Spezza's Maturing

beerandsens wrote:It didn't work and won't let me edit the post here at work, so you can see the percentage here instead: [url=http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id=2130&hubname=nhl-senators

asq2 wrote:I'd argue that as much as the production of the supporting cast plays in, it's still really an issue of the D.

Boston, Detroit and San Jose all have tremendous puck-movement and this has translated into higher point totals for all of their forwards.

For proof of this, we can look back to the best blue-line Ottawa has ever assembled, the one of '05-'06 with Chara, good Redden and Meszaros, Phillips, Volchenkov and Pothier.

Look at the totals of the forwards playing in front of that D. Heatley, Spezza and Alfredsson all produced, obviously, but look at the supporting cast forward-wise.

Schaefer 20 goals 50 points
Smolinski 20 goals 48 points
Mike Fisher 22 goals 44 points
Antoine Vermette 21 goals 33 points
Chris Neil 16 goals 33 points
Chris Kelly 10 goals 30 points
Patrick Eaves 20 goals 29 points
Vaclav Varada 5 goals 21 points

Combine that with a D with Redden scoring 10 goals, 50 points, Chara 16 goals, 43 points, Meszaros 10 goals, 39 points and Pothier 5 points and 35 points, and you'll see that even with Havlat, supposedly our #4 forward, missing most of the season we were the highest scoring team post-lock-out and remain so.

Heck, Phillips and Volchenkov put up 19 and 17 points respectively.

The players on Ottawa didn't magically get worse. Although I think that Fisher is overpaid and not a #4 forward, I think our forward core as a whole, especially when you factor in the strong play of Foligno and Winchester, is not as bad as we think it is.

So what's the difference? Obviously losing Redden and Chara hurts, but generally speaking there was a loss of A) Confidence and B) puck-movement.

Although each has had their own special trade-mark, every team post-lockout that has won the Cup has had great D and puck-movement to help them do so. Detroit last season, Anaheim before that, Carolina had great scoring depth and kinda lucked out with Ward, and Tampa before that have all had mobile, puck-moving blue-lines.

Top 3 teams this year? Boston, San Jose, Detroit. All have great puck-movement. Other high-ranking teams? Chicago, with guys like Campbell, Keith, Barker etc., Washington with Green et all, etc etc.

Obviously we have great primary scorers, even if it doesn't seem like it this year, and I think throughout the organization, especially with the incoming of guys like Regin, Zubov and Smith, we have a fairly decent supporting cast.

The puck-movement on the current team is dreadful, and although we're trying to fix that long-term with Lee, Wiercioch and especially Karlsson, I maintain that Hedman, for this reason (and because he can play D as well) should remain our pursuit.

rooneypoo wrote:

asq2 wrote:I'd argue that as much as the production of the supporting cast plays in, it's still really an issue of the D.

Boston, Detroit and San Jose all have tremendous puck-movement and this has translated into higher point totals for all of their forwards.

For proof of this, we can look back to the best blue-line Ottawa has ever assembled, the one of '05-'06 with Chara, good Redden and Meszaros, Phillips, Volchenkov and Pothier.

Look at the totals of the forwards playing in front of that D. Heatley, Spezza and Alfredsson all produced, obviously, but look at the supporting cast forward-wise.

Schaefer 20 goals 50 points
Smolinski 20 goals 48 points
Mike Fisher 22 goals 44 points
Antoine Vermette 21 goals 33 points
Chris Neil 16 goals 33 points
Chris Kelly 10 goals 30 points
Patrick Eaves 20 goals 29 points
Vaclav Varada 5 goals 21 points

Combine that with a D with Redden scoring 10 goals, 50 points, Chara 16 goals, 43 points, Meszaros 10 goals, 39 points and Pothier 5 points and 35 points, and you'll see that even with Havlat, supposedly our #4 forward, missing most of the season we were the highest scoring team post-lock-out and remain so.

Heck, Phillips and Volchenkov put up 19 and 17 points respectively.

The players on Ottawa didn't magically get worse. Although I think that Fisher is overpaid and not a #4 forward, I think our forward core as a whole, especially when you factor in the strong play of Foligno and Winchester, is not as bad as we think it is.

So what's the difference? Obviously losing Redden and Chara hurts, but generally speaking there was a loss of A) Confidence and B) puck-movement.

Although each has had their own special trade-mark, every team post-lockout that has won the Cup has had great D and puck-movement to help them do so. Detroit last season, Anaheim before that, Carolina had great scoring depth and kinda lucked out with Ward, and Tampa before that have all had mobile, puck-moving blue-lines.

Top 3 teams this year? Boston, San Jose, Detroit. All have great puck-movement. Other high-ranking teams? Chicago, with guys like Campbell, Keith, Barker etc., Washington with Green et all, etc etc.

Obviously we have great primary scorers, even if it doesn't seem like it this year, and I think throughout the organization, especially with the incoming of guys like Regin, Zubov and Smith, we have a fairly decent supporting cast.

