Bettman: "Salary Cap will NOT go down next year"; and GMHockey investigates NHL attendance

All anyone needs to know is that the Masons and the Bilderbergs will ultimately decide where the economy is headed. Your arguments are futile.

SeawaySensFan wrote:All anyone needs to know is that the Masons and the Bilderbergs will ultimately decide where the economy is headed. Your arguments are futile.

@SSF> thank goodness you showed up to remind us of the utter futility of our ways.

And y'know, I didn't realize Steve and Chris Mason had such influence in the hockey world.

Thanks also for bringing up the Bilderberg Brothers. For our fellow members not as conversant as you in these matters, Buddy and Bertie Bilderberg were the 1930's version of smashmouth defensemen, they of the old Brooklyn Americans, before they began their careers on Wall Street.

Their son, B. Bradley Bilderberg, is a shadowy figure who secretly controlls all thirty NHL teams, from his castle in the mountains of Bavaria.

C'mon... we all know who controls the cap...



Yep. The Stonecutters.

davetherave wrote:

SeawaySensFan wrote:All anyone needs to know is that the Masons and the Bilderbergs will ultimately decide where the economy is headed. Your arguments are futile.

@SSF> thank goodness you showed up to remind us of the utter futility of our ways.

And y'know, I didn't realize Steve and Chris Mason had such influence in the hockey world.

Thanks also for bringing up the Bilderberg Brothers. For our fellow members not as conversant as you in these matters, Buddy and Bertie Bilderberg were the 1930's version of smashmouth defensemen, they of the old Brooklyn Americans, before they began their careers on Wall Street.

Their son, B. Bradley Bilderberg, is a shadowy figure who secretly controlls all thirty NHL teams, from his castle in the mountains of Bavaria.

Welcome to forum, Steve Carlton!

davetherave wrote:

wprager wrote:Market data? Are you serious? The Sens had around 12,000 season ticket holders last year. Ottawa/Gatineau has nearly 1 million people. Assuming 2.5 people per household that's 400,000 households. Many season ticket holders buy tickets in pairs, but the 12,000 is "equivalents" so includes guys who purchase quarter-season tickets. Even if all 12,000 bought quarter season tickets that would be 48,000 households with quarter-season tickets. We know that's no-where the true number (like I said, many buy two seats). But even in that worst, unimaginable case, you'd have 352,000 households not making season tickets a priority. That's 88% -- pretty close to a "vast majority". Montreal is a city three times as big, and I'd say their season ticket sales are less than double that of Ottawa. And I don't believe they have all seats sold as season tickets, so that means there are season tickets available but no buyers. Yes, I am ignoring the fact that there are some people who want season tickets but not in the upper bowl, so they are, perhaps, on a waiting list. Toronto certainly falls into that category in a big way, but even there, in a city of 5 million, I don't believe the waiting list includes anywhere near 1 million households (roughly half -- very roughly, as I don't even know the population of the GTA).

Moving south I would expect those percentages to go way, way higher in some markets.

So when I say the vast majority, I think I am very much correct.

Well, using "Pragernomics", you have a data resource which is as vast as your ability to make assumptions and express your opinions--which are never less than entertaining.


But you have no hard market data about the 30 NHL markets, nor have you cited any data regarding the spending patterns of hockey fans in North America.

And no, I'm not kidding.

I've taken the personality tests and they tell me that I'm an intuitive thinker. My intuition has served me well in the past. But then there's always project managers like yourself who insist on facts. You'll have facts in 6 months. In the meantime, I'll stick with my intuition.

wprager wrote:

davetherave wrote:Well, using "Pragernomics", you have a data resource which is as vast as your ability to make assumptions and express your opinions--which are never less than entertaining.


But you have no hard market data about the 30 NHL markets, nor have you cited any data regarding the spending patterns of hockey fans in North America.

And no, I'm not kidding.

I've taken the personality tests and they tell me that I'm an intuitive thinker. My intuition has served me well in the past. But then there's always project managers like yourself who insist on facts. You'll have facts in 6 months. In the meantime, I'll stick with my intuition.

Comrade Prager, the Central Committee thanks you, and we await your report.

One of you is making predictions based on history and an admittedly incomplete data set. The other is looking purely at known data, and ignoring the probabilities of outcome.

While I respect your statements, Dave, I'd argue that Prag's thesis has more merit.

As analogies:

If medicine was purely driven by the evidence, many antibiotics would not be available or used, as there is no morbidity/mortality data.

If law was driven purely by the known, instead of "beyond a reasonable doubt", then even DNA evidence would be insufficient, as it is possible, though not probable, that someone else could have the same DNA profile.

