Ottawa Senators (present and past) TIDBITS & QUICK HITS!

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote: I don't foresee Karlsson signing in SJ and Thornton will probably retire. Both big blows to the Sharks. Need to stop focusing on what could have been and focus on what can be. It's the only way to make it as a Sens fan right now

This is a good post, and yes, there's certainly long-term hope for the Sens with some important prospects already in place. Our long-term hope, though, will only amount to something if Melnyk leaves. We all assume this will happen sooner or later, but until it does, things will generally suck.

tim1_2 wrote:I won't argue that there's been a lack of foresight.  But I like Tkachuk and I'm happy to have him.  

It would've been a helluva ballsy PR move to give up the 4th overall pick in 2018 during season ticket sale time in the summer, basically committing yourself to be a basement team this season.

Way to run a franchise.... let’s Diddle up the future in order to maybe rescue a thousand season seats (which probably didn’t even happen)

tim1_2 wrote:

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote: I don't foresee Karlsson signing in SJ and Thornton will probably retire. Both big blows to the Sharks. Need to stop focusing on what could have been and focus on what can be. It's the only way to make it as a Sens fan right now

This is a good post, and yes, there's certainly long-term hope for the Sens with some important prospects already in place.  Our long-term hope, though, will only amount to something if Melnyk leaves.  We all assume this will happen sooner or later, but until it does, things will generally suck.  

And that IF is getting less and less plausible. That idiot has screwed the value of this deal and can probably run a bottom cap franchise on half packed arenas, TV revenues and expansion fees for a long time to come. If he can’t don’t discount him trying to look at sale via relocation to « maintain » the illusion of NHL worth for franchise which is something Bettman might come to accept.

They won't relocate from the nation's capital if there are willing buyers. The problem is the franchise is probably worth less than the expansion fees when you consider land valuation, the building, etc. So the league won't let a new franchise in while an existing franchise is sold for 2/3rds the cost.

* A quick note on my last point. Remember that Tkachuk was taken after Svechniokov who has been less than impressive this year. The draft is a crapshoot **

I can see a 'hockey deal' being done with St. Louis which would involve Anderson. St. Louis has a lot of guys locked up long-term and can't rebuild the same way Ottawa can. They more or less have a 2-3 year window with their current roster. They unfortunately don't have their 1st rd pick (currently 4th overall which no one is talking about for Ryan O'Reilly...). Carolina is another team I can see the Sens making a hockey deal with. Lots of young talent. Logan Brown is from Carolina and they are looking for offense, a goalie, and are stacked on D with Bean and Fleury not yet on the team.

I am also half-expecting to roll into next season with a lineup similar to this:

Tkachuk-White-Stone
Dzingel-Glass/Norris-Batherson
Formenton-Pageau-Ryan
Balcers-Smith-Chlapik

Chabot-DeMelo
Wolanin-Sbisa
Lajoie-Jaros

Mrazek
Hogberg

Note I've omitted Duchene, Tierney, Ceci, Boro, Harpur, Falk, Paajarvi, Paul from the list.

I know this never happens. But let’s assume two hypotheticals. 1) stone wants to sign and 2) the sens offer him the right contract with proper AAV and bonuses etc. In this scenario, would it not make all the sense in the world for both sens and stone to agree to trade him at the deadline to help the future of the club? Again I know it’s highly unlikely, but that’s what I would do if I was in the players shoes. Leaving the team for three or four months to gain assets for the team. Just brainstorming here. The only issue is I don’t know if you could let the public know that’s the plan

Ev wrote:I know this never happens. But let’s assume two hypotheticals. 1) stone wants to sign and 2) the sens offer him the right contract with proper AAV and bonuses etc. In this scenario, would it not make all the sense in the world for both sens and stone to agree to trade him at the deadline to help the future of the club? Again I know it’s highly unlikely, but that’s what I would do if I was in the players shoes. Leaving the team for three or four months to gain assets for the team. Just brainstorming here. The only issue is I don’t know if you could let the public know that’s the plan

As you said, this never happens. Plekanec is the only recent example that comes to mind.

