Predict Spezza's return

Wow, Dallas mentioned in passing once -- we were so totally off on this one it's not even funny. To come out now and say this was a great deal because of those prospects we are getting is to completely deny what you were saying earlier.

Regardless of whether these prospects turn into NHLers or not, we got fleeced royally and anyone saying otherwise (you know who you are) is completely backtracking from their positions in this thread.

We didn't get a 1st. We didn't get a top prospect (we got a 7th and 9th from a team ranked 9th -- respectable, but hardly "top"). And the roster player we got has one season under his belt -- i.e. a completely unproven commodity.

I'm fine to move on, but don't pretend like this is great.

It is great that we got rid of Jason spezza and I wouldn't use some rankings to show what kind of value the prospect have.

Saying we got fleeced royally is totally wrong.

wprager wrote:Wow, Dallas mentioned in passing once -- we were so totally off on this one it's not even funny.  To come out now and say this was a great deal because of those prospects we are getting is to completely deny what you were saying earlier.

Regardless of whether these prospects turn into NHLers or not, we got fleeced royally and anyone saying otherwise (you know who you are) is completely backtracking from their positions in this thread.

We didn't get a 1st.  We didn't get a top prospect (we got a 7th and 9th from a team ranked 9th -- respectable, but hardly "top").  And the roster player we got has one season under his belt -- i.e. a completely unproven commodity.

I'm fine to move on, but don't pretend like this is great.  

It's important not to make the assessment of whether or not we won this trade based on past and current point production. If Ottawa makes the playoffs next year, they win since the team as a whole improved. They freed up cap space allowing them to sign Legwand, they got another 2nd rd pick, three guys who can potentially make an impact at the NHL level, and now the chance to make your team about hardwork instead of all about Spezza.

I was actually very pro Spezza trade, though I have admittedly been very upset about where this team is heading. The reason I was pro Spezza trade was mainly because I couldn't stand the guy and was happy to see him go. IMO, this trade is a win if not for that reason only.

tim1_2 wrote:I predict Spezza's return will be a 2nd line NHLer (TJ Oshie type) and either a good prospect OR a 1st rounder.

I was pretty much bang on, as usual.

DefenceWinsChampionships wrote:

wprager wrote:Wow, Dallas mentioned in passing once -- we were so totally off on this one it's not even funny.  To come out now and say this was a great deal because of those prospects we are getting is to completely deny what you were saying earlier.

Regardless of whether these prospects turn into NHLers or not, we got fleeced royally and anyone saying otherwise (you know who you are) is completely backtracking from their positions in this thread.

We didn't get a 1st.  We didn't get a top prospect (we got a 7th and 9th from a team ranked 9th -- respectable, but hardly "top").  And the roster player we got has one season under his belt -- i.e. a completely unproven commodity.

I'm fine to move on, but don't pretend like this is great.  

It's important not to make the assessment of whether or not we won this trade based on past and current point production. If Ottawa makes the playoffs next year, they win since the team as a whole improved. They freed up cap space allowing them to sign Legwand, they got another 2nd rd pick, three guys who can potentially make an impact at the NHL level, and now the chance to make your team about hardwork instead of all about Spezza.

I was actually very pro Spezza trade, though I have admittedly been very upset about where this team is heading. The reason I was pro Spezza trade was mainly because I couldn't stand the guy and was happy to see him go. IMO, this trade is a win if not for that reason only.

You're telling me to ignore points while mentioning standings. But you are assuming that the team's standing with Spezza in 2014-15 will be the same as it was in 2013-14.

The way the East is, they'd make the playoffs with or without Spezza -- all it would take is MacLean coaching like he did before, using the right players, or Anderson playing like a #1, or Lehner going back into #BeastMode.

the thing that's not being talked about much is spezza playing in the west. I think he got away with playing his style in the east because it's a lot less physical. unless he pulls a complete 180 i honestly can't see him being better or even as good then he was here. he's gonna be facing harder games which are a lot more physical. if you ask me he's gonna fall way off as far as how effective he can be. they are going to have to surround him with guys that can insulate him.

Flo The Action wrote:the thing that's not being talked about much is spezza playing in the west. I think he got away with playing his style in the east because it's a lot less physical. unless he pulls a complete 180 i honestly can't see him being better or even as good then he was here. he's gonna be facing harder games which are a lot more physical. if you ask me he's gonna fall way off as far as how effective he can be. they are going to have to surround him with guys that can insulate him.

Tough to say. He'll be insulated by Benn + Seguin, playing L2 minutes -- and he'll presumably play the 1PP unit with those guys. He'll likely be playing with Hemsky and a guy like Nichuskin or Roussel. I could see him thriving in those circumstances. The X factor will be how much of a difference playing in the West makes.

Will definitely be interesting to see how he does.