Dave - you suggest that we wait for more evidence. Prags is suggesting that the expectation be that of a flat to reduced revenue. The most likely scenario is that the executives at the top are preparing for multiple scenarios. It would appear, though, that the worst-case scenario is that of a flat or slightly lower revenue stream, and thus salary cap - is it not reasonable to plan according to this expectation, and adjust if interim analysis suggests a different outcome?

If they decide to wait for full data, then it is likely to be too late for the GMs to act. Far better to prepare for the most likely, then adjust along the way.

(BTW, in the interest of disclosure to mitigate the impact of bias, my personal opinion is that the cap will go up despite revenues going down, solely because the Canadian dollar should be near par for a while).

Acrobat wrote:One of you is making predictions based on history and an admittedly incomplete data set. The other is looking purely at known data, and ignoring the probabilities of outcome.

While I respect your statements, Dave, I'd argue that Prag's thesis has more merit.

As analogies:

If medicine was purely driven by the evidence, many antibiotics would not be available or used, as there is no morbidity/mortality data.

If law was driven purely by the known, instead of "beyond a reasonable doubt", then even DNA evidence would be insufficient, as it is possible, though not probable, that someone else could have the same DNA profile.

Dave - you suggest that we wait for more evidence. Prags is suggesting that the expectation be that of a flat to reduced revenue. The most likely scenario is that the executives at the top are preparing for multiple scenarios. It would appear, though, that the worst-case scenario is that of a flat or slightly lower revenue stream, and thus salary cap - is it not reasonable to plan according to this expectation, and adjust if interim analysis suggests a different outcome?

If they decide to wait for full data, then it is likely to be too late for the GMs to act. Far better to prepare for the most likely, then adjust along the way.

(BTW, in the interest of disclosure to mitigate the impact of bias, my personal opinion is that the cap will go up despite revenues going down, solely because the Canadian dollar should be near par for a while).

@Acro> sorry, but you're misstating my position.

I am not ignoring 'probabilities'. I am challenging the assumptions that Prager makes based on his lack of empirical data.

The salary cap is an artificial ceiling set by the owners, partly to control the rise in player compensation. If you go back and look at what was being spent pre-lockout, and the reasons for the player strike, the issue of the salary cap was a major point of contention.

Based on what has been written about the players' perspective on the salary cap and its impact (a significant number of FAs being unsigned, and more than a few FAs obliged to accept much lesser deals), it is entirely reasonable to suggest the NHLPA would fight a reduction in the salary cap.

If the NHL is stating it expects the salary cap to not drop or remain the same, it is also reasonable to deduce they have already done their forward projections for 2010.

If our good friend Prager believes he is correct in his assumptions, based purely on his intuition, then more power to him.

I believe the NHL has much more at its disposal than me and my trusted Google search bar. If they expect the salary cap to remain flat or go slightly up, then I believe they are correct. They could also be off a little in their projections, so there is a small chance that the salary cap would drop slightly.

That said, what I am *really* talking about is the possibility that hockey-related revenues will not continue growing like they have the last four years. Currency fluctuations are too complicated for me to discuss in detail, but a year or so ago Mlakar went and bought some USD when the loonie reached par with the greenback. Did other teams follow suit this year? Ouch, if they did. Or did they correctly predict the loonie's recent climb and bought some CDN instead? I honestly don't know (but I bet the NHL does).

I'm just looking at simple stats like attendance. I expect that fewer people will shell out cash for season tickets or single-game tickets, as well as merchandise. This may or may not affect attendance (giveaways, special pricing, etc.) but it does not change my prediction that there will be less money spent by individuals and corporate entities on hockey related purchases.

And I'll repeat, again, that does not necessarily imply that revenues will drop, although if the economy continues like this, that is the eventual outcome.

Some attendance woes:

http://thehockeynews.com/articles/28458-THNcom-Blog-Early-encouraging-and-discouraging-signs.html

2. Encouraging: The Phoenix Coyotes, winners of two of
their first three games, have already sold out their home-opener, which
is scheduled for Saturday night.

Discouraging:
There are some very real dark clouds in some places when it comes to
attendance. The Nashville Predators drew just 14,797 for their
home-opener Thursday night (keep in mind all struggling U.S. small
market teams inflate their attendance numbers). After selling out their
home-opener when they retired Joe Sakic’s number, the Colorado
Avalanche got just 13,146 out for their next game. The Tampa Bay
Lighting had more than 2,000 empty seats for its opener.

The Los
Angeles Kings had steady and drastic declines in the two games after
their home-opener and the Boston Bruins failed to sell out their second
and third home games of the season.

But the biggest shocker? The Ottawa Senators came up more than 1,000 short of a sellout in their first home game of the season.

This is not good news for a league that hoped to get through the economic downturn unscathed.

That sellout in Phoenix was fueled by heavy, heavy discounts. All tickets were $25 or less. Given that high-end tickets here go for $125 (I think?) that's a huge discount. Their next game attendance was 6,899, and keep in mind that they generally pad their attendance numbers by as much as 4,000.

