GDT - Game #46: Caps @ Sens, Jan 24, 2017, 7:30pm

Ev!  Nice of you to stop in!

PTFlea wrote:

Ev wrote:Sens are legit. We're gonna add another piece I feel. This is the best the team has looked since the Cup year.

What kind of a piece though?  I doubt any huge piece.

I'm a little worried that they'll skimp and stay away from a guy like Duchene to go after someone they feel is the next best thing like Hanzal or something like that. Then we'll only go so far and be left to watch whoever makes the big move go ALL. THE. WAY!

James Tanner, Hockeybuzz:

For the last few weeks, the Capitals have been scoring at a pace we rarely see in the NHL. They can seemingly score at will against every team in the NHL - except the Ottawa Senators.

The Caps have played the Senators three times so far this January. They beat them 2-1 and 1-0, before falling 3-0 in last night's game. (Which was, by the way, the only game the Capitals have lost in regulation since December 27th when they lost to the Islanders.

What is bizarre about this is the scores the Capitals have put up in games not against the Senators since December 31st:

6-2 vs NJ
6-5 vs Tor
5-0 vs Col
4-1 vs Mtl
5-2 vs Pgh
6-0 vs Chi
5-0 vs Phi
7-8 vs Pgh
7-3 vs Stl
4-3 vs Dal
6-1 vs Carolina

SeawaySensFan wrote:

PTFlea wrote:

Ev wrote:Sens are legit. We're gonna add another piece I feel. This is the best the team has looked since the Cup year.

What kind of a piece though?  I doubt any huge piece.

I'm a little worried that they'll skimp and stay away from a guy like Duchene to go after someone they feel is the next best thing like Hanzal or something like that. Then we'll only go so far and be left to watch whoever makes the big move go ALL. THE. WAY!

If the Sens are serious about being put back on the hockey map, they will add Duchene:

1. They have the cap room
2. They have the need for a center/winger in the top-six
3. They have the prospects to make it happen (Brown, White, Chlapik, Chabot, Dahlen, Perron, Paul, Englund)
4. They have the pieces to make it happen (Lazar, Ceci, 1st rd pick)
5. They have a $7.25M/annum guy that they need to get going somehow
6. They have the best defenceman in the NHL looking for a reason to stay
7. Attendance has improved because the team has been playing well. This would give the fans a reason to go to games.
8. If the Sens make the playoffs (and go far) Melnyk lines his pocket with cash
9. Duchene @ $6M = Kelly ($900K), Neil ($1.5), Mac ($3.72M insurance picks up),
10. I suspect Toronto will add Tavares next off-season. We need to set the precedent now and be the team to beat in the division

If they trae Ceci, White and a pick for Duchesne it makes us worse this year and next.

Oglethorpe wrote:If they trae Ceci, White and a pick for Duchesne it makes us worse this year and next.  

It really doesn't. Ceci is not a very good player. Having said that, I wouldn't give up more than Ceci and a 1st for Duchene. We'd have to rent a guy until Chabot is ready. But adding Duchene and subtracting Ceci is a net benefit.

SeawaySensFan wrote:

Oglethorpe wrote:If they trae Ceci, White and a pick for Duchesne it makes us worse this year and next.  

It really doesn't. Ceci is not a very good player. Having said that, I wouldn't give up more than Ceci and a 1st for Duchene. We'd have to rent a guy until Chabot is ready. But adding Duchene and subtracting Ceci is a net benefit.

Ceci is so much better than you give him credit for being.

Oglethorpe wrote:

SeawaySensFan wrote:

Oglethorpe wrote:If they trae Ceci, White and a pick for Duchesne it makes us worse this year and next.  

It really doesn't. Ceci is not a very good player. Having said that, I wouldn't give up more than Ceci and a 1st for Duchene. We'd have to rent a guy until Chabot is ready. But adding Duchene and subtracting Ceci is a net benefit.

Ceci is so much better than you give him credit for being.  

I may be a little hard on him for sure but he's not a player that's going to make or break this lineup.

SeawaySensFan wrote:

Oglethorpe wrote:

SeawaySensFan wrote:

Oglethorpe wrote:If they trae Ceci, White and a pick for Duchesne it makes us worse this year and next.  

It really doesn't. Ceci is not a very good player. Having said that, I wouldn't give up more than Ceci and a 1st for Duchene. We'd have to rent a guy until Chabot is ready. But adding Duchene and subtracting Ceci is a net benefit.

Ceci is so much better than you give him credit for being.  

I may be a little hard on him for sure but he's not a player that's going to make or break this lineup.

Agreed. Ceci doesn't make or break the lineup. But honestly, I think Ceci is off the table right now if the Sens are serious about making a playoff run. So is Chabot for future potential purposes. If I had to give up one of them though, it would be Ceci without a doubt.