Flo The Action wrote:the thing that's not being talked about much is spezza playing in the west. I think he got away with playing his style in the east because it's a lot less physical. unless he pulls a complete 180 i honestly can't see him being better or even as good then he was here. he's gonna be facing harder games which are a lot more physical. if you ask me he's gonna fall way off as far as how effective he can be. they are going to have to surround him with guys that can insulate him.

Thornton, Sharp, Carter, Seguin. Lots of examples.

wprager wrote:

Flo The Action wrote:the thing that's not being talked about much is spezza playing in the west. I think he got away with playing his style in the east because it's a lot less physical. unless he pulls a complete 180 i honestly can't see him being better or even as good then he was here. he's gonna be facing harder games which are a lot more physical. if you ask me he's gonna fall way off as far as how effective he can be. they are going to have to surround him with guys that can insulate him.

Thornton, Sharp, Carter, Seguin.  Lots of examples.

examples of what? i didn't try to make examples. i'm skeptical that he can handle playing in the west and that playing out there will take a faster toll on his body. paired up with Hemsky? even more. they will have to pair him with someone that does a lot of the dirty work and yes, spezza could in a short order become a PP guy and only that

I'm basically calling BS on all this talk about how the West is so much bigger, faster, harder, better. It's cyclical.

None of those players are big and physical

So you're saying that big and physical players who have success in the East will also have success in the West, but small and/or finesse players who have success in the East will fail in the West? Seguin is not Marty St. Louis, for sure, but he is a finesse player more than a physical power forward. Thornton is big but, just like Spezza, not very physical. He will stand in there and absorb the hits to make the play but doesn't go out of his way to deliver hits. He's been pretty successful (but, of course, since he hasn't won a Cup he's just another loser).

Please provide examples of skill players who excelled in the East and failed in the West.

For the record, in 2011-12 (a good year for Spezza) he was 5-20-25 in 22 games against the West (counting Winnipeg as West since they are now; counting Detroit as well, since they were good). A quick check for the 5 years before that (excluding Winnipeg this time) he had 57 points in 67 games -- so, given he is a PPG player over his career I'd say his production does go down playing out West. But don't forget that he'll be playing 2LC behind Seguin, so I'd expect the level of competition he faces to be lower this time around.

wprager wrote:So you're saying that big and physical players who have success in the East will also have success in the West, but small and/or finesse players who have success in the East will fail in the West?   Seguin is not Marty St. Louis, for sure, but he is a finesse player more than a physical power forward.  Thornton is big but, just like Spezza, not very physical.  He will stand in there and absorb the hits to make the play but doesn't go out of his way to deliver hits.  He's been pretty successful (but, of course, since he hasn't won a Cup he's just another loser).

Please provide examples of skill players who excelled in the East and failed in the West.

For the record, in 2011-12 (a good year for Spezza) he was 5-20-25 in 22 games against the West (counting Winnipeg as West since they are now; counting Detroit as well, since they were good).  A quick check for the 5 years before that (excluding Winnipeg this time) he had 57 points in 67 games -- so, given he is a PPG player over his career I'd say his production does go down playing out West.  But don't forget that he'll be playing 2LC behind Seguin, so I'd expect the level of competition he faces to be lower this time around.

I don't think this logic applies to every player as a whole, but if you look at the Oilers, they're stacked with skill but have no size. That's only one team in the West. Vancouver was never overly physical but they managed to make it to the cup final.

For Spezza, he's going to have to transition to playing against teams more focused on a physical game. Boston is really the only team in the East that I would compare to LA, Anaheim, SJ, Chicago in terms of the style they play. He's one good hit (Dustin Brown?) away from another back injury and I think playing in the West will be the demise of his career. He'll put up points when healthy, but I think his health won't hold up for him as long as it would have in the East.

The Oilers woes have more to do with bad goaltending, bad defense, bad team defesive play than player size.

Spezza may not be a heavy hitter but he's a big boy (6'3" and 220 lbs) and can absorb a hit. He'll be fine.

Don't how much it was brought up, but looking back at the Heatley trade just about everyone thought Ottawa got screwed. In hindsight it wasn't that bad, in fact when you add in Andy Sutton that we traded the pick for.

I know it wasn't a great deal, but turned out not as bad as everyone thought. We all said it at the time. When it becomes public that the player with a ntc wants out, you are screwed and will almost never get fair value back.

I think this deal is much like that one...5 years from now we will look back and say it wasn't that bad, however for me it's not going to be in the players we got back, but the cap it opened up and the change in culture that attracted a different blend of players to our city

Michalek vs Heatley was a straight up win for the Sens.

NEELY wrote:Michalek vs Heatley was a straight up win for the Sens.

I think looking back it was, but I don't remember too many crowing about it...