You're right in saying that it makes sense, but it just won't happen. Also, I don't think you could let anyone know this plan in advance, and also why would Stone trust Melnyk?

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:* A quick note on my last point. Remember that Tkachuk was taken after Svechniokov who has been less than impressive this year. The draft is a crapshoot **

I can see a 'hockey deal' being done with St. Louis which would involve Anderson. St. Louis has a lot of guys locked up long-term and can't rebuild the same way Ottawa can. They more or less have a 2-3 year window with their current roster. They unfortunately don't have their 1st rd pick (currently 4th overall which no one is talking about for Ryan O'Reilly...). Carolina is another team I can see the Sens making a hockey deal with. Lots of young talent. Logan Brown is from Carolina and they are looking for offense, a goalie, and are stacked on D with Bean and Fleury not yet on the team.

I am also half-expecting to roll into next season with a lineup similar to this:

Tkachuk-White-Stone
Dzingel-Glass/Norris-Batherson
Formenton-Pageau-Ryan
Balcers-Smith-Chlapik

Chabot-DeMelo
Wolanin-Sbisa
Lajoie-Jaros

Mrazek
Hogberg

Note I've omitted Duchene, Tierney, Ceci, Boro, Harpur, Falk, Paajarvi, Paul from the list.

I don’t see a world where St. Louis trades to make the team better this season. If anything they’ll be looking to unload vets at the deadline and retool on the fly. They’re looking at a 1-2 year retool if you ask me.

tim1_2 wrote:

Ev wrote:I know this never happens. But let’s assume two hypotheticals. 1) stone wants to sign and 2) the sens offer him the right contract with proper AAV and bonuses etc. In this scenario, would it not make all the sense in the world for both sens and stone to agree to trade him at the deadline to help the future of the club? Again I know it’s highly unlikely, but that’s what I would do if I was in the players shoes. Leaving the team for three or four months to gain assets for the team. Just brainstorming here. The only issue is I don’t know if you could let the public know that’s the plan

As you said, this never happens.  Plekanec is the only recent example that comes to mind.  

You're right in saying that it makes sense, but it just won't happen.  Also, I don't think you could let anyone know this plan in advance, and also why would Stone trust Melnyk?

Yeah... this is a pipe dream. This has almost never happened. Unless as it’s been stated with a guy at the end of his career with no other suitors

tim1_2 wrote:

Ev wrote:I know this never happens. But let’s assume two hypotheticals. 1) stone wants to sign and 2) the sens offer him the right contract with proper AAV and bonuses etc. In this scenario, would it not make all the sense in the world for both sens and stone to agree to trade him at the deadline to help the future of the club? Again I know it’s highly unlikely, but that’s what I would do if I was in the players shoes. Leaving the team for three or four months to gain assets for the team. Just brainstorming here. The only issue is I don’t know if you could let the public know that’s the plan

As you said, this never happens.  Plekanec is the only recent example that comes to mind.  

You're right in saying that it makes sense, but it just won't happen.  Also, I don't think you could let anyone know this plan in advance, and also why would Stone trust Melnyk?

I'm not sure why trusting Melnyk matters. If he backed out of the agreement, he just goes and signs somewhere else. In this scenario, the agreed upon contract includes a NTC.

I know it won't happen, I just wish it did. Look at Tavares, guy could have been traded for a lot at the deadline and then came back to NYI who are vastly improved with a weak roster. He "wanted to win", well I think he could have done that in NYI if he did the scenario aboce

So what do you guys feel is the market for stone and Duchene?

If they are traded what do you expect?

IMO those guys go for a first plus an above average prospect + another top pick if he resigns
Or a top prospect and 2nd rounder plus a first if he resigns.

I look at what Vermette fit when he was traded to Chicago as a rental and think the value is way north of that from there. Best case scenario if they are traded is that they pre-organized the extension and we can probably add a pick or prospect on top of those deals.
If that were the case there would be bidding wars that might surprise.

Flo The Action wrote:So what do you guys feel is the market for stone and Duchene?

If they are traded what do you expect?