But we're all speculating on trade value. Hall was traded straight up for a top-four 'underrated' defenceman. So yes, Colorado's asking price is going to be really high, but the actual cost of Duchene if/when he is traded could be significantly lower. Some comparables:

- Spezza got traded for two prospects (Paul, Guptill), Chiasson, and a 2nd (Gagne).
- Ryan got traded for Silfverberg, Noesen, and a 1st (Ritchie)

So is getting Duchene for Englund, White, Lazar and a 1st any worse than those trades?

Either way, I think we're overvaluing Duchene's worth on the trade market. Yes, I think he is a better player than both Ryan and Spezza but with the expansion draft looming and teams close to the cap ceiling, not a lot of people can add Duchene without sending salary back - something Colorado probably doesn't want to do if they don't plan on protecting them.

Expansion Draft, protect:

Forwards: Stone, Turris, Hoffman, Duchene, Brassard, Smith, Pageau
Defencemen: Karlsson, Methot, Ceci
Goalies: Condon (yes, I think we re-sign and protect him. Anderson is 36 and a UFA after next season)

Vegas could then take Ryan or Phaneuf (cap relief), Wideman, Lazar, Dzingel or Boro, (all replaceable)

I'd be okay losing any of the above players knowing we have Duchene in the lineup and Chabot/Claesson in the minors

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:

SeawaySensFan wrote:

Oglethorpe wrote:

SeawaySensFan wrote:

Oglethorpe wrote:If they trae Ceci, White and a pick for Duchesne it makes us worse this year and next.  

It really doesn't. Ceci is not a very good player. Having said that, I wouldn't give up more than Ceci and a 1st for Duchene. We'd have to rent a guy until Chabot is ready. But adding Duchene and subtracting Ceci is a net benefit.

Ceci is so much better than you give him credit for being.  

I may be a little hard on him for sure but he's not a player that's going to make or break this lineup.

Agreed. Ceci doesn't make or break the lineup. But honestly, I think Ceci is off the table right now if the Sens are serious about making a playoff run. So is Chabot for future potential purposes. If I had to give up one of them though, it would be Ceci without a doubt.

But we're all speculating on trade value. Hall was traded straight up for a top-four 'underrated' defenceman. So yes, Colorado's asking price is going to be really high, but the actual cost of Duchene if/when he is traded could be significantly lower. Some comparables:

- Spezza got traded for two prospects (Paul, Guptill), Chiasson, and a 2nd (Gagne).
- Ryan got traded for Silfverberg, Noesen, and a 1st (Ritchie)

So is getting Duchene for Englund, White, Lazar and a 1st any worse than those trades?

Either way, I think we're overvaluing Duchene's worth on the trade market. Yes, I think he is a better player than both Ryan and Spezza but with the expansion draft looming and teams close to the cap ceiling, not a lot of people can add Duchene without sending salary back - something Colorado probably doesn't want to do if they don't plan on protecting them.

Expansion Draft, protect:

Forwards: Stone, Turris, Hoffman, Duchene, Brassard, Smith, Pageau
Defencemen: Karlsson, Methot, Ceci
Goalies: Condon (yes, I think we re-sign and protect him. Anderson is 36 and a UFA after next season)

Vegas could then take Ryan or Phaneuf (cap relief), Wideman, Lazar, Dzingel or Boro, (all replaceable)

I'd be okay losing any of the above players knowing we have Duchene in the lineup and Chabot/Claesson in the minors

Wow. There's so much of that scenario that doesn't happen. A your proposal. It is so underwhelming. No way is the d-man on that deal Englund. It's either Ceci or chabot. And if it's ceci I doubt it's this season. Maybe before the expansion draft though. The key thing you are missing in your analysis is that Duchesne has no control of his destination the way a player like Spezza had. He's also younger and his value is much higher.

I think we could trade for duch but if it happens now it will hurt us somewhat in the now by loosing ceci in season. Something that we might be able to address better in the off season

He may be a better player than Spezza and Ryan now, but not at the time of the trade. Spezza scored 33 goals last season and has been mid-60s in points last three years (will be close again this year). Ryan was a 4-time 30+ scorer.

But I agree with your point that Duchene (or Landeskog) are not worth as much as the Avs apparently want. They will find out sooner or later.

Ceci is a young RHS d-man still developing while playing 25 minutes on a team that's second in their Division while both their #1 and backup are out. Does he make mistakes? Of course, and probably more than a guy who only plays 12 minutes. He was considered a bit of a steal at 15th overall and his development is supporting that stance. Is he "there"? No, of course not, but he is on his way. A d-man with his qualifications and potential is worth a lot more than a forward, unless you are talking about elite. Duchene is good but not elite. Hall for Larsson did happen. It's not at all out of the realm of possibility that Ceci for Duchene straight up could happen. Probably won't but could.