More on Phoenix here:
http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/28606-THNcom-Blog-Attendance-woes-a-serious-concern.html

@Prager> seeing as you've already decided that NHL attendance and revenues are trending downward, this for your information. Source: KuklasKorner.com

NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE BEGINS 2009-10 SEASON BY RECORDING STRONG BUSINESS RESULTS ACROSS ALL LEAGUE PLATFORMS

League Continues Momentum As Fans Around The World Welcome Arrival Of A New Season

NEW YORK (October 6, 2009)

+ In less than a week, over 420,000 fans have attended NHL games.
+ VERSUS dropped the puck on its fifth year of coverage on Thursday with the most-watched NHL opening night in network history.
+ The Washington Capitals-Boston Bruins game on Thursday earned the highest rating ever for a regular-season game on VERSUS.
+ With the deployment of a new viewership-measurement system in Canada, the 57th season of CBC’s Hockey Night In Canada opened on Thursday with its largest opening night audience.
+ Through the first four days of October, Unique Visitors to NHL.com were up 68% compared to the first four days of October in 2008.
+ Video starts for NHL.com rose an incredible 130% during the first week of the season compared to the first week of last season.
+ Through the opening weekend of the season, orders for NHL GameCenter LIVE were up 70% from the same timeframe last season.
+ Overall merchandise sales for the four regular-season games in Europe during Compuware/NHL Premiere 2009 increased 52% from the comparable numbers in 2008. Per capita spending rose 73%.
+ Registrations on NHL.com for an opportunity to purchase tickets to the 2010 Bridgestone/NHL Winter Classic surpassed 307,000. That eclipsed the number of registrations for last season’s game by 25%.

Specific milestones reached during the opening weekend of the season included:

ATTENDANCE
Through the first 25 games this season arenas continued to be filled. Of the 21 games played in North America, 19 have been sellouts.

Of the teams who have played in North America, seventeen have posted attendance numbers above or even with the comparable number of games from last season, while eight teams have yet to play their home opener.

Over 250,000 fans attended NHL games on Saturday alone, as the League played 15 games in 15 cities in four countries on two continents. NHL teams played to 99% capacity during opening weekend.

Crowds flocked to both the Ericsson Globe Arena in Stockholm and Hartwall Arena in Helsinki to the tune of 51,282 fans for the four games.

TELEVISION RATINGS

VERSUS

VERSUS dropped the puck on its fifth year of coverage on Thursday and provided the most-watched NHL opening night in network history for the Washington Capitals-Boston Bruins and San Jose Sharks-Colorado Avalanche NHL doubleheader. VERSUS was one of the top-rated cable networks in all four local markets during the time period.

The Capitals-Bruins game set a new ratings record making it the highest rated regular-season game ever on VERSUS.

For its two-game coverage of Compuware/NHL Premiere 2009, VERSUS saw viewership increase 51% over its two-game coverage from Europe in 2008.

NHL ON CBC

With the deployment of a new viewership-measurement system in Canada, the 57th season of CBC’s Hockey Night In Canada opened on Thursday with its largest opening night audience.

NHL ON RDS

RDS on Thursday opened the season up more than 12% in viewers from the audience for the network’s first Montreal Canadiens broadcast last season.

LOCAL RIGHTSHOLDERS

With final numbers still being reported, local NHL rightsholders are posting records:

For the Bruins’ home game on Saturday against the Carolina Hurricanes, NESN earned the highest season-opening telecast in NESN’s 25 years of covering the team. NESN was the highest-rated network in the Boston market during the game, beating all other broadcast and cable networks.

On Fox Sports Pittsburgh, the rating for the New York Rangers-Pittsburgh Penguins game on Friday night, when the Penguins raised their Stanley Cup championship banner to the Mellon Arena rafters, was the highest ever for a Penguins season opening game telecast on the network.

NHL.COM

Fans flocked to NHL.com for extensive video and editorial coverage of Compuware/NHL Premiere in Europe, game highlights, player profiles, game reports and exclusive blogs.

Provided with unparalleled content, Unique Visitors to NHL.com increased 51% for the opening week of the 2009-10 season compared to the same timeframe for the 2008-09 season.

Video starts on NHL.com rose an incredible 130% compared to the first week of 2008.

Through the first four days of October, Unique Visitors to NHL.com were up 68% compared to the first four days of Oct. 2008.

NHL GAMECENTER LIVE

Through the opening weekend of the season, orders for NHL GameCenter LIVE, NHL.com’s subscription service that enables fans online access to live TV-quality streaming video coverage of out of market games, are up 70% from the same timeframe last season.

