forwards), I hope we can agree, are all either over paid, not producing like top-4 forwards, or simply not top-4 forwards (like Fisher), period.

3) Some players on these, and other teams not listed here, are in for major pay hikes, which will throw their caps out of whack; think of, for instance, Toews and Kane, Backstrom (WAS) and Semin, Zetterberg, Eriksson, Zherdev, Setoguchi, Lucic and Krejci, and so on. The truth is that most, if not all, of the teams that are currently doing well are simply not going to be able to afford to keep everyone together for much longer.

The simple fact of the matter, then, is that what the Sens spend on their 4 highest paid forwards is on par with what other teams, spending a comparable amount of money, spend on their 4 forwards.

What accounts for the discrepancies between good teams like SJ and DET and bad teams like OTT is NOT, then, how much we have tied up in our 4 highest paid forwards -- BUT RATHER how well those top 4 are producing and how much we're getting out of the supporting cast -- the players who are NOT on the big-ticket money deals. Production from rookies on cheaper deals -- of which we are currently getting little to nothing -- is particularly key. Think of guys like Setoguchi, Backstrom, Eriksson, etc. What makes Ottawa different from most teams is that they're not getting much from the guys they spend little money on, which is not the case with current successful teams. To be a good team in the NHL today, you need low-money guys to step up big for you, plain and simple.

So, getting back to OTT, how do you make room for another big contract or two at D or G? The key would seem to be eliminating most of the middling deals -- the guys who make $1-3 mil (Kelly, Vermette, Smith, etc.) -- and replacing them with inexpensive and/or rookie talent. And if you want to succeed, those rookies have to come in and produce quickly. That's the big difference between teams like OTT and DET or SJ, and not the amount of money we spend on our 4 highest paid forwards.

Solid points. One thing I will question about the Sens is the division of PP time... Just throwing this out there and I am not sure of stats for other teams but our secondary scorers get no relevant PP time. Our top 3 take up at least 3/4 of our PP time. They stay out far too long, way past the point when the can compete. Given that we suck 5-5 perhaps the problem is that we only give time to the 2nd and 3rd lines in these circumstances and the big line is too tired to compete consistently in the 5-5 scenario. I say limit everyone's shift to 30 seconds and bench those who don't comply. Strip the non-competitors of their letters and give them to someone who does and then see what happens. Maybe it doesn't fix the problems but maybe it does shake 'em up. If you can't get a PMD and you don't want to clean house in the front office, this is all that is left. It is what I would try.

Thanks Rooney. I asked earlier if there was an alternative to trading away one of the big contracts due to my quick comparison of Washington who actually had more money tied up than us. I'm happy to see you extrapolate the cap situation to this degree as it leads to a more educated discussion.

I'd argue that as much as the production of the supporting cast plays in, it's still really an issue of the D.

Boston, Detroit and San Jose all have tremendous puck-movement and this has translated into higher point totals for all of their forwards.

For proof of this, we can look back to the best blue-line Ottawa has ever assembled, the one of '05-'06 with Chara, good Redden and Meszaros, Phillips, Volchenkov and Pothier.

Look at the totals of the forwards playing in front of that D. Heatley, Spezza and Alfredsson all produced, obviously, but look at the supporting cast forward-wise.

Schaefer 20 goals 50 points
Smolinski 20 goals 48 points
Mike Fisher 22 goals 44 points
Antoine Vermette 21 goals 33 points
Chris Neil 16 goals 33 points
Chris Kelly 10 goals 30 points
Patrick Eaves 20 goals 29 points
Vaclav Varada 5 goals 21 points

Combine that with a D with Redden scoring 10 goals, 50 points, Chara 16 goals, 43 points, Meszaros 10 goals, 39 points and Pothier 5 points and 35 points, and you'll see that even with Havlat, supposedly our #4 forward, missing most of the season we were the highest scoring team post-lock-out and remain so.

Heck, Phillips and Volchenkov put up 19 and 17 points respectively.

The players on Ottawa didn't magically get worse. Although I think that Fisher is overpaid and not a #4 forward, I think our forward core as a whole, especially when you factor in the strong play of Foligno and Winchester, is not as bad as we think it is.

So what's the difference? Obviously losing Redden and Chara hurts, but generally speaking there was a loss of A) Confidence and B) puck-movement.

Although each has had their own special trade-mark, every team post-lockout that has won the Cup has had great D and puck-movement to help them do so. Detroit last season, Anaheim before that, Carolina had great scoring depth and kinda lucked out with Ward, and Tampa before that have all had mobile, puck-moving blue-lines.

Top 3 teams this year? Boston, San Jose, Detroit. All have great puck-movement. Other high-ranking teams? Chicago, with guys like Campbell, Keith, Barker etc., Washington with Green et all, etc etc.

Obviously we have great primary scorers, even if it doesn't seem like it this year, and I think throughout the organization, especially with the incoming of guys like Regin, Zubov and Smith, we have a fairly decent supporting cast.

