Las Vegas Rates the 09-10 NHL Standings

The Las Vegas Sun reports on the NHL rankings issued by the Las Vegas Hilton Sportsbook, released today:

The San Jose Sharks, who compiled the most points in the 2008-09 regular season (117), top the board at the Hilton with an over/under of 107.5 points for 2009-10, followed by the Detroit Red Wings (106.5), Chicago Blackhawks (105.5) and Washington Capitals (104.5).

The Bruins, who led the Eastern Conference with 116 points, could be due for a drop-off. They opened at over/under 101.5 points.

The Pittsburgh Penguins, the defending Stanley Cup champs, opened at 102.5 — a figure that would place them among the league’s top playoff teams. They compiled 99 points last season.

NHL teams earn two points for a win, no points for a regulation loss, and one point for a loss in overtime or in a shootout.

Hockey bettors represent a loyal but small subset of Nevada sports gamblers. The Nevada Gaming Control Board tracks NHL betting in a category called “other” — encompassing all sports besides the big three of football, basketball and baseball.

Last year bettors in the state risked $131.5 million on those “other” sports including hockey, or about 5 percent of the $2.6 billion wagered in Nevada sports books.

Full article from the Las Vegas Sun here:
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/sep/23/oddsmakers-unmoved-maple-leafs-move-more-scoring/

The Vegas oddsmakers have the Senators forecast over/under at 83.5 points.

A chart which shows the complete rankings, is available by clicking on the link above to the page with the complete article.

For those who are bettors, picking the Sens to finish higher than the Vegas forecast could be, it appears, a profitable proposition.

5th worst in the league? Good, I like to be the underdog.

davetherave wrote:
For those who are bettors, picking the Sens to finish higher than the Vegas forecast could be, it appears, a profitable proposition.

You can bet that the Sens finish higher than 25th? If so, Mel and I will put 200 bucks on it. I'm dead serious.

I think you bet that they finish higher or lower than 83.5 points, not higher than 25th. For your purposes, you'd take the over bet. I'm gonna take a look at the site to see how they work.

spader wrote:I think you bet that they finish higher or lower than 83.5 points, not higher than 25th. For your purposes, you'd take the over bet. I'm gonna take a look at the site to see how they work.

I think if you're wrong they keep your money and if you're right, they call it a "push" and they keep your money.

That can't be right. They wouldn't be in business if that was true.

So what are the odds of them making the post-season? All I can tell from the above is that the odds are against them.

But 83 points seems a tad low. Since Heatley was reduced to a bench-warmer under Clouston (source: Dany Heatley) it's fine to assume that not having him in the lineup this year is no great loss from the team that finished last season on a 105-point pace. Add an improved goaltending situation, more solid defense (come on, let's face it, Karlsson is an upgrade over Bell) and honest-to-goodness secondary scoring (Kovalev, Michalek, Cheechoo) and you've got the recipe for another President's Trophy.

Seriously, though, is this team better or worse than the one that finished 19-10-3 last season? During that stretch Heatley collected 17 goals and 9 assists (yeah, great team-leader there). That's on pace for a 44-23-67 points full season -- that's one point better than Michalek's best year, and 2 points better than Kovalev's previous season (which was seen as a down season for him).

Either one of those two is capable of replacing what Heatley did under Clouston.

Karlsson, as I mentioned before, is a definite upgrade over Bell.

Leclaire/Elliott is a definite upgrade over Auld/Elliott.

Even if you discount Cheechoo and Regin, and do not bank on a rebound year from all of the veterans that unerperformed last year, and do not assume that Foligno and Shannon will continue to improve -- in other words, no sugar coating or rose-colored glasses here -- this is a better ream than the one that played the last 32 games of the season last year.

I'm a homer, I know that, but this is simple analysis. Isn't it?

I don't think they've finalized the live odds for the season futures betting. Because it seems to be -115 american odds across the board for the over under point totals. Which doesn't really make sense...because there has to be an incentive to bet one way or another.

I'm also gonna be monitoring this. If the odds change more favorably, I plan on putting $500 on the Sens finishing higher than 83.5 points.

MurderOnIce wrote:That can't be right. They wouldn't be in business if that was true.

Well, I'd think the NHL is a very, very small part of their business, and the betting on the Senators (a small-market team) has got to be a tiny fraction of that small part.