The puck-movement on the current team is dreadful, and although we're trying to fix that long-term with Lee, Wiercioch and especially Karlsson, I maintain that Hedman, for this reason (and because he can play D as well) should remain our pursuit.

Oh, I totally agree. The reason our offence sucks right now is because our D can't get the puck to them, no question.

The point I'm contesting is that Ottawa investing $20+ mil in 4 forwards has somehow prevented us from spending significant money on the backend. As I've shown, you look around the league, and there are all kinds of team spending almost as much, if not more, on the same amount of forwards, and yet they still manage to spend more on, and get more out of, their D.

The issue is, as I've said, middling contracts. Eliminate those, get young and cheap players to fill the 3rd and 4th lines, and spend the excess on a D or two. That's precisely the situation DET, BOS, and SJ is in right now.

rooneypoo wrote:

asq2 wrote:I'd argue that as much as the production of the supporting cast plays in, it's still really an issue of the D.

Boston, Detroit and San Jose all have tremendous puck-movement and this has translated into higher point totals for all of their forwards.

For proof of this, we can look back to the best blue-line Ottawa has ever assembled, the one of '05-'06 with Chara, good Redden and Meszaros, Phillips, Volchenkov and Pothier.

Look at the totals of the forwards playing in front of that D. Heatley, Spezza and Alfredsson all produced, obviously, but look at the supporting cast forward-wise.

Schaefer 20 goals 50 points
Smolinski 20 goals 48 points
Mike Fisher 22 goals 44 points
Antoine Vermette 21 goals 33 points
Chris Neil 16 goals 33 points
Chris Kelly 10 goals 30 points
Patrick Eaves 20 goals 29 points
Vaclav Varada 5 goals 21 points

Combine that with a D with Redden scoring 10 goals, 50 points, Chara 16 goals, 43 points, Meszaros 10 goals, 39 points and Pothier 5 points and 35 points, and you'll see that even with Havlat, supposedly our #4 forward, missing most of the season we were the highest scoring team post-lock-out and remain so.

Heck, Phillips and Volchenkov put up 19 and 17 points respectively.

The players on Ottawa didn't magically get worse. Although I think that Fisher is overpaid and not a #4 forward, I think our forward core as a whole, especially when you factor in the strong play of Foligno and Winchester, is not as bad as we think it is.

So what's the difference? Obviously losing Redden and Chara hurts, but generally speaking there was a loss of A) Confidence and B) puck-movement.

Although each has had their own special trade-mark, every team post-lockout that has won the Cup has had great D and puck-movement to help them do so. Detroit last season, Anaheim before that, Carolina had great scoring depth and kinda lucked out with Ward, and Tampa before that have all had mobile, puck-moving blue-lines.

Top 3 teams this year? Boston, San Jose, Detroit. All have great puck-movement. Other high-ranking teams? Chicago, with guys like Campbell, Keith, Barker etc., Washington with Green et all, etc etc.

Obviously we have great primary scorers, even if it doesn't seem like it this year, and I think throughout the organization, especially with the incoming of guys like Regin, Zubov and Smith, we have a fairly decent supporting cast.

The puck-movement on the current team is dreadful, and although we're trying to fix that long-term with Lee, Wiercioch and especially Karlsson, I maintain that Hedman, for this reason (and because he can play D as well) should remain our pursuit.

Oh, I totally agree. The reason our offence sucks right now is because our D can't get the puck to them, no question.

The point I'm contesting is that Ottawa investing $20+ mil in 4 forwards has somehow prevented us from spending significant money on the backend. As I've shown, you look around the league, and there are all kinds of team spending almost as much, if not more, on the same amount of forwards, and yet they still manage to spend more on, and get more out of, their D.

The issue is, as I've said, middling contracts. Eliminate those, get young and cheap players to fill the 3rd and 4th lines, and spend the excess on a D or two. That's precisely the situation DET, BOS, and SJ is in right now.

hemlock wrote:

The one problem I see with this is that you would keep having to juggle the smaller contracts. Then as younger players progress, they need to be paid to be retained. We've already seen cap casualties in Ottawa and other places, so based on that alone, I'd like to see the payroll more spread out. I don't mind carrying 3 $6-7 million salaries, but ideally, one is a forward, one a d-man and the other being a top end goaltender.

Of the 3 teams you brought up, only Detroit has been able to bring in guys from the farm system on a long term basis. SJ sucked for a few years before becoming this powerhouse, as did Boston. They built great systems but, you can see what that's done to their farm system now though, as neither are particularly great. Detroit on the other hand maximizes their scouting.

If the Sens do go into a full scale rebuild, I'd like to see the foundation of the franchise (scouting and coaching) really shored up. Spend whatever it takes. It's only going to cost a fraction of what the players make anyway, but as Detroit has proven, it's worth it. Anders Forsberg is a great start and seems to have gotten off to a great start with guys like Andre Petersson and Emil Sandin coming from the lower rounds. I think the team ought to identify who is the best and spend what it takes to get them in Ottawa. Poach from other organizations if need be. That's step one in a full scale rebuild imo.