The puck-movement on the current team is dreadful, and although we're trying to fix that long-term with Lee, Wiercioch and especially Karlsson, I maintain that Hedman, for this reason (and because he can play D as well) should remain our pursuit.

Also, I've liked Spezza's game tonight but feel free to make a hit when the opportunity presents itself.

Please. I insist.

Yup. The amount of turnovers in our zone hurts, but the turn overs caused when we chip the puck out of our zone into our forwards skates, or behind our forwards, or too far ahead of the forwards and straight onto opposing dmens sticks hurt just as much.

Try this one out next game. Have a drink everytime one of the above happens to the Sens. You'll be tanked by the 1st intermission.

Everyone here knows that we improve our offensive production with quality PMDs. There is a certain degree of defensive improvement as well, even if the PMD is defensively challenged. It's strange but true. Opposing D pinch less often, forecheckers may not commit to the same degree downlow, opposition is forced to play more conservative hockey.

BTW, what has our record been since the Kuba injury? I'm curious...

beerandsens wrote:Yup. The amount of turnovers in our zone hurts, but the turn overs caused when we chip the puck out of our zone into our forwards skates, or behind our forwards, or too far ahead of the forwards and straight onto opposing dmens sticks hurt just as much.

Try this one out next game. Have a drink everytime one of the above happens to the Sens. You'll be tanked by the 1st intermission.

Everyone here knows that we improve our offensive production with quality PMDs. There is a certain degree of defensive improvement as well, even if the PMD is defensively challenged. It's strange but true. Opposing D pinch less often, forecheckers may not commit to the same degree downlow, opposition is forced to play more conservative hockey.

BTW, what has our record been since the Kuba injury? I'm curious...

You've got serious stamina - I would have given it until the 10 minute mark at most. They are doing it basically every f***ing time.

HAHA :D
No, the 10 minute mark is my limit when I play the "Drink instead of yelling at Schubert" game.

Oh wait a minute...
they're basically the same game

beerandsens wrote:Yup. The amount of turnovers in our zone hurts, but the turn overs caused when we chip the puck out of our zone into our forwards skates, or behind our forwards, or too far ahead of the forwards and straight onto opposing dmens sticks hurt just as much.

Try this one out next game. Have a drink everytime one of the above happens to the Sens. You'll be tanked by the 1st intermission.

Everyone here knows that we improve our offensive production with quality PMDs. There is a certain degree of defensive improvement as well, even if the PMD is defensively challenged. It's strange but true. Opposing D pinch less often, forecheckers may not commit to the same degree downlow, opposition is forced to play more conservative hockey.

BTW, what has our record been since the Kuba injury? I'm curious...

The PMD helps on D by improving the transition game. When the opposing team is worried about getting burnt, they'll commit less on the fore-check. Also, it's easier to get the puck down the ice, and it's hard to get scored on when the puck is 200 feet away (unless you're Vesa Toskala ).

Of course, there are draw-backs, as we saw againt Anaheim (and in Canada v Sweden). Sometimes they aren't the best defensively or get beaten by the dump and chase.

Of course, if you have to do all the work lugging the puck up the ice, the dump and chase is pretty exhausting for the forwards.

At any rate, as much as we need a #2 Centre, and as much as I love MSP, I think Hedman or (to a lesser extent) Cowen is the guy to target at the draft.

Also, I don't know what our record without Kuba looks like but it can't be very good.

beerandsens wrote:HAHA :D
No, the 10 minute mark is my limit when I play the "Drink instead of yelling at Schubert" game.

That'd put the beer in beerandsens.

Seriously, how can a guy that strong, that fast, with that good a shot, that physical, and with a decent pass manage to be so useless?

asq2 wrote:Also, I don't know what our record without Kuba looks like but it can't be very good.

It weren't all that good with him either (although at least he was getting points for me in the pool)

I say let's just give up the season now (not that it makes a difference if we decide to or not since it's basically done anyhow) and start deciding who we can trade for draft picks, and when.

There's probably a better thread for this, but I just want everyone to be aware of Vermette's shooting percentage this year. WOW.

GP G A P Shots Sht%
387-14898129+3175

2008-09		3	10		3.37
2007-08		24	53		13.71

It didn't work and won't let me edit the post here at work, so you can see the percentage here instead: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id=2130&hubname=nhl-senators

Our record has been a dismal 1-6-1 without Kuba

beerandsens wrote:It didn't work and won't let me edit the post here at work, so you can see the percentage here instead: [url=http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id=2130&hubname=nhl-senators

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id=2130&hubname=nhl-senators[/quote[/url]]

So why doesn't he shoot more?
Oh, yeah, you need to have the puck in the offensive zone first...

He's actually on pace to get more shots off this year than last. It's his conversion to goals which is below 4% compared to nearly 14% last year.