PKC wrote:I don't think they've finalized the live odds for the season futures betting. Because it seems to be -115 american odds across the board for the over under point totals. Which doesn't really make sense...because there has to be an incentive to bet one way or another.

I'm also gonna be monitoring this. If the odds change more favorably, I plan on putting $500 on the Sens finishing higher than 83.5 points.

Can you guys keep me in mind when you find out? SensGirl and I want to put a couple of hundred on it as well if it ends up like this.

wprager wrote:So what are the odds of them making the post-season? All I can tell from the above is that the odds are against them.

But 83 points seems a tad low. Since Heatley was reduced to a bench-warmer under Clouston (source: Dany Heatley) it's fine to assume that not having him in the lineup this year is no great loss from the team that finished last season on a 105-point pace. Add an improved goaltending situation, more solid defense (come on, let's face it, Karlsson is an upgrade over Bell) and honest-to-goodness secondary scoring (Kovalev, Michalek, Cheechoo) and you've got the recipe for another President's Trophy.

Seriously, though, is this team better or worse than the one that finished 19-10-3 last season? During that stretch Heatley collected 17 goals and 9 assists (yeah, great team-leader there). That's on pace for a 44-23-67 points full season -- that's one point better than Michalek's best year, and 2 points better than Kovalev's previous season (which was seen as a down season for him).

Either one of those two is capable of replacing what Heatley did under Clouston.

Karlsson, as I mentioned before, is a definite upgrade over Bell.

Leclaire/Elliott is a definite upgrade over Auld/Elliott.

Even if you discount Cheechoo and Regin, and do not bank on a rebound year from all of the veterans that unerperformed last year, and do not assume that Foligno and Shannon will continue to improve -- in other words, no sugar coating or rose-colored glasses here -- this is a better ream than the one that played the last 32 games of the season last year.

I'm a homer, I know that, but this is simple analysis. Isn't it?

I'm with you. Every position on the team is better than it was last season IMO.

We lost Heatley, Comrie (meh) and Vermette, granted, but gained Kovalev, Michalek, Cheechoo (meh) and Regin. Also, Foligno's not going to start out with a sophomore slump (it would be a Junior slump if he did) and Shannon's here from the get-go. Spezza seems to have gained a stride or two as well.

We started last season with a Gerber/Auld tandem and we're starting this one with Leclaire/Elliott. Enough said there.

On defence, Lee and Picard are a year older and wiser (hopefully), Jason Smith is not on the roster (I like you, but you're too slow and don't really have any offensive ability), and Karlsson's potentially on the roster, and Campoli's here from the beginning.

And, Clouston's here from the beginning of the season rather than Hartsburg, and it's been made evident that he is the boss. Plus, one more disgruntled egg is out of the room in Heatley.

I know some other teams beneath us have improved as well (Atlanta, Tampa, maybe Toronto) but I don't think we're going to be four spots worse this year.

As is usually the case, however, the only response necessary is to refer to a DGB entry:

http://www.downgoesbrown.com/2009/09/hockey-predictions.html

Definitely one of the best hockey writers out there.

wprager wrote:So what are the odds of them making the post-season? All I can tell from the above is that the odds are against them.

But 83 points seems a tad low.

Seriously, though, is this team better or worse than the one that finished 19-10-3 last season?

I'm a homer, I know that, but this is simple analysis. Isn't it?

If you--The (self-styled) Statsinator--were a Thrashers fan, you'd presumedly be saying Atlanta's 16-9-1 finish could project to them being a playoff team as well.

Vegas is as Vegas does.

If you think the Sens are better, and you're a bettor, this is an opportunity for you to beat the spread.

ottawa at 83 points even though this team has improved itself greatly, from top to bottom, by addition and subtraction, and by subtraction, of course we all know getting rid of Heatley helps this team greatly in the dressing room. Michalek will help the team on the ice, same with Kovalev. Cheechoo I will not give up on either, he will contribute in any way he can. I figure us to be more around the 95 point mark.

Sportnet doesn't feel the love for the Sens either, calling our defense thin, from my perspective, that should be the stronger part of our team, or at least close to it.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2009/09/22/previews_northeast_division/

Atlanta can be a playoff team. They improved greatly over the off season. Their only concern is goaltending.