IMO those guys go for a first plus an above average prospect + another top pick if he resigns
Or a top prospect and 2nd rounder plus a first if he resigns.

I look at what Vermette fit when he was traded to Chicago as a rental and think the value is way north of that from there. Best case scenario if they are traded is that they pre-organized the extension and we can probably add a pick or prospect on top of those deals.
If that were the case there would be bidding wars that might surprise.

I honestly have no idea, it seems to be different every year. One year Gaustad was traded for a 1st.

I still hope we keep them both.

I would expect a big haul for either guy.  Probably slightly more for Stone.

I'm talking like a 1st, a really good prospect, and then a 2nd, or another good prospect. If there's a salary dump coming back, the Sens are going to be careful about that (Melnyk and his $$$) then I'd want more more more.

Lagoon wrote:

wprager wrote:It would be hindsight to prove your point, but not mine.

Show me the comments at the time of the draft or shortly before that said we should trade the #4 l overall.

I'll wait.

I’m good. I don’t even know what you are trying to say anyway. It is fairly common knowledge that All-Star and I said the Sens should (and would) give Colorado 2018 if they had any clue. The Sens proved us wrong and made the terrible decision to draft a decent winger in 2018 instead of one of all the franchise C’s, one franchise W and one franchise D available this year.

Trying to understand what you said. Who is the franchise D? I assume you meant Hughes as the franchise C, so the big caveat there will be to insert "at most an 18% chance". Who is the franchise W? Are you talking about Petterson? I don't think anyone saw that coming.

With last night's win (without Duchene, Chabot or Anderson) we are no longer giving Colorado the 18%. I suspect that's going to continue changing throughout the season, but one thing is certain, it will never get higher than 18%.

wprager wrote:

Lagoon wrote:

wprager wrote:It would be hindsight to prove your point, but not mine.

Show me the comments at the time of the draft or shortly before that said we should trade the #4 l overall.

I'll wait.

I’m good. I don’t even know what you are trying to say anyway. It is fairly common knowledge that All-Star and I said the Sens should (and would) give Colorado 2018 if they had any clue. The Sens proved us wrong and made the terrible decision to draft a decent winger in 2018 instead of one of all the franchise C’s, one franchise W and one franchise D available this year.

Trying to understand what you said. Who is the franchise D? I assume you meant Hughes as the franchise C, so the big caveat there will be to insert "at most an 18% chance".  Who is the franchise W? Are you talking about Petterson? I don't think anyone saw that coming.

You are so lost it isn’t even worth trying to fix your reading comprehension. Petterson? I assume you mean Pettersson...but how he even came into this conversation when he was drafted in 2017 is beyond my scope of caring.

Ev wrote:

tim1_2 wrote:

Ev wrote:I know this never happens. But let’s assume two hypotheticals. 1) stone wants to sign and 2) the sens offer him the right contract with proper AAV and bonuses etc. In this scenario, would it not make all the sense in the world for both sens and stone to agree to trade him at the deadline to help the future of the club? Again I know it’s highly unlikely, but that’s what I would do if I was in the players shoes. Leaving the team for three or four months to gain assets for the team. Just brainstorming here. The only issue is I don’t know if you could let the public know that’s the plan

As you said, this never happens.  Plekanec is the only recent example that comes to mind.  

You're right in saying that it makes sense, but it just won't happen.  Also, I don't think you could let anyone know this plan in advance, and also why would Stone trust Melnyk?

I'm not sure why trusting Melnyk matters. If he backed out of the agreement, he just goes and signs somewhere else. In this scenario, the agreed upon contract includes a NTC.

I know it won't happen, I just wish it did. Look at Tavares, guy could have been traded for a lot at the deadline and then came back to NYI who are vastly improved with a weak roster. He "wanted to win", well I think he could have done that in NYI if he did the scenario aboce

I’d absolutely love if players started thinking like this. Hockey is a business and business is good when you win. Help your team at all costs.

anyone see if Duchene will play Saturday?

Ev wrote:anyone see if Duchene will play Saturday?

I didn’t think he was even on the road with them, but that doesn’t matter all the time. As of now, 0% chance in my opinion.