INTERNATIONAL MERCHANDISE

Overall merchandise sales for the four regular season games in Europe increased 52% from the comparable numbers in 2008. Per capita spending rose 73%.

In Helsinki, sales on Friday and Saturday broke the Hartwall Arena-record for highest merchandise sales ever for a hockey game at that venue. The previous record was held by the 2003 World Ice Hockey Championships.

Top-selling items included NHL Premiere knit hats, team jerseys, NHL Premiere caps, NHL Premiere short-sleeve and long-sleeve tees.

2010 BRIDGESTONE/NHL WINTER CLASSIC

Total registrations for the general public, random ticket drawing in the U.S. and the ticket purchase contest in Canada for an opportunity to purchase tickets to the 2010 Bridgestone/NHL Winter Classic surpassed 307,000. Registrations closed Oct. 5 and eclipsed the number of registrations for last season’s game by 25%.

If each person who registered was given the right to purchase 2 tickets, the NHL could host 15 Bridgestone/NHL Winter Classic games in Fenway Park and still not meet the ticket demand.

---

Should you decide to pursue your compilation of statistical data on the subject, having all possible sources at your disposal will no doubt be useful.

Удачи!

I'm one of those new NHL Gamecenter Live subscribers... but I won't be paying a dime... once the free trial runs out... see ya. No money from me. No revenue from me.

As far as attendance, yeah, it does seem to be pretty good on the average so far. There are trouble areas with Phoenix, Nashville, Tampa Bay and Columbus but if this keeps up, attendance should be fine.

shabbs wrote:I'm one of those new NHL Gamecenter Live subscribers... but I won't be paying a dime... once the free trial runs out... see ya. No money from me. No revenue from me.

Same here. Growing numbers by 70% is easy when the numbers are low and subscription is free.

Dave, rather than quoting your long post, I'll respond to a couple points here.

1. I never said attendance was down. What I did say was that attendance for the top-10 was down slightly from last year's average. Once I got home and used Excel I posted that attendance averages were actually up, slightly.

2. How nice of them to say that, using *new* ways to measure eyeballs, CBC HNIC's viewership is up. I really, really don't even know what more to say about that.

3. I fully expected viewership to be up in this economy. $4K for season tickets or $200 for CI? Not a very tough decision, is it? This may or may not translate to higher revenues, but not until the next TV contract.

shabbs wrote:As far as attendance, yeah, it does seem to be pretty good on the average so far. There are trouble areas with Phoenix, Nashville, Tampa Bay and Columbus but if this keeps up, attendance should be fine.

They said 17 teams were up or flat, with 8 teams yet to play their home opener. That means 5 teams are down. Like you said, there are always trouble spots and those did not change from last year. But seeing a team like the Senators *not* selling out their home opener is a little troubling to say the least.

wprager wrote: Dave, rather than quoting your long post, I'll respond to a couple points here.

1. I never said attendance was down. What I did say was that attendance for the top-10 was down slightly from last year's average. Once I got home and used Excel I posted that attendance averages were actually up, slightly.

2. How nice of them to say that, using *new* ways to measure eyeballs, CBC HNIC's viewership is up. I really, really don't even know what more to say about that.

3. I fully expected viewership to be up in this economy. $4K for season tickets or $200 for CI? Not a very tough decision, is it? This may or may not translate to higher revenues, but not until the next TV contract.

Comrade Prager, I simply provide you with information.


Your dogged focus on that singular aspect notwithstanding, the NHL, as enumerated in the previous post, derives its revenues from much more than attendance in its 30 cities.

Seeing as you are the self-appointed *Statsinator*, you may choose to include those ancillary revenues in your statistical calculations, or not.

You can rest assured those who calculate the revenues for the NHL, and decide where the salary cap will be, going forward, do.

The NHL makes most of it's money, not from ticket sales, but from agreements in place (TV and broadcasting rights, commercials, etc.) well in advance of the start of the season. If the NHL has managed to secure similar revenue here as last year, they should have a good chance at keeping the cap the same.

The flip side of the coin is, of course, the NHL has a vested interest in spreading the perception that its revenues are growing or staying the same, rather than shrinking. I'd be pretty skeptical of all stats coming from NHL head office until they're public and official.

rooneypoo wrote:The NHL makes most of it's money, not from ticket sales, but from agreements in place (TV and broadcasting rights, commercials, etc.) well in advance of the start of the season. If the NHL has managed to secure similar revenue here as last year, they should have a good chance at keeping the cap the same.

The flip side of the coin is, of course, the NHL has a vested interest in spreading the perception that its revenues are growing or staying the same, rather than shrinking. I'd be pretty skeptical of all stats coming from NHL head office until they're public and official.

@Rooney> skepticism is never a bad thing. The above figures cited in the item from Kuklas Korner were released to the public and are official statements of the NHL.